Stuff I Think, For Now

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- January 31, 2012

2012-01-31T11:42:00.004-06:00

Now that somebody has asked, I guess I should explain by methodology a bit.

Conference auto-bids are based on my best guess as to who is most likely to win the conference tournament if it were played that weekend.

Likewise, at-large bids and seeds are based on what has happened so far. Consider them a snapshot of the standings as of the posting.

So here's this week's bracket. Enjoy:

1	Syracuse	Ohio State	Kentucky	Baylor
16	MVSU/Texas-Arlington	UNC-Asheville/Stony Brook	Norfolk State	Weber State
8	Murray State	Alabama	Southern Miss	West Virginia
9	Iowa State	Memphis	Temple	Minnesota
4	Indiana	Georgetown	Wisconsin	Florida
13	Long Beach State	Oral Roberts	Cincinnati/Miami (FL)	Iona
5	Vanderbilt	Kansas State	Creighton	Florida State
12	BYU	Xavier	MTSU	Wyoming/LaSalle
2	North Carolina	Duke	Kansas	Michigan State
15	Belmont	Nevada	Wagner	Bucknell
7	California	Gonzaga	New Mexico	Wichita State
10	Illinois	Mississippi State	Connecticut	Seton Hall
3	Missouri	UNLV	Virginia	Marquette
14	Davidson	Ohio U	VCU	Cleveland State
6	San Diego State	Louisville	Michigan	St. Mary's
11	St. Louis	Purdue	Harvard	Texas

IN: Miami (FL), LaSalle, Wyoming, Nevada (replaces New Mexico State)
OUT: North Carolina State, Dayton, Northwestern

Biggest Movers: New Mexico (+4), Vanderbilt (+3), West Virginia (-3), Connecticut (-3), Seton Hall (-5)

Top 10 Out: Oklahoma, South Dakota State, Northwestern, Stanford, Arkansas, Drexel, N. C. State, Colorado State, Massachusetts, Washington

By Conference: ACC 5, A-10 4, Big 10 8, Big East 8, Big 12 6, C-USA 2, Missouri Valley 2, Mountain West 4, SEC 5, West Coast 3

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- January 24, 2012

2012-01-24T15:36:00.002-06:00

These will usually come on Tuesdays, or in busy weeks Wednesday.

1	Syracuse	Kentucky	Ohio State	Kansas
16	MVSU/Texas-Arlington	Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville	Norfolk State	Weber State
8	Vanderbilt	Illinois	Gonzaga	California
9	Murray State	Memphis	St. Louis	Mississippi State
4	Kansas State	Indiana	Florida	UNLV
13	Northwestern/N. C. State	Long Beach State	Iona	Oral Roberts
5	Creighton	Virginia	Seton Hall	West Virginia
12	BYU	Cincinnati/Xavier	Texas	Purdue
2	Duke	Missouri	Baylor	Michigan State
15	Belmont	New Mexico State	Wagner	Bucknell
7	Louisville	Michigan	San Diego State	Connecticut
10	Temple	Dayton	Minnesota	Southern Miss
3	Wisconsin	Georgetown	Marquette	North Carolina
14	VCU	Ohio U	Cleveland State	Davidson
6	Alabama	Wichita State	Florida State	Saint Mary's
11	Iowa State	New Mexico	MTSU	Harvard

Ins -- Bucknell (replaces Lehigh), Cincinnati, N. C. State
Outs -- Stanford, Marshall

Biggest Movers -- Florida State (+4), Florida (+3), Connecticut (-3), Illinois (-3), California (-3), BYU (-3), New Mexico (-4)

Top 10 Out -- Wyoming, Northern Iowa, Stanford, South Dakota State, Central Florida, Virginia Tech, LaSalle, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi

By Conference: ACC 5, A-10 4, Big 10 9, Big East 8, Big 12 6, C-USA 2, Missouri Valley 2, Mountain West 3, SEC 5, West Coast 3

Random Nerd Bracketology -- January 18, 2012

2012-01-20T14:57:00.003-06:00

I've decided to make my latest hobby public.

Every week for the last few seasons, I have put together a mock NCAA men's basketball bracket. There's a site called Bracket Project that compares hobbyists like me with the pros. Had I been in the contest last year, I would have finished tied for seventh.

So here goes. I'm supposed to update it every week. We'll see how well that works out.

The date on this bracket was January 18th, 2012:

1	Syracuse	Ohio State	Baylor	Kentucky
16	MVSU/Texas-Arlington	Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville	Norfolk State	Lehigh
8	San Diego State	Wichita State	Vanderbilt	Murray State
9	Stanford	Louisville	BYU	Memphis
4	Alabama	UNLV	Marquette	Connecticut
13	Purdue/Marshall	Oral Roberts	Iona	Long Beach State
5	Illinois	California	Virginia	Wisconsin
12	Harvard	MTSU	Minnesota	Iowa State/Dayton
2	Missouri	Kansas	Michigan State	Duke
15	Cleveland State	Wagner	New Mexico State	Weber State
7	Gonzaga	Florida	New Mexico	West Virginia
10	St. Louis	Northwestern	Florida State	Mississippi State
3	North Carolina	Georgetown	Seton Hall	Indiana
14	Ohio U	Belmont	VCU	Davidson
6	Michigan	St. Mary's	Creighton	Kansas State
11	Southern Miss	Temple	Texas	Xavier

If you want to mock this, go ahead. I'm not bothering with trying to guess game sites or game days. There are plenty of people who do that, and quite frankly I don't find that part nearly as interesting as guessing ins/outs and seed lines.

Top 10 OUT: Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Colorado State, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, N. C. State, LaSalle, Arkansas, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech

Practice for the Jeopardy Test

2012-01-17T14:19:00.001-06:00

Here is a Practice Test for those who want a sample in advance of the real thing.

Click here for the answers. They're in a Spoiler Box in post #3.

Good luck.

1. RHYME TIME Felony committed by a citrus fruit found in the Florida Keys.

2. SPORTS BOOKS This Michael Lewis book made into a movie starring Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill is subtitled “The Art of Winning an Unfair Game.”

3. RIP 2011 This TV actor, best known for his roles on MASH and Dragnet, passed away on December 7.

4. BASIC PHYSICS This simple machine consists of an inclined plane rotated helically around an axis.

5. HISTORIC WOMEN This Vice-Presidential runner-up has received more electoral votes than any other woman.

6. MOVIES Natalie Portman won a Best Actress Oscar for portraying a dancer in this Tchaikovsky ballet.

7. OPERA In the preface to the published libretto of The Flying Dutchman, this composer said, “I shall never write an opera more.”

8. BEFORE & AFTER Flag flown in British Commonwealth countries whose nursery rhyme wife “could eat no lean.”

9. SPORTS TEAMS IN OTHER WORDS The head servant of a household, or the runner-up in the 2010 and 2011 men's NCAA basketball tournaments.

10. STATE CAPITALS Now the largest state capital by population, this was the last city in the 48 contiguous United States to become a state capital.

11. MUSIC “Planetary” artist whose album “Doo-Wops and Hooligans” includes the Grammy-nominated song “Grenade.”

12. NOVELS This Jane Austen novel is a revision of an earlier work called “First Impressions.”

13. HYPHENATED COMPOSERS This Russian's symphonic suite Sheherezade is based on “One Thousand and One Nights.”

14. FOOD This small cruciferous cabbage named for a European capital originated in the cooler climate of northern Europe.

15. THE SUPREME COURT The first case in which this former President wrote the majority opinion dealt with rights of U. S. citizens in overseas territories.

16. REFERENCE BOOKS The name of this type of reference work means “treasury,” not “synonym lizard.”

17. COLORFUL SUPERHEROES Color common to the superhero identities of Oliver Queen, Britt Reid, and Alan Scott.

18. SHAKESPEARE This Italian city was home in one play to Valentine and Petruchio, and in another play to Mercutio and Tybalt.

19. WORLD CAPITALS This European city is the only national capital in the world to completely surround a foreign country.

20. THE LABORS OF HERCULES While this titan fetched the golden apples of the Hesperides, Hercules held the sky on his shoulders.

21. WORLD WAR II “Operation Double Cross” was an attempt to convince the Axis that the Allies would invade Greece instead of this country.

22. POTENT POTABLES Grey Goose and Belvedere are wheat-based brands of this potent potable commonly associated with Russia.

23. “L”-EMENTS Element number three in the periodic table, it got its name from the Greek word for “stone.”

24. WORLD LITERATURE In 2011, “One Piece” became the best-selling series in the history of this 5-letter Japanese literary style.

25. COLLEGES & UNIVERSITIES Of the nine “Colonial colleges” founded before the American Revolution, one of the two that is not part of the Ivy League.

26. CARIBBEAN HISTORY This country, which occupies half of a Caribbean island, was the second Western Hemisphere country to become independent.

27. CHILDREN'S BOOKS In books by Laura Joffe Numeroff, this title animal is taken to the movies, taken to school, and most famously given a cookie.

28. THE INTERNET This online reference site's name combines a Hawaiian word meaning “fast” with a Greek word meaning “to walk.”

29. CROSSWORD CLUES “I” Unimaginable! (It means what you think it means). (13)

30. U. S. CITIES This city is home to both a space center named for Lyndon Johnson and an airport named for George H. W. Bush.

31. CURRENT EVENTS The 2010 suicide of Mohamed Bouazizi, a street vendor in this North African capital, sparked demonstrations that would come to be called the “Arab Spring.”

32. STATE SONGS This song, traditionally sung before the Preakness Stakes, includes the line “Avenge the patriotic gore that flecked the streets of Baltimore.”

33. LANGUAGES Also called azbuka, this writing system named for a ninth century Eastern Orthodox saint became the third official script of the European Union in 2007.

34. SCULPTOR PAINTERS This impressionist painter's most famous sculpture depicts a bronze, fourteen-year-old ballerina.

35. ART ON STAGE “Red,” the 2010 Tony winner for Best Play, tells a story about this Russian-American abstract expressionist.

36. NEONATOLOGY Premature infants are sometimes placed under a bright blue light to treat this yellowing of the skin caused by excess bilirubin.

37. THE 21ST CENTURY BC The Middle Kingdom period of this ancient empire was inaugurated when Mentuhotep II reunited the country.

38. COLORFUL PHRASES This type of telephone directory in which businesses are listed by category is named for the color of paper on which it is typically printed.

39. GOING UP Alphanumeric name eventually given to the mountain originally named for Henry Godwin-Austen, an early explorer of the Karakoram range.

40. UNLIKELY AUTHORS His best-known work is an eight-volume history which begins “Gaul, taken as a whole, is divided into three parts.”

41. I KNOW THE KINGS OF SWEDEN This king, after whom a Minnesota college is named, died in battle during the Thirty Years War.

42. ART “T”ERMS Seven-letter word for a glutenous binder such as egg yolk that mixes with pigment to make paint.

43. THE OLD TESTAMENT The wife of this Old Testament character told him he should “Curse God and die.”

44. THE SOVIET SPACE PROGRAM Invisible from the Earth's surface, this region of a celestial body was first photographed by a Soviet space probe in October, 1959.

45. FLOWERY POEMS Type of flowers that “blow beneath the crosses row on row” in a poem by John McCrae.

46. MUSICAL VOCABULARY Meaning “self-titled,” this was the title of R. E. M.'s first greatest hits album.

47. RIVER MANIA The Mania River flows from the central mountains of this island, the largest in the Indian Ocean.

48. RECENT FICTION Stephen King's 2011 novel 11/22/63 is about a man who travels back in time to try to prevent the death of this man.

49. NUMERICAL WORD ORIGINS This word meaning “uncountable” is a transliteration of the Greek word for ten thousand.

50. FOSSIL FUELS This controversial method of extracting oil or natural gas from a rock formation involves injecting a fluid into the rock until it breaks.

The DoT Matrix -- Use The Force, Luke

2011-11-04T14:59:00.002-05:00

"This is the weapon of a Jeopardy Knight . . . an elegant weapon for a more civilized age."

In February 2011, IBM challenged Jeopardy greats Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter to a match against a supercomputer they named Watson.

To the surprise of many carbon-based lifeforms, Watson won easily. But those of us who have been on the show -- especially those who were part of the practice games Watson played -- know the truth.

Watson had a huge advantage on the buzzer.

On Jeopardy, a player cannot ring in until Alex finishes reading the clue and a coordinator offstage flips a switch powering the podium lights. Hit your button too soon, and your podium is darkened for the first quarter of a second after the others are turned on. Wait too long, and the other player beats you. Finding that moment, that sweet spot, over and over again is not terribly unlike what a Jedi does swatting away battle droid blaster shots.

But with Watson, buzzing early was physically impossible. The mechanism that allowed It to ring in was powered by the same button that activated the lights for Ken and Brad. In other words, they could ring in early, but It couldn't.

That buzzer advantage was more than enough to make up for the huge knowledge deficit The Machine faced.

You see, some Jeopardy players are teeming with knowledge. Others are teeming with midichloreans.

Which brings us to this year's Tournament of Champions.

In the previous post, we figured out a way to estimate how much knowledge a player had during his regular season run. But knowing a lot of answers isn't enough; you have to be able to get i on the buzzer to show what you know. Buzzer proficiency, then, can be calculated by comparing the number of answers the player actually knew with the number of correct answers they gave (not including Daily Doubles).

The formula is as follows:

Buzzer Proficiency = Correct Responses Given / ((Answers Known per 60 clues / 60) * Total clues seen)

So the greatest Buzzer Jedi in this year's TOC is . . . drum roll . . .

Kara Spack. The only woman from the regular season to make the field.

When Kara knew an answer, she got in on the buzzer an amazing 72% of the time. By comparison, at his best Ken Jennings got in two times out of three. (Of course, he also knew 54 answers per game, so there's that.)

What's amazing about that is the theory floating among Jeopardy analysts that says that the reason 12 of the 13 contestants in the year's TOC are men is because Jeopardy is not so much a test of knowledge as it is a video game, which in America gives a cultural advantage to males ages 18-34. As Watson proved, what separates the merely smart from Jeopardy titans is proficiency on the buzzer. Kara's numbers may necessitate a re-thinking of the Video Game Theory as an explanation of the gender gap in TOC contestants.

Of course, for all we know in addition to her Jeopardy prowess Kara may really be the greatest Worlds of Warcraft player ever to walk the Earth. Or The Force may just be strong with this one where it isn't with others.

Either way, Kara looks to be a Force all her own in this year's Tournament.

The rest of the field in Buzzer Proficiency:

Kara 72.2%
Buddy 69.1%
Paul 67.9%
Tom K 62.0%
Roger 57.9%
Joon 57.2%
Jay 54.6%
Christopher 51.5%
John 49.7%
Mark 48.9%
Tom N 48.3%
Justin 45.0%
Brian 41.8%

Notice that nobody gets to the TOC with merely average buzzer ability. Also notice that some players can actually make up for an information gap by being good with the buzzer (a la Bob Harris). But the players that are most to be feared going forward are those who are both exceptional in their knowledge base and able to wield their Weapon with skill and precision.

Before long I half expect Roger to start shooting lightning out of his fingers.

NEXT: Degree of Difficulty -- What the BCS can teach us about Jeopardy tournaments

The DoT Matrix -- What's Makes for a Good Player?

2011-11-03T11:00:00.003-05:00

Note: The Tournament of Champions started last night. There was a mix-up with the DVD, so I haven't seen the episode yet, but from what I've read the numbers I'm about to throw at you stood up pretty well for one game. We'll see how they do against actual tournament results.

The Jeopardy Tournament of Champions is a two-week tournament during which the thirteen player with the most wins during the regular season return to Culver City to crown a season-long champion. The winner takes home $250,000 and -- perhaps more importantly -- glory.

Predicting a winner has always proven difficult, since so much of the outcome depends on factors that are essentially random (or at least beyond the player's control). Player match-ups, which players see which boards, how they're feeling that day, other players' luck. all factor into determining a winner.

But while there are obstacles to prediction, there are numbers available to help us determine going in which players will need to catch the most breaks to win, and which ones have the tools to make a deep run (mostly) regardless of luck.

Aside from random chance, there are four factors that determine Jeopardy success. In no particular order, you have to 1) know stuff, 2) be good at buzzing, 3) be able to handle difficult material, and 4) know how to wager.

Smarter people than me have hashed out most of what you'd want to know about #4, and I suspect most TOC-level players have spent at least some time playing with the J-Archive wagering calculator. So I'll just look at the first three in the next few posts.

Factor #1 -- Know Stuff

How much does a given Jeopardy player know? We've already established back in Post #1 the baseline level for an average player: 35.56 clues per 60 revealed. But TOC players are anything but average. You don't get to the TOC unless you excel in one or more of the Four Factors. Luck is a big part of the game, but it can't turn a lump of coal into Watson.

So to find out how much a given Jeopardy champ knows, we ask the same questions we asked in Establishing a Baseline. How many Triple Stumpers were there in games involving this champ? And how does that compare with games involving three "average" players? In essence, we want to know how much better the group did as a result of having this player on the "team."

At this point, I have to point out that coming up with useful numbers requires a much larger sample size than just one game. For the purposes of the DoT Matrix, I am only assessing players who saw at least five games worth of material and played against at least ten opponents. That means the DoT Matrix cannot tell us who was the best player to lose to Ken Jennings (much as I might like to know where I rank in that list).

First we use the average knowledge level to determine what percentage of clues an average player can't answer. Our sample gives us a number ("team average," or TA) around 40%. Then we make the same calculation for games involving a given champion. For instance, a 5+-day champ might reduce the "team" average from 40% to 30% (let's call this CA, for "champ average). We then figure out how much credit to give to the champion for the improvement in team performance, as follows:

Answers known per 60 clues faced = (1 - (CA ^ 3 / TA ^ 2) ) * 60

In our example, a champ that posts a CA of 30% in an environment that typically yields a TA of 40% probably knows 50 answers per 60 clues.

So how does this year's field stack up? Here are the rankings based solely on knowledge displayed in regular season play:

Roger 51.85
Joon 50.28
Mark 50.24
Tom K 49.26
Justin 47.19
Jay 44.84
John 43.92
Christopher 43.01
Tom N 41.98
Brian 41.19
Kara 33.36
Buddy 32.31
Paul 31.97

Notice that Erin and Charles aren't in these rankings because they only played 4 games, and both were tournament champions facing specially-written tournament clues. Also, curiously, the TOC alternate Sara would have been fifth in these rankings (48.97) if she were in the field.

But like on GI Joe, knowing is only half the battle.

NEXT: The Force is Strong with This One -- Assessing the Battle of the Buzzers

The DoT Matrix -- What's a Right Answer Worth?

2011-11-02T15:17:00.004-05:00

The short answer: it depends on how good you are with the buzzer.

So, for our purposes, let's make another assumption.

Unless one of the players on the stage is destined for 4 or more wins, assume that your buzzer skills are up against two average players. Also, assume that your buzzer skills are average.

Now then, once we have calculated how likely an average player is to attempt a buzz on a given level of clue (see previous post), we can calculate the clam rate, which we'll call CR. Against two players, one of three possibilities exists -- either both will try to buzz, one will buzz and the other won't, or both will clam.

If both clam, your Buzz Chance is 100%. If one hits the buzzer, your chances are 50%. If both go for it, your chances drop to 33 1/3 %.

So to calculate your chances of buzzing in on a given clue against 2 average players, the formula is:

CR ^ 2 + (CR * (1 - CR)) + ((1 - CR) ^ 2) / 3

To determine the value of knowing an answer, then, figure out how often you would buzz in successfully and multiply by the value of the clue. (A $200 clue you can buzz in on 60% of the time would be worth $120.)

