Friday, February 29, 2008

The Inside Track

One down, one to go.

Lipscomb did what they had to do last night, beating Gardner-Webb 83-71. Eddie Ard was huge, posting a PEG of 28. Adnan Hosdic chipped in . . . oh, nothing . . . just 24 points on 11-13 shooting and 6 boards. Lipscomb's win over Jacksonvile gives them the tiebreaker over G-W in the race for the 5 seed. If Lipscomb can take care of business against Campbell and Belmont clinches the outright conference title by beating G-W, Lipscomb will get the 5 spot.

That's huge because, as I've said before, Lipscomb wants no part of ETSU in the conference tournament. Even in Allen Arena, the Buccaneers can bring it, and after being embarassed at home the last two years coach Bartow's crew has somethign to prove. If Lipscomb gets the 5 seed, they play Stetson Thrusday night, then (probably) Belmont in the semis. Get past them and they face the winner of Jacksnoville-ETSU for the conference title.

That's a lot of "if"'s, but it's as good a draw as they could hope for.

The Wednesday match-ups for the conference tournament are set, as Belmont is the 1-seed and Jacksonville is the 2. Jacksonville gets Mercer in the quarters and Belmont will face Campbell.

And as I said yesterday, how about them Lady Eagles of FGCU! Last night they knocked off Jacksonville to move in to sole possession of second place in conference. The women have one match-up set, as #1 ETSU will play #8 Mercer Wednesday afternoon. Jacksonville is the 2 and Gardber-Webb is the 3.

The breakdown of 4-7 is a bit wild. Two teams are 7-8 and two are 6-9. Here's the crazy thing -- if Lipscomb wins Saturday, they could be the 4-seed and will be no lower than 5. This is from an 8-21 team overall.

Stay tuned.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

A-Sun February Wrap

Wow. Busy week.

The Battle of the Boulevard was, well, weird. Belmont had trouble shooting early. Each team gave up a 14-2 run just after taking a 10-point lead. Lipscomb shot well inside, but LaKory Daniels couldn't buy one from 3-point range. Belmont actually did quite well inside -- not exactly their bread and butter. They rebounded with Lipscomb and when their long stuff wasn't happening they shortened up. Nice adjustment, well executed. Player of the Game -- Jordan Campbell. 11 points and 5 boards, including 7 of 9 from the foul line.

The weirdest decision of the night was Lipscomb playing slap-and-chuck the last 2 minutes. Playing defense down 4 with 1:45 left might be a little early to start fouling, especially since Belmont was in the double bonus. Lipscomb's strategy lengthened the game by 4 possessions, but gave the Bruins 16 free throws in the process. Belmont made 11 of them, forcing Lipscomb to score 15 points in 8 possessions to tie. Conceivable, but not likely.

In other news, Justin Hare is a first-team Academic All-America. He is the third Belmont Bruin to be so honored. This is the seventh time a Bellmont player has made the list, including 2002 when they had 2. Congratulations all around.

Gardner-Webb is peaking. Grayson Flittner hit 15 of 20 3-balls in 2 games, but teammate Thomas Sanders won POW with his 19-point, 22(!)-rebound night against Upstate after a 26 & 16 against ETSU. GW is sitting 4th at 9-5 with a trip to Nashville looming this weekend. Allen Arena is a tough place for anybody to win, and Belmont is the best team in the conference. If GW can get out even with a split, they will be tough next week in the conference tournament.

North Florida is now 1-13 in conference, and that one is Mercer. UNF scored 32 points in the paint, and made over 50% of their 2's for the first time in conference. Given their players, Mercer really should be better than this.

Speaking of surprises, how about those FGCU Lady Eagles? 11-3, with Jacsonville and North Florida coming to town this weekend. Since they lost their first two at JU and UNF, they have won 11 of 12, including a win over conference regular season champ ETSU. Delia de la Torre was on my pre-season All-Conference watch list. I haven't done the math yet, but she's got a look at first team all-conference. Chelsea Dermeyer and Adrianne McNally have been solid.

This from a team I had pegged to go .500 at best in conference play. Way to prove me wrong.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Battle of the Boulevard -- Preview

4 hours from tip-off, here's my take on the game:

When Lipscomb has the ball, they need to take smart shots. LaKory Daniels needs to stay involved in the offense to keep the Belmont defense honest, but the Bruins' Achilles heel is 2-point defense. Belmont has adapted to a running style this year, and it leaves them tired on the defense end at times. If they play it right, Lipscomb is capable of hitting 50% or better inside the arc.

