Stop me if you've heard this before.
Campbell's Jonathan Rodriguez posted the individual performance of the season so far in a 97-92 loss to VMI last night. Rodriguez posted 23 points and 14 rebounds en route to the A-Sun's first PEG score of 30 so far this year. VMI, as they did against Kentucky last week, raced out to a big first-half lead, then ran out of gas as Campbell crept closer. The lead was down to one with under a minute left, but the Keydets hit their free throws late to put the game away. Credit the Camels for playing a disciplined game, launching only 11 3-point attempts in an 82-possession game. Of course, 23 turnovers are more than you would want to see, even in a game as frenetic as this one was.
Tonight, Belmont visits Pittsburgh.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Monday, November 24, 2008
Two Near-Misses
I guess three in a row is too much to ask.
Stetson had a look at its first major upset this weekend, while Mercer had #3 in its sights. Both teams had a shot at the buzzer, but both came up empty.
Apparently, somebody at Stetson is none to happy about the officiating of their game with Florida State. I'm not going to criticize a crew unless I watch the game (and even then, probably not), but the numbers are what they are. Stetson had 13 free throw attempts in the game. Florida State had 13 in the second half, after 21 in the first.
That said, the Hatters came from 16 down at halftime, making 61% of their 2's and 53% of their 3's in the second half, outscoring FSU by 20 over an 8-minute stretch. Stetson led by 7 with less than 9 minutes left, but then hit a dry spell, going 1 of 8 from the floor during a 6-minute, 16-3 Seminole run.
Stetson had a shot to tie late, pulling down a rebound with 9 seconds left down 2. But A.J. Smith's drive drew contact but no whistle and the clock ran out. Garfield Blair was the player of the night for Stetson, putting up 19 points and 7 boards.
Mercer also had a good look at an ACC upset this weekend, but fell to Georgia Tech in overtime. The current leaders of the RPI had a shot at the buzzer to win in regulation, but James Florence's jumper was tipped. Tech then jumped out to a quick 6-point lead in overtime and never looked back. E. J. Kuysner had a big night, burying 6 3-pointers on his way to 22 points and a PEG score of 18. Calvin Henry and James Florence each posted a PEG of 17, albeit in drastically different ways. Florence was his usual self, scoring 26 points on 24 shots and handing out 6 assists while committing 7 turnovers. Henry was quieter, but no less effective, posting 8 points and 8 boards on 3-3 shooting.
Stetson had a look at its first major upset this weekend, while Mercer had #3 in its sights. Both teams had a shot at the buzzer, but both came up empty.
Apparently, somebody at Stetson is none to happy about the officiating of their game with Florida State. I'm not going to criticize a crew unless I watch the game (and even then, probably not), but the numbers are what they are. Stetson had 13 free throw attempts in the game. Florida State had 13 in the second half, after 21 in the first.
That said, the Hatters came from 16 down at halftime, making 61% of their 2's and 53% of their 3's in the second half, outscoring FSU by 20 over an 8-minute stretch. Stetson led by 7 with less than 9 minutes left, but then hit a dry spell, going 1 of 8 from the floor during a 6-minute, 16-3 Seminole run.
Stetson had a shot to tie late, pulling down a rebound with 9 seconds left down 2. But A.J. Smith's drive drew contact but no whistle and the clock ran out. Garfield Blair was the player of the night for Stetson, putting up 19 points and 7 boards.
Mercer also had a good look at an ACC upset this weekend, but fell to Georgia Tech in overtime. The current leaders of the RPI had a shot at the buzzer to win in regulation, but James Florence's jumper was tipped. Tech then jumped out to a quick 6-point lead in overtime and never looked back. E. J. Kuysner had a big night, burying 6 3-pointers on his way to 22 points and a PEG score of 18. Calvin Henry and James Florence each posted a PEG of 17, albeit in drastically different ways. Florence was his usual self, scoring 26 points on 24 shots and handing out 6 assists while committing 7 turnovers. Henry was quieter, but no less effective, posting 8 points and 8 boards on 3-3 shooting.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Two! Two Transylvania! Ah, Ah, Ah . . .
Mercer just might win the SEC West this year.
Dominating Auburn on the offensive glass, the Mercer Bears pulled off their second straight road win against an SEC opponent, topping the Tigers 78-74. I've often said that in a guard-oriented conference, the team that controls the backboards controls the game. Stat of the night: Mercer missed 29 shots, but pulled down 14 (!!!) offensive rebounds. On Auburn misses, Mercer controlled the boards by a 32-6 margin.
Daniel Emerson was huge once again, adding 12 rebounds and 4 assists to his 12 points, for a PEG of 18 in 40 minutes of action. James Florence scored 25 points on 7-19 shooting and 7-10 free throws. As a team, Mercer shot 76% from the FT line for the night, compared to Auburn's 57%.
