Sunday, March 11, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- Selection Sunday FINAL BRACKET

Thank you to St. Bonaventure for making some of the ins and outs calls a bit easier.

Here you go:

1 Kentucky North Carolina Syracuse Kansas
16 MVSU/Long Island Western Kentucky/Vermont Norfolk State Lamar
8 St. Mary's Texas Virginia Murray State
9 Purdue Cincinnati St. Louis Alabama
4 Georgetown Michigan Florida New Mexico
13 Davidson Colorado Belmont South Dakota State
5 Kansas State Vanderbilt Memphis Creighton
12 Miami (FL) / Xavier Long Beach State VCU South Florida / Southern Miss
2 Duke Missouri Michigan State Ohio State
15 UNC-Asheville Loyola (MD) Detroit Lehigh
7 Iowa State UNLV Gonzaga Temple
10 Connecticut Notre Dame West Virginia California
3 Indiana Wisconsin Baylor Marquette
14 St. Bonaventure New Mexico State Ohio U Montana
6 Wichita State Louisville San Diego State Florida State
11 Colorado State BYU N. C. State Harvard

By conference: Big East 9, ACC 6, Big Ten 6, Big XII 6, Atlantic 10 4, Mountain West 4, SEC 4, West Coast 3, Conference USA 2, Missouri Valley 2, PAC 12 2.

Best teams out: Washington, Northwestern, Mississippi State, Drexel, Iona, MTSU, Seton Hall, Tennessee, Oral Roberts.

Friday, March 9, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 9, 2012

I give up.

I give up on trying to keep Colorado State out of the tournament. Even though their RPI is the only thing going for them, nobody else seems to want the spot. Washington and Northwestern are desperately trying to play their way out, Mississippi State actually did play their way out, and South Florida is still a byword for "style of play."

I am strongly tempted to put MTSU, Iona, and Drexel in just because.

But I know better. This is about guessing what the committee will do, not tellig them what they should do.

It's nice to be proven right about Miami. And watch out for N. C. State, Arizona, and Tennessee as potential bid thieves. The good news is that Xavier and Southern Miss are the only teams left in the "danger zone" who could potentially lose their way out.

Today's bracket -- not much change at the top. Some shuffling along the cut line -- Colorado State in, Mississippi State out, Washington and Northwestern into the PIG, South Florida (despite losing) into a 12 slot.

Here you go:

1 Kentucky North Carolina Syracuse Kansas
16 MVSU/Long Island Western Kentucky/Stony Brook Norfolk State Lamar
8 Texas California Murray State Virginia
9 Purdue San Diego State St. Mary's Alabama
4 Georgetown Michigan Florida New Mexico
13 VCU South Dakota State Washington/Northwestern Seton Hall/Xavier
5 Kansas State Memphis Creighton Wichita State
12 Long Beach State South Florida Belmont Harvard
2 Duke Missouri Michigan State Ohio State
15 UNC-Asheville Loyola (MD) Detroit Lehigh
7 Iowa State Vanderbilt Florida State Gonzaga
10 Connecticut Notre Dame West Virginia Cincinnati
3 Indiana Wisconsin Baylor Marquette
14 Davidson New Mexico State Ohio U Montana
6 UNLV Louisville St. Louis Temple
11 Southern Miss BYU Colorado State Miami (FL)

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 8, 2012

Slight change today, as I've put South Florida in over Iona.

As for Colorado State, one of the criteria I use is this: If this team were an autobid, where would I seed them? If I were giving Colorado State an autobid, based on what I've seen so far they'd be either the last 13 or the first 14, roughly comparable with Davidson or South Dakota State.

I know, I know. You're not supposed to worry about seeding until everybody has been selected. But still. If this is the one part of the selection process I get wrong, I can live with that. But I suspect that I'm less enamored of the RPI than some of the other folks doing brackets, and I think my approach mimics what the committee has been saying all year.

Through games of 3/7/12:

1 Kentucky North Carolina Syracuse Kansas
16 MVSU/Long Island Western Kentucky/Stony Brook Norfolk State Detroit
8 Texas Murray State California Virginia
9 Purdue San Diego State St. Mary's Alabama
4 Georgetown Michigan Florida New Mexico
13 VCU South Florida/Mississippi State South Dakota State Seton Hall/Xavier
5 Kansas State Memphis Creighton Wichita State
12 Long Beach State Belmont Northwestern Harvard
2 Duke Missouri Michigan State Ohio State
15 UNC-Asheville Loyola (MD) Texas-Arlington Lehigh
7 Iowa State Vanderbilt Florida State Gonzaga
10 Connecticut Notre Dame West Virginia Cincinnati
3 Indiana Wisconsin Baylor Marquette
14 Davidson New Mexico State Ohio U Montana
6 UNLV Louisville St. Louis Temple
11 Washington BYU Southern Miss Miami (FL)

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 7, 2012

Bubble Breakdown: (Last 5 in, first 5 out)

Arizona -- Out. Behind Colorado State, South Florida, N. C. State, Drexel, and MTSU. May well need an autobid to get in.

Colorado State -- Out, for now. First team out. They can get in if something good happens for them (beating SDSU would be a good start) or if something bad happens to a team currently in the field.

Drexel -- Out, for now. That said, if Colorado State, South Florida, and N. C. State all underwhelm this week, the last spot could come down to them, Iona, and maybe MTSU. At that point, it's rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock.

Iona -- In, but barely. #37 on the At-large list, but the tiniest of margins separates them from Drexel, the fourth team out. They're going to have to hope that everything -- and I mean EVERYTHING -- goes according to form this week. This is the slot that the committee is looking for a reason to give to somebody else.

