Yes, I'm planning to enter the Clarksville Half-Marathon in November.
See the updates on the left side of the page to keep track of my training.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
The Stolen Base and the Non-Standard Jeopardy Wager
Over on the Jeopardy message boards, a user raised an interesting point regarding Monday night's game. If a non-standard FJ wager from the lead increases a player's chances of winning, even slightly, why do leaders not play the gambit more often?
Seattle Mariners fans have been asking themselves that question for years.
Ichiro Suzuki may be the best hit-it-and-run-type baseball player we've seen since the demise of the Negro Leagues. In 8 1/2 years in the majors, he has averaged 230 hits and 110 runs every 162 games, with almost as many triples as HRs. He is also one of the game's best base stealers, landing safely over 80% of the time.
But for as often as he gets to first base, and as good as he is at stealing second, he almost never tries it. Ichiro has stood on first base over 2100 times, but has only tried to steal second just under 400 times.
Part of the equation is risk and reward. In baseball, moving up one base makes it easier for your teammates to bat you around, but to get that base you take a chance on being thrown out. The Baseball Prospectus people say that in today's offensive environment, to make base stealing worth the risk, a player has to be successful over 70% of the time. Thus, for most players, frequent base stealing is counterproductive.
Most players, however, are not Ichiro.
Another consideration is game situation. Ichiro is more likely to run in the late innings of close games, or when he has a chance to give his team a quick, early lead. In the middle of games, or late in blowouts, he's probably not going.
That said, even when the game is on the line, the odds are about 3.6 to 1 against seeing Ichiro take off.
I suspect there might be a connection between why Ichiro doesn't run any more than he does and why even the most wagering-savvy players don't use gambits more often. Like the stolen base, the non-standard wager is most effective when it is deployed selectively. Even in situations where a non-standard wager optimizes one's chances of winning a particular match, there is a case to be made for a "mixed strategy," as even the best-laid formulae of mice and men can succomb to dumb luck. Plus, the decision to use a non-standard wager can also be influenced by a "read" -- either of the FJ category or the behavior of the other player(s). Some people are better than others at diving another person's intentions by their body language, just as some base runners are better than others at "reading" the pitcher.
For the record, I agree that non-standard wagers should be made more often than they are. I also think Ichiro should run more. But if you're a Jeopardy hopeful, and you want to make non-standard wagering part of your tool-kit on game day, make absolutely sure you know what you're doing, because there is a significant risk to it.
After all, they don't call it "Jeopardy" for nothing.
Seattle Mariners fans have been asking themselves that question for years.
Ichiro Suzuki may be the best hit-it-and-run-type baseball player we've seen since the demise of the Negro Leagues. In 8 1/2 years in the majors, he has averaged 230 hits and 110 runs every 162 games, with almost as many triples as HRs. He is also one of the game's best base stealers, landing safely over 80% of the time.
But for as often as he gets to first base, and as good as he is at stealing second, he almost never tries it. Ichiro has stood on first base over 2100 times, but has only tried to steal second just under 400 times.
Part of the equation is risk and reward. In baseball, moving up one base makes it easier for your teammates to bat you around, but to get that base you take a chance on being thrown out. The Baseball Prospectus people say that in today's offensive environment, to make base stealing worth the risk, a player has to be successful over 70% of the time. Thus, for most players, frequent base stealing is counterproductive.
Most players, however, are not Ichiro.
Another consideration is game situation. Ichiro is more likely to run in the late innings of close games, or when he has a chance to give his team a quick, early lead. In the middle of games, or late in blowouts, he's probably not going.
That said, even when the game is on the line, the odds are about 3.6 to 1 against seeing Ichiro take off.