If Coach Bob Hoffman wants something to yell at his guys about, though, it's probably turnovers. Florence coughed the ball up 8 times, Emerson 4 more. 19 turnovers won't win you a lot of 70-possession games, even in the A-Sun.
Next up for Mercer: Georgia Tech on Saturday.
Dominating Auburn on the offensive glass, the Mercer Bears pulled off their second straight road win against an SEC opponent, topping the Tigers 78-74. I've often said that in a guard-oriented conference, the team that controls the backboards controls the game. Stat of the night: Mercer missed 29 shots, but pulled down 14 (!!!) offensive rebounds. On Auburn misses, Mercer controlled the boards by a 32-6 margin.
Daniel Emerson was huge once again, adding 12 rebounds and 4 assists to his 12 points, for a PEG of 18 in 40 minutes of action. James Florence scored 25 points on 7-19 shooting and 7-10 free throws. As a team, Mercer shot 76% from the FT line for the night, compared to Auburn's 57%.
If Coach Bob Hoffman wants something to yell at his guys about, though, it's probably turnovers. Florence coughed the ball up 8 times, Emerson 4 more. 19 turnovers won't win you a lot of 70-possession games, even in the A-Sun.
Next up for Mercer: Georgia Tech on Saturday.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Jeopardy Update
It's Kentucky week on Jeopardy!
Last night, Shelby Malone of Grayson and Jay Schraeder of Lexington played in the Teen Tournament semis. And Friday, a preacher from Todd County will be in the GSN re-run at 11 a.m. Will he have any better luck this time? Will he get that elusive Daily Double in Classical Music and parlay that into a stunning upset? Will he at least make his arrow point the right way in Final Jeopardy?
Find out Friday morning.
Last night, Shelby Malone of Grayson and Jay Schraeder of Lexington played in the Teen Tournament semis. And Friday, a preacher from Todd County will be in the GSN re-run at 11 a.m. Will he have any better luck this time? Will he get that elusive Daily Double in Classical Music and parlay that into a stunning upset? Will he at least make his arrow point the right way in Final Jeopardy?
Find out Friday morning.
Thumbnail Preview -- Stetson
Last Year: 16-16 overall, 11-5 in conference, good for third place. Lost to Gardner-Webb in the tournament quarterfinals.
Losses: Just one -- role player J. J. Hirst. Last year, Hirst was one of nine Hatters to average more than 12 minutes per game.
Key Returners: Everybody else. And I do mean everybody. Stetson will start two seniors (Garfield Blair and Tim Lang) and three juniors (A. J. Smith, Sheldon Oliver, and Mark Louhuis). They also have two seniors (Eric Diaz and Kris Thomas) and a junior (Brandon Williams) who saw significant minutes last year.
Show Me Numbers: If any team in the A-Sun wins with defense, it's Stetson. Last year they held conference opponents under 28% from 3-point range, led the league in field goal defense, and were second in scoring defense. That said, what Stetson does well on defense will have to make up for some significant weaknesses on the offensive end. Stetson was at the bottom of the tournament-eligible teams last year in Points per possession, PEP, and PEG. Yet despite a relatively poor showing on the offensive end, they still went 11-5 in conference.
Quick Analysis: The big question for Stetson is whether their offense or defense will be closer to "average" this year. Typically, having experienced players means two things. 1) You do better in close games. 2) You play better defense, and for longer stretches. If Stetson comes into this year in good physical condition and puts the same level of effort into defending the basketball as they did last year, I suspect the offense will come around somewhat.
Stat Projection: Offensively, Stetson projects to have a 0.89 PEP and 60.18 PEG, both near the bottom of the conference. But Stetson is all about defense, so we'll see.
Losses: Just one -- role player J. J. Hirst. Last year, Hirst was one of nine Hatters to average more than 12 minutes per game.
Key Returners: Everybody else. And I do mean everybody. Stetson will start two seniors (Garfield Blair and Tim Lang) and three juniors (A. J. Smith, Sheldon Oliver, and Mark Louhuis). They also have two seniors (Eric Diaz and Kris Thomas) and a junior (Brandon Williams) who saw significant minutes last year.
Show Me Numbers: If any team in the A-Sun wins with defense, it's Stetson. Last year they held conference opponents under 28% from 3-point range, led the league in field goal defense, and were second in scoring defense. That said, what Stetson does well on defense will have to make up for some significant weaknesses on the offensive end. Stetson was at the bottom of the tournament-eligible teams last year in Points per possession, PEP, and PEG. Yet despite a relatively poor showing on the offensive end, they still went 11-5 in conference.
Quick Analysis: The big question for Stetson is whether their offense or defense will be closer to "average" this year. Typically, having experienced players means two things. 1) You do better in close games. 2) You play better defense, and for longer stretches. If Stetson comes into this year in good physical condition and puts the same level of effort into defending the basketball as they did last year, I suspect the offense will come around somewhat.
