I try to make it a point not to blog unless I have, you know, something to say. Apparently, that is not exactly standard procedure for the Internet, where having a reason to write is not a limiting factor in what ends up on the screen.
So here I am.
Just to warn you, I won't be doing this often. If there is a new post here, or at the book site over on Wordpress, it will be because something has my attention and interest.
In the news today, nothing happened. The Supreme Court wrapped up its session by striking down a ridiculous handguun ban (and implicitly endorsing Texas' Castle Doctrine), Germany advanced to the finals of Euro 2008, and somehwere it rained.
Since I last posted, a couple of Fight Club veterans won money on The Show. Dave is a likely TOC candidate, but Sven hit a rough patch on Day 2 and was out.
In the latest batch of polling, Barack Obama leads John McCain 47.9% to 42.8%, good for around 315 Electoral Votes, give or take.
My new favorite song is "Shattered." It's off an album by Laura, a contestant on Belgian Idol. Aaron Sain -- children's minister at Tusculum -- was one of the writers. I think there might be a book in it. We'll see.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Friday, June 13, 2008
Are You Smarter Than My Five-Year-Old?
Quoth Erica, upon finding a barette on the floor at church Sunday night:
"It's a pink barette, so it must belong to a girl."
Because boys only wear blue ones?
"It's a pink barette, so it must belong to a girl."
Because boys only wear blue ones?
Thursday, June 12, 2008
My Take, For What It's Worth, On the Presidential Race
Warning -- This post is complete amateur hour. I have absolutely no credentials to be making these statements other than having read a lot. Take with as much salt as you need.
So the race for the White House is on, and the two parties have finally decided which horses to back. At this point, Barack Obama is, if you'll pardon the pun, a "Big Brown at the Belmont" favorite. Right now, it looks like the only way he can lose if he comes up gimpy in the final turn.
But here's the kicker. A Presidential election is not a horse race. It's 56 little horse-races all run on the same day. (Why 56? 50 states, plus DC, plus the five congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine who award electoral votes separately from the state-wide winner.)
So, John McCain doesn't have to win all 56 races to be President. He doesnt even have to win most. He just has to win the right ones.
Let's start with the ones that are already over. Based on past elections, one can safely say that Obama will carry Illinois, Maryland, Vermont, Hawaii, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusettes, and the District of Columbia, for a total of 88 electoral votes. McCain can likewise count on Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, most of Nebraska, Alaska, North Dakota, and Oklahoma, for a total of 39. Obama might be able to carry the city of Omaha, which would turn Nebraska purple, but it's nowhere near certain.
That leaves 411 electoral votes in play, provided Obama picks Kansas governor Kathleen Sebilius for his running mate. If he doesn't give Kansas to McCain, making the score 88-45 with 405 outstanding.
I did an analysis of how states tend to behave compared to the national popular vote in the last 7 presidential elections. The states listed above are historically at least 10 points more Democratic or 20 points more Republican than the national average. My current home state of Kentucky projects to favor the Republican by just over 10 points this year, meaning if Obama wins the popular vote by 7 points, McCain wins Kentucky by 3.
For the record, these states are 10 to 20 points inside the Republican camp: Alabama, Texas, Indiana, South Dakota, Mississippi, South Carolina, Montana, Kentucky, and North Carolina. If McCain wins all of these states (which I think he will), that's another 133 electoral votes, plus the one I think he'll get in Omaha. Likewise, if Obama sweeps the "likely Democratic" category, he picks up New Jersey, Maine, Washington, Delaware, Minnesota, California, and Connecticut, for total of 105. Now our Electoral Scoreboard sits at 193-178 in favor of Obama, with 167 still to be had.
Of the remaining states, Georgia, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and Tennessee have favored Republicans by a wider margin than Obama has over McCain in the nationwide polling average at realclearpolitics.com. As long as Obama's lead doesn't get over 6 points, McCain will probably carry those states. Of course, unless Obama chokes on a pretzel or something, McCain can probably write off Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Those five states all favor Democtaric candidates by 2 to 3 points, meaning McCain would need to lead the nationwide voting by a few points to have a realistic look at picking them up.
That brings our total to Obama 255, McCain 196.
This is starting to look like the Florida recount, isn't it? Every time we stop to count, one guy is ahead, and here we are trying to figure out how the other guy can not just close the gap, but pull ahead.