Note that a wrong answer would only cost you the expected value, rather than the full value, because somebody might beat your wrong answer to the buzzer with a right one, saving you both the points and the shame. *cough* It's his wedding *cough*

So, abiding by standard Coryat rules (only credit what you know by the time Alex finishes reading, non-guesses are worth 0, Daily Doubles are a special case), you can compare your score to the on-screen players by assigning the following values (rounded to the nearest 10):

SINGLE JEOPARDY

Clue Value CR DoT Matrix Value
200 27% 90
400 32% 190
600 36% 300
800 39% 410
1000 48% 570

DOUBLE JEOPARDY

Clue Value CR DoT Matrix Value
400 29% 180
800 40% 440
1200 45% 670
1600 46% 930
2000 54% 1,220

What To Do About Daily Doubles

When I use these numbers at home, I round to the nearest hundred. That way I can pause the DVD and figure out Daily Double wagers based on what I think I would have at that point of the game. There are two rules for determining whether i get to make a DD wager. 1) I had to answer the previous question correctly and 2) I have to win a coin flip (since I figure my chances of being in control of the board when a DD is revealed are right around 50-50 if I knew the previous response). If I'm playing a DD I make a wager base don my score. If not, I ignore the clue.

Note that some folks recommend for those preparing to go on the show to ignore Daily Doubles altogether (or at least treat them like a regular clue). I tend to agree -- if your purpose in keeping score and tracking data is to prepare for The Show itself. But if you've already been on The Show, or if you're just playing along for fun and you don't anticipate using this data later, having realistic numbers on which to base DD wagers can add something to watching the game. Plus, even if you are preparing for The Show, it can give you a sense of what Daily Double wagering feels like.

And yes, I know, some DD wagers are scenario-based and not score-based. When those situations arise, I calculate the difference between my DoT Matrix score and the score of the player on TV, mentally adjust the other two players equally up (or down) accordingly, and decide on a wager.

NEXT: Assessing the field for the Tournament of Champions

The DoT Matrix -- Establishing a Baseline

2011-11-01T12:19:00.003-05:00

So I've gone and done it.

A while back Ken Jennings posited in an interview that "Most Jeopardy players know most of the answers." So I decided to put that to the test.

Assume with me, if you will, that:

Some games are harder than others, but over the course of a five game stretch, the difficulty level of the clues will pretty much average out.
Some players are better than others, but the average skill level of a group of challengers is pretty consistent from one week to the next.

If we grant those assumptions, we can begin to construct a profile for an "average" Jeopardy player by analyzing how often clues go unanswered by all three.

If the probability of a given player not knowing the response to a clue is X, the probability of all 3 in a given game not knowing the correct response is X ^ 3.

So step one in building the DoT Matrix was to find out if Cube Rule is correct. I randomly selected 45 games from the last 3 seasons, where none of the players would eventually win 4 or more games. I then counted "Triple Stumpers" -- unanswered clues -- in each row of the game board.

I did not consider Daily Doubles, since their placement is essentially random and since only one player has an opportunity to respond to them.

The Triple Stumper Rate, or TSR, is our X ^ 3. So the cube root of the TSR is the probability that an average Jeopardy player will not attempt a buzz. 1 - X, then, is our Buzz Rate.

The problem we have at this point is the fact that lack of knowledge is not evenly distributed through the Jeopardy player pool. There are some clues so badly written that nobody is going to get them, and there are other clues in subjects so obscure that very few Jeopardy players ever consider learning them for the show.

I wrote one such category for an SHC a while back about Lawn Mowers. Never again.

But how far do those distribution irregularities skew the players' performance? Quite a bit, as it turns out. I tested the Cube Root Hypothesis against performance in Final Jeopardy -- the only clue inthe game that everybody gets a chance to respond to. If the Cube Root Hypothesis is correct, the correct response rate in Final Jeopardy should be roughly equal to the cube root of TSR.

Spoiler alert: It's not. In fact, the Cube Root Hypothesis underestimates the knowledge level of an average Jeopardy player by about 20%. Which means that if the Cube Root Hypothesis says that a typical Jeopardy player should only know 30 responses per game, he probably knows closer to 36.

So adjusting for CRH error, we find that the typical Jeopardy player will have a correct answer and attempt to buzz 35.56 times on every 60 clues he sees.

So if you've ever wondered how you compare to the players you see every night on your TV, there you go.

NEXT: Using Buzz Probabilities and Coryat Rules to calculate a score for yourself as you play along at home.

On this Day In History

2011-04-12T18:18:00.002-05:00

1606 -- James I combines the flags of England and Scotland into what later came to be called the "Union Jack." In 1707 it would become the official flag of Great Britain.

1633 -- The Inquisition begins against Galileo.

1772 -- Henry Clay is born.

1861 -- Confederate forces bombard Fort Sumter. If their aim had been better, there might have been no baseball.

1945 -- FDR complains of a "terrible headache" before lapsing into a coma and dying.

1947 -- Tom Clancy, David Letterman, and Dan Lauria (the dad from The Wonder Years) are born.

1961 -- Yuri Gagarin becomes the first human being to orbit the Earth.

1981 -- STS-1 Columbia, the first ever space shuttle launch.

1992 -- Euro Disney opens.

And in 1974, four days after Hank Aaron broke Babe Ruth's home run record, I came along.

Bracket Guess, 2011

2011-03-13T13:29:00.002-05:00

Here's my guess. I'm not actually very good at this, compared to other on the Internet, but it's fun to speculate.

1 -- Ohio State
16 -- Alabama State/UNC-Asheville
8 -- Villanova
9 -- Old Dominion
4 -- Connecticut
13 -- Princeton
5 -- Arizona
12 -- Clemson/Colorado
2 -- Texas
15 -- Long Island
7 -- Xavier
10 -- Gonzaga
3 -- BYU
14 -- Wofford
6 -- Cincinnati
11 -- Georgia

1 -- Kansas
16 -- Texas-San Antonio/Arkansas-Little Rock
8 -- Washington
9 -- Marquette
4 -- Wisconsin
13 -- Indiana State
5 -- St. John's
12 -- Memphis
2 -- San Diego State
15 -- St. Peter's
7 -- Utah State
10 -- George Mason
3 -- Syracuse
14 -- Bucknell
6 -- Vanderbilt
11 -- Michigan State

1 -- Pittsburgh
16 -- Hampton
8 -- Missouri
9 -- Michigan
4 -- Loser of Florida/Kentucky
13 -- Oakland
5 -- West Virginia
12 -- Virginia/Penn State
2 -- North Carolina
15 -- Northern Colorado
7 -- UNLV
10 -- Butler
3 -- Purdue
14 -- Akron
6 -- Texas A&M
11 -- Richmond

1 -- Duke
16 -- Boston U
8 -- Temple
9 -- Tennessee
4 -- Louisville
13 -- Belmont
5 -- Kansas State
12 -- St. Mary's
2 -- Notre Dame
15 -- UC-Santa Barbara
7 -- UCLA
10 -- Florida State
3 -- Florida/Kentucky winner
14 -- Morehead State
6 -- Georgetown
11 -- Illinois

The Moment

2010-12-10T16:01:00.002-06:00

This is my entry in midmajority.com's "The Moment" writing contest. The challenge was to describe a moment that happened on a basketball court that affected your life. Mine has been selected as a finalist. Vote for "Lipscomb" here. Thanks.

* * *

The most remarkable basketball-related Moment in my life was noteworthy only in how mundane it was.

The play itself was as nondescript as it gets. Jacob Arnett dribbles to the right wing and passes to a curling Josh Slater at the top of the arc. Slater fires, draining a 3-pointer with four seconds to go before halftime and cutting Mercer's lead over Lipscomb to 36-32. The shot accounted for three of Slater's twelve points that night, the assist one of Arnett's three.

And yes, I had to go back and look at the stat sheet on the Lipscomb website a few minutes ago to get all the details right.

For Erica, that extra step would not have been necessary. She just knows.

If you saw the game on pixelvision, you might have seen Erica. She is the little girl in the yellow sweatshirt and purple pants about 15 rows up from the Mercer bench. You might not have noticed her much, though, because for the first twenty minutes of the game she sat almost perfectly still.

That's right. She's seven years old, and she Did. Not. Move.

Typically, that kind of rapt attention is reserved for Star Wars and Fetch with Ruff Ruffman. And, apparently, Lipscomb basketball. Otherwise, she is your typical, active, loud little girl. She likes to run around, play with her sister, tell stories, and when she's not reading books generally make as much noise as she can for as long as she can.

It wasn't until later that I realized how big an impact that shot had on that little girl. You see, I was in Allen Arena to watch Lipscomb win a championship. Jacksonville had lost earlier that day, meaning Lipscomb would win the A-Sun regular-season title with a win. And at halftime, Lipscomb was down 4 to a Mercer squad missing its all-everything big man. If James Florence woke up in the second half, or if Adnan Hodzic didn't, the Bisons were in trouble.

I was worried about the outcome. Erica was enjoying The Moment.

But one random Thursday morning in late March, I walked into the kitchen and overheard Erica talking to her twin sister Katie around the breakfast table. “And then Jacob Arnett looked up and saw Josh Slater coming around and he passed it and Josh Slater shot it and it went in and Mercer was only ahead by 4!”

Since it was morning, I have no idea what the context of that sentence was. I did remember the game, since it was one of the two we got to attend last year. I remembered that Adnan went off in the second half (upon further review, 21 and 11 after Slater's shot). I remembered Lipscomb cutting down the nets after the game. I also remembered the conference tournament loss to Kennesaw State and the not getting invited to the NIT and the fact that Lipscomb only wins 27% of the time when both teams lead in the last 4 minutes.

But for a second there, in our kitchen, Erica and I had a Moment.

The fact that the Moment revolved around a basketball team that had ultimately disappointed me didn't matter. Because our Moment wasn't about me being a fan, but a Dad. Our Moment was a memory my little girl could carry with her a month later, and I was there when it happened, enjoying it right alongside her. Our Moment may look to outsiders like just another shot in just another game, but that's okay. What's important is not what makes up the Moment, but the fact that it is Ours.

The big life lesson? What my children need from me is not a storehouse of objects, a privileged position in the world, or a lifetime of ease, comfort, and safety. It's a Moment. Then another. Then another one after that.

And if basketball can help make that happen, then so much the better.

The Big Bang Myth

2010-07-27T14:05:00.003-05:00

There's a lot to enjoy about the Big Bang Theory, and a lot to question about both its premise and its execution.

Yes, I'm talking about the TV show. I really hope you didn't click here in hopes of hearing a cogent discussion of cosmological theory. Seriously.

Anyway, when the TV show debuted on CBS three years ago, it was fun to watch. I could identify with the characters (a little too much, sometimes), relate to their situations, and even get a lot of the "inside jokes." I disagree with Sheldon's take on Babylon V, but Spock's Brain really is the measuring stick by which all other sci-fi terribleness is judged.

(For the uninitiated, "Spock's Brain" - "Star Trek 5" is the "less filling/tastes great" of Trekdom.)

But is The Big Bang Theory really about nerds? Or is about how the cool kids imagine nerds to be? Several incidents, especially in Season 3, lead me to believe it's the latter.

Nerd Myth #1 -- On the show, the four nerds are inseparable. They do everything together, because if they didn't have each other, they wouldn't have anybody, and that would just be bad.

Truth -- Real nerds don't travel in packs. In the wild, groups of nerds are about as common as multiple-birth pregnancies. Twins are uncommon but not rare. Triplets take you aback for a second. Quadruplets get mentioned on the news. And if you have five or more, somebody is going to make an amusement park out of your house.

Corollary truth -- Most nerds are happier alone or maybe with one other friend. "Not having anybody" isn't a calamity to be avoided, but for many nerds a welcome respite from the chaos.

Nerd Myth #2 -- Nerds in Big Bang land handle the end of relationships relatively well. "Serial monogamy" is the norm, while the occasional one-night stand isn't out of the question.

Truth -- Really? Nerds NEVER instigate the end of a relationship. They do end, of course, but usually it's because the other person chooses to end it. And when the relationship does end, nerds tend to go into a depressive funk of self-loathing that would make a Scottish Presbyterian want to bake them a pie or something.

Corollary Truth -- Most nerds would rather have a relationship with the opposite sex than even Luke Skywalker's Lightsaber. Or the Ring of Power. Or Data's head. In other words, rare, precious, and NOT disposable.

Nerd Myth #3 -- The more we get to know the Big Bang nerds, the better we like them.

Truth -- Getting to know a nerd is like peeling an onion. You might enjoy the smell at first, but eventually he's going to inadvertently shoot acid into your eye. Even then, you might decide that the relationship might be worth the effort, but either way it's safe to assume that you're going to end up crying.

In short, Will Rogers never met a real nerd.

Corollary truth -- Nerds are fiercely loyal (see Myth #2), so when they do make you cry they'll have no idea what's wrong. They'll simply assume they have done something terrible and shrink back into their lair, and unless you go in after them you're unlikely to ever see them again. If a real nerd really likes you, he'd rather live without you than hurt you again.

Yes, I know it's just a TV show. And no, I don't suppose it's fair to expect somebody who spent his whole career on the popular side of his social world to really understand what it's like over here. I just hope that folks watching the TV show understand that the characters are nothing like anything you'd see in the real world.

These nerds are smart, beautiful, and completely imaginary.

You Are Not A Nerd

2010-07-07T11:05:00.000-05:00

You are not a nerd.

No, you're not.

Seriously.

Quit pretending. And quit living in that fantasy world where high school was just so hard and you just couldn't fit in and you tried so hard to be accepted. Compared to actual dorks, you were the prom queen. I'm looking at you, former cheerleader/athlete/oboe player/class president who, now that the Geek Chic era has dawned, can only talk to your friends about those three Friday nights in four years you spent alone. I've seen the yearbooks. I've seen your name and face on every other page. And what's more, I remember everything you did to be accepted.

And you know what? It worked. While the real nerds watched in envious awe, you ran in any social circle you chose. People came to you, because being close to you made them cool. You were accepted then, and you are accepted now. Even today, when the only socially acceptable memories are complaining about how nobody ever liked you, the reality is you are now, and have always been, cool.

And that's fine, if that's what you want. Be cool. Be popular. Have lots of friends. Be who you are.

Just don't call yourself a nerd, a geek, a dork, or any of the other pejoratives you used to heap onto the heads of those of us who earned the names and the accompanying wedgies and swirlies. Because if you've never seen the inside of a locker with the door closed, you are not now, nor have you ever been, nor will you ever be, a nerd.

Quit trying to pretend to be one of us.

I don't really expect you to understand, nor even much care, but before the days of Facebook and the Big Bang Theory and the red carpet at ComiCon, being a geek came at a price. True nerd-dom is formed at an early age, and is not so much chosen as it is imposed. There were dues to be paid, hardships to be endured, and if you were one of the lucky dorks who had a friend or two to suffer with you, those friendships last to this day.

But just so you know, there is a difference. Real nerds can tell. We know the difference between those of you who had an actual date to your senior prom and those of us who had to build our prom date out of parts from Radio Shack. We can tell if you played on your high school baseball team or simply sat on the end of the bench keeping stats and stealing the other team's signs. We can see it if you watched Molly Ringwald movies and dressed like Debbie Gibson and listened to New Kids on the Block and did all those individualistic rebellious things that every other kid your age was doing.

We know, because deep down inside we wanted to be you. But for whatever reason – call it social ineptitude or dignity or whatever you want – we just couldn't manage it. And for that failure, we were made to pay.

So we learned early on that for us, caring what other people think was a one-way ticket head first into the nearest garbage can. Indifference, then, became a survival trait. If every emotional investment in the feelings of others produced pain for us, we simply quit. We learned how to not care what you think of our clothes, our music, our movies. We point at you and laugh as you desperately try to make a name for yourself on Survivor or American Idol or – toll the bell – Jersey Shore. We realize that “normal” in America is broke, stupid, and starved for emotional validation, and we smile, because in our nerdy pursuits of satisfying, meaningful work, genuine comradeship forged in shared hardship, and inner-directed self-esteem, we have everything you want – money, power, intelligence, and friendships that endure.

And right now, we're just loving the fact that suddenly you want to be one of us.

So go on pretending, if you like. If imagining a life you never actually lived is what you need to do to make yourself believe you “fit in,” I don't suppose I can stop you. So go ahead. Buy that Stormtrooper costume or those Vulcan ears. Watch that Babylon V boxed set, or Season 3 of Stargate Atlantis. Just know that the world you're trying to “fit in” with is one where you're the alien.

You don't belong here.

And when the time comes for you to move on to the Next Big Thing and leave us to our fantasy worlds and crossword puzzles and fake Hobbit feet, we won't miss you. We don't need the glare of the camera and the corporate sponsorship and the TV ratings and the societal acceptance to do what we do. We didn't need it before, and when the time comes we and our real friends will go right back into our basements and garages and never give you a second thought.

Because we're nerds. And you're not.

Why Prison Ministry?

2010-06-11T01:59:00.001-05:00

The safest place in the world is behind the walls of a prison.

My first visit to a jail came when I was 20 years old. I really had no business even being there. My head an Ewok-and-a-half off the ground, my body a little on the large side for a jockey, and my personality as dorky as the day is long back before the Geek Chic era, all rational sense told me I was in the wrong place. After all, what could a law-abiding, baseball-card-collecting, crossword-puzzle-creating college nerd have in common with people who spent their days and nights behind bars? What would we talk about? “Hey, did you get 38 down in yesterdays LA Times? And how about the bet the guy made in Final Jeopardy last night? What was he thinking?”

But when I walked into CCA-Nashville that Sunday night back in 1994, I wasn't following my intellect or even my conscience. I didn't feel particularly duty-bound to visit people in prison (after all, Matthew 25 is a menu, not a checklist, right?). I had nothing in particular to say; to that point my life story was anything but remarkable and my oratorical talent was, shall we say, raw.

That Sunday night I was following my heart, which at the time was securely in the possession of the 21-year-old blond sitting next to me. She had been involved in jail and prison ministry for several years and wanted me to try it once.

The things we guys will do for a girl.

Anyway, when the guard opened the outside door it was time to go back and see the guys. The girl wouldn't be with me, as it turns out; this facility had separate services for men and women at the same time, so Laura went back into the women's pods and I went with Harold, Harold, and Harold – their real names, by the way – to the chapel. The Harolds were going about the business of setting up a jail service, distributing song books, showing the communion trays to the guards, sorting through prayer request cards and correspondence courses, waiting for the guys to come in.

I, meanwhile, was trying to disappear.

Since the door to the chapel was at the back of the room, I took a seat on the front row next to the wall. One of the first inmates through the door was, physically speaking, everything I wasn't. Standing 6-foot-6 and probably weighing in the neighborhood of 400 pounds, he was the picture of everything I had imagined a prison inmate to be. Which is to say, big. Scary big.

I started to get out of my seat to join the handshake line when he spotted me. I put on my “Try to look friendly even though deep down I think I'm probably going to die” face and shook his hand. Excitedly, he shook my hand and took a seat on the front row. He seemed genuinely excited to be there, and especially happy that I was there too.

Uh oh.

After the handshakes, I reclaimed my seat and resumed my futile efforts to dissolve into the wall. I too was sitting on the front row, next to this behemoth of a man whose name I still can't recall sixteen years later as I write this. Sensing my unease, my new seatmate decided to try to help.

“This is your first jail service, isn't it?” he asked.

I nodded.

“You nervous?”

“Yeah,” I squeaked, wondering if the giveaway was the clammy skin, the shallow breathing, the paleness of my face, or the thin line of sweat forming on my forehead.

“Well don't worry about it,” he told me. “If anybody wants to get to you, they have to get through me.”

Now I've never been one to pick up on the finer points of human psychology, or to possess any real instincts that would help me understand why people do what they do and under what circumstances they might find themselves wearing an orange jumpsuit in a medium-security incarceration facility. But I did have at least a rudimentary knowledge of physics. And since I had serious doubts that my Toyota Corolla would be able to “get through” this guy, I figured that anybody else who wanted to make trouble for me faced long odds indeed.

