Sunday, March 11, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- Selection Sunday FINAL BRACKET

Thank you to St. Bonaventure for making some of the ins and outs calls a bit easier.

Here you go:

1 Kentucky North Carolina Syracuse Kansas
16 MVSU/Long Island Western Kentucky/Vermont Norfolk State Lamar
8 St. Mary's Texas Virginia Murray State
9 Purdue Cincinnati St. Louis Alabama
4 Georgetown Michigan Florida New Mexico
13 Davidson Colorado Belmont South Dakota State
5 Kansas State Vanderbilt Memphis Creighton
12 Miami (FL) / Xavier Long Beach State VCU South Florida / Southern Miss
2 Duke Missouri Michigan State Ohio State
15 UNC-Asheville Loyola (MD) Detroit Lehigh
7 Iowa State UNLV Gonzaga Temple
10 Connecticut Notre Dame West Virginia California
3 Indiana Wisconsin Baylor Marquette
14 St. Bonaventure New Mexico State Ohio U Montana
6 Wichita State Louisville San Diego State Florida State
11 Colorado State BYU N. C. State Harvard

By conference: Big East 9, ACC 6, Big Ten 6, Big XII 6, Atlantic 10 4, Mountain West 4, SEC 4, West Coast 3, Conference USA 2, Missouri Valley 2, PAC 12 2.

Best teams out: Washington, Northwestern, Mississippi State, Drexel, Iona, MTSU, Seton Hall, Tennessee, Oral Roberts.

Friday, March 9, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 9, 2012

I give up.

I give up on trying to keep Colorado State out of the tournament. Even though their RPI is the only thing going for them, nobody else seems to want the spot. Washington and Northwestern are desperately trying to play their way out, Mississippi State actually did play their way out, and South Florida is still a byword for "style of play."

I am strongly tempted to put MTSU, Iona, and Drexel in just because.

But I know better. This is about guessing what the committee will do, not tellig them what they should do.

It's nice to be proven right about Miami. And watch out for N. C. State, Arizona, and Tennessee as potential bid thieves. The good news is that Xavier and Southern Miss are the only teams left in the "danger zone" who could potentially lose their way out.

Today's bracket -- not much change at the top. Some shuffling along the cut line -- Colorado State in, Mississippi State out, Washington and Northwestern into the PIG, South Florida (despite losing) into a 12 slot.

Here you go:

1 Kentucky North Carolina Syracuse Kansas
16 MVSU/Long Island Western Kentucky/Stony Brook Norfolk State Lamar
8 Texas California Murray State Virginia
9 Purdue San Diego State St. Mary's Alabama
4 Georgetown Michigan Florida New Mexico
13 VCU South Dakota State Washington/Northwestern Seton Hall/Xavier
5 Kansas State Memphis Creighton Wichita State
12 Long Beach State South Florida Belmont Harvard
2 Duke Missouri Michigan State Ohio State
15 UNC-Asheville Loyola (MD) Detroit Lehigh
7 Iowa State Vanderbilt Florida State Gonzaga
10 Connecticut Notre Dame West Virginia Cincinnati
3 Indiana Wisconsin Baylor Marquette
14 Davidson New Mexico State Ohio U Montana
6 UNLV Louisville St. Louis Temple
11 Southern Miss BYU Colorado State Miami (FL)

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 8, 2012

Slight change today, as I've put South Florida in over Iona.

As for Colorado State, one of the criteria I use is this: If this team were an autobid, where would I seed them? If I were giving Colorado State an autobid, based on what I've seen so far they'd be either the last 13 or the first 14, roughly comparable with Davidson or South Dakota State.

I know, I know. You're not supposed to worry about seeding until everybody has been selected. But still. If this is the one part of the selection process I get wrong, I can live with that. But I suspect that I'm less enamored of the RPI than some of the other folks doing brackets, and I think my approach mimics what the committee has been saying all year.

Through games of 3/7/12:

1 Kentucky North Carolina Syracuse Kansas
16 MVSU/Long Island Western Kentucky/Stony Brook Norfolk State Detroit
8 Texas Murray State California Virginia
9 Purdue San Diego State St. Mary's Alabama
4 Georgetown Michigan Florida New Mexico
13 VCU South Florida/Mississippi State South Dakota State Seton Hall/Xavier
5 Kansas State Memphis Creighton Wichita State
12 Long Beach State Belmont Northwestern Harvard
2 Duke Missouri Michigan State Ohio State
15 UNC-Asheville Loyola (MD) Texas-Arlington Lehigh
7 Iowa State Vanderbilt Florida State Gonzaga
10 Connecticut Notre Dame West Virginia Cincinnati
3 Indiana Wisconsin Baylor Marquette
14 Davidson New Mexico State Ohio U Montana
6 UNLV Louisville St. Louis Temple
11 Washington BYU Southern Miss Miami (FL)

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 7, 2012

Bubble Breakdown: (Last 5 in, first 5 out)

Arizona -- Out. Behind Colorado State, South Florida, N. C. State, Drexel, and MTSU. May well need an autobid to get in.

Colorado State -- Out, for now. First team out. They can get in if something good happens for them (beating SDSU would be a good start) or if something bad happens to a team currently in the field.

Drexel -- Out, for now. That said, if Colorado State, South Florida, and N. C. State all underwhelm this week, the last spot could come down to them, Iona, and maybe MTSU. At that point, it's rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock.

Iona -- In, but barely. #37 on the At-large list, but the tiniest of margins separates them from Drexel, the fourth team out. They're going to have to hope that everything -- and I mean EVERYTHING -- goes according to form this week. This is the slot that the committee is looking for a reason to give to somebody else.

Miami -- In. They're sitting at #33 in my at-large rankings, so barring a horrendous loss or more than one miracle run in the conference tournaments, they should feel safe. That said, losing to Georgia Tech would qualify as horrendous. 2 wins would make them untouchable.

Mississippi State -- In, for now. At-large #36. Beat Vandy, and they're in for sure. Lose to Georgia, and they're out for sure. Lose to Vandy, and their fate is in other people's hands.