McCain needs to carry all but 15 of the outstanding Electoral votes. They are in Florida (27), Louisiana (9), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (20), Missouri (11), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5), and New Mexico (5).
For McCain, a running mate from one of these states will help. Bobby Jindal (governor of Louisiana), or, if you're feeling brave, Tim Pawlenty (governor of Minnesota) anyone? If his strategy is to eat away at Obama's overall lead, a female running mate would go a long way toward reminding women of what happened to Hillary Clinton in the primaries. It would especially help if she comes from a state that's in play. Christie Todd Whitman (former governor of New Jersey), perhaps?
Of course, Obama could put the whole thing to bed with a solid VP choice of his own. If he goes with Bill Richardson of New Mexico, that will deliver his state and probably tip Florida into the Obama column. Likewise, if Obama taps Jennifer Granholm (term-limited governor of Michigan), that's probably the ballgame as it neutralizes a lot of the damage from the primary season. Ted Strickland of Ohio also makes a lot of Electoral College sense.
By the way, I'm convinced that the next Vice President is a governor (or former governor) right now. Two U. S. Senators haven't teamed up to win an election since JFK & LBJ, and I don't see the pattern changing.
So, for John McCain to win, he has to get is VP choice right, hope Obama misses on his, and focus the fight on battles he can win. He also needs to campaign hard "down-ticket," rebuilding the Republican brand.
McCain also needs to be aware of Obama's strategy and find a way to beat it. Obama won the nomination by out-Clinton-ing Hillary Clinton. He took her distinctives (historic demographics, wonkishness, large-crowd rallies, dressing for a corporate boardroom, and fundraising and infrastructure advantages) and made them his own. McCain's strength is in retail politics, connecting with the Everyman. Watch for more pictures of Obama playing basketball, smoking, losing the tie, and playing with his kids. He already out-Clinton-ed Clinton. Now he's going to try to out-McCain McCain.
McCain also has to overcome history. So far, only six U. S. Presidents have served 8 years, then lived to turned the keys over to a successor of the same party. Those six -- Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Jackson, Grant, and Reagan. Clinton, Eisenhower, Monroe, and Wilson all tried and failed. And interestingly, of the successful 6, only two were succeeded by a two-term President (Jefferson and Madison).
My guess right now is that Obama wins with 342 Electoral Votes. But we shall see come November.
So the race for the White House is on, and the two parties have finally decided which horses to back. At this point, Barack Obama is, if you'll pardon the pun, a "Big Brown at the Belmont" favorite. Right now, it looks like the only way he can lose if he comes up gimpy in the final turn.
But here's the kicker. A Presidential election is not a horse race. It's 56 little horse-races all run on the same day. (Why 56? 50 states, plus DC, plus the five congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine who award electoral votes separately from the state-wide winner.)
So, John McCain doesn't have to win all 56 races to be President. He doesnt even have to win most. He just has to win the right ones.
Let's start with the ones that are already over. Based on past elections, one can safely say that Obama will carry Illinois, Maryland, Vermont, Hawaii, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusettes, and the District of Columbia, for a total of 88 electoral votes. McCain can likewise count on Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, most of Nebraska, Alaska, North Dakota, and Oklahoma, for a total of 39. Obama might be able to carry the city of Omaha, which would turn Nebraska purple, but it's nowhere near certain.
That leaves 411 electoral votes in play, provided Obama picks Kansas governor Kathleen Sebilius for his running mate. If he doesn't give Kansas to McCain, making the score 88-45 with 405 outstanding.
I did an analysis of how states tend to behave compared to the national popular vote in the last 7 presidential elections. The states listed above are historically at least 10 points more Democratic or 20 points more Republican than the national average. My current home state of Kentucky projects to favor the Republican by just over 10 points this year, meaning if Obama wins the popular vote by 7 points, McCain wins Kentucky by 3.
For the record, these states are 10 to 20 points inside the Republican camp: Alabama, Texas, Indiana, South Dakota, Mississippi, South Carolina, Montana, Kentucky, and North Carolina. If McCain wins all of these states (which I think he will), that's another 133 electoral votes, plus the one I think he'll get in Omaha. Likewise, if Obama sweeps the "likely Democratic" category, he picks up New Jersey, Maine, Washington, Delaware, Minnesota, California, and Connecticut, for total of 105. Now our Electoral Scoreboard sits at 193-178 in favor of Obama, with 167 still to be had.
