The Stolen Base and the Non-Standard Jeopardy Wager

Over on the Jeopardy message boards, a user raised an interesting point regarding Monday night's game. If a non-standard FJ wager from the lead increases a player's chances of winning, even slightly, why do leaders not play the gambit more often?

Seattle Mariners fans have been asking themselves that question for years.

Ichiro Suzuki may be the best hit-it-and-run-type baseball player we've seen since the demise of the Negro Leagues. In 8 1/2 years in the majors, he has averaged 230 hits and 110 runs every 162 games, with almost as many triples as HRs. He is also one of the game's best base stealers, landing safely over 80% of the time.

But for as often as he gets to first base, and as good as he is at stealing second, he almost never tries it. Ichiro has stood on first base over 2100 times, but has only tried to steal second just under 400 times.

Part of the equation is risk and reward. In baseball, moving up one base makes it easier for your teammates to bat you around, but to get that base you take a chance on being thrown out. The Baseball Prospectus people say that in today's offensive environment, to make base stealing worth the risk, a player has to be successful over 70% of the time. Thus, for most players, frequent base stealing is counterproductive.

Most players, however, are not Ichiro.

Another consideration is game situation. Ichiro is more likely to run in the late innings of close games, or when he has a chance to give his team a quick, early lead. In the middle of games, or late in blowouts, he's probably not going.

That said, even when the game is on the line, the odds are about 3.6 to 1 against seeing Ichiro take off.

I suspect there might be a connection between why Ichiro doesn't run any more than he does and why even the most wagering-savvy players don't use gambits more often. Like the stolen base, the non-standard wager is most effective when it is deployed selectively. Even in situations where a non-standard wager optimizes one's chances of winning a particular match, there is a case to be made for a "mixed strategy," as even the best-laid formulae of mice and men can succomb to dumb luck. Plus, the decision to use a non-standard wager can also be influenced by a "read" -- either of the FJ category or the behavior of the other player(s). Some people are better than others at diving another person's intentions by their body language, just as some base runners are better than others at "reading" the pitcher.

For the record, I agree that non-standard wagers should be made more often than they are. I also think Ichiro should run more. But if you're a Jeopardy hopeful, and you want to make non-standard wagering part of your tool-kit on game day, make absolutely sure you know what you're doing, because there is a significant risk to it.

After all, they don't call it "Jeopardy" for nothing.