Of course, if Lipscomb tries to exploit Belmont's weakness inside, they may end up at the foul line a lot, which could play into Belmont's hands. Lipscomb only shoots 67% from the line in conference play. Lipscomb will need to make at least 70% to have a good shot tonight, especially if he game is close.

Wait, if? This is the Battle of the Boulevard. These games are always close.

If Daniels gets off to a good start, that will open up the inside game for Lipscomb. It will also create space for Eddie Ard to, well, be Eddie Ard.

Lipscomb also needs to take care of the ball. They average 15 turnovers per game in conference, and Belmont forces 16.

When Belmont has the ball, they will want to run. To do that well, they will need quality minutes out of all 9 guys in their rotation. This means not just scoring. They need to do the "other things" -- rebounding, passing, taking care of the ball, capitalizing on Lipscomb's mistakes. If Belmont will play their game at their pace, the points will come.

Fortunately for Belmont, Lipscomb's defensive style plays into their hands a bit. Lipscomb defends 2's and 3's at about the same rate. Plus, Belmont has 3 lights-out free-throw shooters.

If you're listening to the game on the radio (like I will have to), count the number of times you hear the names "Andy Wicke" (Belmont) and "Michael Lusk" (Lipscomb). Whichever name gets mentioned the most often will be on the winning team.

Now the pick -- Close game, down to the wire, but Belmont pulls it out at home. 83-81 Bruins.

Here's hoping I'm wrong.

Extra Thought

One possibility re: Mercer is conditioning.

In the last ten conference games, Mercer has hit 34 of 115 3-pointers in the second half and overtime, less than 30%. For one thing, that's way too many to be trying when you're only 33% from behind the arc under the best of circumstances. The other telling stat, though, is 2-point defense. Mercer's conference opponents become more likely to hit a 2-point shot as the game wears on. Both of these factors indicate a team whose legs are falling out from under them.

With Kennesaw and ETSU, Mercer plays the fastest pace in the conference. We could be seeing them simply running out of gas.

Their style worked great for one game against USC in November. But night in and night out, they just don't have the horses to sustain it.

Big Sports Day

Battle of the Boulevard is tonight. A Belmont win will all but wrap up at least an NIT bid, as that would leave them at least one game up on Jacksonville with the North Carolina teams coming to town next weekend.

Of course, a Lipscomb win will put them in prime position to get the 4-5 game. Right now that would set up a match-up with Stetson in the quarters, with Belmont or Jacksonville likely waiting in the semis. Lipscomb's best draw would be to face teams from the south division in the first two rounds, then face the survivor of a Belmont-ETSU semifinal. A win tomorrow would go a long way.

I have no idea what's going on at Mercer. They have good players. They post good numbers. But they just don't win. In all honesty, they should have been the class of the South Division, what with James Florence and Shadeen Aaron. Brian Pfhol and Calvin Henry are solid players, too. Four of their losses have been by 2, but so have 2 of their wins. They have lost twice to Stetson by a total of 4 points. According to Ken Pomeroy, they've been somewhat unlucky, but not overmuch. Lipscomb's luck has been worst in the conference. This team should simply be better than 6-8 in conference.

There has been some talk lately about conference shifts, especially now that the Ohio Valley Conference has dropped their football requirement. People in Nashville are all a-buzz about the possibility of Belmont and Lipscomb jumping.

I'm not so sure.

For one, Belmont and Lipscomb are virtually a package deal. Lipscomb sells about 20% of its total ticket sales to Belmont games. Belmont typically quadruples their average ticket sales when Lipscomb plays. Maybe TSU or Austin Peay can generate that kind of rivalry, but I doubt it.

Also, Lipscomb is clearly not ready to move up in conference. The A-Sun is one of the weakest conferences in the country in most sports (baseball being the glaring exception). But even against relatively easy competition, Lipscomb rarely puts up a winning record in anything. Lipscomb shouldn't be trying to beat Murray State until they prove they can handle Kennesaw State.

Plus, if you're the OVC, the school you want is ETSU. For one, they are restarting their football program. Plus, they are far and away the highest-grossing school in terms of basketball ticket sales. They lead the A-Sun in both home and road attendance. ETSU would be a perfect fit in the OVC.

Speaking of baseball, today is college baseball Opening Day. Stetson is the team to beat in the A-Sun, but Lipscomb has a couple of really good players. the question for the Bisons is whether the supporting cast is good enough to keep up.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Back In Town

Back from Gatlinburg. I might comment later on Winterfest, but probably not.

