In Defense of the National League

For the third time in four years and the seventh time in ten, the representative of the American League has won the World Series.

I'm stunned.

Consider this: Since the dismantling of the Big Red Machine 30 years ago, only three American League teams have gone to the World Series and failed to win at least 2 games -- the 2006 Tigers and Tony Larussa's A's in 1988 and 1990. The American League has been swept EXACTLY ONCE since 1977. By contrast, the National League has gone down 4-0 three times in the last four years, and five times in ten years.

Competitive disadvantage, much?

Maybe, but randomness implies clusters. If the teams really are even and the National League is just hitting a "bad patch," things should even out over the long term.

So let's look at the long term.

The last 30 World Series have gone for the AL team 17 times and the NL 13. Pretty even, unless you consider that the NL won 4 in a row between 1978 and 1981. The AL leads the NL 16-9 in 25 Series.

What's more, in the last 10 years, the NL has won 16 World Series games, and 12 of those wins came in Series they won. The AL has won 38, a .704 winning percentage. In the last 25 Series, the AL is 82-52. 61.2% of World Series games in the last 25 years have been won by the team that used a Designated Hitter all year.

If you take any two teams and give one team a 61.2% chance of winning any one game, that team will win a best-of-seven series 73.3% of the time.

So in spite of their dominance, the American League has actually UNDER-performed in terms of winning championships since 1983. Statistically, they should have two more (and in 1997 and 2001, the AL team took a 1-run lead into the 9th inning of Game 7 and lost).

But all that said, this is a great time to be a National League fan. 9 different pennant winners in 10 years. 12 of the league's 16 teams have been to the playoffs since 2003, and Milwaukee got close this year. Fully half the league finished with 5 games of a play-off spot this year, a fairly routine occurance in the lower-offense NL. Not so routine -- with four days to go in the season, not only were there 8 teams still alive, but ALL FOUR spots were still up for grabs. Wild card or no wild card, that's a great race.

Then there's the AL. Yawn. The last time the AL played any meaningful baseball in September was 2000. The last one-game play-off in the AL was in 1978. The NL has seen six since. Almost half the league (6 of 14) has gone at least 5 years since their last post-season appearance, and for 4 of those 6, the drought is a decade or more. Plus, the average American League team plays 10 fewer 1-run games per year than the average NL team, resulting both in more blow-outs AND in longer games.

That said, scoreboard. The AL is killing the NL when they play head-to-head, finishing 18 games over .500 in interleague play this year, which is better than the 50+ games the AL had on the NL last year. Clearly, rosters that include a DH for 162 games are better than rosters built around the relaity that pitchers have to hit.

So what to do?

With no DH, the baseball is better, with closer games and tighter pennant races, both of which make for great TV. The balance between the leagues is restored. Big-time sluggers have to play defense. Plus (and this is no small consideration), shorter games fit better into TV schedules.

Maybe then baseball would be worth staying up for.