Last Year: 18-13 overall, 12-4 in conference. Lost to Belmont in the tournament finals.
Key Returners: Just about everybody. Nine letter winners are back, including all five starters. Marcus Allen and Ben Smith were on my all-conference lists last year.
Show Me Numbers: The numbers look quite good for Jacksonville this year. They project to be in the top 3 in several key stats, including 2-point shooting, FT shooting, and preventing turnovers. They are also the second-most experienced team in the league, replacing only 157 out of 2,050 used possessions.
Quick Analysis: The Jacksonville Dolphins are deep, experienced, and hungry. They come off last year's conference finals defeat in great shape to make another deep run. Expectations are high, and their non-conference schedule is tough -- both good signs, since it is easier to get big-time non-conference games if the other team thinks you'll contribute 20+ wins to their RPI. One possible Achilles heel is the 3-ball, where they project to shoot under 32%. But since they shoot relatively few 3's for an A-Sun team (barely over 30% of FG attempts), if they can play from the lead they'll be fine.
Stat Projection: PEP 1.12, PEG 78.40, both good for fourth. They will also be in the top 3 defensively.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Will the Election Be Fair?
I don't expect the American people to simply bend to my will like sheep. But is it too much to ask that the election be conducted in a fair way, with a voting process that allows differences of opinion to be expressed and weighed appropriately?
Apparently so.
According to Kenneth Arrow, a 1972 Nobel Prize-winning economist, it is mathematically impossible to construct a voting system by which five basic standards of "fairness" are satisfied. The standards:
-- Non-dictatorship. The system should allow for multiple opinions, not simply reflecting the opinion of one voter.
-- Universality. The election should result in a single, unique ordering of the choices every time the individual choices are expressed the same way.
-- Independence. Two choices should always finish in the same order no matter what other choices are offered. (Think Ross Perot '92 or Ralph Nader '00.)
-- Positive Association. Getting a higher ranking from an individual voter should always result in a higher overall ranking. (No "tactical voting.")
-- Sovereignty. Every candidate on the ballot should be able to finish in any possible order.
According to Arrow's Theorem, if there are at least two voters, and each voter has at least three choices, at least one standard of "fairness" will be violated. Whether it's the Electoral College, the BCS, the NCAA tournament selection process, or simply drawing names out of a hat, there will always be something to criticize.
So could our election system be better-run? Almost certainly. But will it ever be "fair?" Not in a million years.
Apparently so.
According to Kenneth Arrow, a 1972 Nobel Prize-winning economist, it is mathematically impossible to construct a voting system by which five basic standards of "fairness" are satisfied. The standards:
-- Non-dictatorship. The system should allow for multiple opinions, not simply reflecting the opinion of one voter.
-- Universality. The election should result in a single, unique ordering of the choices every time the individual choices are expressed the same way.
-- Independence. Two choices should always finish in the same order no matter what other choices are offered. (Think Ross Perot '92 or Ralph Nader '00.)
-- Positive Association. Getting a higher ranking from an individual voter should always result in a higher overall ranking. (No "tactical voting.")
-- Sovereignty. Every candidate on the ballot should be able to finish in any possible order.
According to Arrow's Theorem, if there are at least two voters, and each voter has at least three choices, at least one standard of "fairness" will be violated. Whether it's the Electoral College, the BCS, the NCAA tournament selection process, or simply drawing names out of a hat, there will always be something to criticize.
So could our election system be better-run? Almost certainly. But will it ever be "fair?" Not in a million years.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Thumbnail Preview -- Florida Gulf Coast
Last Year: 10-21 overall, 6-10 in conference
Losses: Just about everybody
Key Returner: Delvin Franklin started 15 conference games and averaged 27+ MPG for the year. Yup, that's about it.
Show Me Numbers: FGCU numbers are hard to come by, because they turn over so much of the roster. Their roster has 8 freshman, 3 new Juco transfers, and a transfer from Michigan. Thus, I'm basing my guess about their stats on what is typical for an A-Sun newcomer. Salt to taste.