N. C. State -- Out. Third team out, behind South Florida and Colorado State. Could easily switch places with one of them wit a win over UVa on Friday. Lose to BC and they're done.

Seton Hall -- In. At-large #34. A win over Louisville tonight should clinch it. Even with a loss, they still might get there.

South Florida -- Out. Second team out, behind Colorado State. The committee seems to want to do whatever it takes to avoid a repeat of last year's final, and punishing teams that "win ugly" may be how they do it. USF can force their hand, however, with a win over Notre Dame tomorrow.

Washington -- In as at-large #32. Even if they don't win the Pac 12 autobid (which I'm projecting to go to Cal), it would take a disaster to keep them out. Their seed line may not reflect it, but they're long way from being in danger. Then again, this is March. Weird stuff happens.

Xavier -- In, for now. At-large #35. Must beat Dayton to keep it, and making the A-10 finals would lock it up.

Bracket Update for today:

1 Kentucky North Carolina Syracuse Kansas
16 MVSU/Detroit Stony Brook/Western Kentucky
Norfolk State Robert Morris
8 California Alabama Gonzaga Virginia
9 Purdue Murray State Texas Notre Dame
4 Kansas State Georgetown Michigan Florida
13 South Dakota State VCU Mississippi State/Iona Seton Hall/Xavier
5 Louisville Creighton New Mexico Wichita State
12 Long Beach State Northwestern Washington Harvard
2 Duke Missouri Michigan State Ohio State
15 Lehigh Texas-Arlington Loyola (MD) UNC-Asheville
7 Iowa State Temple Florida State Saint Mary's
10 Connecticut West Virginia Cincinnati San Diego State
3 Indiana Wisconsin Baylor Marquette
14 Montana Ohio U New Mexico State Davidson
6 Memphis UNLV Vanderbilt St. Louis
11 Belmont BYU Southern Miss Miami (FL)

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 5, 2012

Update for Tuesday.

In the half-dozen-or-so years I've been playing with this, I've seen stronger bubbles. I've also seen weaker bubbles. But I can't remember a bubble this tightly-packed.

Mississippi State is back in, but barely. A win over Georgia would make me feel a lot better about them.

Colorado State is still out, but (again) barely. They have a great chance to show me something in the MWC tournament. A win over SDSU would put them in. A loss to TCU would put them out. Something in between, and they're right in the mix. I mentioned in a comment earlier that this is the sort of situation where the committee likes to send a message -- in this case, that racking up a huge RPI is not necessarily a ticket-puncher.

Deciding between Iona, Drexel, USF, and Arizona for the last spot became essentially a random draw. I went with Iona on the strength of winning their conference regular season and the fact that USF tends to "win ugly." Not that that should matter, but I've heard "style of play" too often from committee interviews to discount it completely.

Top 10 Bubble Teams: Arizona, Drexel, N. C. State, Oregon, MTSU, South Florida, Colorado State, Oral Roberts, Saint Joseph's.

Bids by conference: ACC 5, A-10 3, Big 10 7, Big East 9, Big 12 6, C-USA 2, Metro 2 (for now), Mountain West 3, Pac 12 2, SEC 5, Valley 2, West Coast 3

Don't Get Too Comfortable -- Northwestern, Washington, Harvard, Miami (FL), Southern Miss, Long Beach State


1 Kentucky North Carolina Syracuse Kansas
16 MVSU/Robert Morris Stony Brook/North Texas Norfolk State Valparaiso
8 California Alabama Gonzaga Virginia
9 Purdue Murray State Texas Notre Dame
4 Kansas State Georgetown Michigan Florida
13 South Dakota State VCU Mississippi State/Iona Seton Hall/Xavier
5 Louisville Creighton New Mexico Wichita State
12 Long Beach State Northwestern Washington Harvard
2 Duke Missouri Michigan State Ohio State
15 Lehigh Texas-Arlington Loyola (MD) UNC-Asheville
7 Iowa State Temple Florida State Saint Mary's
10 Connecticut West Virginia Cincinnati San Diego State
3 Indiana Wisconsin Baylor Marquette
14 Montana Ohio U New Mexico State Davidson
6 Memphis UNLV Vanderbilt St. Louis
11 Belmont BYU Southern Miss Miami (FL)

Friday, March 2, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 2, 2012

Here's the latest. I'm finally sold on South Florida, at least enough to put them in the Zombie PIG slot. Still not convinced an RPI in the 20s is enough for Colorado State. Mississippi State is done. The model is picking South Dakota State to beat Oral Roberts in the Summit final. More commentary as time permits this weekend.

1 Kentucky Syracuse Kansas Michigan State
16 MVSU/Lehigh Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville Norfolk State Montana
8 Creighton Temple Florida State Iowa State
9 San Diego State Texas Notre Dame Murray State
4 Marquette Michigan Florida Vanderbilt
13 MTSU Arizona/Cincinnati South Florida/Xavier Iona
5 Wichita State Memphis New Mexico Louisville
12 Northwestern Harvard Belmont Long Beach State
2 Missouri Duke Ohio State North Carolina
15 Ohio U Cleveland State Wagner Texas-Arlington
7 Virginia Alabama Gonzaga Purdue
10 West Virginia St. Mary's Washington Connecticut
3 Wisconsin Indiana Georgetown Baylor
14 New Mexico State Davidson South Dakota State VCU
6 California Kansas State St. Louis UNLV
11 Miami (FL) Seton Hall Southern Miss BYU

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 28, 2012

Been sick all weekend, so I'm way behind. Quick update for now, comments with the next update (Thursday-ish??)