My mind at ease, and my body's flight response dimmed from “incandescent terror” to “not quite comfortable but probably not going to die in the next few minutes,” I took in the rest of the service. I helped pass the Lord's Supper trays. There were six responses to the sermon, including one request for baptism (I found out later that these are fairly typical response numbers for a room with 35 men.). As the Harolds packed up our supplies and the last of the inmates left the chapel, my new really large friend said, “I hope we see you again.”

“I hope so, too,” I replied.

At the time, I had no idea why I said that, but reflecting on the conversation later I realized that the sense of comfort and safety I felt as I was leaving CCA-Nashville didn't really have much to do with merely surviving the night. Facing a ministry career that would probably be defined by what I could or could not do, in prison work I had found a way to share the grace of God with people who needed it just by showing up. The fact that I was willing to be there, that I cared enough to take time for them, that I was willing to set aside my prejudices and fears long enough to be a presence in their lives – that by itself was genuine ministry. I didn't have to prove I belonged. It didn't matter what level of talent or skill or personal charisma I brought with me into the facility. What mattered was that I was there.

That night, I felt like I belonged in jail.

In the last sixteen years, I have bounced in and out of pulpits all over the country. I have gone to grad school, spent a year working with the homeless, displayed my talents (or usually the lack thereof) before audiences large and small. I have had the privilege of being midwife to roughly 300 new births into Christ, most of them in correctional facilities. I even got to spend a year helping one of the Harolds (along with his wife Helen and Federal Prison Outreach Ministry director Ron Goodman) run their Madison prison ministry office.

But everywhere I've gone, I've tried – with varying degrees of success – to be involved in ministry to the incarcerated. I don't go back over and over again because the work is easy; I've learned that there are times when jail work is genuinely difficult. Nor have I ever felt particularly duty-bound; there are souls to be saved everywhere you go, not just behind bars. I keep going into jails and prisons because people need to experience God's grace, mercy, and forgiveness. They need love to be based not on what is in their past or what they might have to offer in the future, but on our shared humanity and potential eternity of fellowship in heaven. Most of all, they need to know that no matter their surroundings, real security – real safety – is available in Jesus.

And so do I.

P. S. – About the girl. She'd have me tell you she's not blond anymore. This week we celebrated our fourteenth wedding anniversary with a trip to the National Jail & Prison Ministry Workshop in Huntsville, Alabama. And yes, when the Star Wars exhibit at the Space and Rocket Center opens later this summer, we'll be back. Still dorky after all these years.

My Bracket Guess, 2010

2010-03-14T15:27:00.002-05:00

Because I can, that's why.

Also to have a time-stamped record of what I thought and when.

Here goes:

1 Kansas
16 Winthrop/UAPB (Notorious PIG)
8 Marquette
9 Richmond
4 BYU
13 Sam Houston State
5 Butler
12 Wake Forest
2 Villanova
15 Morgan State
7 Clemson
10 UTEP
3 Wisconsin
14 Oakland
6 Vanderbilt
11 Minnesota

1 Duke
16 Robert Morris
8 St. Mary's
9 Washington
4 Texas A&M
13 New Mexico State
5 New Mexico
12 Notre Dame
2 Ohio State
15 UCSB
7 Northern Iowa
10 Utah State
3 Georgetown
14 Montana
6 Texas
11 Siena

1 Syracuse
16 Lehigh
8 Missouri
9 Georgia Tech
4 Purdue
13 Murray State
5 Tennessee
12 UNLV
2 Kansas State
15 North Texas
7 California
10 Gonzaga
3 Maryland
14 Ohio
6 Xavier
11 Louisville

1 Kentucky
16 ETSU
8 Oklahoma State
9 San Diego State
4 Temple
13 Wofford
5 Pittsburgh
12 Virginia Tech
2 West Virginia
15 Vermont
7 Florida State
10 Old Dominion
3 Baylor
14 Houston
6 Michigan State
11 Cornell

There. Feel free to laugh at me in an hour and a half or so.

Go, Speed Racer, Go!

2009-11-12T15:32:00.000-06:00

Click ahead to Picture #75 and #76.

Tomorrow Is The Big Day

2009-11-06T16:13:00.002-06:00

The Clarksville Half-Marathon is tomorrow. I drove the course on my way home from packet pick-up. There are a few more hills than advertised, but not bad for the central part of Tennessee. I expect to take around 2 hours ad 45 minutes. I'll report back how it turns out.

World Series MVP?

2009-11-05T12:57:00.002-06:00

Last night Hideki Matsui was named MVP of the 2009 World Series. And while 6 RBI in the clinching game is impressive, I think the voters kicked the call.

World Series' are defined by big moments. That's when memories are made, stories are told. And in the biggest moments of this year's Series, nobody came up bigger than . . .

Alex Rodriguez.

You heard me. Mr. Purple Lipstick, Mr. Lied to Katie Couric, Mr. Steroid Cheat Himself. When you look at the raw numbers, nobody contributed more to the Yankees' victory than Alex Rodriguez. In the big moments, he made the big plays.

Game 5, 1st Inning, 2 outs. Johnny Damon on first, Rodriguez doubles him home off Cliff Lee. Yankees lead 1-0 and nearly go on to a big inning. That hit was rated by Fangraphs.com as the 11th most important offensive play for the Yankees in the Series.

Game 3 4th Inning, 1 out, 1 on, Yankees trail 3-0. A-Rod goes deep off Cole Hamels, cutting the lead to 1 and sparking a comeback that woudl ultimately end with the Yankees winning 8-5. The home run was the 4th biggest play of the Series according to Fangraphs.

The number 1 play in the Series? 9th inning, Game 4. Game tied, runners at the corners. A-Rod facing Brad Lidge. Fangraphs gives this play a Leverage Index of 5 (very few games ever see a Leverage index higher than 2 or 2 1/2). Rodriguez doubles to the gap in left center, driving in Johnny Damon and setting up Jorge Posada to knock home two insurance runs with (oh, by the way) Mariano Rivera coming in to pitch the 9th. Yankees win, go up 3-1, and cruise to title #27.

With the Series on the line, A-Rod came through three times. M, V, and P.

Game 7?

2009-11-04T10:59:00.002-06:00

I would love to see a Game 7 in this year's World Series. But for that to happen, Pedro Martinez has to win tonight.

Is it worth it? I'm just not sure . . .

Yards and Yards

2009-10-06T17:51:00.001-05:00

Yesterday, I overheard Erica & Katie singing "Yards and Yards of Yellow Yarn."

Ah, Electric Company. Good times -- a very long time ago.

Summer Schedule Shortened (Again)

2009-09-30T18:42:00.003-05:00

Todd County schools are out for the rest of this week because of flu, then all of next week for Fall Break. of course, those four days will have to be made up. And of course, they will be tacked on to the end of the school year.

A "regular" summer vacation generally only runs 60 days. Knock a week off that total for the flu, and that leaves 7 1/2 weeks for Gospel Meeting, VBS, and camp, plus everybody's family vacations.

If it snows at all this winter, that'll be even more days.

I hope our public schoolers enjoy this unscheduled vacation, because come summer there won't be much left.

Back in the Bloggity

2009-09-23T12:49:00.002-05:00

Now that the SHC and park soccer season is behind me, I can get back here more often. No promises, but still.

The half-marathon training is still going. Today I did 5 miles in 1:06:21.5. Not exactly blazing speed, but I guess it'll do for now. My next goal is to get my five-mile time under 1 hour.

I ran in the Elkton 5K on Saturday, finishing in 37:39, good for second in the 35-39 age group.

Two. Why do you ask?

I'm finding that distance running is not so much about physical endurance or stamina as it is about will. The physical slog is one thing, but for me the mental side is what's really hard. By November 7, I need the mental and emotional stamina to put up with running pain for 2 1/2 to 3 hours. Today I was able to sustain race pace for right at 30 minutes.

I'm also finding that a mixture of hard running and recovery walking works much better for me than straight jogging. That's probably a soccer thing; center refereeing requires more "sprint and stop" than "steady run." I don't know if that's what the professional trainers recommend, but it works for me, so there you go.

Way To Go, NCAA. You've Done It Again

2009-08-14T16:55:00.001-05:00

You have got to be kidding me.

The NCAA gets publicly embarrassed by USC and Memphis, so they bring the hammer down on Southeast Missouri State?

Really?

This is starting to get ridiculous.

Offside or not offside?

2009-08-07T17:13:00.002-05:00

So, soccer fans, here's a quiz on soccer's most misunderstood rule.

Correct answers are in white, so drag your mouse to see them.

1. Player A9 is standing next to the goalie, completely behind the defense. Player A4 shoots. Ball goes in. Ruling: Not offside. Flag down. Goal is good. The player in the offside position wasn't involved in the play.

2. Same scenario as above, but player A4's shot bounces off the post to player A9, who puts it in. Ruling: Offside. A ball off the post, or the referee, or a bump in the ground has the same effect as a direct pass.

3. Same scenario as above, but this time the shot ricochet's off the goalie instead of the post. Ruling: Offside. If the goalie got control of the ball and played it to the offensive player, that's one thing. If, as in this case, "the ball played him," the force of the play came from an offensive teammate. Offside.

4. Same scenario as 2 & 3, only this time the shooter was closer to the goal line than his teammate (a 2-on-1 against the goalie). Ruling: Not offside. When the ball was struck, the second attacking player was behind the ball.

5. On a long clearing ball, two offensive players give chase. One was in an offside position when the ball was kicked. The other wasn't.

Do you rule offside? -- That depends. If the offside player plays the ball before his teammate plays it legally, the flag goes up.

When do you decide? -- Wait until you see the outcome of the play. Give the legal player every chance to make a legal play. If his offside teammate beats him to the ball, flag up.

If it turns out to be offside, where is the restart? -- The spot of an offside infraction is where the offending player involved himself with the play, NOT NECESSARILY where the last field defender was standing. If you find yourself in this spot, go ahead and run with the play, since the position of the defense is immaterial.

If you're nice, I might put some more up later.

Exciting Night Tonight

2009-07-28T15:50:00.002-05:00

Tonight I get to throw out the first pitch at the Bowling Green Hot Rods game.

My Three Meetings with Don Meyer

2009-07-20T21:56:00.002-05:00

Last week, former Lipscomb basketball coach Don Meyer was given the Jim Valvano Courage Award by ESPN. Coach Meyer recovered from a pre-season car crash and cancer diagnosis to lead the Northern State Wolves to an 18-win season. Win #11 was Coach Meyer's 903rd, one more than Bob Knight's all-time men's college basketball record of 902.

MomofTwins went to school with two of the Meyer daughters, Brooke & Brittney, so she knows the family better than I do. I only met Coach Meyer three times during my time at Lipscomb. If he remembers any of them I'd be surprised, but then again the capacity of Lipscomb Nation to remember its own never ceases to amaze me.

The first time I met Coach Meyer I was a new kid on campus. I had just transferred from Harding (long story), and had some ideas about how some of what Harding did with its intramurals could be used at Lipscomb. They had just hired a new Intramural director, Scott Grissom, so I dropped by his office to talk. Before long, Scott introduced me to his boss, Andy Lane (another great guy with a prodigous memory for names and faces. My first time on campus in five years was a basketball game this February. Andy Lane saw me, said hello, and asked about my kids by name. Dude.) Anyway, we talked in Andy's office for a few minutes and before long he's taking me around the athletic department introducing me to the folks who work there. Sherry Phillips I knew from church, but everybody else was new to me. On top of that, they were in the middle of their work days.

That's just the way Lipscomb people are.

One of the stops on our tour was the basketball office. Coach Bennett was out, but that afternoon I met Sherri Eubanks, Mike Roller, and Don Meyer. Coach Meyer was courteous, but he was not chatty. The coaches were going over some of the finer points of a defensive scheme I vaguely recognized as a form of match-up zone, and since I had nothing to add to the conversation, I sat and listened for a while, then Andy and I resumed the tour. My first impression (later confirmed when I would be walking through the upstairs of the gym during basketball practice) was that Coach Meyer was very focused, very determined, and very good at what he did.

That, and the only thing harder than beating Coach Meyer is distracting him.

The following season a friend of mine asked me to ride along to Lady Bisons road games to make game film. One night on our way to Martin Methodist, we stopped for he pregame meal at a nearby restaurant. This trip was a little bit unusual because the men's and women's teams travelled together. Coach Meyer drove his own car, but since the teams were on the same bus we all ate at the same place. I sat down with one of the womens' team student-assistants. Coach Meyer was at a different table, but nearby. Now ordinarily I'm a wallflower anyway, so it takes one to know one. That said, I have never seen anyone in my life try harder to blend into the background of a social situation than Coach Meyer on gameday.

Understand, these are not the observations of a long-term acquaintence, just someone who crossed his path on two random days -- one in mid-September, one in early February. Also understand, this is not criticism. As a preacher, I face "gameday" every Sunday, and I'm often just as focused, just as hard to distract. When I'm "on the clock," I'm giving everything I have -- so much so that if something happens on a Sunday I probrbaly won't remember it unless I write it down.

That said, there was one more occasion where Coach Meyer's path crossed mine. I had just graduated from Lipscomb maybe six weeks earlier. My sister, a starter on what would be a state-runner-up basketball team, was coming to Coach Meyer's Bison Basketbal Camp. She, my mom, and one of her teammates were driving from Florence, SC to Nashville, and were coming over Monteagle Mountain in the rain when something caused her car to begin to slide. Another car hit hers on the drivers side. The resulting injuries weren't serious, but they were enough to keep my sister and her friend from playing that week.

My sister spent the week recuperating at a friend's house in Nashville. This friend's dad worked at Lipscomb, and eventually word got back to Coach Meyer about what had happened. So Sunday afternoon we're sitting in this friend's parents living room, and Coach Meyer's car appears in the driveway. He and one of his coaching colleagues came to see my sister. The visit lasted about 45 minutes, Coach Meyer and me wall-flowering while the other coach and my mom had a nice chat.

My mom is one of those people. If she ever ran across that coach again, she'd probably ask about his kids by name.

What was impressive about the visit was not what Coach Meyer said, or more to the point what he didn't say, but the fact that he was there. This was camp registration day, likely the busiest day of the year from a paperwork and people-coordination standpoint. If there were ever a day when there were details to look after, this was it. But the one detail Coach Meyer wasn't going to let slip was coming to see a camper who wasn't going to get to play.

He put people before paperwork.

Even more impressive was that during the visit even Mr. Socially Inept Me could see how uncomfortable Coach Meyer was. Those close to him say Coach Meyer is the type who loves to do what he is good at, but making conversation with peple he doesn't know well is not one of his strongsuits. Yet in spite of his discomfort, in spite of everything else that had to be done that day, he knew that he could do some good just by showing up.

So he did.

In the last year, people who have spent a lot of time around Coach Meyer have expressed how much they love him. I can see why. Coach Meyer himself has also talked about how his injuries and illness have given him an opportunity to express to those same folks how much he loves them. For his sake, I'm glad he has found his voice enough to say these things out loud.

But if my three, random encounters with Coach Meyer are indicitave of the way he has lived the rest of his life, my suspicion is that deep down in their hearts, the folks hearing these words from Coach Meyer for the first time aren't hearing anything they didn't already know.

I Don't Want To Be A Millionaire

2009-07-17T16:17:00.002-05:00

"I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and ***** it, people like me."

Just not enough to put me on TV to try to win a million dollars.

The last time I tried out for Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, the best part of the audition was the standing in line.

Seriously.

The test was recycled -- I got several right just by reviewing old show questions. I passed the knowledge test, but missed the "how willing are you to put up with our attitude?" question. Not willing enough, apparently. From the AP who brought me into the test room, to the test coordinator guy, to the absolute zoo of the interview room, it looked like everybody working there had gotten out of bed entirely too early to do a job they hated.

And part of the process of getting on the show is, from what I've been told, catching the right AP in a good mood.

Sorry. Not for me.

If you want to go on the show, and even if you manage to get into the chair opposite Regis or Meredith, I'll be glad to be a phone-a-friend. My Google-Fu is powerful, grasshopper.

Just don't ask me to be a contestant. It's just not worth it.

Marathon Update

2009-07-16T13:52:00.002-05:00

Marathon training is on hold for a while. The intestinal infection will need a 30-day course of antibiotics to clear up. While I'm on the medicine, I'm supposed to avoid anything that might strain a tendon, and any prolonged exposure to direct sunlight. Since on the best of days I start to lobster up after about 15 minutes, and since "running" is at the top of the list of "things that can injure a weak tendon," I'm going to have to be down for the next month or so.

We'll try again in August.

Don't Blame Me . . .

2009-07-13T13:09:00.003-05:00

I voted for Bryan the Shark.

The girls liked Corky, the Tennis Ball on a Stick.

MomofTwins, however, is all about the pig. Front runner.

I know, I know. A house divided. The scandal of it all!

Oh, and Mr. TV Man, the next time somebody tries to sell you a script about a planet-killing rock careening toward Earth with the promise "It'll be great!" . . . don't. Just, don't. Please. I don't care how big the names are in your cast, or how "new and original" your story concept might be.

Don't. Just don't.

USA 2-3 (or 4) Brazil

2009-07-01T16:18:00.002-05:00

Interesting couple of games for the U. S. at Confederations Cup. Against Spain, they are out-chanced 25-11 but come away with a 2-0 win. Then, against Brazil, they give up 39 scoring chances while mustering only 13 and nearly escape with another win, falling 3-2.

A "scoring chance" is defined as a ball that goes over the end line (goal kick, corner, kick, or goal), a PK, or play called back as offside. At the Confederations Cup, scoring chances turned into goals about one time in 10. (41 out of 416, with stats not available for Iraq-New Zealand and USA-Egypt).

4 goals on 24 chances is quality finishing. Only giving up 3 goals against 64 chances is solid defense and breath-taking goalkeeping. The problem is in the midfield, where those chances are created and allowed. If you're giving the two best teams in the world 64 chances to score, the odds of holding them down for two games are slim indeed. If the U. S. wants to compete seriously for the World Cup, the midfield is where they will have to get better. A lot better. And fast.

And yes, USA fans, the ball off the underside of the bar was all the way in before Howard cleared it. That's a goal Brazil should have had.

Clarksville Half-Marathon

2009-06-25T14:03:00.001-05:00

Yes, I'm planning to enter the Clarksville Half-Marathon in November.

See the updates on the left side of the page to keep track of my training.

The Stolen Base and the Non-Standard Jeopardy Wager

2009-06-23T19:10:00.003-05:00

Over on the Jeopardy message boards, a user raised an interesting point regarding Monday night's game. If a non-standard FJ wager from the lead increases a player's chances of winning, even slightly, why do leaders not play the gambit more often?

Seattle Mariners fans have been asking themselves that question for years.

Ichiro Suzuki may be the best hit-it-and-run-type baseball player we've seen since the demise of the Negro Leagues. In 8 1/2 years in the majors, he has averaged 230 hits and 110 runs every 162 games, with almost as many triples as HRs. He is also one of the game's best base stealers, landing safely over 80% of the time.

But for as often as he gets to first base, and as good as he is at stealing second, he almost never tries it. Ichiro has stood on first base over 2100 times, but has only tried to steal second just under 400 times.

Part of the equation is risk and reward. In baseball, moving up one base makes it easier for your teammates to bat you around, but to get that base you take a chance on being thrown out. The Baseball Prospectus people say that in today's offensive environment, to make base stealing worth the risk, a player has to be successful over 70% of the time. Thus, for most players, frequent base stealing is counterproductive.

Most players, however, are not Ichiro.

Another consideration is game situation. Ichiro is more likely to run in the late innings of close games, or when he has a chance to give his team a quick, early lead. In the middle of games, or late in blowouts, he's probably not going.

That said, even when the game is on the line, the odds are about 3.6 to 1 against seeing Ichiro take off.