Quick Analysis: I don't know if you can call it a "rebuilding year" when you only have two guys back. They might be good; they might not. Last year, the A-Sun was a young conference, so newcomers have a chance to shine. We'll see what a full roster of new people is capable of. In this conference, a "replacement level" roster lands them about in the middle, but that may be a bit optimistic. Or not.
Stat Projection: 1.10 PEP is middle of the pack. 76.95 PEG on a relatively slow pace is slightly below-average. But defensive conditioning might be an issue with so many freshmen.
Losses: Just about everybody
Key Returner: Delvin Franklin started 15 conference games and averaged 27+ MPG for the year. Yup, that's about it.
Show Me Numbers: FGCU numbers are hard to come by, because they turn over so much of the roster. Their roster has 8 freshman, 3 new Juco transfers, and a transfer from Michigan. Thus, I'm basing my guess about their stats on what is typical for an A-Sun newcomer. Salt to taste.
Quick Analysis: I don't know if you can call it a "rebuilding year" when you only have two guys back. They might be good; they might not. Last year, the A-Sun was a young conference, so newcomers have a chance to shine. We'll see what a full roster of new people is capable of. In this conference, a "replacement level" roster lands them about in the middle, but that may be a bit optimistic. Or not.
Stat Projection: 1.10 PEP is middle of the pack. 76.95 PEG on a relatively slow pace is slightly below-average. But defensive conditioning might be an issue with so many freshmen.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Thumbnail Preview -- East Tennessee State Men
Last Year: 19-13 overall, 11-5 in conference
Losses: Travis Strong, Andrew Reed, Kenyona Swader
Key Returners: Courtney Pigram, Kevin Tiggs, Mike Smith, and Jocolby Davis all averaged between 19.9 and 33.3 minutes per game.
Show Me Numbers: ETSU loses half of its 3-point attempts from last year. The Bucs were second in the conference in FT shooting last year. Like Belmont, they lose some reliability at the FT line, but their returning players shoot better than 70%, which for this league is still pretty good.
Quick Analysis: ETSU's history of running a short bench. 7 guys played close to 90% of their minutes in conference play. Four of the seven guys are back, but the rest of the roster is unproven. If their untested players are conference-level replacements, this could be a problem, especially if they play the up-tempo style they are accustomed to. This team will be made or broken on the defensive end of the floor. Slow the pace down just a touch, guard the fire out of the ball, and make good decisions offensively, and they should be fine.
Stat Projection: Offensively, the Bucs' projected 1.05 PEP and 77.80 PEG rank near the bottom of the conference, tied with Mercer for sixth among teams eligible for the conference tournament. They can, however, make up for the lack of offensive punch if they can defend. The big warning flag in the numbers is that they don't have much of a margin for error.
Losses: Travis Strong, Andrew Reed, Kenyona Swader
Key Returners: Courtney Pigram, Kevin Tiggs, Mike Smith, and Jocolby Davis all averaged between 19.9 and 33.3 minutes per game.
Show Me Numbers: ETSU loses half of its 3-point attempts from last year. The Bucs were second in the conference in FT shooting last year. Like Belmont, they lose some reliability at the FT line, but their returning players shoot better than 70%, which for this league is still pretty good.
Quick Analysis: ETSU's history of running a short bench. 7 guys played close to 90% of their minutes in conference play. Four of the seven guys are back, but the rest of the roster is unproven. If their untested players are conference-level replacements, this could be a problem, especially if they play the up-tempo style they are accustomed to. This team will be made or broken on the defensive end of the floor. Slow the pace down just a touch, guard the fire out of the ball, and make good decisions offensively, and they should be fine.
Stat Projection: Offensively, the Bucs' projected 1.05 PEP and 77.80 PEG rank near the bottom of the conference, tied with Mercer for sixth among teams eligible for the conference tournament. They can, however, make up for the lack of offensive punch if they can defend. The big warning flag in the numbers is that they don't have much of a margin for error.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Thumbnail Preview -- Campbell Men
Campbell
Last Year: 10-20 overall, 5-11 in conference
Losses: 30-game starter Reggie Bishop. Also Jake Wolfheil and Julius Perkins, plus several depth guys.