I suspect there might be a connection between why Ichiro doesn't run any more than he does and why even the most wagering-savvy players don't use gambits more often. Like the stolen base, the non-standard wager is most effective when it is deployed selectively. Even in situations where a non-standard wager optimizes one's chances of winning a particular match, there is a case to be made for a "mixed strategy," as even the best-laid formulae of mice and men can succomb to dumb luck. Plus, the decision to use a non-standard wager can also be influenced by a "read" -- either of the FJ category or the behavior of the other player(s). Some people are better than others at diving another person's intentions by their body language, just as some base runners are better than others at "reading" the pitcher.
For the record, I agree that non-standard wagers should be made more often than they are. I also think Ichiro should run more. But if you're a Jeopardy hopeful, and you want to make non-standard wagering part of your tool-kit on game day, make absolutely sure you know what you're doing, because there is a significant risk to it.
After all, they don't call it "Jeopardy" for nothing.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
U. S. Open
Good luck to Kennesaw State junior golfer Matt Nagy as he tees offf in the U. S. Open tomorrow.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
The New Guy
A few thoughts on the new late-night TV talk show regime:
-- There's a reason Conan O'Brien's Late Night show took off after Andy Richter left.
-- The String Dance is still funny. And yes, I am an infant.
-- The funniest human being in late night is Craig Ferguson. Last night he did TMBG's "Istanbul" in the show intro. I'm not sure if I laughed harder at that, or the Britney Spears thing, or the goat song from Sound of Music. And that's just the intro. (Hey, I'm an infant. I have a thing for puppets.)
-- Ferguson also has the best monologue in the business. No surprise there; he's been a stand-up comedian for twenty years. Letterman is better at the scripted bits, but nobody is better night in and night out up front that Ferguson.
-- I keep waiting for Letterman to throw me off his lawn.
-- According to people who have seen Leno on TV and in person, on TV Leno "pretends to be dumber and less funny that he really is." I really hope that's true.
-- Leno reminds me of one of those insipid "Spirit Rock" radio stations that bills itself as "safe for the whole family." OK, but what fun is that?
-- Jimmy Fallon just isn't funny. It's not for lack of effort, but that may be the problem. He needs to "try easier." If you go looking for the funny, it will hide forever. Let the funny come to you.
-- Jimmy Fallon may also need some better writers. One thing Leno and Conan are both known for is surrounding themselves with genuinely funny people. Most of the funny people Fallon knows are either SNL alums or the cast of 30 Rock.
-- Fallon would be well-advised to take a page from Ferguson's play-book. Let the viewers in. Fallon tries so hard to be "interactive" with his audience, but it seems forced. Show us who you are. Give us a reason to like you.
-- Fallon's two best moves so far have been "Seventh Floor West" and having Drew Barrymore as a guest. Drew knows him well enough to bring out his personality. I'm sure there is one in there somewhere.
-- Jimmy Kimmel is stuck in time-slot purgatory. Here he doesn't come on until 11:30, so his monologue has to go head-to-head against Ferguson. No contest. In most of the country he comes on at the top of the hour, after Nightline. For starters, with Nightline as a lead-in he's not going to get too terrible much audience. Plus, most folks have settled into Conan or Letterman by then.
-- Hulu has introduced me to Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert. Being on cable gives them liberties -- both with language and more importantly with content -- that network guys just don't have.
My own personal Top 5 Hosts:
1. Craig Ferguson
2. Jon Stewart (far and away the best interviewer)
3. Steven Colbert
4. Conan O'Brien
5. David Letterman
Top 3 Announcers:
1. Alan Kulter
2. Shadoe Stevens
3. Higgins
HNORABLE MENTION -- Don Pardo. His Jeopardy legacy notwithstanding, he showed the new guys how it's done week in and week out on SNL. Enjoy your retirement, Don.
Top 3 Bands/Bandleaders:
1. Max Weinberg & The Tonight Show Band
2. Cleto & the Cletones
3. The Roots
Top 5 Gimmicks:
1. Craig Ferguson's show intros
2. Triumph the Insult Comic Dog
3. The Word
4. Fun Facts
5. John Oliver on anything British
-- There's a reason Conan O'Brien's Late Night show took off after Andy Richter left.