1 Kentucky Syracuse Michigan State Kansas
16 MVSU/Weber State UNC-Asheville/Stony Brook Norfolk State Lehigh
8 Temple Iowa State Creighton Purdue
9 Texas Murray State San Diego State Notre Dame
4 Georgetown Wichita State Florida Louisville
13 MTSU Belmont Cincinnati/Arizona Iona
5 Michigan Vanderbilt Gonzaga UNLV
12 Harvard N. C. State/Xavier Long Beach State Miami (FL)*
2 Missouri North Carolina Duke Ohio State
15 Akron Cleveland State Wagner Texas-Arlington
7 Virginia Kansas State St. Louis Florida State
10 Connecticut St. Mary's Seton Hall Southern Miss
3 Wisconsin Indiana Baylor Marquette
14 New Mexico State Davidson Oral Roberts VCU
6 Memphis New Mexico California Alabama
11 Washington* West Virginia* Northwestern* BYU

Teams marked with an * are the most likely to fall into the PIG once Conference Tournament season gets good and weird.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 22, 2012

Here's the latest. I plan to update more often as the day draws nigh. I don't know exactly how often, but I suspect more than once a week at least.

Also, thee was a slight tweak of the algorithm this week. I wanted to tinker with the balance of resume strength and prediction to try to get as close to what the committee does as I can. I can see a little bit of movement in the numbers, but not much.

This week's bracket:

1 Kentucky Syracuse Michigan State Kansas
16 MVSU/Lehigh Vermont/UNC-Asheville Norfolk State Weber State
8 Texas Gonzaga Southern Miss Alabama
9 St. Mary's Iowa State West Virginia Notre Dame
4 New Mexico Indiana Florida Louisville
13 Cincinnati/Minnesota* Long Beach State Iona Belmont
5 St. Louis UNLV Wichita State Michigan
12 Miami (FL)**
Mississippi State** Arizona/N C State* BYU**
2 North Carolina Duke Missouri Ohio State
15 Wagner New Mexico State Cleveland State Texas-Arlington
7 Kansas State Creighton Virginia Temple
10 Murray State Connecticut San Diego State Harvard
3 Wisconsin Baylor Georgetown Marquette
14 Akron Davidson Oral Roberts VCU
6 Memphis Vanderbilt California Florida State
11 Seton Hall Purdue Northwestern** MTSU

*In the Media mock bracket conducted by the NCAA this week, there were 21 Auto-bids below the last at-large. In my bracket, there are 17. Given the rate of upsets in conference tournaments historically, it seems reasonable to guess that during Championship Fortnight, the bubble will shrink by 3-4 teams.

So if I have you in the At-Large PIG, you're probably more likely to end up in the NIT barring a deeper-than-expected tournament run of your own and/or a complete lack of Championship Fortnight upsets.

The teams marked with a ** would, similarly, fall into the AL-PIG when the upsets happen.

INS & OUTS:

IN -- Cincinnati, New Mexico State, Lehigh
OUT -- Illinois, Nevada, Bucknell

BIGGEST MOVERS:

St. Mary's (6 to 9), San Diego State (7 to 10), BYU (9 to 12)

Virginia (5 to 7), West Virginia (11 to 9), Notre Dame (11 to 9), Northwestern (13 to 11), Mississippi State (10 to 12)

TOP 10 OUT:

Xavier, Washington, St. Joseph's, Drexel, LaSalle, South Dakota State, Oregon, Illinois, Central Florida, Wyoming

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 14, 2012

For such a topsy-turvy week, very little change in this week's Random Nerd Bracketology. 3 new conference leaders, 2 new at-larges, and a few teams moving up or down a bit.

But this is the way it's supposed to be. As the season goes on, the picture is supposed to get clearer, right?

Right?

Anyway, here's this week's bracket:

1 Kentucky Syracuse Ohio State Kansas
16 Texas-Arlington/MVSU UNC-Asheville/Vermont Norfolk State Weber State
8 Temple Southern Miss Creighton Gonzaga
9 Iowa State BYU Texas Alabama
4 Georgetown Florida Louisville UNLV
13 Long Beach State Iona Northwestern/Arizona Oral Roberts
5 New Mexico Michigan Virginia Wichita State
12 Purdue Seton Hall/N. C. State MTSU Minnesota
2 North Carolina Duke Missouri Michigan State
15 Cleveland State Wagner Bucknell Nevada
7 Kansas State San Diego State Vanderbilt Florida State
10 Connecticut Harvard Miami (FL) Mississippi State
3 Baylor Wisconsin Indiana Marquette
14 Akron Davidson VCU Belmont
6 St. Mary's St. Louis Memphis California
11 Illinois Notre Dame West Virginia Murray State

INS AND OUTS:

IN: Akron, UNC-Asheville, Vermont, Northwestern, N. C. State
OUT: Xavier, Wyoming, Ohio U, Stony Brook, Coastal Carolina

BIGGEST MOVERS:

Creighton (4 to 8), Memphis (9 to 6), Temple (11 to 8), BYU (12 to 9), Miami-FL (13 to 10), Murray State (8 to 11)

Baylor (1 to 3), New Mexico (7 to 5), St. Louis (8 to 6), Florida State (5 to 7), Southern Miss (6 to 8), Texas (11 to 9), Illinois (9 to 11), Seton Hall (10 to 12), Cleveland State (13 to 15)

BUBBLE TOP 10: Xavier, Wyoming, Drexel, Cincinnati, South Dakota State, St. Joseph's, Washington, LaSalle, Central Florida, Stanford

BY CONFERENCE: ACC 6, A-10 2, Big East 8, Big 10 9, Big XII 6, C-USA 2, Missouri Valey 2, Mountain West 3, PAC-12 2, SEC 5, West Coast 3

Monday, February 6, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 6, 2012

These projections are as of games of Sunday, February 4.

Also, as I mentioned in the comments, these projections are a hybrid of the "season to date" and the "projection of season" methods. In determining my conference auto-bids, I look at a combination of straight ordinal ranking, MOV, and tempo-free stats to determine which team is most likely to win the conference tournament. Then, for bracket purposes, I assume they all do.

I know.

I then take the 37 best teams that the numbers say will need an at-large, give them one, and bracket from there.