Key Returners: Jonathan Rodriguez, who last year got my unofficial vote for Player of the Year. Also back are Kyle Vejraska and Junard Hartley.
Show Me Numbers: Returning Campbell players made over 50% of their 2-point shots last year, but less than 32% of their 3's. Campbell lost 1/2 of their non-Rodriguez rebounding to graduation.
Quick Analysis: Jonathan Rodriguez is to Campbell what Eddie Ard was for Lipscomb. He's a really good player, but he needs a supporting cast around him to take some of the defensive pressure off. Thus, this year Campbell's success will hinge on how well they play in the paint. Inside shooting, combined with offensive and defensive rebounding will be the key stats to watch.
Stat Projection: On paper, Campbell looks pretty good. Their 1.21 projected PEP is second-best in the A-Sun. They also project to be 4th in FG% and second in FT%. If they play good defense and pick their spots from 3-point range, they'll definitely be higher in the standings than last year. I'm not quite ready to declare them the second-best team in the conference, but look for them to wear home jerseys on the first day of the A-Sun tournament.
Last Year: 10-20 overall, 5-11 in conference
Losses: 30-game starter Reggie Bishop. Also Jake Wolfheil and Julius Perkins, plus several depth guys.
Key Returners: Jonathan Rodriguez, who last year got my unofficial vote for Player of the Year. Also back are Kyle Vejraska and Junard Hartley.
Show Me Numbers: Returning Campbell players made over 50% of their 2-point shots last year, but less than 32% of their 3's. Campbell lost 1/2 of their non-Rodriguez rebounding to graduation.
Quick Analysis: Jonathan Rodriguez is to Campbell what Eddie Ard was for Lipscomb. He's a really good player, but he needs a supporting cast around him to take some of the defensive pressure off. Thus, this year Campbell's success will hinge on how well they play in the paint. Inside shooting, combined with offensive and defensive rebounding will be the key stats to watch.
Stat Projection: On paper, Campbell looks pretty good. Their 1.21 projected PEP is second-best in the A-Sun. They also project to be 4th in FG% and second in FT%. If they play good defense and pick their spots from 3-point range, they'll definitely be higher in the standings than last year. I'm not quite ready to declare them the second-best team in the conference, but look for them to wear home jerseys on the first day of the A-Sun tournament.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Thumbnail Preview -- Belmont Men
Belmont
Last year: 25-9 overall, 14-2 in conference. Finished first in the conference, won the conference tournament, gave Duke all they wanted in the NCAA's.
Losses: Justin Hare, Will Peeples, Andrew House, Stefan Baskin
Key Returners: Everybody else, really, but especially Shane Dansby.
Show Me Numbers: Belmont's returning roster shot just 64.5% from the FT line last year. 8 returning players averaged 10 or more minutes per conference game, and all but one played every game.
Quick Analysis: Belmont will miss Peeples' rebounding almost as much as they miss Hare's shooting. Last year, Belmont led the conference with both a 1.09 PPP and a 1.23 PEP, and they project to have similar numbers this year. Hare is a big loss, but with what they have coming back, watch out. Give those eight returning guys another year of experience, and they might actually be better. The keys will be free throw shooting and rebounding. Get used to hearing this: In a guard-oriented conference, how your big guys do in the middle and on the glass makes all the difference.
Stat projection (at the same pace as last year): 1.24 PEP, 88.92 PEG, both the highest in the conference.
Last year: 25-9 overall, 14-2 in conference. Finished first in the conference, won the conference tournament, gave Duke all they wanted in the NCAA's.
Losses: Justin Hare, Will Peeples, Andrew House, Stefan Baskin
Key Returners: Everybody else, really, but especially Shane Dansby.