-- The String Dance is still funny. And yes, I am an infant.
-- The funniest human being in late night is Craig Ferguson. Last night he did TMBG's "Istanbul" in the show intro. I'm not sure if I laughed harder at that, or the Britney Spears thing, or the goat song from Sound of Music. And that's just the intro. (Hey, I'm an infant. I have a thing for puppets.)
-- Ferguson also has the best monologue in the business. No surprise there; he's been a stand-up comedian for twenty years. Letterman is better at the scripted bits, but nobody is better night in and night out up front that Ferguson.
-- I keep waiting for Letterman to throw me off his lawn.
-- According to people who have seen Leno on TV and in person, on TV Leno "pretends to be dumber and less funny that he really is." I really hope that's true.
-- Leno reminds me of one of those insipid "Spirit Rock" radio stations that bills itself as "safe for the whole family." OK, but what fun is that?
-- Jimmy Fallon just isn't funny. It's not for lack of effort, but that may be the problem. He needs to "try easier." If you go looking for the funny, it will hide forever. Let the funny come to you.
-- Jimmy Fallon may also need some better writers. One thing Leno and Conan are both known for is surrounding themselves with genuinely funny people. Most of the funny people Fallon knows are either SNL alums or the cast of 30 Rock.
-- Fallon would be well-advised to take a page from Ferguson's play-book. Let the viewers in. Fallon tries so hard to be "interactive" with his audience, but it seems forced. Show us who you are. Give us a reason to like you.
-- Fallon's two best moves so far have been "Seventh Floor West" and having Drew Barrymore as a guest. Drew knows him well enough to bring out his personality. I'm sure there is one in there somewhere.
-- Jimmy Kimmel is stuck in time-slot purgatory. Here he doesn't come on until 11:30, so his monologue has to go head-to-head against Ferguson. No contest. In most of the country he comes on at the top of the hour, after Nightline. For starters, with Nightline as a lead-in he's not going to get too terrible much audience. Plus, most folks have settled into Conan or Letterman by then.
-- Hulu has introduced me to Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert. Being on cable gives them liberties -- both with language and more importantly with content -- that network guys just don't have.
My own personal Top 5 Hosts:
1. Craig Ferguson
2. Jon Stewart (far and away the best interviewer)
3. Steven Colbert
4. Conan O'Brien
5. David Letterman
Top 3 Announcers:
1. Alan Kulter
2. Shadoe Stevens
3. Higgins
HNORABLE MENTION -- Don Pardo. His Jeopardy legacy notwithstanding, he showed the new guys how it's done week in and week out on SNL. Enjoy your retirement, Don.
Top 3 Bands/Bandleaders:
1. Max Weinberg & The Tonight Show Band
2. Cleto & the Cletones
3. The Roots
Top 5 Gimmicks:
1. Craig Ferguson's show intros
2. Triumph the Insult Comic Dog
3. The Word
4. Fun Facts
5. John Oliver on anything British
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Lipscomb is #11 in the country . . .
. . . when it comes to abusing pitchers.
In Lipscomb's 56 baseball games this year, the starting pitcher threw over 120 pitches seven times. In the A-Sun, only Campbell was more abusive of its starters (7 120+ pitch-count games out of 51 played).
In 2008, Lipscomb ranked 11th in the country in Pitcher Abuse Points, going over 120 pitches a mind-boggling 16 times and twice breaking the 130 mark. In the same category last year, USC-Upstate ranked 15th in the country, piling up 12 120-pitch starts.
In Lipscomb's 56 baseball games this year, the starting pitcher threw over 120 pitches seven times. In the A-Sun, only Campbell was more abusive of its starters (7 120+ pitch-count games out of 51 played).
In 2008, Lipscomb ranked 11th in the country in Pitcher Abuse Points, going over 120 pitches a mind-boggling 16 times and twice breaking the 130 mark. In the same category last year, USC-Upstate ranked 15th in the country, piling up 12 120-pitch starts.
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