Of the remaining states, Georgia, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and Tennessee have favored Republicans by a wider margin than Obama has over McCain in the nationwide polling average at realclearpolitics.com. As long as Obama's lead doesn't get over 6 points, McCain will probably carry those states. Of course, unless Obama chokes on a pretzel or something, McCain can probably write off Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Those five states all favor Democtaric candidates by 2 to 3 points, meaning McCain would need to lead the nationwide voting by a few points to have a realistic look at picking them up.
That brings our total to Obama 255, McCain 196.
This is starting to look like the Florida recount, isn't it? Every time we stop to count, one guy is ahead, and here we are trying to figure out how the other guy can not just close the gap, but pull ahead.
McCain needs to carry all but 15 of the outstanding Electoral votes. They are in Florida (27), Louisiana (9), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (20), Missouri (11), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5), and New Mexico (5).
For McCain, a running mate from one of these states will help. Bobby Jindal (governor of Louisiana), or, if you're feeling brave, Tim Pawlenty (governor of Minnesota) anyone? If his strategy is to eat away at Obama's overall lead, a female running mate would go a long way toward reminding women of what happened to Hillary Clinton in the primaries. It would especially help if she comes from a state that's in play. Christie Todd Whitman (former governor of New Jersey), perhaps?
Of course, Obama could put the whole thing to bed with a solid VP choice of his own. If he goes with Bill Richardson of New Mexico, that will deliver his state and probably tip Florida into the Obama column. Likewise, if Obama taps Jennifer Granholm (term-limited governor of Michigan), that's probably the ballgame as it neutralizes a lot of the damage from the primary season. Ted Strickland of Ohio also makes a lot of Electoral College sense.
By the way, I'm convinced that the next Vice President is a governor (or former governor) right now. Two U. S. Senators haven't teamed up to win an election since JFK & LBJ, and I don't see the pattern changing.
So, for John McCain to win, he has to get is VP choice right, hope Obama misses on his, and focus the fight on battles he can win. He also needs to campaign hard "down-ticket," rebuilding the Republican brand.
McCain also needs to be aware of Obama's strategy and find a way to beat it. Obama won the nomination by out-Clinton-ing Hillary Clinton. He took her distinctives (historic demographics, wonkishness, large-crowd rallies, dressing for a corporate boardroom, and fundraising and infrastructure advantages) and made them his own. McCain's strength is in retail politics, connecting with the Everyman. Watch for more pictures of Obama playing basketball, smoking, losing the tie, and playing with his kids. He already out-Clinton-ed Clinton. Now he's going to try to out-McCain McCain.
McCain also has to overcome history. So far, only six U. S. Presidents have served 8 years, then lived to turned the keys over to a successor of the same party. Those six -- Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Jackson, Grant, and Reagan. Clinton, Eisenhower, Monroe, and Wilson all tried and failed. And interestingly, of the successful 6, only two were succeeded by a two-term President (Jefferson and Madison).
My guess right now is that Obama wins with 342 Electoral Votes. But we shall see come November.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Book Update
The new book blog is up and running.
Thank you to the Claytons and everybody at Weather's Drugs for your wonderful hospitality at the book signing last week. If I can figure out how to post pictures, I will.
Thank you to the Claytons and everybody at Weather's Drugs for your wonderful hospitality at the book signing last week. If I can figure out how to post pictures, I will.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Thoughts on Jefferson Davis' 200th Birthday
Todd County has a lot to be proud of.
From its award-winning schools, beautiful scenery, friendly and welcoming people, and even an award-winning weekly newspaper, this is a wonderful place to live. During my time here, I have experienced good weather, better neighbors, and the best of pleasant country life.
Todd County even has a place in history. In 1905, U. S. Poet Laureate Robert Penn Warren was born in Guthrie. A museum, a WKU Center for Robert Penn Warren Studies, and even a commemorative postage stamp honor his contributions to the literary arts. What’s more, Todd County has produced two major league baseball players, Hugh Poland and Kent Greenfield. Greenfield won 41 games for the New York Giants and Boston Braves in the 1920’s. Poland spent parts of five seasons as a major league catcher.
