Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 7, 2012

Bubble Breakdown: (Last 5 in, first 5 out)

Arizona -- Out. Behind Colorado State, South Florida, N. C. State, Drexel, and MTSU. May well need an autobid to get in.

Colorado State -- Out, for now. First team out. They can get in if something good happens for them (beating SDSU would be a good start) or if something bad happens to a team currently in the field.

Drexel -- Out, for now. That said, if Colorado State, South Florida, and N. C. State all underwhelm this week, the last spot could come down to them, Iona, and maybe MTSU. At that point, it's rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock.

Iona -- In, but barely. #37 on the At-large list, but the tiniest of margins separates them from Drexel, the fourth team out. They're going to have to hope that everything -- and I mean EVERYTHING -- goes according to form this week. This is the slot that the committee is looking for a reason to give to somebody else.

Miami -- In. They're sitting at #33 in my at-large rankings, so barring a horrendous loss or more than one miracle run in the conference tournaments, they should feel safe. That said, losing to Georgia Tech would qualify as horrendous. 2 wins would make them untouchable.

Mississippi State -- In, for now. At-large #36. Beat Vandy, and they're in for sure. Lose to Georgia, and they're out for sure. Lose to Vandy, and their fate is in other people's hands.

N. C. State -- Out. Third team out, behind South Florida and Colorado State. Could easily switch places with one of them wit a win over UVa on Friday. Lose to BC and they're done.

Seton Hall -- In. At-large #34. A win over Louisville tonight should clinch it. Even with a loss, they still might get there.

South Florida -- Out. Second team out, behind Colorado State. The committee seems to want to do whatever it takes to avoid a repeat of last year's final, and punishing teams that "win ugly" may be how they do it. USF can force their hand, however, with a win over Notre Dame tomorrow.

Washington -- In as at-large #32. Even if they don't win the Pac 12 autobid (which I'm projecting to go to Cal), it would take a disaster to keep them out. Their seed line may not reflect it, but they're long way from being in danger. Then again, this is March. Weird stuff happens.

Xavier -- In, for now. At-large #35. Must beat Dayton to keep it, and making the A-10 finals would lock it up.

Bracket Update for today:

1	Kentucky	North Carolina	Syracuse	Kansas
16	MVSU/Detroit	Stony Brook/Western Kentucky	Norfolk State	Robert Morris
8	California	Alabama	Gonzaga	Virginia
9	Purdue	Murray State	Texas	Notre Dame
4	Kansas State	Georgetown	Michigan	Florida
13	South Dakota State	VCU	Mississippi State/Iona	Seton Hall/Xavier
5	Louisville	Creighton	New Mexico	Wichita State
12	Long Beach State	Northwestern	Washington	Harvard
2	Duke	Missouri	Michigan State	Ohio State
15	Lehigh	Texas-Arlington	Loyola (MD)	UNC-Asheville
7	Iowa State	Temple	Florida State	Saint Mary's
10	Connecticut	West Virginia	Cincinnati	San Diego State
3	Indiana	Wisconsin	Baylor	Marquette
14	Montana	Ohio U	New Mexico State	Davidson
6	Memphis	UNLV	Vanderbilt	St. Louis
11	Belmont	BYU	Southern Miss	Miami (FL)