My Take, For What It's Worth, On the Presidential Race

Warning -- This post is complete amateur hour. I have absolutely no credentials to be making these statements other than having read a lot. Take with as much salt as you need.

So the race for the White House is on, and the two parties have finally decided which horses to back. At this point, Barack Obama is, if you'll pardon the pun, a "Big Brown at the Belmont" favorite. Right now, it looks like the only way he can lose if he comes up gimpy in the final turn.

But here's the kicker. A Presidential election is not a horse race. It's 56 little horse-races all run on the same day. (Why 56? 50 states, plus DC, plus the five congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine who award electoral votes separately from the state-wide winner.)

So, John McCain doesn't have to win all 56 races to be President. He doesnt even have to win most. He just has to win the right ones.

Let's start with the ones that are already over. Based on past elections, one can safely say that Obama will carry Illinois, Maryland, Vermont, Hawaii, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusettes, and the District of Columbia, for a total of 88 electoral votes. McCain can likewise count on Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, most of Nebraska, Alaska, North Dakota, and Oklahoma, for a total of 39. Obama might be able to carry the city of Omaha, which would turn Nebraska purple, but it's nowhere near certain.

That leaves 411 electoral votes in play, provided Obama picks Kansas governor Kathleen Sebilius for his running mate. If he doesn't give Kansas to McCain, making the score 88-45 with 405 outstanding.

I did an analysis of how states tend to behave compared to the national popular vote in the last 7 presidential elections. The states listed above are historically at least 10 points more Democratic or 20 points more Republican than the national average. My current home state of Kentucky projects to favor the Republican by just over 10 points this year, meaning if Obama wins the popular vote by 7 points, McCain wins Kentucky by 3.

For the record, these states are 10 to 20 points inside the Republican camp: Alabama, Texas, Indiana, South Dakota, Mississippi, South Carolina, Montana, Kentucky, and North Carolina. If McCain wins all of these states (which I think he will), that's another 133 electoral votes, plus the one I think he'll get in Omaha. Likewise, if Obama sweeps the "likely Democratic" category, he picks up New Jersey, Maine, Washington, Delaware, Minnesota, California, and Connecticut, for total of 105. Now our Electoral Scoreboard sits at 193-178 in favor of Obama, with 167 still to be had.

Of the remaining states, Georgia, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and Tennessee have favored Republicans by a wider margin than Obama has over McCain in the nationwide polling average at realclearpolitics.com. As long as Obama's lead doesn't get over 6 points, McCain will probably carry those states. Of course, unless Obama chokes on a pretzel or something, McCain can probably write off Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Those five states all favor Democtaric candidates by 2 to 3 points, meaning McCain would need to lead the nationwide voting by a few points to have a realistic look at picking them up.

That brings our total to Obama 255, McCain 196.

This is starting to look like the Florida recount, isn't it? Every time we stop to count, one guy is ahead, and here we are trying to figure out how the other guy can not just close the gap, but pull ahead.

McCain needs to carry all but 15 of the outstanding Electoral votes. They are in Florida (27), Louisiana (9), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (20), Missouri (11), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5), and New Mexico (5).

For McCain, a running mate from one of these states will help. Bobby Jindal (governor of Louisiana), or, if you're feeling brave, Tim Pawlenty (governor of Minnesota) anyone? If his strategy is to eat away at Obama's overall lead, a female running mate would go a long way toward reminding women of what happened to Hillary Clinton in the primaries. It would especially help if she comes from a state that's in play. Christie Todd Whitman (former governor of New Jersey), perhaps?

Of course, Obama could put the whole thing to bed with a solid VP choice of his own. If he goes with Bill Richardson of New Mexico, that will deliver his state and probably tip Florida into the Obama column. Likewise, if Obama taps Jennifer Granholm (term-limited governor of Michigan), that's probably the ballgame as it neutralizes a lot of the damage from the primary season. Ted Strickland of Ohio also makes a lot of Electoral College sense.

By the way, I'm convinced that the next Vice President is a governor (or former governor) right now. Two U. S. Senators haven't teamed up to win an election since JFK & LBJ, and I don't see the pattern changing.

So, for John McCain to win, he has to get is VP choice right, hope Obama misses on his, and focus the fight on battles he can win. He also needs to campaign hard "down-ticket," rebuilding the Republican brand.

McCain also needs to be aware of Obama's strategy and find a way to beat it. Obama won the nomination by out-Clinton-ing Hillary Clinton. He took her distinctives (historic demographics, wonkishness, large-crowd rallies, dressing for a corporate boardroom, and fundraising and infrastructure advantages) and made them his own. McCain's strength is in retail politics, connecting with the Everyman. Watch for more pictures of Obama playing basketball, smoking, losing the tie, and playing with his kids. He already out-Clinton-ed Clinton. Now he's going to try to out-McCain McCain.

McCain also has to overcome history. So far, only six U. S. Presidents have served 8 years, then lived to turned the keys over to a successor of the same party. Those six -- Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Jackson, Grant, and Reagan. Clinton, Eisenhower, Monroe, and Wilson all tried and failed. And interestingly, of the successful 6, only two were succeeded by a two-term President (Jefferson and Madison).

My guess right now is that Obama wins with 342 Electoral Votes. But we shall see come November.