I suspect there might be a connection between why Ichiro doesn't run any more than he does and why even the most wagering-savvy players don't use gambits more often. Like the stolen base, the non-standard wager is most effective when it is deployed selectively. Even in situations where a non-standard wager optimizes one's chances of winning a particular match, there is a case to be made for a "mixed strategy," as even the best-laid formulae of mice and men can succomb to dumb luck. Plus, the decision to use a non-standard wager can also be influenced by a "read" -- either of the FJ category or the behavior of the other player(s). Some people are better than others at diving another person's intentions by their body language, just as some base runners are better than others at "reading" the pitcher.

For the record, I agree that non-standard wagers should be made more often than they are. I also think Ichiro should run more. But if you're a Jeopardy hopeful, and you want to make non-standard wagering part of your tool-kit on game day, make absolutely sure you know what you're doing, because there is a significant risk to it.

After all, they don't call it "Jeopardy" for nothing.

U. S. Open

2009-06-17T13:22:00.001-05:00

Good luck to Kennesaw State junior golfer Matt Nagy as he tees offf in the U. S. Open tomorrow.

The New Guy

2009-06-04T11:05:00.002-05:00

A few thoughts on the new late-night TV talk show regime:

-- There's a reason Conan O'Brien's Late Night show took off after Andy Richter left.
-- The String Dance is still funny. And yes, I am an infant.
-- The funniest human being in late night is Craig Ferguson. Last night he did TMBG's "Istanbul" in the show intro. I'm not sure if I laughed harder at that, or the Britney Spears thing, or the goat song from Sound of Music. And that's just the intro. (Hey, I'm an infant. I have a thing for puppets.)
-- Ferguson also has the best monologue in the business. No surprise there; he's been a stand-up comedian for twenty years. Letterman is better at the scripted bits, but nobody is better night in and night out up front that Ferguson.
-- I keep waiting for Letterman to throw me off his lawn.
-- According to people who have seen Leno on TV and in person, on TV Leno "pretends to be dumber and less funny that he really is." I really hope that's true.
-- Leno reminds me of one of those insipid "Spirit Rock" radio stations that bills itself as "safe for the whole family." OK, but what fun is that?
-- Jimmy Fallon just isn't funny. It's not for lack of effort, but that may be the problem. He needs to "try easier." If you go looking for the funny, it will hide forever. Let the funny come to you.
-- Jimmy Fallon may also need some better writers. One thing Leno and Conan are both known for is surrounding themselves with genuinely funny people. Most of the funny people Fallon knows are either SNL alums or the cast of 30 Rock.
-- Fallon would be well-advised to take a page from Ferguson's play-book. Let the viewers in. Fallon tries so hard to be "interactive" with his audience, but it seems forced. Show us who you are. Give us a reason to like you.
-- Fallon's two best moves so far have been "Seventh Floor West" and having Drew Barrymore as a guest. Drew knows him well enough to bring out his personality. I'm sure there is one in there somewhere.
-- Jimmy Kimmel is stuck in time-slot purgatory. Here he doesn't come on until 11:30, so his monologue has to go head-to-head against Ferguson. No contest. In most of the country he comes on at the top of the hour, after Nightline. For starters, with Nightline as a lead-in he's not going to get too terrible much audience. Plus, most folks have settled into Conan or Letterman by then.
-- Hulu has introduced me to Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert. Being on cable gives them liberties -- both with language and more importantly with content -- that network guys just don't have.

My own personal Top 5 Hosts:

1. Craig Ferguson
2. Jon Stewart (far and away the best interviewer)
3. Steven Colbert
4. Conan O'Brien
5. David Letterman

Top 3 Announcers:

1. Alan Kulter
2. Shadoe Stevens
3. Higgins

HNORABLE MENTION -- Don Pardo. His Jeopardy legacy notwithstanding, he showed the new guys how it's done week in and week out on SNL. Enjoy your retirement, Don.

Top 3 Bands/Bandleaders:

1. Max Weinberg & The Tonight Show Band
2. Cleto & the Cletones
3. The Roots

Top 5 Gimmicks:

1. Craig Ferguson's show intros
2. Triumph the Insult Comic Dog
3. The Word
4. Fun Facts
5. John Oliver on anything British

Lipscomb is #11 in the country . . .

2009-06-03T16:57:00.002-05:00

. . . when it comes to abusing pitchers.

In Lipscomb's 56 baseball games this year, the starting pitcher threw over 120 pitches seven times. In the A-Sun, only Campbell was more abusive of its starters (7 120+ pitch-count games out of 51 played).

In 2008, Lipscomb ranked 11th in the country in Pitcher Abuse Points, going over 120 pitches a mind-boggling 16 times and twice breaking the 130 mark. In the same category last year, USC-Upstate ranked 15th in the country, piling up 12 120-pitch starts.

Get Lipscomb Out of the NCAA, Part II

2009-05-29T15:36:00.002-05:00

Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Now we find out that Memphis probably used an ineligible player during its 2008 run to the Final Four. If the allegations are proven, Memphis will have to forfeit all 38 wins that year, including their Title Game appearance.

This would also be the second time that John Calipari was forced to modify his resume.

Yet like Kelvin Sampson before him, on goes Calipari to another big-time program. No consequences. No financial penalties. No expectations other than that he'll cheat for his new team, too.

And Lipscomb is proud of its association with big-time college athletics? Really?

Spelling Bee Thursday

2009-05-28T13:52:00.002-05:00

Wow. Round 5 was a bloodbath.

Two of my favorites -- Talmadge Nakamoto, who lists his fafvorite movie as "The Princess Bride" and Alex Wells of San Diego with the hair and the mustache -- missed the Top 11. Alex was felled in the Round 5 Massacre (dansant); Talmadge survivied but went down in Round 6 (caliche).

TV tonight will feature two of the favorites (Shivishankar and Chand) plus 3-timers Kyle Mou, Aishwarya Pastapur, Kennyi Aouad, and Neetu Chandak. Only four of the remaining 11 are rookies.

Watching the Spelling Bee

2009-05-27T12:32:00.005-05:00

Calling it now -- at least one California kid is going to be on TV Friday night. 15 spellers in, and the difference in confidence between the California kids and the rest is palpable.

And wow. I just saw the kid from San Diego. I hope he gets there, just for the mustache factor.

Of course, it's way too early. And we're only seeing them facing one word out of the 27 they are being scored on. They have already taken a 50-word test worth 25 points. The words they're spelling now are worth 3 points each. The top 50 scorers (out of 293) advance to the TV semifinals tomorrow.

Canada is up now. Stay tuned.

UPDATE -- End of the third quarter. The oral round is scoring at about an 83% clip. I'm guessing (not unreasonably, I don't think) that the written round averaged about 84%. Based on those probabilities, 43 kids out of 293 will score 29 or higher. That only leaves seven spots for somebody who missed one in the oral round, provided they aced the written test.

It's the National Spelling Bee. The margin for error is very, very slim.

UPDATE AGAIN -- Another interesting stat: Kids who have been to the Spelling Bee at least once are 122-for-134 (91%) in the oral rounds, while newcomers are 343-for-419 (81%) so far. Spellers on their third or fourth national bee are a combined 35-for-36, or 97.2%.

MY PICK -- Kavia Shivashankar of Olathe, Kansas. If experience counts, this could be her year. This is her fourth finals, and she has 3 top-10 finishes already. No other speller in the field has placed in the top 25 more than once. Watch out also for defending-runner-up Sidharth Chand and last year's 10-th place finisher Kyle Mou.

Bee Week

2009-05-26T15:14:00.002-05:00

The National Spelling Bee is this week. Live streaming starts tomorrow on ESPN 360, with semifinals on Thursday and the championship Friday night.

The first academic competition I ever won was a spelling bee in first grade. I won the school-wide fourth grade spelling bee even though I was only in fourth grade for the last six weeks of the year. I never got to compete at the highest levels, but that's probably for the best. I'm insufferable enough as it is.

Craig Ferguson Intro, May 18

2009-05-19T11:58:00.001-05:00

This is just really, really wrong.

I laughed for several minutes. Hard.

Your Move, NCAA

2009-05-14T12:37:00.002-05:00

So here it is. The gauntlet is thrown down.

Whether or not I watch college football or basketball next year will depend on what the NCAA does with USC.

Are you listening, Lipscomb? Belmont? Mid-majors? Are you listening, ESPN? Kyle Whelliston? Are you listening, CBS? Coca-Cola? Pontiac?

The O. J. Mayo & Reggie Bush stories embody everything that is wrong about college sports. USC needs to be a scapegoat, a warning. The message the NCAA sends in the USC case will tell me and fans like me whether they take themselves seriously enough to enforce their own rules.

And if they don't, I'm done. With them and with any of their member institutions, conferences, and "corporate champions." When the NCAA is ready to have a fair competition on a level playing field, I'm right there.

It's time for the stakeholders -- member schools, sponsors, conferences -- to force the NCAA's hand. And if you're a fan of an NCAA school, it's time to you to stand up for the honest coaches and players who take fairness seriously.

Write your AD. Write your University President. Contact networks and sponsors. Tell them we've seen enough.

Your move, NCAA.

Coaching Change

2009-04-07T10:18:00.000-05:00

Matt Kilcullen is out at North Florida. The new guy is former Baylor assistant Matthew Driscoll.

I don;t have any inside access, but I'm not really surprised at the move. North Florida hired a new AD this spring, and when that happens everything gets re-evaluated.

In terms of doing "the best you can with what you have," Kilcullen was the best in the conference this year. The catch, of course, is that in college basketball, "what you have" is what you recruit. Hopefully for Osprey fans, Driscoll will be able to give himself more to work with.

I'm Done

2009-03-27T14:26:00.000-05:00

I've seen enough.

I usually enjoy college basketball, no matter who's playing, but last night . . . meh. It's not just that the games were bad (which they were). It's not just that I've been all but eliminated in our family bracket contest (which I am. My only hope is for North Carolina to win out, beating Villanova and anybody but Louisville in the process.)

There's simply nobody left to root for.

Gonzaga has long since left the days of "the glass slipper still fits." (Watch out, Western Kentucky. You're next.) Xavier is out. The Final Four has a realistic shot at looking like the Euro 2008 semis.

Cinderella has left the building.

I suppose I don't have anybody to blame but myself. I've read entirely too much about how the sausage that is college basketball is made. After eight years of trying, I've even gotten pretty good at predicting who will be seeded where. Sadly, since the advent of the one-and-done rule three years ago, it's become even easier to predict what's going to happen once the seed lines are drawn. George Mason was a once-in-a-lifetime fluke. Davidson was a one-man show; just look what happened when their one guy got hurt. Even little brother Curry is flying the coop at Liberty for bigger and better.

I knew all that. Kyle Whelliston's red line makes it pretty clear. The cool kids have come to take over the playground, and it's time for the oddballs to go home.

So fine. I'm leaving.

I'll probably be back next year. No promises -- unlike the NCAA's, life cannot always be rigged to produce the outcome we like. If something happens in the A-Sun between now and next October 15, I'll make a note of it. I'll probably check in around baseball & softball tournament time.

But for me, basketball season is over.

God bless.

NCAA Buzzer Beaters

2009-03-20T15:06:00.005-05:00

To refresh -- a "buzzer beater" is a shot that is in the air with less than 1 second left, where if it goes in the score is tied or the shooters take the lead.

The only one to go in this year was in the Gonzaga-Western Kentucky game.

The last person to make one in the NCAA tournament was Travis Rogers of Western Kentucky last year against Drake.

So far this year the field is 2-for-9.

GOOD:

Gonazaga over Western Kentucky on Demitri Goodson's lay-up with 0.9 seconds left.
Scottie Reynolds of Villanova hits a runner with 0.5 left to beat Pittsburgh.

NO GOOD:

Clemson missed a potential tying 3 against Michigan.
VCU missed a 17-foot jumper against UCLA that would have won it.
Tennessee missed a 3 at the buzzer that would have beaten Oklahoma State.
Ohio State missed 3 buzzer-beaters against Siena. Two 3-pointers at the buzzer of regulation and the first overtime, and a contested jumper at the end of the second OT, all missed.
Pittsburgh goes off the backboard from 75 feet at the horn against Villanova.

Stay tuned.

ETSU vs. Pittsburgh

2009-03-20T14:31:00.000-05:00

Sorry to join midstream, but day jobs, real life, yadda yadda yadda.

Mike Smith is a beast. Kevin Tiggs had a nice alley-oop. Isaiah Brown has two fouls early. But the Bucs are hanging in there, mostly with drives to the hoop.

7 to go, first half -- ETSU just had a 4-on-1 breakaway denied by a shot clock violation. They didn't pick up the loose ball before the buzzer. Pitt by 1.

Kevin Tiggs is loving life right now. It's all Tiggs all the time offensively. Pigram is having a solid day defensively. Pitt is having their way on the glass, when they want to. Fortunately for ETSU, there are times when the Bucs want it more.

This is what ETSU needs to do -- Support Tiggs on offense. Rally around Pigram on the defensive end. Want the ball when the shot goes up. Keep Mike Smith on the floor as long as you can.

Final TV timeout of the half. Pitt by 2.

Eleven Pitt turnovers, plus a technical for hanging on the rim. Pitt still by 2, even though ETSU is not shooting well.

Weird play just now -- Pitt player bumps Hubbard into Smith, who was trying to shoot. Smith misses, and goes to the foul line. Not sure who the "victim" of the foul is in that spot. Checking with the officiating.com forum.

Halftime. Pitt 26, ETSU 23. Mike Smith was a fraction of a hair late on a shot at the buzzer that would have cut it to one. Great play, well executed.

ETSU is ready. Pitt is sluggish and sloppy. Look out.

Straight out of halftime Mike Smith for 3. Bottom.

Pigram is 2-for-11 now. Stay confident, kid. It'll happen. Just keep playing defense and let the offense come to you.

This is why ETSU is still in this game. Courtney Pigram with brilliant defense on a breakaway. Pitt misses twice, then Mike Smith gets back to tip the rebound clear.

Are you kidding me? Mike Smith making trouble in the low block. Mike Hamlin with the block. Courtney Pigram with the second-chance basket. Pitt sloppy against the ETSU press. ETSU ball, down 2 at the TV timeout. The crowd begins to believe.

You have to make the free throws. ETSU is 6-14 at the line. But they're only down 1, and their biggest deficit all night has been 6.

8:03 to go, Pitt by 5, ETSU ball. Mike Smith misses, then the teams trade 3's. Kevin Tiggs just kept the Bucs alive. Timeout.

Tommy Hubbard just fouled out. Both teams are absolutely exhausted. In most games of this type, this is the point where the 1-seed's depth becomes the deciding factor. When the shoes stop squeaking, things revert to seed form. But ETSU is only down 6. Under 5 to go.

Here we go. Brown scores, misses the FT. Pigram for 3 off the offensive rebound. Turnover. 59-57.

69-61, under a minute to go. DeJuan Blair has owned the last 3 minutes.

Ball game. Pitt 72, ETSU 62. Solid effort by the Bucs, but not quite enough. Tiggs had 21, Pigram had 17. Offensive rebounding was superb, but FT shooting was abysmal. The Bucs left 7 points on the floor with their misses at the line. All in all, a good effort. Not quite the scare Belmont gave Duke, but a solid performance.

They Might Be Grammy Winners -- Again

2009-03-11T16:35:00.002-05:00

Congratulations to the coolest rock band ever on their second Grammy win. Best Children's Album on 2008 -- Here Come the 123's.

A-Sun Blog-et-ology

2009-03-11T12:24:00.000-05:00

Edited on March 13, 6:20 p.m. -- A lot of stuff happened, and I found a fatal error in one of the pairings. Should be all fixed now.

Edited March 15, 8:30 a.m. -- Latest auto-bid updates

In case you missed it, ETSU beat Jacksonville to win the A-Sun title. This just in, Mike Smith is pretty good.

Here's my best guess at what a bracket might look like if the season ended today. Look for some changes on the 11 & 12 lines as the BCS tournaments play out. I'm putting ETSU in a 15-seed match-up with Louisville (edit 3/13: Oklahoma) in round one.

1 -- North Carolina
16 -- Alabama State/Chattanooga (PIG)
8 -- Tennessee
9 -- Ohio State
4 -- Villanova
13 -- North Dakota State
5 -- Xavier
12 -- USC
2 -- Oklahoma
15 -- ETSU
7 -- Marquette
10 -- Siena
3 -- Washington
14 -- Cornell
6 -- Purdue
11 -- Boston College

1 -- Pittsburgh
16 -- Morehead State
8 -- LSU
9 -- Texas A&M
4 -- UCLA
13 -- Northern Iowa
5 -- Clemson
12 -- Cleveland State
2 -- Michigan State
15 -- Robert Morris
7 -- Utah
10 -- Dayton
3 -- Kansas
14 -- Portland State
6 -- Florida State
11 -- Arizona

1 -- Connnecticut
16 -- Radford
8 -- California
9 -- Utah State
4 -- Gonzaga
13 -- Western Kentucky
5 -- Illinois
12 -- Virginia Commonwealth
2 -- Duke
15 -- Binghamton
7 -- Butler
10 -- Minnesota
3 -- Missouri
14 -- Akron
6 -- West Virginia
11 -- San Diego State

1 -- Memphis
16 -- Morgan State
8 -- Oklahoma State
9 -- Wisconsin
4 -- Syracuse
13 -- Stephen F. Austin/Texas Southern winner
5 -- BYU
12 -- Temple
2 -- Louisville
15 -- CS-Northridge
7 -- Texas
10 -- Michigan
3 -- Wake Forest
14 -- American
6 -- Arizona State
11 -- Florida (Mississippi State goes here with an SEC tournament title)

A-Sun Blog Post-Season Awards

2009-03-06T17:40:00.000-06:00

Using a version of "win shares" modified for college basketball, here is the official Atlantic Sun Blog All-Conference Team.

1st Team:

Mike Smith (ETSU) 5.48 win shares
Alex Renfroe (BEL) 5.15
Ayron Hardy (JAX) 4.78
Kevin Tiggs (ETSU) 4.71
Daniel Emerson (MER) 3.79

Player of the Year -- Mike Smith, ETSU.

The conference vote went to Alex Renfroe, and anytime a player leads his team in points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks, and the team goes 14-6 and has a good look at the conference title on the last day, it's hard to argue. Of the 50 best individual performances this year, Renfroe had seven of them. When I started running the numbers, I honestly thought Renfroe would come out on top.

But then I looked at Mike Smith. And everywhere Renfroe was good, Smith was just a little better, especially in the stats that lead to wins.

Between the two, it was close. And as I said, Renfroe has a case. A look at the numbers, though, says it's not as open and shut a case as the voting might indicate.

2nd Team:

Bobby Davis (USCU) 3.45
Adnan Hodzic (DLU) 3.17
Marcus Allen (JAX) 3.16
Garfield Blair (STET) 3.08
Jonathan Rodriguez (CAM) 3.04

Honorable Mention (win shares totals of 2 or more)

BELMONT -- Matthew Dotson, Shane Dansby
CAMPBELL -- Junard Hartley
ETSU -- Mike Hamlin, Isaiah Brown
GULF COAST -- Derrick O'Neal
JACKSONVILLE -- Ben Smith (3.02 win shares, 11th overall), Lehmon Colbert
LIPSCOMB -- Josh Slater, Brandon Brown, Michael Lusk, Michael Teller
MERCER -- James Florence

All-Defensive Team (Defense win shares of 2 or more):

Mike Smith (ETSU) 3.11
Kevin Tiggs (ETSU) 2.64
Alex Renfroe (BEL) 2.30
James Florence (MER) 2.11
Garfield Blair (STET) 2.08

Yes, James Florence is one of the five best defenders in the conference. Ayron Hardy of Jacksonville, who was voted Defensive Player of the Year, was ninth in defensive win shares with 1.66. Ironically, Aryon Hardy was more of an asset to his team offensively, while James Florence was more of an asset of defense.

Outstanding Newcomer: Daniel Emerson, Mercer. This is a recording.

All-Freshman Team: TBA

Coach of the Year: Matt Kilcullen, UNF. Based on their statistical output, the Ospreys should have only won 2 games this conference season. They finished 6-14, four games better.