While I was away:

-- Shane Dansby went off. The Belmont junior followed a 28 & 8 against ETSU with a double-double against Upstate. The conference awarded Dansby its Player of the Week award.

-- Jonathan Rodriguez virtually clinched the A-Sun Player of the Year. In two games this week, J-Rod posted 34 points and 9 boards against G-W and 28 points and 7 boards in a non-conference game with Longwood. Amazingly, Campbell found a way to lose both games.

-- James Florence is a great scorer, but that's about it. And dude takes a LOT of shots.

-- Josh Slater had his best game as a Lipscomb Bison. Against Upstate, he scored 17 points, pulled down 10 boards, and dished out 7 assists.

-- USC Upstate's women got their first-ever conference win, beating Lipscomb Saturday. Player of the Geme Courtney Hawkins had 26 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 steals for a PEG of 27.

-- As much as it pains me to say it, Lipscomb has the capacity to be really bad for a really long time. Against USC-U, the Lady Bisons were outscored 26-4 over a nine minute stretch of the second half. This against a team, remeber, who had yet to win a conference game. Upstate had 15 steals. Fifteen. Granted, there have been injuries (Toia McGowan, Miriam McAlsiter, Tiffany Arnold), but somehow Lispcomb seems to have more problems like this than normal.

Battle of the Boulevard II is Friday. 3 Miles. 2 Schools. 1 Great Rivalry. Let's get it on.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

I Hate NASCAR

I hate NASCAR.

There. I said it.

News Item: Jimmy Johnson is on the pole for Daytona.
My question: How is his crew chief cheating this time?

News Item: Michael Waltrip is on the outside of the front row.
My question: How much sterno did he have to put into his fuel line to go that fast?

Bud Selig thinks NASCAR needs to crack down on cheaters if they want to be taken seriously.

And we're surprised about all the fights? Come on, NECK-CAR. Wehn Bill Beli-cheat got caught and Pac-Man Jones got in trouble, they got called to a New York penthouse. When Tony Stewart punched Kurt Busch, he got called on the orange shag carpet of a double-wide in Florida.

Seriously. Trailer parks, brawls, and driving in circles? The only thing missing from this Jeff Foxworthy bit is the three-legged coon dog and a wallet on a chain.

Get off my TV.

A-Sun Men This Week

So interdivisional play is wrapped up this week. The South went a combined 13-23 against the North. Look for some over-seeded teams to come to Nashville.

Memo to Lipscomb -- Whatever you do, don't finish 6th in the final conference standings. The 6 seed will most likely have to get through Belmont and ETSU just to get to the title game. If Lipscomb can get into a 4 or 5 slot, they probably draw Stetson and Jacksonville, both teams they have handled at home this year. Whatever else happens in the next three games, Lipscomb abslutely MUST sweep G-W and Campbell when they come to town to wrap up the regular season.

There were lots of huge individual performances this week, but Thomas Sanders of Gardner-Webb had the fourth-best game of any player all year. Against Kennesaw State, Sanders scored 30 points and added 11 boards.

Stetson's win over ETSU might be the biggest upset we've seen so far. Either that or Stetson is better than the 6-10 record I projected for them. Oh, well. I've been wrong before.

A-Sun Review -- Women

Look for multiple blog entries today.

First up, the week in A-Sun basketball:

Turns out the answer to one of last week's questions was a resounding yes. Jennifer Bowen returns to the North Florida starting line-up, and lo and behold the Lady Ospreys sweep their Nashville trip, including their first-ever win at Belmont. Bowen had 23 against the Lady Bruins, then followed that up with 17 more at Lipscomb. Her PEG for the weekend was a solid 17.5.

But even with that, she might not get A-Sun Player of the Week. Brittney Henderson was absolutely unbelievable. Against Gardner-Webb, she had 22 points and 21 (!) rebounds. Then against Campbell, she had 28 points on 11 of 13 shooting. Throw in 11 more boards and you have your Player of the Week.

Then again, I was wrong in another spot. Florida Gulf Coast upset ETSU, which will happen sometimes. Where I was dead wrong was how good this team would be. Pre-season, I projected them to go 7-9 in conference, hovering around the middle of the pack. Today they sit 9-2, tied for first with ETSU and Jacksonville, who lost last night at Belmont. Player of the Game Ashley Haegele posted 18 points and 7 boards against ETSU. Delia de la Torre also had a huge weekend, postinga PEG of 21.0.

The remaining open question for FGCU is depth. Their starters - who are really good -- averaged 30.7 minutes per game this weekend. How long can FGCU sustain this pace?