So, this field is based on the assumptions that: 1) conference tournaments will go according to script, with everybody losing when they're "supposed to" and 2) conference tournament winners will be viewed more highly by the committee and get seeding bonuses relative to at-larges. (That's why Baylor has been a one-seed the last two weeks. My numbers have them beating Kansas for the Big XII title, while Michigan State loses to Ohio State in the Big 10 final).

Now I'm not naive enough to think March will go completely according to form. With the exception of the 2008 Final Four, it's been a long time since we've seen any degree of March Blandness. Things get weird. That's why, if you're one of the Top 10 Out, you'd be well advised to move up as best as you can as quickly as you can before crazy stuff starts to happen regularly.

Side note about the Top 10 Out: Consider them your Championship Fortnight Watch List. These are the teams the computer tells me are most likely to make a March run and land in the bracket, but not necessarily the ones that are most likely to slide in if somebody else stumbles. To move up, they need to get farther in their conference tournaments than the computer says they "should."

Example: South Dakota State. I, for one, don't really think South Dakota State is the 38th best at-large. But they are good enough to beat Oral Roberts one time in a one-and-done scenario, and if they do they'll likely find themselves on the 13 (or at worst 14) line on Selection Sunday. But since they're "supposed to" make the Summit League final, the only way they can improve their bracket position relative to other at-larges during Championship Fortnight is to actually win the tournament and not need an at-large.

A quick note about comments: Unless you're Spam or an SEO, I will post and respond as best I can. And I don't mind anonymous comments. But please let me know whether you are a Bracketology Expert Type or a Random Fan, so I know how much explaining I need to do when I respond. I don't want to insult your intelligence by talking about things like sample size and committee relevant vs. irrelevant data if you already know all of that and all you want to know is why I put a given team where I did. I enjoy engaging the BETs, and even enjoy interacting with RFs, but since I'm new at this it would help me a lot if I knew which was which when I responded.

Thanks.

On to this week's projection:

1 Syracuse Kentucky Ohio State Baylor
16 MVSU/Texas-Arlington Stony Brook/Coastal Carolina Norfolk State Weber State
8 San Diego State Murray State St. Louis Gonzaga
9 Memphis Illinois Iowa State Connecticut
4 Indiana Marquette UNLV Creighton
13 Xavier/Miami (FL) Iona Cleveland State Wyoming/Arizona
5 St. Mary's Florida State Louisville Virginia
12 MTSU BYU Long Beach State Purdue
2 Missouri Kansas North Carolina Michigan State
15 Ohio U Wagner Nevada Bucknell
7 Vanderbilt New Mexico California Alabama
10 West Virginia Mississippi State Seton Hall Harvard
3 Duke Wisconsin Florida Georgetown
14 VCU Belmont Davidson Oral Roberts
6 Michigan Wichita State Kansas State Southern Miss
11 Temple Notre Dame Minnesota Texas

INS AND OUTS:

IN: Arizona. Coastal Carolina, Notre Dame
OUT: UNC-Asheville, Cincinnati, LaSalle

BIGGEST MOVERS:

St. Louis (11 to 8), Virginia (3 to 5), Southern Miss (8 to 6), Vanderbilt (5 to 7), San Diego State (6 to 8), West Virginia (8 to 10), Temple (9 to 11), Minnesota (9 to 11)

BUBBLE TOP 10: South Dakota State, LaSalle, Northwestern, Washington, Arkansas, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Drexel, Akron, N. C. State

BY CONFERENCE: ACC 5, A-10 3, Big 10 8, Big East 8, Big XII 6, Missouri Valley 2, Mountain West 4, Pac 12 2, SEC 5, West Coast 3

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- January 31, 2012

Now that somebody has asked, I guess I should explain by methodology a bit.

Conference auto-bids are based on my best guess as to who is most likely to win the conference tournament if it were played that weekend.

Likewise, at-large bids and seeds are based on what has happened so far. Consider them a snapshot of the standings as of the posting.

So here's this week's bracket. Enjoy:

1 Syracuse Ohio State Kentucky Baylor
16 MVSU/Texas-Arlington UNC-Asheville/Stony Brook Norfolk State Weber State
8 Murray State Alabama Southern Miss West Virginia
9 Iowa State Memphis Temple Minnesota
4 Indiana Georgetown Wisconsin Florida
13 Long Beach State Oral Roberts Cincinnati/Miami (FL) Iona
5 Vanderbilt Kansas State Creighton Florida State
12 BYU Xavier MTSU Wyoming/LaSalle
2 North Carolina Duke Kansas Michigan State
15 Belmont Nevada Wagner Bucknell
7 California Gonzaga New Mexico Wichita State
10 Illinois Mississippi State Connecticut Seton Hall
3 Missouri UNLV Virginia Marquette
14 Davidson Ohio U VCU Cleveland State
6 San Diego State Louisville Michigan St. Mary's
11 St. Louis Purdue Harvard Texas

IN: Miami (FL), LaSalle, Wyoming, Nevada (replaces New Mexico State)
OUT: North Carolina State, Dayton, Northwestern

Biggest Movers: New Mexico (+4), Vanderbilt (+3), West Virginia (-3), Connecticut (-3), Seton Hall (-5)

Top 10 Out: Oklahoma, South Dakota State, Northwestern, Stanford, Arkansas, Drexel, N. C. State, Colorado State, Massachusetts, Washington

By Conference: ACC 5, A-10 4, Big 10 8, Big East 8, Big 12 6, C-USA 2, Missouri Valley 2, Mountain West 4, SEC 5, West Coast 3

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- January 24, 2012

These will usually come on Tuesdays, or in busy weeks Wednesday.