Todd County certainly has a lot to be proud of. And then there’s Jefferson Davis.
“Jeff,” as he is known to some locals, was born in Fairview. He did not live there long, moving to Mississippi at age two and not returning for almost eighty years (and then only for a weekend). Yet somehow, he is a celebrated figure in the history of Todd County.
Make no mistake. Like any human life, there are many facets to the Jefferson Davis story. He was a war hero. (Of course, so was Benedict Arnold, but we musn’t let one event cloud the rest of the story overmuch, right?) He was politically well-connected, serving as both a Congressman and Senator from Mississippi. He was Zachary Taylor’s son-in-law and Franklin Pierce’s Secretary of War. He was even the first to publicly suggest the building of a transcontinental railroad.
But we must not – in good conscience, we cannot – overlook the fact that Jefferson Davis led the most dangerous insurrection ever mounted against the United States of America. When threatened with the prospect of African slaves living side-by-side in free society with Caucasians, Davis took thirteen states to war to prevent it. And in case one might suspect other motives (states rights, etc.), consider Davis’ own words:
“Everything around . . . [speaks] eloquently of the wisdom of the men who founded these colonies – their descendants . . . contrasted strongly, as did their history and present power, stand out in bold relief, when compared with those of the inhabitants of Central and Southern America.
Chief among the reasons for this . . . the self-reliant hardihood of their forefathers who, when but a handful, found themselves confronted by hordes of savages, yet proudly maintained the integrity of their race and asserted its supremacy over the descendants of Shem, in whose tents they had come to dwell. They preferred to encounter toil, privation and carnage, rather than debase their lineage and race. Their descendants of that pure and heroic blood have advanced to the high standard of civilization attainable by that type of mankind. Stability and progress, wealth and comfort, art and science, have followed their footsteps.
Among our neighbors of Central and Southern America, we see the Caucasian mingled with the Indian and the African. They have the forms of free government, because they have copied them. To its benefits they have not attained, because that standard of civilization is above their race. Revolution succeeds Revolution, and the country mourns that some petty chief may triumph, and through a sixty days' government ape the rulers of the earth. Even now the nearest and strongest of these American Republics, which were fashioned after the model of our own, seems to be tottering to a fall, and the world is inquiring as to who will take possession; or, as protector, raise and lead a people who have shown themselves incompetent to govern themselves.” – Jefferson Davis, addressing the Democratic Convention at Portland, Maine (August 24, 1858) [Emphasis Added]
For Davis, the primary issue in the Civil War was not states’ rights, personal property, culture, or even the propagation of slavery. Davis was fighting for racial purity.
And Todd County wants to honor this? Our award-winning newspaper wants to celebrate the 200th birthday of a traitorous bigot? I mean, it’s one thing to build a park and an obelisk that not-so-subtly reminds one of the Washington Monument, but that was over 90 years ago, and what’s done is done. But by continuing to celebrate this man, we tacitly endorse his legacy and ideals.
To me, the truly sad part of this story is that for some reason, people in Todd County feel the need to honor Davis, as though if we don’t celebrate him, we don’t have anything else to be proud of. That notion I will challenge loudly. By most standards, I haven’t lived here long – just over three years. But I’ve been here long enough to know that this is a wonderful place, one that anyone of any skin color, any national heritage, or any religion can be justifiably proud to call home.
Todd County has a lot to be proud of. We don’t need Jefferson Davis to validate our place in history. We’re better than this.
From its award-winning schools, beautiful scenery, friendly and welcoming people, and even an award-winning weekly newspaper, this is a wonderful place to live. During my time here, I have experienced good weather, better neighbors, and the best of pleasant country life.
Todd County even has a place in history. In 1905, U. S. Poet Laureate Robert Penn Warren was born in Guthrie. A museum, a WKU Center for Robert Penn Warren Studies, and even a commemorative postage stamp honor his contributions to the literary arts. What’s more, Todd County has produced two major league baseball players, Hugh Poland and Kent Greenfield. Greenfield won 41 games for the New York Giants and Boston Braves in the 1920’s. Poland spent parts of five seasons as a major league catcher.
Todd County certainly has a lot to be proud of. And then there’s Jefferson Davis.