And in the Other Game . . .

2009-03-06T15:09:00.000-06:00

Jacksonville vs. Lipscomb

Jacksonville is the one-seed for a reason, mostly on the defensive end. Top to bottom, the Dolphins get after it on defense. They have very few weaknesses on that side of the floor. Plus, they have the most efficient offense in the conference, scoring more than 1.1 points per possession.

Lipscomb comes in on a roll, rattling off nine straight wins including victories over the top 3 seeds in the tournament. The Campbell game last night was easier than expected, so rest shouldn't be an issue. That said, the Jacksonville defense will be. Lipscomb runs one of the fastest offenses in the conference (only ETSU and Mercer are faster), but that only works if the shot actually goes up. If this game turns into a shoot-and-rebound contest, Lipscomb has a puncher's chance. But if Jacksonville does what it does well -- turning good shots into bad ones and bad shots into defensive rebounds, pressuring the ball, and being coldly efficient on offense -- the Dolphins should take care of business.

Either way, I like the winner of tonight's game to beat the ETSU-Belmont survivor pretty solidly tomorrow.

Prediction -- Tonight, the magic dies. Lipscomb runs up against the deepest team in the field, gives it a valiant go, and exits stage left. Jacksonville 75, Lipscomb 68.

Second Prediction -- A rested Jacksonville Dolphins team makes quick work of a bloodied ETSU squad to punch the dance ticket, winning by double digits going away. The Bucs get the conference's automatic NIT bid.

It's On

2009-03-06T14:28:00.000-06:00

The game we've been waiting a year for is here at 6:30 tonight.

Belmont-ETSU, or The Revenge of the Swader.

Belmont survived a scare against Mercer yesterday, squeaking through by one on a lay-up with 0.2 seconds left. ETSU has a full day's rest after knocking off Stetson Wednesday night. Both teams won 14 conference games this year and split head-to-head.

And none of that matters.

For ETSU, this game is all about Kenyona Swader, last year's senior whose technical foul in the final minute gave Belmont the lead. The rumor is he said something derogatory to Belmont's Andy Wicke during this exchange. As you can see in the video, after the T ETSU did not score again, and Belmont went on to the NCAA's where they gave Duke all they wanted.

As far as the match-up goes, I like ETSU's big three a lot. Pigram play best against the best opponents, and Smith and Tiggs are just plain good at basketball. Belmont is not as deep as they have been in the past, and with all the energy they spent surviving Mercer yesterday, they may not have the gas to go toe-to-toe again.

The one advantage Belmont has is experience. Wicke, Renfroe, House, and Dansby have all been here before, and in a meaningful capacity. What's more, they've won in this situation, knocking ETSU out three straight years.

Prediction -- The game itself is too close to call. I'm picking ETSU, but only because I think they will have better players on the floor at the end, and I like their chances of defending a last shot situation better than Belmont's. Not by much, but by enough to squeak by. ETSU 73, Belmont 72

Conference Tournament Preview, Day 2 (continued)

2009-03-05T15:35:00.000-06:00

Lipscomb vs. Campbell

A battle of winning streaks happens in the nightcap, as Lipscomb puts an 8-game winning streak up against Campbell's five-game run. If I could only see one game in this tournament, I might pick this one, even over an ETSU-Belmont grudge match.

Lipscomb has the second-most-efficient offense in the conference, flowing through big man Adnan Hodzic. The biggest weakness in Lipscomb's game is how they do in close games. As I have written in this space before, Lipscomb has the talent to win, but doesn't close out games very well. They are 0-5 this year in games where the lead changes hands in the last 4 minutes of regulation. Since conference games tend to run close, this does not bode well for the Bisons.

On the other hand, one of Lipscomb's strengths is defending the interior and rebounding. Lipscomb leads the conference in defensive and total rebounds per game. The Bisons pull down almost 70% of opposition misses. Campbell's game, especially during this winning streak, has been Junard Hartley creating shots for Lorne Merthe outside and Jonathan Rodriguez inside. As J-Rod has become less of a one-man team and started to use Hartley and Merthe more, Campbell has become much harder to defend.

Prediction -- Lipscomb rides the crowd to an early lead, but Campbell stays in contact until Merthe gets warmed up. J-Rod has a huge night, but Lipscomb's defense clamps down on the supporting cast. A double-digit late lead is whittled away, but unlike last time the buzzer beater rattles out and Lipscomb hangs on. Lipscomb 73, Campbell 71

Conference Tournament Preview, Day 2

2009-03-05T15:10:00.000-06:00

Belmont vs. Mercer

USC-Upstate did Belmont a huge favor last Thursday night. Their win over Mercer dropped the Bears into the six seed and bumped Campbell to fifth. Nothing against Mercer, but the Bruins match up much more favorably against the Bears than the Camels. Combine that with Campbell's five-game winning streak and they become a tough out.

Belmont features no-doubter Conference Player of the Year Alex Renfroe, and a solid supporting cast. About the only question mark Belmont faces going into the weekend is depth. The last three years the Bruins have been known for running 9-10 deep, each guy playing between 15 and 25 minutes. This year Belmont's bench is significantly shallower; the starting five all average over 27 minutes, with one bench guy at 15 and three more between 9 and 12.

That said, Mercer might give Belmont a chance to reserve some energy for ETSU. James Florence will take his shots, and Emerson will probably post a double-double, but with Mercer offensively it's feast or famine. Either Florence and Kuysner are hitting everything and Emerson is scoring inside, or nothing goes right. Defensively for Mercer it's mostly famine; they're the only team in the tournament to give up more than one point per possession.

Prediction -- Florence shoots his team out of the game early, then back into it late. Belmont's struggles at the free throw line keep it close, but not close enough. Belmont 77, Mercer 72

Conference Tourney Preview

2009-03-04T17:53:00.000-06:00

Wednesday -- ETSU vs. Stetson.

This might be the best possible draw for ETSU. They get the Wednesday game, then they get the winner of Belmont-Mercer on short rest. Plus, Lipscomb and Campbell are both on the other side of the bracket. Stetson is limping into Allen Arena on a 4-game losing streak, and is one of only two teams in Division I to lose at home to North Florida. Ever.

That said, the Hatters and Bucs split their series this year, each winning in the other's building. Also, Stetson is not a team that will go down quietly; in the season finale against Campbell they rallied form a 27-5 first-half deficit to make the game close in the second half.

Prediction -- ETSU carries a 9-12 point lead through most of the second half. Stetson makes a late run, but comes up short. ETSU 71, Stetson 67

Post-Season Awards

2009-03-03T10:00:00.000-06:00

I haven't run all the numbers yet, but based on what I've seen so far, here's my best guess on who should win:

1st Team All A-Sun:

Ben Smith, Jacksonville
Alex Renfroe, Belmont
Mike Smith, ETSU
Adnan Hodzic, Lipscomb
Kevin Tiggs, ETSU

2nd Team All A-Sun

Jonathan Rodriguez, Campbell
Matthew Dotson, Belmont
Lehmon Colbert, Jacksonville
Daniel Emerson, Mercer
Garfield Blair, Stetson

Honorable Mention All-Confernce -- TBA

Coach of the Year -- TBA

Outstanding Newcomer -- Daniel Emerson, Mercer

Player of the Year -- Alex Renfroe. Of the fifty best single-game PEGs in conference play, Renfroe had seven of them. The next-best was Mike Smith with four. Ben Smith was the best player on the best team, but Renfroe had the best year.

Defensive Player of the Year -- TBA

All-Defensive Team -- TBA

All-Freshman Team -- TBA

More to come as I have time to fill in more numbers.

And Down the Stretch They Come

2009-02-26T10:25:00.000-06:00

With the last weekend of conference play looming, absolutely nothing is settled. Depending on how things go, every team in the conference can move as many as two conference tournament seed lines. The only exceptions are Campbell and Stetson, who are playing for the six seed.

Not to go all NFL on you, but here are the conference championship scenarios:

Jacksonville -- Win at Lipscomb OR Win at Belmont. This eliminates ETSU, and Jacksonville wins all tiebreakers with Belmont by virtue of Lipscomb finishing with a better conference record than Campbell.

Belmont -- Win vs. Jacksonville AND Lipscomb win vs. Jacksonville. For Belmont to win the conference title, they need to be tied with Jacksonville going into Saturday's game.

ETSU -- Win vs. Kennesaw AND Win vs. Mercer AND North Florida win at Belmont AND Lipscomb win vs. Jacksonville AND Belmont win vs. Jacksonville. ETSU's only hope is to get into a three-way tie with Jacksonville and Belmont at 14-6. If they do, they win because they would have a season sweep over Mercer while Jacksonville's best sweep would be Stetson and Belmont's would be Campbell. In that scenario, the outcome of the Stetson-Campbell game would determine who gets the 2 seed (and the Wednesday quarterfinal) and who ends up third.

This year, winning the conference title is huge, because you get both an automatic invite to the NIT even if you lose in the conference tournament, PLUS you get a bye into the semifinals, meaning you don't have to play until Friday. The 2-seed plays the seven Wednesday night, while 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5 happen Thursday.

While another Battle of the Boulevard might be fun, what I would really love to see is a Belmont-Campbell rematch. Seriously, that comeback was ridiculous.

Player of the Week -- Eni Cuka gets the nod from the conference office. Now understand three things: 1) I love North Florida. The whole idea of a knock-down, drag-out, team-wide road trip chess tournament is just too awesome for words. 2) I like the idea of limiting "Player of the Week" to teams that won both games. I disagree with the policy but I appreciate the sentiment behind it. 3) I am typically critical of players who pad their own stats at the expense of the team.

That being said, this is the week to give James Florence the POW. He rallied his team from a 25-point first-half deficit against Lipscomb to get within 5 in the second half. He may have been a one-man team, but that night he was all Mercer had working, and ended up with a 29 PEG. Then he posts another team-leading PEG of 22 in a huge win against Belmont -- a win which, by the way, keeps Mike Smith and ETSU alive for the conference title.

Weird Stat -- Belmont and Kennesaw State played a 57-possession game last week. Both teams average over 73 per game.

I'll be at the Lipscomb-North Florida double-header Saturday. I've been promising Erica a trip to a basketball game, and I wanted to find one where I could let her root for the home team. ;) Stop by and say hi if you're in the neighborhood.

Four Wins in Eight Days . . .

2009-02-17T16:23:00.000-06:00

is hard to do.

This week (sorry, week and a day), Lipscomb did exactly that. Two wins by 5 points over conference leaders surrounded by comfortable wins over Campbell and Gulf Coast. Belmont and Jacksonville are on top now, with ETSU a game back. Lipscomb is back to .500. Mercer has won 5 in a row to pull within 2 games of first place. Campbell continues to defy all explanation, losing to UNF and beating Jacksonville on the same road trip.

Game of the Week -- I'm always partial to the Battle of the Boulevard, but Belmont's best game came two nights later against ETSU. With the conference lead on the line, the Bruins rallied from 11 down with a 16-2 second half run to win 76-73. ETSU had three shots in the final minute to tie or take the lead, but nothing fell. In the unexpected ending of the week, Stetson had a working margin on Mercer for most of the game, up 15 with 9 1/2 to go, but the Bears outscored the Hatters 23 to 6 over the next 9 minutes to take their first lead. Stetson tied it up, but the overtime was all Mercer.

Player of the Week -- Adnan Hozdic of Lipscomb got the nod from the conference office. And having the biggest impact on the conference's hottest team (33 PEG vs. Belmont, 23 PEG vs. Upstate) is a good case. That said, Alex Renfroe of Belmont had a better week statistically.

Weird Stat -- Later this week, I'll listen to the audio of Lipscomb vs. ETSU to find out what happened to trigger four (!!!) technical fouls in the second half. Coming into this week, the entire conference had 9 technical fouls this season. This week there were six more.

A Fun Week Proving Nothing

2009-02-12T14:05:00.000-06:00

Close games, big shots, and a comeback for the ages, all of which resulted in almost no movement in the standings at all.

Game of the Week -- Can there be any doubt? Belmont is down 18 with 3 1/2 to go, down 11 with under two left, and comes back to win. In regulation. On the road at Campbell.

Other Good Games -- Three one-point games, an OT game, and another 3-point game. Bobby Davis hits a pair of FTs with 3 seconds left to beat Stetson. James Florence rebounds his own miss with 6 seconds left and scores five seconds later, completing a 9-point comeback in the last 2 1/2 minutes to beat Jacksonville. In a game they never led, ETSU had three shots, including a FT, that would have either tied the game or put them ahead in the final 90 seconds but missed them all, losing by one to Stetson. In another rebound game, Jacksonville survived a missed 3-ball by John-Michael Nickerson of Kennesaw to hold on and win by 3.

Player of the Week: Close call this week. Mercer played 3 games, Belmont and Lipscomb only played once. Only 5 guys posted multiple 15-plus PEG nights, and three of them played 3 games. Overall, this was one of the weakest offensive weeks of the year, which makes defense and rebounding key. The conference office went with James Florence, and a PEG average of 17.3, the late-game heroics against Jacksonville, and a team that won 3 times in 5 days make their choice solid. That said, Kevin Tiggs had a better week statisctically (a 30 PEG against FGCU and 18 against Stetson), but his team went 1-1. But if you're looking for a good player on a winning team -- especially one who rebounded well in a week where defense was at a premium -- I'd pick Daniel Emerson. Nothing flashy, but PEGs of 19, 29, and 17 -- his biggest performance coming in the biggest game. Florence may be the guy you want taking the shot late, but Emerson is the guy who is going to keep you in the game long enough for Florence to put on his superhero cape.

Honorable Mention -- The other guys to post multiple 15+ PEGs were Jon-Michael Nickerson of Kennesaw (28 against UNF and 16 against FGCU) and Bryan Mills of Mercer (22 against Kennesaw and 18 against UNF). Jonathan Rodriguez posted 26 in the loss to Belmont. In that game, Alex Renfroe and Nick Hedgepeth (WTTB) of Belmont posted 24 and 20, respectively. Bobby Davis' heroics against Stetson were part of a 27 PEG night. A. J. Smith of Stetson compiled a 20 PEG in the loss.

The NCAA is hosting their third annual mock bracket selection weekend for journalists this weekend. In their simulation, Belmont wins the conference tournament. Just so you know.

Battle of the Boulevard II tonight.

Pride & Prejudice -- And Zombies!!!

2009-02-11T11:41:00.001-06:00

Elizabeth "Buffy" Bennett, the Vampire Slayer.

This has to be the awesomest development to hit high school English classes since the invention of Cliff's Notes.

Another Oddity from Last Night's Belmont-Campbell Game

2009-02-07T12:31:00.000-06:00

In the middle of the 30-9 run last night, Belmont coach Rick Byrd was hit with a technical foul.

I haven't been able to find anybody who keeps a regular count of such occurrences, but in a quick round of Googling I have only been able to find nine technical fouls issued to A-Sun teams and coaches this year.

Bob Hoffman of Mercer leads with 3, including an ejection. Jacksonville was issued an "administrative technical" before a game against Campbell.

69 conference games, 164 total games, and only 9 technical fouls.

I love this conference.

Are You Kidding Me?

2009-02-07T11:02:00.000-06:00

Seriously.

I did not just see that.

Campbell leads Belmont by 18 (!!!) with less than 4 minutes to go, and Belmont comes back to win.

Wow.

A 30-9 run over the last 3:27, with all 9 Campbell points coming at the free throw line. J-Rod goes 2 for 4. Hartley goes 4 for 10. Rick Byrd even gets a Technical.

Get this -- the run started when Belmont started fouling. The only catch is that Campbell is THE BEST FREE THROW SHOOTING TEAM IN THE CONFERENCE! 71% for the year, 9 for 20 down the stretch last night. Nothing like playing to the opposition's strength and beating them anyway.

Of course, when J-Rod is having the kind of night he was having (25 & 10 on 8 of 12 shooting for a PEG of 26), fouling other guys was the only way to get the ball out of his hands.

During the run, Belmont made 6 of 8 3-balls. During the first 36+ minutes, they were 2 for 24.

Amazing.

Scary Stats if You're Lipscomb Fan

2009-02-04T13:59:00.000-06:00

Consider the following numbers:

Lipscomb is 0-6 in games decided by 4 points or less.

Lipscomb is 2-10 when the final score is within 3 possessions.

None of this is news. Anybody who has watched Lipscomb this year has seen them struggle in close games.

But consider this: In the six "4 or less" games this year, Lipscomb has been ahead at some point in the final 4 minutes of regulation. In four other games, the lead has changed hands at some point in the last 8 minutes.

Lipscomb's record in those games? 1-9

Ten winnable games, and Lipscomb has closed the deal exactly once. Granted, that one was at Indiana, but that may say more about the Hoosiers than the Bisons.

Yes, Lipscomb is young. Yes, they are still searching for the "go-to" guy in crunch time that Eddie Ard has been for the last 3 years.

But even if you go back to the NIT year, Lipscomb is 19-34 in games decided by single digits. And that's including the year they had Ard, Brian Fisk, and Trey Williams in the starting line-up.

Much like Mercer last year, Lipscomb should be better than this.

Weekend Update

2009-02-03T16:18:00.000-06:00

Wow. Just, wow.

Right when it looked like Stetson was circling the drain, they sweep the Nashville schools to pull back above .500. Campbell finally lays the beat downs on people that we thought they were capable of, winning three straight. Lipscomb drops two more close games, their last seven conference losses coming by a total of 25 points.

And Jacksonville beat ETSU in overtime to take sole possession of first place, only to leave a giant hairball on the rug Sunday, losing at home to Upstate by 11 in a game that wasn't that close. ETSU barely got by UNF after the Jacksonville loss.

I love this conference.

Game of the Week: Jacksonville over ETSU in OT. This just in: Ben Smith is pretty good. Smith threw one in from 28 feet in the last 10 seconds of regulation. And welcome back, Marcus Allen. 17 points, 9 boards, 5 blocks for a PEG of 25. For ETSU, Mike Smith was a one-man show, going for 18 & 16 but not scoring in the last 5 minutes of regulation as the Dolphins came from 7 down to force overtime. Still, credit the Bucs. Virtually everybody has an off night, and they take Jacksonville to OT on the road? Not bad.

Second-best game: Stetson over Lipscomb in OT. This year for Lipscomb is shaping up a lot like Eddie Ard's freshman year. The Bisons are right there late in games, but can't quite close the deal. If they had luck on their side, they would be 9-3 right now. If their record mirrored their stats, they would be 7-5. As it is, they have lost ALL of the close games and sit 4-8. In this one, Lipscomb trailed by 13 in the first half, but mounted a 17-4 run to tie it early in the second. From then on, neither team led by more than 4 until overtime, when Stetson finally took control. The Hatters then made 9 of 10 free throws in the last 36 seconds of OT to put it away.

Player of the week -- Sorry, but the conference office kicked this one. They gave it to A. J. Smith of Stetson, who posted a 34 PEG against Belmont. Good, but not the high single-game PEG of the weekend (see below), and when you factor in the Lipscomb game, teammate Garfield Blair was better. 30 PEG vs. Lipscomb on 26 points, 10 boards, and a perfect 10-for-10 at the line, followed by 22 PEG and a near dub-dub vs. Belmont. That said, if I had a vote, I would give it to Mike Smith of ETSU. 37 PEG against UNF (24 points, 14 boards, 9-11 shooting in a game when his team had to have every bit of him). Throw in 26 PEG against Jacksonville (even though he was effectively neutralized late) and you've got your player of the week.

