Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 28, 2012

Been sick all weekend, so I'm way behind. Quick update for now, comments with the next update (Thursday-ish??)






1 Kentucky Syracuse Michigan State Kansas
16 MVSU/Weber State UNC-Asheville/Stony Brook Norfolk State Lehigh
8 Temple Iowa State Creighton Purdue
9 Texas Murray State San Diego State Notre Dame
4 Georgetown Wichita State Florida Louisville
13 MTSU Belmont Cincinnati/Arizona Iona
5 Michigan Vanderbilt Gonzaga UNLV
12 Harvard N. C. State/Xavier Long Beach State Miami (FL)*
2 Missouri North Carolina Duke Ohio State
15 Akron Cleveland State Wagner Texas-Arlington
7 Virginia Kansas State St. Louis Florida State
10 Connecticut St. Mary's Seton Hall Southern Miss
3 Wisconsin Indiana Baylor Marquette
14 New Mexico State Davidson Oral Roberts VCU
6 Memphis New Mexico California Alabama
11 Washington* West Virginia* Northwestern* BYU

Teams marked with an * are the most likely to fall into the PIG once Conference Tournament season gets good and weird.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 22, 2012

Here's the latest. I plan to update more often as the day draws nigh. I don't know exactly how often, but I suspect more than once a week at least.

Also, thee was a slight tweak of the algorithm this week. I wanted to tinker with the balance of resume strength and prediction to try to get as close to what the committee does as I can. I can see a little bit of movement in the numbers, but not much.

This week's bracket:

1 Kentucky Syracuse Michigan State Kansas
16 MVSU/Lehigh Vermont/UNC-Asheville Norfolk State Weber State
8 Texas Gonzaga Southern Miss Alabama
9 St. Mary's Iowa State West Virginia Notre Dame
4 New Mexico Indiana Florida Louisville
13 Cincinnati/Minnesota* Long Beach State Iona Belmont
5 St. Louis UNLV Wichita State Michigan
12 Miami (FL)**
Mississippi State** Arizona/N C State* BYU**
2 North Carolina Duke Missouri Ohio State
15 Wagner New Mexico State Cleveland State Texas-Arlington
7 Kansas State Creighton Virginia Temple
10 Murray State Connecticut San Diego State Harvard
3 Wisconsin Baylor Georgetown Marquette
14 Akron Davidson Oral Roberts VCU
6 Memphis Vanderbilt California Florida State
11 Seton Hall Purdue Northwestern** MTSU

*In the Media mock bracket conducted by the NCAA this week, there were 21 Auto-bids below the last at-large. In my bracket, there are 17. Given the rate of upsets in conference tournaments historically, it seems reasonable to guess that during Championship Fortnight, the bubble will shrink by 3-4 teams.

So if I have you in the At-Large PIG, you're probably more likely to end up in the NIT barring a deeper-than-expected tournament run of your own and/or a complete lack of Championship Fortnight upsets.

The teams marked with a ** would, similarly, fall into the AL-PIG when the upsets happen.

INS & OUTS:

IN -- Cincinnati, New Mexico State, Lehigh
OUT -- Illinois, Nevada, Bucknell

BIGGEST MOVERS:

St. Mary's (6 to 9), San Diego State (7 to 10), BYU (9 to 12)

Virginia (5 to 7), West Virginia (11 to 9), Notre Dame (11 to 9), Northwestern (13 to 11), Mississippi State (10 to 12)

TOP 10 OUT:

Xavier, Washington, St. Joseph's, Drexel, LaSalle, South Dakota State, Oregon, Illinois, Central Florida, Wyoming

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 14, 2012

For such a topsy-turvy week, very little change in this week's Random Nerd Bracketology. 3 new conference leaders, 2 new at-larges, and a few teams moving up or down a bit.

But this is the way it's supposed to be. As the season goes on, the picture is supposed to get clearer, right?

Right?

Anyway, here's this week's bracket:

1 Kentucky Syracuse Ohio State Kansas
16 Texas-Arlington/MVSU UNC-Asheville/Vermont Norfolk State Weber State
8 Temple Southern Miss Creighton Gonzaga
9 Iowa State BYU Texas Alabama
4 Georgetown Florida Louisville UNLV
13 Long Beach State Iona Northwestern/Arizona Oral Roberts
5 New Mexico Michigan Virginia Wichita State
12 Purdue Seton Hall/N. C. State MTSU Minnesota
2 North Carolina Duke Missouri Michigan State
15 Cleveland State Wagner Bucknell Nevada
7 Kansas State San Diego State Vanderbilt Florida State
10 Connecticut Harvard Miami (FL) Mississippi State
3 Baylor Wisconsin Indiana Marquette
14 Akron Davidson VCU Belmont
6 St. Mary's St. Louis Memphis California
11 Illinois Notre Dame West Virginia Murray State

INS AND OUTS:

IN: Akron, UNC-Asheville, Vermont, Northwestern, N. C. State
OUT: Xavier, Wyoming, Ohio U, Stony Brook, Coastal Carolina