Friday, February 8, 2008

Lipscomb 74, North Florida 42

And it wasn't that close.

UNF shot exactly zero free throws. They scored 42 points despite missing 42 shots. Their team PEP was an anemic .439, compared to Lipscomb's 1.535.

Get this: Lipscomb won by 30 on a night when Eddie Ard made only one basket.

Across town, Belmont beat Jacksonville 84-78 to move into a tie for the league lead. This makes the Lipscomb-Jacksonville game Saturday absolutely huge. If the Dolphins get swept in Nashville, it raises a question about whether this team can win here in March.

Granted, the A-Sun North is a much tougher division. If Upstate can beat Stetson tonight, the whole division will be .500 or better. Since the last five games are in division, North Division teams can cannabilize each other while Jacksonville rolls through the South again and locks up the 1-seed and NIT berth. Even with a loss on Saturday, don't be surprised to see Jacksonville come to Allen Arena for the conference tournament with a 13-3 or 12-4 record.

But a 3-3 mark against the North raises the question of whether the new unbalanced A-Sun schedule has adequately prepared Jacksonville to run a North-heavy gauntlet in March. Jacksonville is the only team in the South Division with a record against the North over .500. As a division, the South is 10 games under .500 against the North -- and that's including Kennesaw's sweep in Nashville and Jacksonville's sweep in North Carolina. Going into tonight, the North has won 14 of the last 16 against the South, the only two losses coming at the hands of the Dolphins (against GW and Campbell).

And when conference tournament time rolls around, there will be 5 North Division teams in the field, but only 3 from the South.

Stay tuned.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Coming Up in the A-Sun

Big events this weekend:

Jacksonville comes to Nashville. If they can go home with at least a split, I'll be convinced. If they get swept, that might be that.

The Jumble. Right now there are six -- SIX -- teams tied for fifth place with a 4-5 conference record. Mercer playes two of them, GW & Campbell.

Best game -- Upstate @ Stetson. Campbell v. Mercer shoudl be pretty good, too.

Best women's game -- Gardner-Webb @ Kennesaw.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

A-Sun Week in Review

This might be the jinx the rest of the conference is looking for, but I'm prepared to say that Jacksonville just might be the real deal.

After a sub-par pre-conference run, even for an A-Sun team, Jacksonville has won 8 of 9. This weekend they swept G-W and Campbell at home. Up to this weekend, I pegged the A-Sun race as a 2-team battle between Belmont and ETSU. I still like Belmont as the favorite, but Jacksonville has earned their spot as the third team in the hunt.

And all hail Kevin Tiggs. Jonathan Rodriguez is far and away the best player in the league, but Tiggs is the best player on one of the top 3 teams. Against Stetson, he went off for 26 points and 12 boards. Of the ten best single-game performances this year against D-1 competition, Tiggs and Rodriguez have 4 each.

On the women's side, ETSU and Kennesaw lived up to the hype. The Lady Bucs came out on top 81-77, but they had to shoot 70% and hold KSU under 30% in the second half to get there. Siarre Evans had a huge second half, scoring 13 points on 4-5 FGs and FTs, plus 5 boards and 2 assists. In the second half. In this league, that's a good night.

The best question -- Now that Jennifer Bowen is back, will North Florida play like they did earlier? Bowen, UNF's leader in points and minutes per game, missed 8 games in December and January, returning to play 34 minutes off the bench in the Osprey's loss to Jacksonville a couple of weeks ago.

The results haven't shown up in the Win column yet. UNF was 5-3 in games Bowen missed, but only 1-5 since her return. Still, you can't help but believe getting one of your best players back should help.

UNF was one of the teams I picked early on to challenge Jacksonville for the conference lead. They are really well balanced, play a slow, deliberate pace, don't shoot a terrible lot of 3's, and at 0.72 PEP they guard the daylights out of you. They should be better than 4-5 in conference.

Especially this conference.

Friday, February 1, 2008

A-Sun Baseball Preseason Poll

Now this is odd.

Stetson is the overwhelming pick to win the conference this year. Nothing weird there.

What's strange is that the pictures on the A-Sun website are of Lipscomb players. Bisons sophomore Rex Brothers is the pre-season Pitcher of the Year, and junior Caleb Joseph is Co-player of the Year.

What's really weird is that Lipscomb is picked for finish tenth. That's right -- tenth. The best pitcher in the conference, one of the best players in the conference, and the supporting cast is good enough to rank them TENTH?

Strange.