1 Syracuse Kentucky Ohio State Kansas
16 MVSU/Texas-Arlington Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville Norfolk State Weber State
8 Vanderbilt Illinois Gonzaga California
9 Murray State Memphis St. Louis Mississippi State
4 Kansas State Indiana Florida UNLV
13 Northwestern/N. C. State Long Beach State Iona Oral Roberts
5 Creighton Virginia Seton Hall West Virginia
12 BYU Cincinnati/Xavier Texas Purdue
2 Duke Missouri Baylor Michigan State
15 Belmont New Mexico State Wagner Bucknell
7 Louisville Michigan San Diego State Connecticut
10 Temple Dayton Minnesota Southern Miss
3 Wisconsin Georgetown Marquette North Carolina
14 VCU Ohio U Cleveland State Davidson
6 Alabama Wichita State Florida State Saint Mary's
11 Iowa State New Mexico MTSU Harvard

Ins -- Bucknell (replaces Lehigh), Cincinnati, N. C. State
Outs -- Stanford, Marshall

Biggest Movers -- Florida State (+4), Florida (+3), Connecticut (-3), Illinois (-3), California (-3), BYU (-3), New Mexico (-4)

Top 10 Out -- Wyoming, Northern Iowa, Stanford, South Dakota State, Central Florida, Virginia Tech, LaSalle, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi

By Conference: ACC 5, A-10 4, Big 10 9, Big East 8, Big 12 6, C-USA 2, Missouri Valley 2, Mountain West 3, SEC 5, West Coast 3

Friday, January 20, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology -- January 18, 2012

I've decided to make my latest hobby public.

Every week for the last few seasons, I have put together a mock NCAA men's basketball bracket. There's a site called Bracket Project that compares hobbyists like me with the pros. Had I been in the contest last year, I would have finished tied for seventh.

So here goes. I'm supposed to update it every week. We'll see how well that works out.

The date on this bracket was January 18th, 2012:

1 Syracuse Ohio State Baylor Kentucky
16 MVSU/Texas-Arlington Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville Norfolk State Lehigh
8 San Diego State Wichita State Vanderbilt Murray State
9 Stanford Louisville BYU Memphis
4 Alabama UNLV Marquette Connecticut
13 Purdue/Marshall Oral Roberts Iona Long Beach State
5 Illinois California Virginia Wisconsin
12 Harvard MTSU Minnesota Iowa State/Dayton
2 Missouri Kansas Michigan State Duke
15 Cleveland State Wagner New Mexico State Weber State
7 Gonzaga Florida New Mexico West Virginia
10 St. Louis Northwestern Florida State Mississippi State
3 North Carolina Georgetown Seton Hall Indiana
14 Ohio U Belmont VCU Davidson
6 Michigan St. Mary's Creighton Kansas State
11 Southern Miss Temple Texas Xavier

If you want to mock this, go ahead. I'm not bothering with trying to guess game sites or game days. There are plenty of people who do that, and quite frankly I don't find that part nearly as interesting as guessing ins/outs and seed lines.

Top 10 OUT: Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Colorado State, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, N. C. State, LaSalle, Arkansas, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Practice for the Jeopardy Test

Here is a Practice Test for those who want a sample in advance of the real thing.

Click here for the answers. They're in a Spoiler Box in post #3.

Good luck.

1. RHYME TIME Felony committed by a citrus fruit found in the Florida Keys.

2. SPORTS BOOKS This Michael Lewis book made into a movie starring Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill is subtitled “The Art of Winning an Unfair Game.”

3. RIP 2011 This TV actor, best known for his roles on MASH and Dragnet, passed away on December 7.

4. BASIC PHYSICS This simple machine consists of an inclined plane rotated helically around an axis.

5. HISTORIC WOMEN This Vice-Presidential runner-up has received more electoral votes than any other woman.

6. MOVIES Natalie Portman won a Best Actress Oscar for portraying a dancer in this Tchaikovsky ballet.

7. OPERA In the preface to the published libretto of The Flying Dutchman, this composer said, “I shall never write an opera more.”

8. BEFORE & AFTER Flag flown in British Commonwealth countries whose nursery rhyme wife “could eat no lean.”

9. SPORTS TEAMS IN OTHER WORDS The head servant of a household, or the runner-up in the 2010 and 2011 men's NCAA basketball tournaments.

10. STATE CAPITALS Now the largest state capital by population, this was the last city in the 48 contiguous United States to become a state capital.

11. MUSIC “Planetary” artist whose album “Doo-Wops and Hooligans” includes the Grammy-nominated song “Grenade.”

12. NOVELS This Jane Austen novel is a revision of an earlier work called “First Impressions.”

13. HYPHENATED COMPOSERS This Russian's symphonic suite Sheherezade is based on “One Thousand and One Nights.”

14. FOOD This small cruciferous cabbage named for a European capital originated in the cooler climate of northern Europe.

15. THE SUPREME COURT The first case in which this former President wrote the majority opinion dealt with rights of U. S. citizens in overseas territories.

16. REFERENCE BOOKS The name of this type of reference work means “treasury,” not “synonym lizard.”

17. COLORFUL SUPERHEROES Color common to the superhero identities of Oliver Queen, Britt Reid, and Alan Scott.

18. SHAKESPEARE This Italian city was home in one play to Valentine and Petruchio, and in another play to Mercutio and Tybalt.

19. WORLD CAPITALS This European city is the only national capital in the world to completely surround a foreign country.

20. THE LABORS OF HERCULES While this titan fetched the golden apples of the Hesperides, Hercules held the sky on his shoulders.

21. WORLD WAR II “Operation Double Cross” was an attempt to convince the Axis that the Allies would invade Greece instead of this country.

22. POTENT POTABLES Grey Goose and Belvedere are wheat-based brands of this potent potable commonly associated with Russia.

23. “L”-EMENTS Element number three in the periodic table, it got its name from the Greek word for “stone.”

24. WORLD LITERATURE In 2011, “One Piece” became the best-selling series in the history of this 5-letter Japanese literary style.

25. COLLEGES & UNIVERSITIES Of the nine “Colonial colleges” founded before the American Revolution, one of the two that is not part of the Ivy League.

26. CARIBBEAN HISTORY This country, which occupies half of a Caribbean island, was the second Western Hemisphere country to become independent.

27. CHILDREN'S BOOKS In books by Laura Joffe Numeroff, this title animal is taken to the movies, taken to school, and most famously given a cookie.