Honorable mention -- Welcome back, J-Rod. 28 PEG against Kennesaw, 26 PEG against FGCU, 20 PEG against Mercer. Any other week, my man. Bobby Davis: 28 PEG (but a miss on a potential tying FT in the last 5 seconds) in a loss at North Florida. Daniel Emerson (MER): 27 PEG on 17 & 15 against Kennesaw. This is a recording. Jon House (BEL): 26 PE vs. FGCU. Marcus Allen (JAX): 25 PEG vs. ETSU. Matthew Dotson (BEL): 23 PEG vs. FGCU. Andy Wicke (BEL): 21 PEG vs. FGCU. Brian Mills (MER): 21 PEG vs. Kennesaw. Alex Renfroe (BEL): 21 PEG at Stetson. Derrick O'Neal (FGCU): 21 PEG vs Lipscomb. Kyle Vejraska (CAM): 20 PEG at Kennesaw. James Florence (MER): 20 PEG on 24 points, 5 assists, and 4 steals against Kennesaw. Yes, that's a lot of missed shots. Junard Hartley (CAM): 19 PEG against FGCU with 9 points, 8 assists

Cool stats -- Campbell had 24 assists on 28 baskets against FGCU. Lipscomb and Stetson combined for 38 points in overtime. Campbell and Mercer combined to shoot 75 free throws in a game that the Camels led by as many as 28 and won by 19.

Settling In

2009-01-30T16:00:00.000-06:00

Back from Colorado.

The weekend was not too terribly eventful. UNF won at Stetson, and Mercer took Belmont to overtime before falling. The three strata in the conference are pretty well defined now. Jacksonville, Belmont, and ETSU are all 3 games clear of 4th place and within one game of each other. One game separates the other four tournament-eligible teams. Gulf Coast is the class of the transition schools, with the other three pretty even.

Player of the Week is a five-way race this week, with Ben Smith, Mike Smith, Alex Renfroe, Lehman Colbert, and Kevin Tiggs all having solid weekends. Take your pick; I would have no quibble with any of them.

The current week is one of the longest of the season, running Wednesday through Monday. The biggest game of the weekend is tonight -- ETSU @ Jacksonville for first place.

Back In Town

2009-01-29T17:24:00.002-06:00

We're home from Colorado. The girls are on their way back from Nashville.

Northern Kentucky and southern Illinois got hammered by the snow and ice. The guy on the radio this morning said there was no food, fuel, or power from around Carbondale, Illinois to Cadiz, Kentucky.

Thoughts and prayers to all those affected.

When we got home, the trees were straining a bit under the weight of the ice. We lost a couple of branches off the big pine tree, and a few smaller branches were on the roof, but no major damage.

What I'm Up To

2009-01-26T00:15:00.002-06:00

Quick check-in from the road.

I'm in Loveland, Colorado right now, just trying to breathe. When it's this high up and this cold and you've got a wire in your chest, oxygen is something you learn not to take for granted.

I'm here for my grandmother's funeral. She passed away last Thursday in Oklahoma and will be buried next to Grandpa on Tuesday.

Yes, I will have a part in the funeral. What that entails remains to be seen.

I'll be back here when I get home.

"Nashville" is A-Sun-ese for "Uh Oh."

2009-01-20T15:53:00.000-06:00

Rough weekend for the Nashvile schools. Lipscomb drops to 2-6, losing at ETSU and at Upstate (???). Belmont squeezes by the Spartans, but gets run out of Johnson City.

Best Game of the Weekend -- Tough to choose. Six of the eleven games were decided by less than 5 points. 2 went to overtime:

ETSU 85, Lipscomb 82 (OT). Lipscomb jumped out to a 13-2 lead at lead by as much as 17 early in the second half. ETSU came back after the first TV timeout of the second half, going on a 15-2 run to cut the lead to 2. From then on, it was a seesaw. Courtney Pigram scored with one second left to force overtime, and Michael Lusk missed a potential tying 3-ball at the buzzer in OT to give ETSU the win.

Mercer 101, Stetson 98 (OT). Mercer had a working margin most of the first half, the lead fluctuating between 6 and 12. They couldn't quite put Stetson away in the second half, however, and Stetson pulled yet another rabbit out of a second-half hat, hitting 8 of 13 shots and 7 of 8 free throws in the last 6 minutes to erase a 12-point lead. They even had a shot to win after a James Florence turnover with 4 seconds left, but couldn't get the shot away. OT was more of the same, only this time with Mercer hitting everything in sight. The Bears hit all 3 FG attempts in OT plus 9 of their last 10 FTs to win by 3.

Player of the Weekend -- Calvin Henry, Mercer. 36 PEG (17 points, 12 boards, 9 blocks) in the win over Gulf Coast. 25 PEG (16 & 12 with 3 blocks) in the OT win over Stetson.

Honorable Mention PEG Scores -- Adnan Hozdic, Lipscomb (30 against ETSU). James Florence, Mercer (28 against Stetson). Ben Smith, Jacksonville (26 against Campbell). Bobby Davis, Upstate (26 vs. Lipscomb). Marcus Allen, Jacksonville (25 against Campbell). Jonathan Rodriguez, Campbell (24 against Jacksonville, 21 vs. UNF). Daniel Emerson, Mercer (23 vs. FGCU). Adam Solazzo, ETSU (23 vs. Lipscomb). Eric Diaz, Stetson (23 vs. Mercer). Kevin Tiggs, ETSU (23 vs. Belmont). Garfield Blair, Stetson (22 against Mercer, 21 vs. Kennesaw). Sheldon Oliver, Stetson (20 vs. Kennesaw). Ayron Hardy, Jacksonville (20 against Campbell). Courtney Pigram, ETSU (20 vs. Lipscomb).

Game Snippets

Jacksonville over North Florida -- Round 1 of the River City Rumble goes to the Dolphins. Never in doubt. JU went up 9 early, led by 24 before halftime, and won by 40.

Mercer over Gulf Coast -- Welcome home, Bears. Brian Mills and E. J. Kuysner brought solid efforts. Mercer got up 10 early, pushed it to 18 by halftime, winning by 25.

Stetson over Kennesaw -- Better game than the final score looked. The Owls led most of the first half, and were even up 8 90 seconds into the second half. Whatever Derek Waugh said worked, however, as the Hatters went on a 22-2 run to take control.

Belmont over Upstate -- The Spartans led by 12 with 3 minutes to go in the first half. Belmont cut it to 2 near halftime, but Upstate was back up 5 with 6 minutes to go. But Belmont got hot -- 4 of 7 shooting and 9 of 12 FTs in the last 6 minutes to get the lead and win by 4. Possible explanation about why this game was close: Belmont only got 41 minutes out of their bench players. Henry Harris did not play all weekend. No word as to why.

Jacksonville over Campbell -- Big road win for the Dolphins. 3 players post 20+ PEGs. 3 keys for Jacksonville here -- rebounding, rebounding, and rebounding. The Dolphins had a 21-13 board edge on their own misses. Plus they shot well on the road, which helps.

Kennesaw over Gulf Coast -- Wouldn't you know it. As soon as I start singing the Eagles' praises, they drop two straight. This one is particularly painful, as they led 16-3 at one point. Credit KSU for hanging tough, chipping away at the lead until finally pulling ahead. More credit for only committing 8 turnovers.

Upstate over Lipscomb -- Ouch. After playing so well at ETSU, to come out and lay an absolute egg at Upstate has to sting. Lipscomb came out flat, down as much as 10 in the first half, and this without Bobby Davis on the floor for the Spartans. The Bisons rallied, leading by 5 with 4 1/2 minutes left, but Upstate clamped down on defense, denying the Bisons a field goal the rest of the way. 4 Lipscomb turnovers later, Upstate is up 1 and a weird timeout/inadvertent whistle call sets the stage for one last defensive stand.

ETSU over Belmont -- Speaking of eggs. Belmont got par-boiled at ETSU Monday night. Nothign went right for the Bruins, shooting 28% from the field and only 20% (!!!) from 3-point range. ETSU didn't exactly set the world on fire offensively (sub 30% 3-point shooting, under 70% from the line, 15 turnovers), but the way things were going for the Bruins they didn't have to. A 16-2 first half run put them up 17. Once they hit the canvas, the Bruins simply never got up.

Campbell over North Florida -- Welcome back to the blog, Junard Hartley. UNF kept it close, leading in the second half and pulling within 2 in the last 3 minutes. But then, J-Rod goes J-Rod (offensive board, lay-up, block) ad Hartley sticks the dagger in with a 3-ball in he final minute to put the Camels up 7. Campbell did a good job taking care of the ball, committing a conference-weekend-low 6 turnovers.

ETSU and Jacksonville are tied at 7-1. Belmont is third at 6-2. Stetson, Mercer, and Campbell are all flirting with .500. Lipscomb is cruising toward a 7-seed in March, sitting 2-6 in a pack with the 4 transition schools.

See you next week.

This Weekend in the A-Sun

2009-01-13T15:47:00.000-06:00

Strep throat. Thanks for asking.

12 games to look at, so here we go:

Best Game of the weekend -- Campbell 69, Lipscomb 68. Back and forth all night, capped by a Junard Hartley buzzer-beater 3 -- his only points of the night -- for the win. Lipscomb did what they had to do defensively, limiting Jonathan Rodriguez to 4 points and 1 rebound for a season-low PEG of 6 and shutting out Kyle Vejraska completely, but the supporting cast stepped up big-time for an impressive road win.

Runner-up for Best Game -- FGCU 64, ETSU 61. The Bucs had a single-digit lead most of the way, but could never get separation. The Eagles bided their time, then struck late. Down 4 with 90 seconds left, Gulf Coast hit 2 FTs to cut the deficit in half. Then Reggie Chambers makes a huge steal, picking Courtney Pigram's pocket and going coast-to-coast, hitting the lay-up and drawing the foul. The free throw put Gulf Coast up 1 for the first time since the 17 minute park of the first half. ETSu held for the last shot, but Isiah Brown's jumper drew back iron and Gulf Coast got the board, icing the win with 2 more FTs. Big-time but overlooked stat: Gulf Coast had 16 steals on the night.

Player of the Weekend -- Garfield Blair (STET). His team went 1-2, but his play in the second half against Upstate may have saved the season. Blair posted PEGs of 26 and 22 in the losses and 23 in the win.

Best Players of the Weekend -- Calvin Henry (MER) 35 PEG on 11-12 FTs and 11 rebounds against UNF. Ayron Hardy (JAX) 26 PEG in beating Mercer. Alex Renfroe (BEL) 25 PEG against Campbell. Andy Wicke (BEL) 25 PEG against Lipscomb. Ben Smith (JAX) 24 PEG vs. Mercer. Kevin Tiggs (ETSU) 23 vs. Stetson; this is a recording. James Florence (MER) 22 PEG against UNF. Jon-Michale Nickerson (KENN) 22 PEG in the loss to Jacksonville.

Weird weekend for some big-name guys. Courtney Pigram had a PEG shutout against Stetson, and J-Rod was held to 4 at Lipscomb. Yet both teams won, and on the road at that.

Look out world, here come the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles. 4-3 in conference with weekend wins over Upstate, Stetson (!) and ETSU (!!!). Watch out especially if you're up early; that's right where they want you.

Game Snippets:

Gulf Coast over Statson. A 21-4 first half run by the Eagles erased an early deficit, and a 21-6 spurt in the second half put it out of reach. Stetson was game late, valiently closing a 22-point gap, but ran out of time, losing by 9.

UNF over Kennesaw. The Owls shoot 3-for-27 in the first 17 minutes of the second half, and the Ospreys win going away.

Jacksonville over Mercer. The Dolphins are starting to shoot the ball a little bit. 3 straight games with better than 50% FG shooting. Memo to Mercer: If last year wasn't proof enough that depth matters, this game should clinch it. The Big 3 were OK, but the rest of the team was never in the game. Jacksonville also rebounded almost half of their missed shots. To win on the road, you need depth, rebounding, defense, and good FT shooting. Mercer went 1-for-4.

ETSU over Stetson. Solid road win for the Bucs, with good production from role players. Oh, and Kevin Tiggs.

Gulf Coast over Upstate. Down 6 early, the Eagles mount runs of 16-2 and 11-0, then cruise home.

Belmont over Campbell. I think we made it angry. After an even first ten minutes, Belmont went on an 11-0 run to build a working margin. Then, up 12 in the second half, the Bruins went off. Belmont hit five straight 3-pointers and forced 4 turnovers and 10 straight Campbell misses in a 25-1 run that put the issue to bed. As for Campbell? A Nashville split is OK, but one would like to have seen them put up more than token resistance against Belmont.

Mercer over UNF. Calvin Henry returns to form. James Florence makes a lot of shots, but he takes a lot of shots. This is a recording. UNF put up a valiant fight into the second half, but Mercer made their FTs all night (gasp!) to keep the Ospreys at bay.

Jacksonville over Kennesaw. Rebounding, rebounding rebounding. Jacksonville pulled down 22 offensive boards on the night, compared to only 16 defensive rebounds by the Owls. Jacksonville also only committed 7 turnovers. Kennesaw hung tough, taking good care of the ball (9 turnovers), but the Dolphins on the boards were too much. 11 Jacksonville players played at least 10 minutes, and all 11 had at least 2 rebounds.

Stetson over Upstate: Season-saver. Stetson was coming off 2 losses, 3-3 in conference, and down 10 at home to Upstate in the second half (after being up 13 early) before rallying to win by 6.

Belmont over Lipscomb (Battle of the Boulevard I): Every bit of a battle. Belmont led the whole way, but Lipscomb would not fold. the Bruins had a couple of chances to put the game away, but came up empty. Lipscomb would rally, and Belmont would get some more distance. Sort of like a heavyweight fight everybody knows is going to the judges as soon as the fighters step into the ring. By the way, kudos to Hope Hines and Channel 5 for their coverage.

First Weekend Recap

2009-01-08T15:18:00.000-06:00

Best Game of the Weekend: ETSU 84, Jacksonville 82. Courtney Pigram goes for 39, Mike Smith hits a floater in the last 5 seconds, and it still almost isn't enough, as Travis Cohn misses a 3-ball at the buzzer that would have won it for the Dolphins.

Worst Game of the Weekend: Gulf Coast at Beloved Alma Mater. Teams combined for 100 missed shots, 57 fouls, and 41 turnovers. Zooks.

Player of the Weekend: Pigram. A PEG of 39 against Jacksonville, followed by 21 (24 points on 9-14 shooting) against Gulf Coast.

Other Notable Performances: Bobby Davis (USCU). 24 points and 16 boards against UNF. Daniel Emerson's 20 (!) rebounds at Campbell. Jonathan Rodriguez goes double-double against Mercer. Adnan Hozdic (BAM) posts 26 and 9 against FGCU.

Welcome to the Blog: Matt Gwynne of Campbell put up 17 and 9 against Kennesaw while missing only 2 shots. Reggie Chambers (FGCU) -- 20 points off the bench at Belmont.

Other Fun Stats: Home teams were 8-2 on the weekend. Tournament-eligible teams are 11-1 against transition teams in conference so far.

Stating the Obvious: Road team radio crews REALLY like to gripe about refs. It may be part of the job description since most of the people listening are fans of the school you represent, and granted refs called an average of 4 more fouls on visitors than home teams (up from the nationwide median of 2.2), and granted home teams shot 9 more free throws per game that road teams this weekend, but still. Have some dignity. You're not there to yell at the refs, you're there to call the game.

Where Things Stand, Part 2

2009-01-03T10:59:00.000-06:00

Gulf Coast -- 3-point shooting and FT shooting are in the top 3 in the conference, but they average close to 20 turnovers per game, resulting in a 9th-best PEP of 0.90. This is, however, against a decent schedule. Gulf Coast has run with some pretty big dogs this year (Michigan, Florida, Kansas), so as they play with teams their own size the numbers should improve. Derrick O'Neil has been the star (14.6 PEG), and Delvin Franklin and Reed Baker providing solid support. Weird: FGCU's opponents have taken 100 more 3-pointers than they have in 13 games, and only make 29.6% of them.

Conference Record Projection: 10-10

Jacksonville -- Speaking of strength of schedule. Georgetown, Florida State, Baylor, Ohio State, and Georgia Tech. No Transylvania moments, but the Dolphins are better for having played the games. More to the point, they're better than they look. Which is a good thing, because the numbers look a bit bleak. Jacksonville's opponents have made 48.5% of their FGs and 41% of their 3's, both last in the conference. Thus far, Ben Smith has been the leader, with decent help from Marcus Allen. But for Jacksonville to be as good as we thought they would be in the preseason, some other guys need to step up. Travis Cohn, Ayron Hardy, Evan Jefferson, and Lehman Colbert all have better game than the numbers have shown so far. The Dolphins will need that game if they want to make noise in the conference.

Conference Record Projection: 11-9

Kennesaw State -- Probably the opposite scheduling philosophy from Jacksonville and Gulf Coast, which makes apples-to-apples comparisons difficult. Kennesaw is shooting the ball well and doing a passable job defensively. Jon-Michael Nickerson has been the Owls' best player so far, with solid support from Kelvin McConnell. The problem is the rest of the guys haven't really done much. This does not bode well for conference play. J. D. Pollock's knee injury is a major hit. Very few point guards in this league take care of the basketball as well as he does.

Conference Record Projection: 11-9

Lipscomb -- Who knows, really. They can lose at home to Tennessee Tech and on the road at Elon, but then win in Assembly Hall. Exactly the sort of up-and-down season you might expect from a team that starts 5 sophomores. The numbers look promising, but inconsistent. 2-point and FT shooting are the best in the conference, but 3-pointers are second-worst. Lipscomb may actually look better than they really are, as opponent FT% is only 56.5%. The conference as a whole shoots 68% from the foul line. If Lipscomb can keep making their free throws, limit the amount of shots they take from beyond the arc, and most importantly play consistent defense, they could be pretty good. This team reminds me a lot of Belmont last year in terms of balance; Adnan Hozdic and Brandon Brown are as close as they have to all-conference type players, but seven other guys are making significant contributions. That said, they're young. We'll see if they can keep it up.

Conference Record Projection: 14-6

Last four later . . .

Where Things Stand

2009-01-02T12:13:00.000-06:00

Conference play begins in earnest tomorrow, so here's where things sit going in:

Belmont -- Still the best 3-point shooting team in the league. FT shooting is down. Backcourt numbers look good, but inside play needs work. Defense is a bit worrisome (1.14 PEP, 9th in the conference). Won at Austin Peay and at home against MTSU, lost a close one at Tennessee. Andy Wicke and Alex Renfroe have averaged double-digit PEGs.

Conference Record Projection: 12-8

Campbell -- Second-best shooting team in the conference. By far the fastest pace (76.3 P/40). Can they keep running that speed? We'll see. They must take better care of the basketball. Rebounding has been good. Campbell is still pretty much a one-man show, with Jonathan Rodriguez averaging a PEG north of 19 and nobody else within 10. Lorne Merthe has been OK, but the Camels simply need more production from Kyle Vejraska and Junard Hartley if they're going to be a factor.

Conference Record Projection: 10-10

ETSU -- Top shooting percentage in the conference. Extra good inside the arc. Scary-good defensively. Only conference team to hold it's pre-conference schedule under 40% from the floor. Opponents averaged four more turnovers than assists per game. Won five of six in December, including two conference wins and a win at Marshall. Courtney Pigram and Kevin Tiggs are in the conversation for league MVP, and Mike Smith is contributing nicely.

Conference Record Projection: 16-4

More to come . . .

Ain't Nothin' But a Family Thing

2008-12-31T17:30:00.000-06:00

I first discovered college football when I was 7.

I'm sure I had seen games before that, because I knew the rules and followed the action fairly easily. But the first game I remember watching -- really watching, start to finish -- was the 1982 Orange Bowl. My dad grew up in Nebraska, but as a military family the only time we got to watch the Cornhuskers play was when they played a) Oklahoma or b) in a bowl game. In our house, the Nebraska-Oklahoma game had its own batch of traditions -- the "guys vs. girls" division of rooting, Mom putting her Sooners hat on top of the TV. But the first time I really noticed how much fun college football could be was New Year's Night, 1982. Clemson vs. Nebraska. Mom & Dad both watched the game and, for the first time, let me stay up all the way to the end.

Pretty cool when you're seven.

