Atlantic Sun Men's Recap

In other fora, I have commented about what I though would happen this year. Here's how it turned out:

First the misses: Campbell, ETSU, and Jacksonville.

In January, I pegged Campbell as the fourth-best team, a likely conference semifinalst and a tough out. I didn't think they could sustain their pace for 3 days, but their style is tough to defend. 1.05 points per possession was the best in the league during pre-conference. I guessed they would go 11-7, giving them a look at a top-3 seed. I missed their conference record by 3 games and their seed line by 2.

ETSU played a really tough schedule out of conference, including a pasting at Vanderbilt. Their schedule made them look worse than they actually were. My guess on them was 12-6, second place. Swap the 6 and the 2 and make them regular season champs. Imagine -- in a guard oriented league that shoots 3's with no conscience at all, the team with the best defense would win. Who knew?

Jacksonville looked breathtakingly average in November and December. They played an average pace, shot average free throws, and were slightly below-average defensively. I guessed they would go 8-10 and bow out of the tourney on the first day. Try 11-7 and a 3-seed. They did lose day 1, but that was to that dangerous Campbell team above. Coming off an abysmal 2006, that's remarkable.

A couple of bragging notes: I picked Belmont as conference champs and guessed their record within 1 game. Not that that is too surprising, but I like to be right. I guessed Lipscomb's record within half a game (I couldn't decide between 11 and 12 wins, so I gave them 11 1/2). I also pegged Mercer as a dangerous 5-seed.

The conference awards were severely jacked up. Jonathan Rodriguez of Campbell was far and away the best player this year, but his team finished 6th. In this league, defense and rebounding are very important and significantly undervalued by voters. If I had a ballot, my first-team would be Rodriguez (F-CAM), Shadeen Aaron (G-MERC), Courtney Pigram (G-ETSU), Jesse Kimbrough (G-JAX), and Calvin Henry (F-MERC). I know, I know, I've got 3 guards on there, but this is a guard league. Second team would be Brad Knuckles (F-ETSU), Shawn Stegall (F-KENN), Ronnell Wooton (G-KENN), Eddie Ard (G-LIP), and Boomer Herndon (C-BELM).

Sorry kids, but James Florence (G-MERC) was not first-team-all-conference good. Good, but not that good. He scored a lot, but he shot a lot too. And his defense could use some work. Fortunately he's a freshman and isn't going anywhere for a while, so he has a good chance to get better.

You'll notice the lack of Belmont presence on this list. And that might be the secret of their success. They've got so many interchangeable parts that if each player does his job, everybody wins. They remind me a lot of the 1980 Olympic hockey team that way. That and they have no business on the same floor with the Big Boys.

Enjoy the off-season. I'll update other sports as events warrant.