28. THE INTERNET This online reference site's name combines a Hawaiian word meaning “fast” with a Greek word meaning “to walk.”

29. CROSSWORD CLUES “I” Unimaginable! (It means what you think it means). (13)

30. U. S. CITIES This city is home to both a space center named for Lyndon Johnson and an airport named for George H. W. Bush.

31. CURRENT EVENTS The 2010 suicide of Mohamed Bouazizi, a street vendor in this North African capital, sparked demonstrations that would come to be called the “Arab Spring.”

32. STATE SONGS This song, traditionally sung before the Preakness Stakes, includes the line “Avenge the patriotic gore that flecked the streets of Baltimore.”

33. LANGUAGES Also called azbuka, this writing system named for a ninth century Eastern Orthodox saint became the third official script of the European Union in 2007.

34. SCULPTOR PAINTERS This impressionist painter's most famous sculpture depicts a bronze, fourteen-year-old ballerina.

35. ART ON STAGE “Red,” the 2010 Tony winner for Best Play, tells a story about this Russian-American abstract expressionist.

36. NEONATOLOGY Premature infants are sometimes placed under a bright blue light to treat this yellowing of the skin caused by excess bilirubin.

37. THE 21ST CENTURY BC The Middle Kingdom period of this ancient empire was inaugurated when Mentuhotep II reunited the country.

38. COLORFUL PHRASES This type of telephone directory in which businesses are listed by category is named for the color of paper on which it is typically printed.

39. GOING UP Alphanumeric name eventually given to the mountain originally named for Henry Godwin-Austen, an early explorer of the Karakoram range.

40. UNLIKELY AUTHORS His best-known work is an eight-volume history which begins “Gaul, taken as a whole, is divided into three parts.”

41. I KNOW THE KINGS OF SWEDEN This king, after whom a Minnesota college is named, died in battle during the Thirty Years War.

42. ART “T”ERMS Seven-letter word for a glutenous binder such as egg yolk that mixes with pigment to make paint.

43. THE OLD TESTAMENT The wife of this Old Testament character told him he should “Curse God and die.”

44. THE SOVIET SPACE PROGRAM Invisible from the Earth's surface, this region of a celestial body was first photographed by a Soviet space probe in October, 1959.

45. FLOWERY POEMS Type of flowers that “blow beneath the crosses row on row” in a poem by John McCrae.

46. MUSICAL VOCABULARY Meaning “self-titled,” this was the title of R. E. M.'s first greatest hits album.

47. RIVER MANIA The Mania River flows from the central mountains of this island, the largest in the Indian Ocean.

48. RECENT FICTION Stephen King's 2011 novel 11/22/63 is about a man who travels back in time to try to prevent the death of this man.

49. NUMERICAL WORD ORIGINS This word meaning “uncountable” is a transliteration of the Greek word for ten thousand.

50. FOSSIL FUELS This controversial method of extracting oil or natural gas from a rock formation involves injecting a fluid into the rock until it breaks.

Friday, November 4, 2011

The DoT Matrix -- Use The Force, Luke

"This is the weapon of a Jeopardy Knight . . . an elegant weapon for a more civilized age."

In February 2011, IBM challenged Jeopardy greats Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter to a match against a supercomputer they named Watson.

To the surprise of many carbon-based lifeforms, Watson won easily. But those of us who have been on the show -- especially those who were part of the practice games Watson played -- know the truth.

Watson had a huge advantage on the buzzer.

On Jeopardy, a player cannot ring in until Alex finishes reading the clue and a coordinator offstage flips a switch powering the podium lights. Hit your button too soon, and your podium is darkened for the first quarter of a second after the others are turned on. Wait too long, and the other player beats you. Finding that moment, that sweet spot, over and over again is not terribly unlike what a Jedi does swatting away battle droid blaster shots.

But with Watson, buzzing early was physically impossible. The mechanism that allowed It to ring in was powered by the same button that activated the lights for Ken and Brad. In other words, they could ring in early, but It couldn't.

That buzzer advantage was more than enough to make up for the huge knowledge deficit The Machine faced.

You see, some Jeopardy players are teeming with knowledge. Others are teeming with midichloreans.

Which brings us to this year's Tournament of Champions.

In the previous post, we figured out a way to estimate how much knowledge a player had during his regular season run. But knowing a lot of answers isn't enough; you have to be able to get i on the buzzer to show what you know. Buzzer proficiency, then, can be calculated by comparing the number of answers the player actually knew with the number of correct answers they gave (not including Daily Doubles).

The formula is as follows:

Buzzer Proficiency = Correct Responses Given / ((Answers Known per 60 clues / 60) * Total clues seen)

So the greatest Buzzer Jedi in this year's TOC is . . . drum roll . . .

Kara Spack. The only woman from the regular season to make the field.

When Kara knew an answer, she got in on the buzzer an amazing 72% of the time. By comparison, at his best Ken Jennings got in two times out of three. (Of course, he also knew 54 answers per game, so there's that.)

What's amazing about that is the theory floating among Jeopardy analysts that says that the reason 12 of the 13 contestants in the year's TOC are men is because Jeopardy is not so much a test of knowledge as it is a video game, which in America gives a cultural advantage to males ages 18-34. As Watson proved, what separates the merely smart from Jeopardy titans is proficiency on the buzzer. Kara's numbers may necessitate a re-thinking of the Video Game Theory as an explanation of the gender gap in TOC contestants.

Of course, for all we know in addition to her Jeopardy prowess Kara may really be the greatest Worlds of Warcraft player ever to walk the Earth. Or The Force may just be strong with this one where it isn't with others.

Either way, Kara looks to be a Force all her own in this year's Tournament.

The rest of the field in Buzzer Proficiency:

Kara 72.2%
Buddy 69.1%
Paul 67.9%
Tom K 62.0%
Roger 57.9%
Joon 57.2%
Jay 54.6%
Christopher 51.5%
John 49.7%
Mark 48.9%
Tom N 48.3%
Justin 45.0%
Brian 41.8%

Notice that nobody gets to the TOC with merely average buzzer ability. Also notice that some players can actually make up for an information gap by being good with the buzzer (a la Bob Harris). But the players that are most to be feared going forward are those who are both exceptional in their knowledge base and able to wield their Weapon with skill and precision.