Miami -- In. They're sitting at #33 in my at-large rankings, so barring a horrendous loss or more than one miracle run in the conference tournaments, they should feel safe. That said, losing to Georgia Tech would qualify as horrendous. 2 wins would make them untouchable.

Mississippi State -- In, for now. At-large #36. Beat Vandy, and they're in for sure. Lose to Georgia, and they're out for sure. Lose to Vandy, and their fate is in other people's hands.

N. C. State -- Out. Third team out, behind South Florida and Colorado State. Could easily switch places with one of them wit a win over UVa on Friday. Lose to BC and they're done.

Seton Hall -- In. At-large #34. A win over Louisville tonight should clinch it. Even with a loss, they still might get there.

South Florida -- Out. Second team out, behind Colorado State. The committee seems to want to do whatever it takes to avoid a repeat of last year's final, and punishing teams that "win ugly" may be how they do it. USF can force their hand, however, with a win over Notre Dame tomorrow.

Washington -- In as at-large #32. Even if they don't win the Pac 12 autobid (which I'm projecting to go to Cal), it would take a disaster to keep them out. Their seed line may not reflect it, but they're long way from being in danger. Then again, this is March. Weird stuff happens.

Xavier -- In, for now. At-large #35. Must beat Dayton to keep it, and making the A-10 finals would lock it up.

Bracket Update for today:

1 Kentucky North Carolina Syracuse Kansas
16 MVSU/Detroit Stony Brook/Western Kentucky
Norfolk State Robert Morris
8 California Alabama Gonzaga Virginia
9 Purdue Murray State Texas Notre Dame
4 Kansas State Georgetown Michigan Florida
13 South Dakota State VCU Mississippi State/Iona Seton Hall/Xavier
5 Louisville Creighton New Mexico Wichita State
12 Long Beach State Northwestern Washington Harvard
2 Duke Missouri Michigan State Ohio State
15 Lehigh Texas-Arlington Loyola (MD) UNC-Asheville
7 Iowa State Temple Florida State Saint Mary's
10 Connecticut West Virginia Cincinnati San Diego State
3 Indiana Wisconsin Baylor Marquette
14 Montana Ohio U New Mexico State Davidson
6 Memphis UNLV Vanderbilt St. Louis
11 Belmont BYU Southern Miss Miami (FL)

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 5, 2012

Update for Tuesday.

In the half-dozen-or-so years I've been playing with this, I've seen stronger bubbles. I've also seen weaker bubbles. But I can't remember a bubble this tightly-packed.

Mississippi State is back in, but barely. A win over Georgia would make me feel a lot better about them.

Colorado State is still out, but (again) barely. They have a great chance to show me something in the MWC tournament. A win over SDSU would put them in. A loss to TCU would put them out. Something in between, and they're right in the mix. I mentioned in a comment earlier that this is the sort of situation where the committee likes to send a message -- in this case, that racking up a huge RPI is not necessarily a ticket-puncher.

Deciding between Iona, Drexel, USF, and Arizona for the last spot became essentially a random draw. I went with Iona on the strength of winning their conference regular season and the fact that USF tends to "win ugly." Not that that should matter, but I've heard "style of play" too often from committee interviews to discount it completely.

Top 10 Bubble Teams: Arizona, Drexel, N. C. State, Oregon, MTSU, South Florida, Colorado State, Oral Roberts, Saint Joseph's.

Bids by conference: ACC 5, A-10 3, Big 10 7, Big East 9, Big 12 6, C-USA 2, Metro 2 (for now), Mountain West 3, Pac 12 2, SEC 5, Valley 2, West Coast 3

Don't Get Too Comfortable -- Northwestern, Washington, Harvard, Miami (FL), Southern Miss, Long Beach State


1 Kentucky North Carolina Syracuse Kansas
16 MVSU/Robert Morris Stony Brook/North Texas Norfolk State Valparaiso
8 California Alabama Gonzaga Virginia
9 Purdue Murray State Texas Notre Dame
4 Kansas State Georgetown Michigan Florida
13 South Dakota State VCU Mississippi State/Iona Seton Hall/Xavier
5 Louisville Creighton New Mexico Wichita State
12 Long Beach State Northwestern Washington Harvard
2 Duke Missouri Michigan State Ohio State
15 Lehigh Texas-Arlington Loyola (MD) UNC-Asheville
7 Iowa State Temple Florida State Saint Mary's
10 Connecticut West Virginia Cincinnati San Diego State
3 Indiana Wisconsin Baylor Marquette
14 Montana Ohio U New Mexico State Davidson
6 Memphis UNLV Vanderbilt St. Louis
11 Belmont BYU Southern Miss Miami (FL)

Friday, March 2, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 2, 2012

Here's the latest. I'm finally sold on South Florida, at least enough to put them in the Zombie PIG slot. Still not convinced an RPI in the 20s is enough for Colorado State. Mississippi State is done. The model is picking South Dakota State to beat Oral Roberts in the Summit final. More commentary as time permits this weekend.

1 Kentucky Syracuse Kansas Michigan State
16 MVSU/Lehigh Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville Norfolk State Montana
8 Creighton Temple Florida State Iowa State
9 San Diego State Texas Notre Dame Murray State
4 Marquette Michigan Florida Vanderbilt
13 MTSU Arizona/Cincinnati South Florida/Xavier Iona
5 Wichita State Memphis New Mexico Louisville
12 Northwestern Harvard Belmont Long Beach State
2 Missouri Duke Ohio State North Carolina
15 Ohio U Cleveland State Wagner Texas-Arlington
7 Virginia Alabama Gonzaga Purdue
10 West Virginia St. Mary's Washington Connecticut
3 Wisconsin Indiana Georgetown Baylor
14 New Mexico State Davidson South Dakota State VCU
6 California Kansas State St. Louis UNLV
11 Miami (FL) Seton Hall Southern Miss BYU