Over the years my college football fandom has been what could be best described as a "lovers' quarrel." There's a lot not to like, most of which centers around the letters E, N, P, and S. You can probably guess what order those letters belong in. From the MNC -- "Meaningless National Championship" -- to all manner of Heisman Trophy controversies to the sham that is the BCS, the sport makes it hard to be a fan if you don't have a rooting interest in one particular team. In 2007, I set a record for fewest games watched in a season -- three.

But that said, I still love the game. Thanksgiving wasn't as interesting this year as it was in the Switzer-Osborne days, but I still found myself holding my breath when Nebraska launched that 57-yard FG to beat Colorado. Vanderbilt's first trip to a bowl game in 26 years has made for an interesting season watching their fans. In fact, I have the Music City Bowl open in another window right now as I'm writing this. The Big XII South controversy, though, reminded me why I didn't miss the game last year.

Now to be fair, college basketball has a lot of problems, most of which (again) stem from those four letters. Money teams from money conferences dominate the game. Period. They draw eyeballs to TV's. They sell tickets. And they get the vast majority of the spots in the NCAA tournament. Last year, schools that spent $2 million or more on men's basketball got 32 of 34 at-large bids.

But Sunday night, none of that mattered.

Sunday night, I was the Dad, introducing the team I love playing the game I love to my own 6-year-old. My daughter Erica had seen enough basketball to understand the basics; players try to put the ball in the hoop, how far away you are determines how many points you get, and the team in white usually wins. Erica has had her moments with basketball before. Last year she picked Memphis to make the national championship game, and when they did, she won our annual family basketball picking contest.

But Sunday night, for the first time in four years, Erica and I were in front of a TV while Lipscomb was playing on the screen.

Speaking of lovers' quarrels. When Lipscomb made the move to NCAA Division I, I was among many alumni who sounded the alarm that this might not be the best of ideas. In the last eleven years, the entire athletic department has produced maybe half a dozen winning seasons. Lipscomb, once a small-college athletic juggernaut, had jumped into the deep end and was constantly getting its head pushed under the water by the bigger, cooler kids. Even in the section of the pool reserved for the little guys, Lipscomb was a punching bag. Sure, there was the occasional highlight (taking Belmont to overtime in the conference title game the NIT year, volleyball and baseball making the NCAA tournament), but for the better part of the last decade being a Lipscomb fan has not been too terrible much fun.

But like it or not, Lipscomb is my school. I met my wife there. Her parents both went there. In college, I helped out making game tapes for the women's basketball team. Lipscomb basketball is in my blood, and in Erica's DNA.

Sunday night, Lipscomb played at Indiana. The game was on the Big Ten Network, and since we were visiting my parents in Arkansas we got to watch the game live. We cmae home from church expecting to see the typical major vs. mid-major score, only to find Lipscomb ahead -- ahead, I tell you -- early in the second half. The last fifteen minutes of the game, neither team led by more than four. That is, not until Jimmy Oden hit two free throws to put the Bisons up 5 in the last 10 seconds.

I remember being a seven-year-old, seeing how excited my Dad was to watch his team play in a bowl game. Even though Nebraska lost the game -- forcing my Dad, the writing staff of Jeopardy, and the rest of Husker Nation to wait another 12 years for their MNC -- I'll never forget what it was like to watch my Dad as his team took the lead on Clemson in the second quarter. It's a memory I will treasure until the day I die.

Sunday night -- when the final horn went off, my hands went in the air, and I yelled loudly enough to set off the Christmas tree -- a six-year-old little girl got to see her Daddy celebrate. Maybe one day she will look back on that night the same way I remember that Orange Bowl.

Even though the guys in the white shirts lost.

Four! Four Transylvania! Ah, ah, ah . . .

2008-12-31T15:46:00.000-06:00

Lipscomb 74, Indiana 69.

I still can't believe I just typed that.

Lipscomb 74.

[deep breath]

Indiana

[deep breath again]

69.

Sunday night I was in Arkansas at my parents' house. We came home from church in time to catch the second half on the Big Ten Network, part of my parents' AT&T TV package. By the time I got the TV turned on, Lipscomb had rallied from a 21-point first half deficit, using 11-0 and 18-0 runs to take a 3-point lead. Michael Teller had the best game (PEG of 27, including 19 points, 6 boards, and 4 assists) but Adnan Hozdic was the hero, scoring twice in the last 2 1/2 minutes to give Lipscomb the lead. Jimmy Oden also came up huge, making several big plays on defense (including a memorable one against the Big Ten Network broadcast table) and hitting the icing free throws in the final minute.

When the game was over I yelled so loudly I set off my Mom's motion-sensitive singing Christmas egg.

BALL GAME!

2008-12-28T19:15:00.000-06:00

Too happy to type.

Lipscomb 74, Indiana 69.

Indi-freakin'-ana.

Transylvania report when I get home from vacation Wednesday.

WOO HOO!!!

It's Over! It's Over!

2008-12-19T13:08:00.000-06:00

I usually don't say much about non-conference games win or lose unless it's a BIG win, but this is huge. The seventh seal has been opened. Odin has declared Ragnarok. Marvin Martian has pulled the lever. Make peace with your maker. Do whatever it is you do when the end of days is as hand.

North Florida won a road game.

In their fourth year as an NCAA D-1 school, in "only" their 55th attempt, the North Florida Ospreys finally won their first game away from home. Last night, they knocked off Furman 77-66. Eni Cuka was the hero of the night, pouring in 27 points on 8 of 12 shooting for a PEG of 24. Stan Januska added a 22 PEG night of his own. But this was a team win in every sense of the word. In addition to shooting an uncharacteristically-high 81.8% from the foul line (including 19 of 24 in the last 5 minutes), the Ospreys hit 12 of 17 FGs in the second half. Throw in the team's best defensive first half of the year (possibly ever) and you have all the ingredients of a road win.

Yet another reason to love the Atlantic Sun: The Ospreys spent game day in the hotel lobby playing what UNF media guy Shawn Lafata called -- wait for it -- "a massive chess tournament." No word who won, but come on now. How cool is that?

Speaking of big games, get a load of tomorrow's line-up:

Lipscomb @ N. C. State
Gulf Coast @ Butler
Belmont @ Tennessee
Stetson @ Missouri
Upstate @ Fresno State
Mercer @ UCLA

If you Google "Transylvania" Sunday and end up here, I'm probably a happy man.

Why I Do What I Do

2008-12-17T20:23:00.000-06:00

I'm not a journalist. I don't even play a reasonable facsimile of one on the Intergoogles. I've never "covered" a game. Because of where I live, financial and family obligations, a day job, etc., I haven't even been to a game in 5 years.

I'm just a guy who went to a small school that suddenly finds itself on a big stage. Jim Rome thinks we're the reason the NIT sucks. Verne Lundquist said our name on CBS Saturday (one of Indiana's upcoming opponents). In my world, that's a big deal.

I'm not a Professional Journalist. Nor am I a comedian. If you're looking for Grantland Rice-ish ambiance, Recapbot game stories, rabid fandom, or body part jokes, go somewhere else.

I simply love my school, basketball, and playing with numbers.

Lately, I have also fallen in love with the teams my school plays. There are some great stories there for someone with enough time, access, and talent to dig them out. I know about a few of them -- Bob Hoffman being exonerated by the NCAA after it imposed show-cause orders on some of his former co-workers, the under-the-radar class of the Lipscomb-Belmont rivalry, the general awesomeness that is Jonathan Rodriguez. But lacking any of the above (time, access, awesomeness), I rely on what I can glean from media reports, and write what I see in the numbers.

Hence, the Atlantic Sun Blog.

Maybe there is a market out there for fan-jabbering about a small conference of small schools in the middle of Nowhere-midmajor-vania. If so, I hope somebody good fills it -- and not with Deadspin-ish blather about who has the hottest cheerleaders, either. But for right now, aside from newspaper beat writers and SID's (who are paid to be there) and Kyle Whelliston (also paid, only less so), there's just me.

So I write for me. And that's fine. I'll never be a correspondent for the WWL. I don't pretend to believe that anybody else cares about me or my subject. I'm perfectly content to use the ASB as an online diary, my own way of enjoying a season I wish I could get closer to but choose not to for reasons listed above. If Junard Hartley's mom happens by and sees the nice things I wrote about her son, that's cool too.

And if some of those "paid" professionals like what they see -- or are at least encouraged to keep doing what they're doing simply because I am out here and exist -- then I've done more good than I set out to do.

O'Neill, Baker Hold Off Campbell

2008-12-17T11:39:00.000-06:00

Somehow I overlooked this gem of a game from the weekend:

Gulf Coast 72, Campbell 68. Reed Baker and Derrick O'Neil each post PEGs over 20 (Baker 27, O'Neil 24) for FGCU. The game was fast but sloppy; 77 possessions per team led to a combined 44 turnovers and 8 of 31 3-point shooting. Both teams best players had off nights -- Jonathan Rodriguez had only 12 points to go with 6 turnovers, and FGCU's Delvin Franklin turned the ball over 7 times to post a PEG of 0 despite scoring 14 points. That's hard to do.

The game turned on an intentional foul call with less than 5 minutes to go. Up by 5, FGCU got the ball back when Derrick O'Neil picked Junard Hartley's pocket, then was fouled by Preston Dotson. O'Neil hit both free throws, then found Ed Rolax for a lay-up to put the Eagles up 9. 4 Gulf Coast turnovers in the final 81 seconds gave the Camels a shot, but they couldn't quite get there at the end.

Three To Go

2008-12-16T14:36:00.000-06:00

Former Lipscomb basketball coach Don Meyer posted career win #900 Saturday.

If you don't know the story, read the articles from ESPN and Spots Illustrated. Buster Olney and Grant Wahl give the chase for Bob Knight's record the professional treatment it deserves, far better than I could.

So we're in the eleventh season since Lipscomb joined Division 1. Five years ago, I asked which would come first -- Lipscomb beats a BCS-conference team or Don Meyer breaks the all-time coaching wins record. On December 28th, Coach Meyer goes for win #901, one short of Bob Knight. That same day, Lipscomb plays at Indiana. And even better -- the senior point guard for Northern State is from Bloomington.

Weird.

Fun with PEGs

2008-12-16T13:15:00.000-06:00

Perhaps my favorite "accident" related to calculating PEG scores is how they have pointed out remarkable performances that would otherwise be overshadowed in the box score.

Case in point, Junard Hartley.

Who? I'm glad you asked. Junard Hartley is a 6'3" sophomore guard for Campbell. He started 24 games at point guard for the Camels last year, but playing in the substantial shadow of Jonathan Rodriguez, didn't post a lot of numbers. Now a sophomore, Hartley has only taken 17 shots in 8 games (making 9 of 11 two-pointers), and despite being an 80%+ FT shooter, only gets to the line twice per game. Basically, he's a good player who knows his role and fills it well. Campbell doesn't need him to shoot every possession. They need a point guard who hustles on defense, takes care of the basketball, and creates opportunities for Rodriguez and Vejraska.

Last night against Stetson, Hartley did his job well enough to post a game-high PEG of 20. His 11 points came with only 1 missed FG (a 3) and one missed FT. He only had one assist, but also only one turnover. He also pulled down 8 defensive rebounds and nabbed 2 steals. He was also part of a team that held Stetson's solid back court duo of A.J. Smith and Garfield Blair to 7-19 shooting and more turnovers than assists.

The bad news for Campbell is that they are 0-2 in conference. The good news is that they went on the road and played Stetson even (team PEGs wee both 62 in a 66-possession game). If the Camels can just keep doing what they're doing, watch out.

Hi, I'm Mike Smith, and I'll Be Your Player of the Night

2008-12-09T14:30:00.000-06:00

In a 20-point win over Mercer, the ETSU junior shot 50% from the floor en route to 20 points and 8 boards for a PEG of 24. This game also saw the first ejection of the A-Sun year, as Bears coach Bob Hoffman was tossed midway through the second half. Daniel Emerson continues to be Mercer's best player, putting in 20 points on 7-9 shooting against ETSU.

Mike Smith's performance Friday night was matched by Jacksonville's Ben Smith Saturday afternoon. The Dolphin point guard made 7 of 9 shots and added 5 assists to post a 24 PEG as Jacksonville knocked off Lipscomb. Jacksonville put the game away early in the second half, when they went on an 8-minute scoring binge making 9 of 10 shots, including a 5-possession stretch where they scored 14 points. Lipscomb? Defense? Not so much. Jacksonville shot the lights out, hitting 15 of 22 2's and 6 of 9 3's in the second half. Jacksonville also rebounded well, picking up 50% of the possible offensive boards.

Across town, Belmont had no problem with North Florida. The Ospreys were able to hang tough for about 8 minutes, but a 3-point Bruin lead at the second media timeout was 10 four minutes later, 16 at half, and hit 34 before it was over. Belmont's bench played 100 minutes, a season-high for a team whose starters only average 24 minutes per game anyway. Potential sign of trouble: Belmont shot under 60% from the foul line. We expected that with Justin Hare graduating Belmont's FT % would drop, but this is not good.

Stat of the Night: In Lipscomb's two wins this year, their opposition has shot 30.6% from the floor in the second half. In their four losses, the other guys shoot 56.7%. Saturday, Jacksonville was 21 of 31.

Tonight, Campbell takes on VMI (yes, Kentucky fans, that VMI). The big question is whether Jonathan Rodriguez will score 50. My guess is yes.

Jacksonville 65, Belmont 64

2008-12-05T15:04:00.000-06:00

Do not -- I repeat, do NOT -- go to sleep on the Jacksonville Dolphins this year.

While Mercer has been the headline-maker this December, Jacksonville has quietly posted five near-misses against NCAA and NIT teams from last year. They opened the year with five straight losses, but in every game they have battled back from significant deficits to make the game competitive. Still, they needed a win.

Last night they got one.

Down 19 to Belmont at halftime, Jacksonville rallied, holding the typically-reliable Bruin shooting to 5-for-22 in the second half. The Dolphins also hit 22 of 26 second-half free throws, including 2 by Ben Smith in the last 10 seconds.

But the game was as strange for Belmont as it was typical for Jacksonville. For instance, Rick Byrd usually runs a 9 or 10-man rotation, with the bench accounting for an average of almost 80 minutes of playing time. Last night non-starters only played a total of 49 minutes. Belmont came in averaging 12 turnovers per game. Last night? 22. Belmont also missed the front end of a one-and-one twice in the second half, a bad sign when you're playing a good team on the road.

Player of the Night: Marcus Allen (JAX) -- 21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 3 steals for a PEG of 24.

Other games: Lipscomb cruises to a 69-54 win over North Florida. Adnan Hozdic led the way for Lipscomb with a PEG of 19. North Florida had Stetson on the ropes and should have had the huge road upset, but 6 turnovers in the last 2 1/2 minutes resulted in an 18-0 Stetson run to turn a 13-point deficit into a 5-point win. This just in: A. J. Smith and Garfield Blair are pretty good.

Weird stat of the night: Stetson and FGCU combined for 29 offensive rebounds, but only 7 second-chance points. Another fun stat: Teams that lost last night were only 3-of-8 on the front end of a one-and-one in the second half. Winning teams were 6-of-9.

Coming up: ETSU is at Mercer tonight. The Nashville schools swap gyms in Jacksonville Saturday afternoon.

Memo to Eric Yutzy and Steve Wrigley: Take the sock out of your mouths and REPORT THE LOCAL SOCREBOARD! I'm not asking you to send 2 camera crews to Jacksonville to cover A-Sun road games in December. I'm not even asserting that a Belmont or Lipscomb (or MTSU, or Austin Peay, or whoever) game tonight is bigger news than a Titans game yesterday or tomorrow. But can we at least 7 seconds for scores, even on title cards? About the only sports reporting ESPN doesn't do is to cover local teams. Please, do your job. In this media age, it's all you have left.

Three! Three Transylvania! Ah ah ah . . .

2008-12-03T14:30:00.000-06:00

East Tennessee State 76, Marshall 72

Somebody pull Kevin Tiggs off Marshall.

The senior posted a season-best PEG of 29, leading the Bucs to an upset of the Marshall Thundering Herd. Tiggs played all 40 minutes, posting 4 steals and 4 rebounds to go with -- oh, nothing -- 31 points. Mike Smith iced things with the last 2 of his 16 points coming at the line in the last 10 seconds.

ETSU shot lights-out all night, hitting 8 of their first 12 shots and 70% of their 2's in the first half. They will probably want to tighten up a little on defense; 72 points in 65 possessions is higher than they like to see, especially against a team that shoots as many 3's as Marshall does. By the time Belmont rolls around, that points allowed per possession number needs to be a bit lower.

But then again, if the Bucs can keep up that hot shooting touch, they will be tough for anybody to beat.

In other news, Mercer had one of its more balanced games this year in a 74-64 win over Upstate. Calvin Henry posted 16 points, 12 boards, and 6 blocks en route to a PEG score of 31. Daniel Emerson added 16 points and 12 boards, with James Florence dishing out 8 assists. This was probably one of the slowest games you'll see in the conference this year, with only 65 possessions.

Weird stat of the night: Upstate was 6-6 at the FT line, only committed 2 (!) turnovers, and lost by 10.

And We're Off

2008-12-02T14:11:00.000-06:00

The A-Sun season got underway in earnest last night, with Kennesaw State knocking off winless Upstate 66-64. John-Michael Nickerson hit a running one-hander with less than a second left to win it. Nickerson's PEG of 24 led all comers.

Neither team led by more the 3 in the last 15 minutes.

Upstate goes to Mercer tonight. Six other teams get underway Thursday.

J-Rod Being J-Rod

2008-11-25T13:41:00.000-06:00

Stop me if you've heard this before.

Campbell's Jonathan Rodriguez posted the individual performance of the season so far in a 97-92 loss to VMI last night. Rodriguez posted 23 points and 14 rebounds en route to the A-Sun's first PEG score of 30 so far this year. VMI, as they did against Kentucky last week, raced out to a big first-half lead, then ran out of gas as Campbell crept closer. The lead was down to one with under a minute left, but the Keydets hit their free throws late to put the game away. Credit the Camels for playing a disciplined game, launching only 11 3-point attempts in an 82-possession game. Of course, 23 turnovers are more than you would want to see, even in a game as frenetic as this one was.

Tonight, Belmont visits Pittsburgh.

Two Near-Misses

2008-11-24T14:20:00.000-06:00

I guess three in a row is too much to ask.

Stetson had a look at its first major upset this weekend, while Mercer had #3 in its sights. Both teams had a shot at the buzzer, but both came up empty.

Apparently, somebody at Stetson is none to happy about the officiating of their game with Florida State. I'm not going to criticize a crew unless I watch the game (and even then, probably not), but the numbers are what they are. Stetson had 13 free throw attempts in the game. Florida State had 13 in the second half, after 21 in the first.

That said, the Hatters came from 16 down at halftime, making 61% of their 2's and 53% of their 3's in the second half, outscoring FSU by 20 over an 8-minute stretch. Stetson led by 7 with less than 9 minutes left, but then hit a dry spell, going 1 of 8 from the floor during a 6-minute, 16-3 Seminole run.

Stetson had a shot to tie late, pulling down a rebound with 9 seconds left down 2. But A.J. Smith's drive drew contact but no whistle and the clock ran out. Garfield Blair was the player of the night for Stetson, putting up 19 points and 7 boards.

Mercer also had a good look at an ACC upset this weekend, but fell to Georgia Tech in overtime. The current leaders of the RPI had a shot at the buzzer to win in regulation, but James Florence's jumper was tipped. Tech then jumped out to a quick 6-point lead in overtime and never looked back. E. J. Kuysner had a big night, burying 6 3-pointers on his way to 22 points and a PEG score of 18. Calvin Henry and James Florence each posted a PEG of 17, albeit in drastically different ways. Florence was his usual self, scoring 26 points on 24 shots and handing out 6 assists while committing 7 turnovers. Henry was quieter, but no less effective, posting 8 points and 8 boards on 3-3 shooting.

Two! Two Transylvania! Ah, Ah, Ah . . .