Before long I half expect Roger to start shooting lightning out of his fingers.

NEXT: Degree of Difficulty -- What the BCS can teach us about Jeopardy tournaments

Thursday, November 3, 2011

The DoT Matrix -- What's Makes for a Good Player?

Note: The Tournament of Champions started last night. There was a mix-up with the DVD, so I haven't seen the episode yet, but from what I've read the numbers I'm about to throw at you stood up pretty well for one game. We'll see how they do against actual tournament results.

The Jeopardy Tournament of Champions is a two-week tournament during which the thirteen player with the most wins during the regular season return to Culver City to crown a season-long champion. The winner takes home $250,000 and -- perhaps more importantly -- glory.

Predicting a winner has always proven difficult, since so much of the outcome depends on factors that are essentially random (or at least beyond the player's control). Player match-ups, which players see which boards, how they're feeling that day, other players' luck. all factor into determining a winner.

But while there are obstacles to prediction, there are numbers available to help us determine going in which players will need to catch the most breaks to win, and which ones have the tools to make a deep run (mostly) regardless of luck.

Aside from random chance, there are four factors that determine Jeopardy success. In no particular order, you have to 1) know stuff, 2) be good at buzzing, 3) be able to handle difficult material, and 4) know how to wager.

Smarter people than me have hashed out most of what you'd want to know about #4, and I suspect most TOC-level players have spent at least some time playing with the J-Archive wagering calculator. So I'll just look at the first three in the next few posts.

Factor #1 -- Know Stuff

How much does a given Jeopardy player know? We've already established back in Post #1 the baseline level for an average player: 35.56 clues per 60 revealed. But TOC players are anything but average. You don't get to the TOC unless you excel in one or more of the Four Factors. Luck is a big part of the game, but it can't turn a lump of coal into Watson.

So to find out how much a given Jeopardy champ knows, we ask the same questions we asked in Establishing a Baseline. How many Triple Stumpers were there in games involving this champ? And how does that compare with games involving three "average" players? In essence, we want to know how much better the group did as a result of having this player on the "team."

At this point, I have to point out that coming up with useful numbers requires a much larger sample size than just one game. For the purposes of the DoT Matrix, I am only assessing players who saw at least five games worth of material and played against at least ten opponents. That means the DoT Matrix cannot tell us who was the best player to lose to Ken Jennings (much as I might like to know where I rank in that list).

First we use the average knowledge level to determine what percentage of clues an average player can't answer. Our sample gives us a number ("team average," or TA) around 40%. Then we make the same calculation for games involving a given champion. For instance, a 5+-day champ might reduce the "team" average from 40% to 30% (let's call this CA, for "champ average). We then figure out how much credit to give to the champion for the improvement in team performance, as follows:

Answers known per 60 clues faced = (1 - (CA ^ 3 / TA ^ 2) ) * 60

In our example, a champ that posts a CA of 30% in an environment that typically yields a TA of 40% probably knows 50 answers per 60 clues.

So how does this year's field stack up? Here are the rankings based solely on knowledge displayed in regular season play:

Roger 51.85
Joon 50.28
Mark 50.24
Tom K 49.26
Justin 47.19
Jay 44.84
John 43.92
Christopher 43.01
Tom N 41.98
Brian 41.19
Kara 33.36
Buddy 32.31
Paul 31.97

Notice that Erin and Charles aren't in these rankings because they only played 4 games, and both were tournament champions facing specially-written tournament clues. Also, curiously, the TOC alternate Sara would have been fifth in these rankings (48.97) if she were in the field.

But like on GI Joe, knowing is only half the battle.

NEXT: The Force is Strong with This One -- Assessing the Battle of the Buzzers

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

The DoT Matrix -- What's a Right Answer Worth?

The short answer: it depends on how good you are with the buzzer.

So, for our purposes, let's make another assumption.
  • Unless one of the players on the stage is destined for 4 or more wins, assume that your buzzer skills are up against two average players. Also, assume that your buzzer skills are average.

Now then, once we have calculated how likely an average player is to attempt a buzz on a given level of clue (see previous post), we can calculate the clam rate, which we'll call CR. Against two players, one of three possibilities exists -- either both will try to buzz, one will buzz and the other won't, or both will clam.

If both clam, your Buzz Chance is 100%. If one hits the buzzer, your chances are 50%. If both go for it, your chances drop to 33 1/3 %.

So to calculate your chances of buzzing in on a given clue against 2 average players, the formula is:

CR ^ 2 + (CR * (1 - CR)) + ((1 - CR) ^ 2) / 3

To determine the value of knowing an answer, then, figure out how often you would buzz in successfully and multiply by the value of the clue. (A $200 clue you can buzz in on 60% of the time would be worth $120.)

Note that a wrong answer would only cost you the expected value, rather than the full value, because somebody might beat your wrong answer to the buzzer with a right one, saving you both the points and the shame. *cough* It's his wedding *cough*

So, abiding by standard Coryat rules (only credit what you know by the time Alex finishes reading, non-guesses are worth 0, Daily Doubles are a special case), you can compare your score to the on-screen players by assigning the following values (rounded to the nearest 10):

SINGLE JEOPARDY

Clue Value CR DoT Matrix Value
200 27% 90
400 32% 190
600 36% 300
800 39% 410
1000 48% 570

DOUBLE JEOPARDY

Clue Value CR DoT Matrix Value
400 29% 180
800 40% 440
1200 45% 670
1600 46% 930
2000 54% 1,220

What To Do About Daily Doubles

When I use these numbers at home, I round to the nearest hundred. That way I can pause the DVD and figure out Daily Double wagers based on what I think I would have at that point of the game. There are two rules for determining whether i get to make a DD wager. 1) I had to answer the previous question correctly and 2) I have to win a coin flip (since I figure my chances of being in control of the board when a DD is revealed are right around 50-50 if I knew the previous response). If I'm playing a DD I make a wager base don my score. If not, I ignore the clue.