Show Me Numbers: Belmont's returning roster shot just 64.5% from the FT line last year. 8 returning players averaged 10 or more minutes per conference game, and all but one played every game.
Quick Analysis: Belmont will miss Peeples' rebounding almost as much as they miss Hare's shooting. Last year, Belmont led the conference with both a 1.09 PPP and a 1.23 PEP, and they project to have similar numbers this year. Hare is a big loss, but with what they have coming back, watch out. Give those eight returning guys another year of experience, and they might actually be better. The keys will be free throw shooting and rebounding. Get used to hearing this: In a guard-oriented conference, how your big guys do in the middle and on the glass makes all the difference.
Stat projection (at the same pace as last year): 1.24 PEP, 88.92 PEG, both the highest in the conference.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Welcome
Welcome to what is, according to Google, the only blog in the entire Internet devoted to the Atlantic Sun Conference. We will pay special attention to basketball teams, but will take a look at other sports as the opportunity arises.
You'll notice a lot of statistics on this site, for several reasons. One, I'm an inveterate numbers geek. Two, I'm a cheapskate, so I rely on box scores and stat sheets to compensate for the fact that I live too far away to see many games. Three, there is a lot in the numbers that doesn't often get discussed, especially in a conference as small as the A-Sun.
In particular, when we discuss basketball, you'll see a couple of stats I call "PEG" and "PEP." "PEP" stands for "Positive Events per Possession" and "PEG" is "Positive Events per Game." These are in the tempo-free family of stats. On other sites (Basketball Prospectus, BBState, etc.) look for the word "Efficiency" and you'll get the idea.
I'm hoping to post a team-by-team preview of the season in the next couple of weeks. (Maybe a team a day, or one team per post, or something else). That said, I also have a full-time job and two other blogs, so if things aren't as regular as you might like hang with me. I'll do the best I can.
Off we go.
You'll notice a lot of statistics on this site, for several reasons. One, I'm an inveterate numbers geek. Two, I'm a cheapskate, so I rely on box scores and stat sheets to compensate for the fact that I live too far away to see many games. Three, there is a lot in the numbers that doesn't often get discussed, especially in a conference as small as the A-Sun.
In particular, when we discuss basketball, you'll see a couple of stats I call "PEG" and "PEP." "PEP" stands for "Positive Events per Possession" and "PEG" is "Positive Events per Game." These are in the tempo-free family of stats. On other sites (Basketball Prospectus, BBState, etc.) look for the word "Efficiency" and you'll get the idea.
I'm hoping to post a team-by-team preview of the season in the next couple of weeks. (Maybe a team a day, or one team per post, or something else). That said, I also have a full-time job and two other blogs, so if things aren't as regular as you might like hang with me. I'll do the best I can.
Off we go.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
I'm a Happy Boy
Sports Night, that 45-episode half-hour drama-dy that introduced the TV viewing public to dialogue magician Aaron Sorkin, is out with a 10th Anniversary DVD set.
If you remember the series from the late 90's, you know why this is such a happy thing.
If you've never seen Sports Night, do it. Now. Never mind the stellar cast (Robert Guillaume, Felicity Huffman, Peter Krause, and my favorites Sabrina Lloyd and Joshua Malina). Even if you're not a sports fan, don't worry; the TV show the characters are making are just the platform. The appeal is in the characters and the story.
If you're still not convinced, consider: this is the series that convinced NBC to make the first two seasons of The West Wing.
Two seasons. 45 episodes. One of the two or three best TV series of the decade.
If you remember the series from the late 90's, you know why this is such a happy thing.
If you've never seen Sports Night, do it. Now. Never mind the stellar cast (Robert Guillaume, Felicity Huffman, Peter Krause, and my favorites Sabrina Lloyd and Joshua Malina). Even if you're not a sports fan, don't worry; the TV show the characters are making are just the platform. The appeal is in the characters and the story.
If you're still not convinced, consider: this is the series that convinced NBC to make the first two seasons of The West Wing.
Two seasons. 45 episodes. One of the two or three best TV series of the decade.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