BIGGEST MOVERS:

Creighton (4 to 8), Memphis (9 to 6), Temple (11 to 8), BYU (12 to 9), Miami-FL (13 to 10), Murray State (8 to 11)

Baylor (1 to 3), New Mexico (7 to 5), St. Louis (8 to 6), Florida State (5 to 7), Southern Miss (6 to 8), Texas (11 to 9), Illinois (9 to 11), Seton Hall (10 to 12), Cleveland State (13 to 15)

BUBBLE TOP 10: Xavier, Wyoming, Drexel, Cincinnati, South Dakota State, St. Joseph's, Washington, LaSalle, Central Florida, Stanford

BY CONFERENCE: ACC 6, A-10 2, Big East 8, Big 10 9, Big XII 6, C-USA 2, Missouri Valey 2, Mountain West 3, PAC-12 2, SEC 5, West Coast 3

Monday, February 6, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 6, 2012

These projections are as of games of Sunday, February 4.

Also, as I mentioned in the comments, these projections are a hybrid of the "season to date" and the "projection of season" methods. In determining my conference auto-bids, I look at a combination of straight ordinal ranking, MOV, and tempo-free stats to determine which team is most likely to win the conference tournament. Then, for bracket purposes, I assume they all do.

I know.

I then take the 37 best teams that the numbers say will need an at-large, give them one, and bracket from there.

So, this field is based on the assumptions that: 1) conference tournaments will go according to script, with everybody losing when they're "supposed to" and 2) conference tournament winners will be viewed more highly by the committee and get seeding bonuses relative to at-larges. (That's why Baylor has been a one-seed the last two weeks. My numbers have them beating Kansas for the Big XII title, while Michigan State loses to Ohio State in the Big 10 final).

Now I'm not naive enough to think March will go completely according to form. With the exception of the 2008 Final Four, it's been a long time since we've seen any degree of March Blandness. Things get weird. That's why, if you're one of the Top 10 Out, you'd be well advised to move up as best as you can as quickly as you can before crazy stuff starts to happen regularly.

Side note about the Top 10 Out: Consider them your Championship Fortnight Watch List. These are the teams the computer tells me are most likely to make a March run and land in the bracket, but not necessarily the ones that are most likely to slide in if somebody else stumbles. To move up, they need to get farther in their conference tournaments than the computer says they "should."

Example: South Dakota State. I, for one, don't really think South Dakota State is the 38th best at-large. But they are good enough to beat Oral Roberts one time in a one-and-done scenario, and if they do they'll likely find themselves on the 13 (or at worst 14) line on Selection Sunday. But since they're "supposed to" make the Summit League final, the only way they can improve their bracket position relative to other at-larges during Championship Fortnight is to actually win the tournament and not need an at-large.

A quick note about comments: Unless you're Spam or an SEO, I will post and respond as best I can. And I don't mind anonymous comments. But please let me know whether you are a Bracketology Expert Type or a Random Fan, so I know how much explaining I need to do when I respond. I don't want to insult your intelligence by talking about things like sample size and committee relevant vs. irrelevant data if you already know all of that and all you want to know is why I put a given team where I did. I enjoy engaging the BETs, and even enjoy interacting with RFs, but since I'm new at this it would help me a lot if I knew which was which when I responded.

Thanks.

On to this week's projection:

1 Syracuse Kentucky Ohio State Baylor
16 MVSU/Texas-Arlington Stony Brook/Coastal Carolina Norfolk State Weber State
8 San Diego State Murray State St. Louis Gonzaga
9 Memphis Illinois Iowa State Connecticut
4 Indiana Marquette UNLV Creighton
13 Xavier/Miami (FL) Iona Cleveland State Wyoming/Arizona
5 St. Mary's Florida State Louisville Virginia
12 MTSU BYU Long Beach State Purdue
2 Missouri Kansas North Carolina Michigan State
15 Ohio U Wagner Nevada Bucknell
7 Vanderbilt New Mexico California Alabama
10 West Virginia Mississippi State Seton Hall Harvard
3 Duke Wisconsin Florida Georgetown
14 VCU Belmont Davidson Oral Roberts
6 Michigan Wichita State Kansas State Southern Miss
11 Temple Notre Dame Minnesota Texas

INS AND OUTS:

IN: Arizona. Coastal Carolina, Notre Dame
OUT: UNC-Asheville, Cincinnati, LaSalle

BIGGEST MOVERS:

St. Louis (11 to 8), Virginia (3 to 5), Southern Miss (8 to 6), Vanderbilt (5 to 7), San Diego State (6 to 8), West Virginia (8 to 10), Temple (9 to 11), Minnesota (9 to 11)

BUBBLE TOP 10: South Dakota State, LaSalle, Northwestern, Washington, Arkansas, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Drexel, Akron, N. C. State

BY CONFERENCE: ACC 5, A-10 3, Big 10 8, Big East 8, Big XII 6, Missouri Valley 2, Mountain West 4, Pac 12 2, SEC 5, West Coast 3