Note that some folks recommend for those preparing to go on the show to ignore Daily Doubles altogether (or at least treat them like a regular clue). I tend to agree -- if your purpose in keeping score and tracking data is to prepare for The Show itself. But if you've already been on The Show, or if you're just playing along for fun and you don't anticipate using this data later, having realistic numbers on which to base DD wagers can add something to watching the game. Plus, even if you are preparing for The Show, it can give you a sense of what Daily Double wagering feels like.

And yes, I know, some DD wagers are scenario-based and not score-based. When those situations arise, I calculate the difference between my DoT Matrix score and the score of the player on TV, mentally adjust the other two players equally up (or down) accordingly, and decide on a wager.

NEXT: Assessing the field for the Tournament of Champions

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

The DoT Matrix -- Establishing a Baseline

So I've gone and done it.

A while back Ken Jennings posited in an interview that "Most Jeopardy players know most of the answers." So I decided to put that to the test.

Assume with me, if you will, that:
  • Some games are harder than others, but over the course of a five game stretch, the difficulty level of the clues will pretty much average out.
  • Some players are better than others, but the average skill level of a group of challengers is pretty consistent from one week to the next.
If we grant those assumptions, we can begin to construct a profile for an "average" Jeopardy player by analyzing how often clues go unanswered by all three.

If the probability of a given player not knowing the response to a clue is X, the probability of all 3 in a given game not knowing the correct response is X ^ 3.

So step one in building the DoT Matrix was to find out if Cube Rule is correct. I randomly selected 45 games from the last 3 seasons, where none of the players would eventually win 4 or more games. I then counted "Triple Stumpers" -- unanswered clues -- in each row of the game board.

I did not consider Daily Doubles, since their placement is essentially random and since only one player has an opportunity to respond to them.

The Triple Stumper Rate, or TSR, is our X ^ 3. So the cube root of the TSR is the probability that an average Jeopardy player will not attempt a buzz. 1 - X, then, is our Buzz Rate.

The problem we have at this point is the fact that lack of knowledge is not evenly distributed through the Jeopardy player pool. There are some clues so badly written that nobody is going to get them, and there are other clues in subjects so obscure that very few Jeopardy players ever consider learning them for the show.

I wrote one such category for an SHC a while back about Lawn Mowers. Never again.

But how far do those distribution irregularities skew the players' performance? Quite a bit, as it turns out. I tested the Cube Root Hypothesis against performance in Final Jeopardy -- the only clue inthe game that everybody gets a chance to respond to. If the Cube Root Hypothesis is correct, the correct response rate in Final Jeopardy should be roughly equal to the cube root of TSR.

Spoiler alert: It's not. In fact, the Cube Root Hypothesis underestimates the knowledge level of an average Jeopardy player by about 20%. Which means that if the Cube Root Hypothesis says that a typical Jeopardy player should only know 30 responses per game, he probably knows closer to 36.

So adjusting for CRH error, we find that the typical Jeopardy player will have a correct answer and attempt to buzz 35.56 times on every 60 clues he sees.

So if you've ever wondered how you compare to the players you see every night on your TV, there you go.

NEXT: Using Buzz Probabilities and Coryat Rules to calculate a score for yourself as you play along at home.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

On this Day In History

1606 -- James I combines the flags of England and Scotland into what later came to be called the "Union Jack." In 1707 it would become the official flag of Great Britain.

1633 -- The Inquisition begins against Galileo.

1772 -- Henry Clay is born.

1861 -- Confederate forces bombard Fort Sumter. If their aim had been better, there might have been no baseball.

1945 -- FDR complains of a "terrible headache" before lapsing into a coma and dying.

1947 -- Tom Clancy, David Letterman, and Dan Lauria (the dad from The Wonder Years) are born.

1961 -- Yuri Gagarin becomes the first human being to orbit the Earth.

1981 -- STS-1 Columbia, the first ever space shuttle launch.

1992 -- Euro Disney opens.

And in 1974, four days after Hank Aaron broke Babe Ruth's home run record, I came along.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Bracket Guess, 2011

Here's my guess. I'm not actually very good at this, compared to other on the Internet, but it's fun to speculate.

1 -- Ohio State
16 -- Alabama State/UNC-Asheville
8 -- Villanova
9 -- Old Dominion
4 -- Connecticut
13 -- Princeton
5 -- Arizona
12 -- Clemson/Colorado
2 -- Texas
15 -- Long Island
7 -- Xavier
10 -- Gonzaga
3 -- BYU
14 -- Wofford
6 -- Cincinnati
11 -- Georgia

1 -- Kansas
16 -- Texas-San Antonio/Arkansas-Little Rock
8 -- Washington
9 -- Marquette
4 -- Wisconsin
13 -- Indiana State
5 -- St. John's
12 -- Memphis
2 -- San Diego State
15 -- St. Peter's
7 -- Utah State
10 -- George Mason
3 -- Syracuse
14 -- Bucknell
6 -- Vanderbilt
11 -- Michigan State

1 -- Pittsburgh
16 -- Hampton
8 -- Missouri
9 -- Michigan
4 -- Loser of Florida/Kentucky
13 -- Oakland
5 -- West Virginia
12 -- Virginia/Penn State
2 -- North Carolina
15 -- Northern Colorado
7 -- UNLV
10 -- Butler
3 -- Purdue
14 -- Akron
6 -- Texas A&M
11 -- Richmond

1 -- Duke
16 -- Boston U
8 -- Temple
9 -- Tennessee
4 -- Louisville
13 -- Belmont
5 -- Kansas State
12 -- St. Mary's
2 -- Notre Dame
15 -- UC-Santa Barbara
7 -- UCLA
10 -- Florida State
3 -- Florida/Kentucky winner
14 -- Morehead State
6 -- Georgetown
11 -- Illinois