“Jeff,” as he is known to some locals, was born in Fairview. He did not live there long, moving to Mississippi at age two and not returning for almost eighty years (and then only for a weekend). Yet somehow, he is a celebrated figure in the history of Todd County.
Make no mistake. Like any human life, there are many facets to the Jefferson Davis story. He was a war hero. (Of course, so was Benedict Arnold, but we musn’t let one event cloud the rest of the story overmuch, right?) He was politically well-connected, serving as both a Congressman and Senator from Mississippi. He was Zachary Taylor’s son-in-law and Franklin Pierce’s Secretary of War. He was even the first to publicly suggest the building of a transcontinental railroad.
But we must not – in good conscience, we cannot – overlook the fact that Jefferson Davis led the most dangerous insurrection ever mounted against the United States of America. When threatened with the prospect of African slaves living side-by-side in free society with Caucasians, Davis took thirteen states to war to prevent it. And in case one might suspect other motives (states rights, etc.), consider Davis’ own words:
“Everything around . . . [speaks] eloquently of the wisdom of the men who founded these colonies – their descendants . . . contrasted strongly, as did their history and present power, stand out in bold relief, when compared with those of the inhabitants of Central and Southern America.
Chief among the reasons for this . . . the self-reliant hardihood of their forefathers who, when but a handful, found themselves confronted by hordes of savages, yet proudly maintained the integrity of their race and asserted its supremacy over the descendants of Shem, in whose tents they had come to dwell. They preferred to encounter toil, privation and carnage, rather than debase their lineage and race. Their descendants of that pure and heroic blood have advanced to the high standard of civilization attainable by that type of mankind. Stability and progress, wealth and comfort, art and science, have followed their footsteps.
Among our neighbors of Central and Southern America, we see the Caucasian mingled with the Indian and the African. They have the forms of free government, because they have copied them. To its benefits they have not attained, because that standard of civilization is above their race. Revolution succeeds Revolution, and the country mourns that some petty chief may triumph, and through a sixty days' government ape the rulers of the earth. Even now the nearest and strongest of these American Republics, which were fashioned after the model of our own, seems to be tottering to a fall, and the world is inquiring as to who will take possession; or, as protector, raise and lead a people who have shown themselves incompetent to govern themselves.” – Jefferson Davis, addressing the Democratic Convention at Portland, Maine (August 24, 1858) [Emphasis Added]
For Davis, the primary issue in the Civil War was not states’ rights, personal property, culture, or even the propagation of slavery. Davis was fighting for racial purity.
And Todd County wants to honor this? Our award-winning newspaper wants to celebrate the 200th birthday of a traitorous bigot? I mean, it’s one thing to build a park and an obelisk that not-so-subtly reminds one of the Washington Monument, but that was over 90 years ago, and what’s done is done. But by continuing to celebrate this man, we tacitly endorse his legacy and ideals.
To me, the truly sad part of this story is that for some reason, people in Todd County feel the need to honor Davis, as though if we don’t celebrate him, we don’t have anything else to be proud of. That notion I will challenge loudly. By most standards, I haven’t lived here long – just over three years. But I’ve been here long enough to know that this is a wonderful place, one that anyone of any skin color, any national heritage, or any religion can be justifiably proud to call home.
Todd County has a lot to be proud of. We don’t need Jefferson Davis to validate our place in history. We’re better than this.
Monday, June 2, 2008
Well, That Was Fun
After beating Georgia on Friday, Lipscomb played Georgia Tech even for 7 innings Saturday night before finally falling 6-3. In the re-match Sunday afternoon, Georgia had its way with the Bisons, 14-3. All in all, a good weekend, better than anyone dared hope for.
On another note, I had my first book signing today. Major thank-yous to the Claytons, who own and operate Weather's Drugs in Elkton. They were wonderful hosts. Total book sales are now at 15, with a possibility for more come camp time in two weeks.
Look for my book blog at benwiles.wordpress.com as soon as I can get the confirmation bugs worked out.
On another note, I had my first book signing today. Major thank-yous to the Claytons, who own and operate Weather's Drugs in Elkton. They were wonderful hosts. Total book sales are now at 15, with a possibility for more come camp time in two weeks.
Look for my book blog at benwiles.wordpress.com as soon as I can get the confirmation bugs worked out.
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