2008-11-20T10:16:00.000-06:00

Mercer just might win the SEC West this year.

Dominating Auburn on the offensive glass, the Mercer Bears pulled off their second straight road win against an SEC opponent, topping the Tigers 78-74. I've often said that in a guard-oriented conference, the team that controls the backboards controls the game. Stat of the night: Mercer missed 29 shots, but pulled down 14 (!!!) offensive rebounds. On Auburn misses, Mercer controlled the boards by a 32-6 margin.

Daniel Emerson was huge once again, adding 12 rebounds and 4 assists to his 12 points, for a PEG of 18 in 40 minutes of action. James Florence scored 25 points on 7-19 shooting and 7-10 free throws. As a team, Mercer shot 76% from the FT line for the night, compared to Auburn's 57%.

If Coach Bob Hoffman wants something to yell at his guys about, though, it's probably turnovers. Florence coughed the ball up 8 times, Emerson 4 more. 19 turnovers won't win you a lot of 70-possession games, even in the A-Sun.

Next up for Mercer: Georgia Tech on Saturday.

Jeopardy Update

2008-11-19T20:22:00.002-06:00

It's Kentucky week on Jeopardy!

Last night, Shelby Malone of Grayson and Jay Schraeder of Lexington played in the Teen Tournament semis. And Friday, a preacher from Todd County will be in the GSN re-run at 11 a.m. Will he have any better luck this time? Will he get that elusive Daily Double in Classical Music and parlay that into a stunning upset? Will he at least make his arrow point the right way in Final Jeopardy?

Find out Friday morning.

Thumbnail Preview -- Stetson

2008-11-19T12:55:00.000-06:00

Last Year: 16-16 overall, 11-5 in conference, good for third place. Lost to Gardner-Webb in the tournament quarterfinals.

Losses: Just one -- role player J. J. Hirst. Last year, Hirst was one of nine Hatters to average more than 12 minutes per game.

Key Returners: Everybody else. And I do mean everybody. Stetson will start two seniors (Garfield Blair and Tim Lang) and three juniors (A. J. Smith, Sheldon Oliver, and Mark Louhuis). They also have two seniors (Eric Diaz and Kris Thomas) and a junior (Brandon Williams) who saw significant minutes last year.

Show Me Numbers: If any team in the A-Sun wins with defense, it's Stetson. Last year they held conference opponents under 28% from 3-point range, led the league in field goal defense, and were second in scoring defense. That said, what Stetson does well on defense will have to make up for some significant weaknesses on the offensive end. Stetson was at the bottom of the tournament-eligible teams last year in Points per possession, PEP, and PEG. Yet despite a relatively poor showing on the offensive end, they still went 11-5 in conference.

Quick Analysis: The big question for Stetson is whether their offense or defense will be closer to "average" this year. Typically, having experienced players means two things. 1) You do better in close games. 2) You play better defense, and for longer stretches. If Stetson comes into this year in good physical condition and puts the same level of effort into defending the basketball as they did last year, I suspect the offense will come around somewhat.

Stat Projection: Offensively, Stetson projects to have a 0.89 PEP and 60.18 PEG, both near the bottom of the conference. But Stetson is all about defense, so we'll see.

One! One Transylvania! Ah Ah Ah . . .

2008-11-18T15:01:00.000-06:00

Welcome to the A-Sun, Daniel Emerson.

In the first big-time upset of the A-Sun season so far, Mercer went into Tuscaloosa and shocked SEC stalwart Alabama, 72-69. Emerson backed up his 16 point, 19 rebound (!!) performance against Piedmont with 18 points and 6 boards on 7 of 10 shooting to lead the Bears against the Crimson Tide. Emerson's PEG scores of 24 and 20 were tops in the conference for the weekend.

James Florence also came up big at the end, finding Calvin Henry underneath the basket for the go-ahead lay-up, then stealing the in-bounds pass and hitting 2 free throws to put Mercer up 3 with under 10 seconds to go. Henry posted a team-high PEG score of 23 against Alabama, pulling down 13 rebounds and blocking 5 shots to go with 9 points.

In other news, kudos to Jacksonville for taking on a couple of big dogs (Georgetown and Florida State) and giving them all they wanted. The Dolphins came from 17 down at the last media timeout against the Seminoles to get within two, but ran out of time before they could get the last shot off. Against the Hoyas, Jacksonville came from 12 down at halftime to get within four in the last 5 minutes before Georgetown pulled away late to win by 9.

Belmont fell to Austin Peay 86-84 last night. After rallying from 9 down at the 5-minute mark to tie, Belmont forward Henry Harris was whistled for a foul with 0.2 seconds left. APSU hit the free throws and that was that. ETSU also lost on a last-second foul,squandering a four-point lead in the final minutes to lose to Hofstra, 76-75. Hofstra hit two free throws with 1.1 seconds left to win.

And Away They Go

2008-11-14T15:06:00.000-06:00

The regular season gets underway this afternoon and tonight, with five games Friday plus a handful over the weekend. Big-name match-ups: ETSU vs. Temple, Upstate @ Georgia, Stetson @ Texas. Florida State goes to Jacksonville Saturday. Upstate is at Notre Dame Sunday, while Mercer goes to Alabama. Jacksonville gets another bite at the apple Monday night when they go to Georgetown.

On the women's side, Mercer travels to Texas A&M tonight, and FGCU is at Florida State Sunday. The big night is Monday, with Jacksonville visiting Florida and Kennesaw State going to North Carolina.

Later: Previews of Stetson and Upstate. After that, I hope: Women's previews.

Thumbnail Preview -- North Florida

2008-11-13T12:43:00.000-06:00

Last Year: 3-26 overall, 1-15 in conference. Ineligible for the conference tournament during reclassification.

Losses: Tom Hammonds transferred to Lambuth. Chris Timberlake and James Grimball graduated.

Key Returners: Stan Januska, Devon Jones, and Jermaine Sparks are returning starters. Justin Cecil and Cortez Riley also saw significant minutes last year.

Show Me Numbers: Last year, UNF had seven games where they were tied or within six at the end of regulation. Winnable games, to be sure, but they need to find a way to do so. That said, the Ospreys lost over half of their production from last year, such as it was. Returning players only shot 57.3% from the FT line and 27.5% from 3-point range. As a team, they were last in the conference in every ball-in-hoop category.

Quick Analysis: Last season's numbers bear a striking resemblance to "rock bottom." The Ospreys hope not to go sideways this year. They should have a decent look at 40% FG shooting and 30% from 3-point range, but whether it will be enough to get up off the floor of the conference remains to be seen. UNF's best hope may be on the defensive end. They slow the game down nicely, and held all but 3 conference opponents under 80 points last year.

Stat Projection: 0.90 PPP, 0.98 PEP, and 67.52 PEG are all in the bottom two in the conference.

Thumbnail Preview -- Mercer

2008-11-12T17:36:00.000-06:00

Last Year: 11-19 overall, 6-10 in conference (tied for eighth). Lost to Jacksonville in the conference tournament quarterfinals.

Losses: Coach Mark Slonaker, contract not renewed. Starters Shadeen Aaron, Sam Dolan, and Brian Pfohl graduated.

Key Returners: Mercer returns five players who averaged 15+ minutes per game. Calvin Henry was Defensive Player of the Year last year. Despite his tendency to shoot his team out of games, James Florence was named all-conference last year and two years ago was the league's Outstanding Freshman.

Show Me Numbers: The four players gone off of last year's Bears roster combined to shoot better than 48% from the floor, by far the best-shooting senior class in the conference (sorry, Belmont.) Good news for new coach Bob Hoffman: Mercer was also the fastest team in the league last year, averaging close to 75 possessions per game. Looks like a good match between an up-tempo coach and an up-tempo team. The catch? The returning roster is tenth out of eleven teams in the conference in FG%, just under 40%. They take a lot of shots, but they miss a lot of shots.

Quick Analysis: On the plus side, Mercer has an experienced starting line-up to work with. The new coach comes in with a solid reputation; Coach Hoffman was the only assistant at Oklahoma under Kelvin Sampson to be completely exonerated by the NCAA in the phone call scandal -- no small feat, and one I would love a chance to explore with him in person one day. From here, Mercer reminds me of the "little girl who had a little curl right in the middle of her forehead. When she was good, she was very, very good, but when she was bad, she was horrid." In James Florence's shots are falling, they can beat anybody. If not, they can lose to anybody. Calvin Henry's defense will help, as will the fact that this is one of the oldest teams in the conference (only two freshmen and two sophomores on the roster). Given what they have to work with this year, and what they're up against in this league, I look for them to be a solid, middle-of-the-pack team.

Stat Projection: 1.05 PEP is in the bottom half of the league, and 77.79 PEG is in the top half. This probably places them somewhere in the middle.

Thumbnail Preview -- Lipscomb

2008-11-12T13:17:00.000-06:00

Last Year: 15-16 overall, 9-7 in conference. Lost at home in the conference tournament quarterfinals to ETSU.

Losses: Eddie Ard, probably the best all-around player in Lipscomb's NCAA era, was drafted by the NBA D-League. LaKory Daniels, the outside threat who opened the floor for Ard, averaged over 30 minutes per game. Jason Hopkins and Devon Seaford are also gone.

Key Returners: Thomas Pfaff and Michael Lusk are the only two seniors. Brandon Brown, Adnan Hozdic, and Josh Slater are all sophomores. Michael Teller returns from a medical redshirt last year.

Show Me Numbers: Lipscomb's returning players made fewer than 65% of their free throws. The Bisons also lose over 70% of their shot blocking. On the plus side, Lipscomb has the fourth-best returning roster of 3-point shooters, behind Belmont, Upstate, and Kennesaw. How the extra foot will impact them remains to be seen. Lipscomb is 33-5 at home in the last three years.

Quick Analysis: Get used to hearing about how young Lipscomb is. With two seniors and no juniors, Lipscomb's roster looks a lot like the one Billy Gillespie inherited at Kentucky. The Wildcats were five games off from Tubby Smith's final year, attributed mostly to inexperience. That said, five of the sophomores have played significant minutes, either last year or the year before. One advantage Lipscomb might have, but is difficult to quantify in advance, is their tendency to play some of the best defense in the conference. With the extended 3-point line, and more than a few players still learning their way around the offensive end, Coach Scott Sanderson's defense might be this team's saving grace this year.

Stat Projection: Lipscomb's projected PEP (1.14) and PEG (78.57) are near the middle of the conference. Alma mater, hail.

Elvis Has Entered the Building

2008-11-11T16:34:00.000-06:00

I just finished reading Kyle Whelliston's pre-season essay series. What I do as a hobby, he does for a living.

Why would anybody pay somebody to write about mid-major basketball? Check out Kyle. Not only is he passionate about the subject, but he can also write circles around 98% of the published English-speaking world.

Next up: Lipscomb preview.

Thumbnail Preview -- Kennesaw State

2008-11-11T12:06:00.000-06:00

Since the season starts this weekend, I'd better get cracking on these team previews.

Last Year: 10-20 overall, 7-9 in conference. Ineligible for the conference tournament during reclassification despite finishing seventh.

Losses: Ronell Wooten and Shawn Stegall graduated. KSU also lost three role players to transfer: Tanner Jacobs to Northern Kentucky, Keonte Keith to Columbus State, and Ryan Daugherty to Life College.

Key Returners: John-Michael Nickerson in the post and Kelvin McConnell outside. Nickerson led the team in blocked shots last year and McConnell was their best 3-point shooter.

Show Me Numbers: Kennesaw was second in the league last year in 3-point ratio (number of 3's attempted / total FG attempts). That number probably needs to come down this year, since last year the Owls made less than 31% of their 3's, and the line is a foot farther back this year. Kennesaw also played the third-fastest tempo in the league last year. Kennesaw has one of only two returning rosters that made fewer than 40% of its FG's last year.

Quick Analysis: If you are a Kennesaw State fan, you probably don't want to hear the words "regression to the mean." Take three starters off last year's overachieving team, move the three-point line back one foot, and the numbers do not look good. Kennesaw does have one strong suit that doesn't show up in the box score, however -- coach Tony Ingle. The man can flat-out coach. The school believes in him, having awarded him a contract extension in the off-season. Plus, the roster has nine newcomers, a group KSU fans are hoping will form the nucleus of the school's first foray into postseason play come 2010.

Stat projection: 1.08 PEP, 77.53 PEG, 0.94 PPP, assuming last year's 72.0 tempo. All three numbers fall between 7th and 10th in the conference.

Mid Major Top 25

2008-11-05T15:19:00.000-06:00

Day jobs being what they are, I'm still working on the next batch of previews. Next up, Kennesaw State.

That said, I found today that Belmont is #18 in the pre-season Mid-Major Top 25. Jacksonville is in the ARV category. As I mentioned in the preview, with the Dolphins' non-conference gauntlet, barring an upset they might not get a lot of attention going into January. But they are deep, hungry, and good.

Oh, and Lipscomb beat Freed-Hardeman by 4 in exhibition play last night. Hanging on to beat an NAIA team -- woo hoo. Alma mater hail.

About This Here Election Thing . . .

2008-11-03T14:32:00.002-06:00

What I think right now: John McCain is about 2 points closer to Barack Obama than the national and state polls indicate. The final margin in the popular vote will end up in the 3-5 point range.

What I think will happen tomorrow: In addition to the states he's almost certain to win, Obama will pick up Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and probably New Hampshire. Indiana will go for McCain. I don't know what will happen in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, or Ohio. But for McCain to win, he needs all of the solid red states, all of the "I don't know" states, AND either Pennsylvania or Colorado plus Virginia. Even if McCain only loses the nationwide popular vote by 3 points -- the most optimistic estimate I've seen -- I don't see how he can reach deep enough into the "probably blue" list of states to win.

What I'm doing tomorrow: For President, McCain. Too many people in both parties have demonstrated their inability to govern to make me believe that one party should monopolize the executive branch. McCain is most likely to pull from the deepest bench to find people to do the actual governing. For U. S. Senate, Bruce Lunsford. All I know about Mitch McConnell is that he was responsible for steering the bail-out bill through the Republican side of the Senate. For me, that's enough of a reason to fire him. For Congress, Ed Whitfield. Yes, I know, he promised when elected in 1994 that he would only serve 3 terms. If the Democrats had a worthwhile candidate to run against him, that might be enough to pull me in. But so far, not so good. For State House, Tim Thompson. Close call here, but for me the tiebreaker is casinos. For State Senate, Joey Pendleton. I'm not usually a big fan of incumbents, but for me a challenger needs to represent more of a change-of-pace if he wants to replace an experienced legislator. Again, a close call.

What I'll Be Watching Tomorrow: Exit poll demographics. How many 18-34 year olds will really come to the polls? The Obama people are banking on them, and they can ask President Howard Dean how well that typically works. U. S. Senate races. If Lunsford beats McConnell, look out. That probably means a nine-seat pick-up for the Democrats. I think +6 is way more likely, with McConnell, Saxby Chambliss, Norm Coleman, and Elizabeth Dole hanging on.

Bold Prediction: Obama wins the Electoral College 301-237 and the popular vote 71 million to 66 million (about 50 1/2 to 47 percent).

Thumbnail Preview -- Jacksonville

2008-10-30T16:01:00.000-05:00

Last Year: 18-13 overall, 12-4 in conference. Lost to Belmont in the tournament finals.

Key Returners: Just about everybody. Nine letter winners are back, including all five starters. Marcus Allen and Ben Smith were on my all-conference lists last year.

Show Me Numbers: The numbers look quite good for Jacksonville this year. They project to be in the top 3 in several key stats, including 2-point shooting, FT shooting, and preventing turnovers. They are also the second-most experienced team in the league, replacing only 157 out of 2,050 used possessions.

Quick Analysis: The Jacksonville Dolphins are deep, experienced, and hungry. They come off last year's conference finals defeat in great shape to make another deep run. Expectations are high, and their non-conference schedule is tough -- both good signs, since it is easier to get big-time non-conference games if the other team thinks you'll contribute 20+ wins to their RPI. One possible Achilles heel is the 3-ball, where they project to shoot under 32%. But since they shoot relatively few 3's for an A-Sun team (barely over 30% of FG attempts), if they can play from the lead they'll be fine.

Stat Projection: PEP 1.12, PEG 78.40, both good for fourth. They will also be in the top 3 defensively.

Will the Election Be Fair?

2008-10-29T12:22:00.002-05:00

I don't expect the American people to simply bend to my will like sheep. But is it too much to ask that the election be conducted in a fair way, with a voting process that allows differences of opinion to be expressed and weighed appropriately?

Apparently so.

According to Kenneth Arrow, a 1972 Nobel Prize-winning economist, it is mathematically impossible to construct a voting system by which five basic standards of "fairness" are satisfied. The standards:

-- Non-dictatorship. The system should allow for multiple opinions, not simply reflecting the opinion of one voter.

-- Universality. The election should result in a single, unique ordering of the choices every time the individual choices are expressed the same way.

-- Independence. Two choices should always finish in the same order no matter what other choices are offered. (Think Ross Perot '92 or Ralph Nader '00.)

-- Positive Association. Getting a higher ranking from an individual voter should always result in a higher overall ranking. (No "tactical voting.")

-- Sovereignty. Every candidate on the ballot should be able to finish in any possible order.

According to Arrow's Theorem, if there are at least two voters, and each voter has at least three choices, at least one standard of "fairness" will be violated. Whether it's the Electoral College, the BCS, the NCAA tournament selection process, or simply drawing names out of a hat, there will always be something to criticize.

So could our election system be better-run? Almost certainly. But will it ever be "fair?" Not in a million years.

Thumbnail Preview -- Florida Gulf Coast

2008-10-28T16:21:00.000-05:00

Last Year: 10-21 overall, 6-10 in conference

Losses: Just about everybody

Key Returner: Delvin Franklin started 15 conference games and averaged 27+ MPG for the year. Yup, that's about it.

Show Me Numbers: FGCU numbers are hard to come by, because they turn over so much of the roster. Their roster has 8 freshman, 3 new Juco transfers, and a transfer from Michigan. Thus, I'm basing my guess about their stats on what is typical for an A-Sun newcomer. Salt to taste.

Quick Analysis: I don't know if you can call it a "rebuilding year" when you only have two guys back. They might be good; they might not. Last year, the A-Sun was a young conference, so newcomers have a chance to shine. We'll see what a full roster of new people is capable of. In this conference, a "replacement level" roster lands them about in the middle, but that may be a bit optimistic. Or not.

Stat Projection: 1.10 PEP is middle of the pack. 76.95 PEG on a relatively slow pace is slightly below-average. But defensive conditioning might be an issue with so many freshmen.

Thumbnail Preview -- East Tennessee State Men

2008-10-24T16:31:00.000-05:00

Last Year: 19-13 overall, 11-5 in conference

Losses: Travis Strong, Andrew Reed, Kenyona Swader

Key Returners: Courtney Pigram, Kevin Tiggs, Mike Smith, and Jocolby Davis all averaged between 19.9 and 33.3 minutes per game.

Show Me Numbers: ETSU loses half of its 3-point attempts from last year. The Bucs were second in the conference in FT shooting last year. Like Belmont, they lose some reliability at the FT line, but their returning players shoot better than 70%, which for this league is still pretty good.

Quick Analysis: ETSU's history of running a short bench. 7 guys played close to 90% of their minutes in conference play. Four of the seven guys are back, but the rest of the roster is unproven. If their untested players are conference-level replacements, this could be a problem, especially if they play the up-tempo style they are accustomed to. This team will be made or broken on the defensive end of the floor. Slow the pace down just a touch, guard the fire out of the ball, and make good decisions offensively, and they should be fine.

Stat Projection: Offensively, the Bucs' projected 1.05 PEP and 77.80 PEG rank near the bottom of the conference, tied with Mercer for sixth among teams eligible for the conference tournament. They can, however, make up for the lack of offensive punch if they can defend. The big warning flag in the numbers is that they don't have much of a margin for error.