Stat Projection: Offensively, Stetson projects to have a 0.89 PEP and 60.18 PEG, both near the bottom of the conference. But Stetson is all about defense, so we'll see.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
One! One Transylvania! Ah Ah Ah . . .
Welcome to the A-Sun, Daniel Emerson.
In the first big-time upset of the A-Sun season so far, Mercer went into Tuscaloosa and shocked SEC stalwart Alabama, 72-69. Emerson backed up his 16 point, 19 rebound (!!) performance against Piedmont with 18 points and 6 boards on 7 of 10 shooting to lead the Bears against the Crimson Tide. Emerson's PEG scores of 24 and 20 were tops in the conference for the weekend.
James Florence also came up big at the end, finding Calvin Henry underneath the basket for the go-ahead lay-up, then stealing the in-bounds pass and hitting 2 free throws to put Mercer up 3 with under 10 seconds to go. Henry posted a team-high PEG score of 23 against Alabama, pulling down 13 rebounds and blocking 5 shots to go with 9 points.
In other news, kudos to Jacksonville for taking on a couple of big dogs (Georgetown and Florida State) and giving them all they wanted. The Dolphins came from 17 down at the last media timeout against the Seminoles to get within two, but ran out of time before they could get the last shot off. Against the Hoyas, Jacksonville came from 12 down at halftime to get within four in the last 5 minutes before Georgetown pulled away late to win by 9.
Belmont fell to Austin Peay 86-84 last night. After rallying from 9 down at the 5-minute mark to tie, Belmont forward Henry Harris was whistled for a foul with 0.2 seconds left. APSU hit the free throws and that was that. ETSU also lost on a last-second foul,squandering a four-point lead in the final minutes to lose to Hofstra, 76-75. Hofstra hit two free throws with 1.1 seconds left to win.
In the first big-time upset of the A-Sun season so far, Mercer went into Tuscaloosa and shocked SEC stalwart Alabama, 72-69. Emerson backed up his 16 point, 19 rebound (!!) performance against Piedmont with 18 points and 6 boards on 7 of 10 shooting to lead the Bears against the Crimson Tide. Emerson's PEG scores of 24 and 20 were tops in the conference for the weekend.
James Florence also came up big at the end, finding Calvin Henry underneath the basket for the go-ahead lay-up, then stealing the in-bounds pass and hitting 2 free throws to put Mercer up 3 with under 10 seconds to go. Henry posted a team-high PEG score of 23 against Alabama, pulling down 13 rebounds and blocking 5 shots to go with 9 points.
In other news, kudos to Jacksonville for taking on a couple of big dogs (Georgetown and Florida State) and giving them all they wanted. The Dolphins came from 17 down at the last media timeout against the Seminoles to get within two, but ran out of time before they could get the last shot off. Against the Hoyas, Jacksonville came from 12 down at halftime to get within four in the last 5 minutes before Georgetown pulled away late to win by 9.
Belmont fell to Austin Peay 86-84 last night. After rallying from 9 down at the 5-minute mark to tie, Belmont forward Henry Harris was whistled for a foul with 0.2 seconds left. APSU hit the free throws and that was that. ETSU also lost on a last-second foul,squandering a four-point lead in the final minutes to lose to Hofstra, 76-75. Hofstra hit two free throws with 1.1 seconds left to win.
Friday, November 14, 2008
And Away They Go
The regular season gets underway this afternoon and tonight, with five games Friday plus a handful over the weekend. Big-name match-ups: ETSU vs. Temple, Upstate @ Georgia, Stetson @ Texas. Florida State goes to Jacksonville Saturday. Upstate is at Notre Dame Sunday, while Mercer goes to Alabama. Jacksonville gets another bite at the apple Monday night when they go to Georgetown.
On the women's side, Mercer travels to Texas A&M tonight, and FGCU is at Florida State Sunday. The big night is Monday, with Jacksonville visiting Florida and Kennesaw State going to North Carolina.
Later: Previews of Stetson and Upstate. After that, I hope: Women's previews.
On the women's side, Mercer travels to Texas A&M tonight, and FGCU is at Florida State Sunday. The big night is Monday, with Jacksonville visiting Florida and Kennesaw State going to North Carolina.
Later: Previews of Stetson and Upstate. After that, I hope: Women's previews.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Thumbnail Preview -- North Florida
Last Year: 3-26 overall, 1-15 in conference. Ineligible for the conference tournament during reclassification.
Losses: Tom Hammonds transferred to Lambuth. Chris Timberlake and James Grimball graduated.
Key Returners: Stan Januska, Devon Jones, and Jermaine Sparks are returning starters. Justin Cecil and Cortez Riley also saw significant minutes last year.
Show Me Numbers: Last year, UNF had seven games where they were tied or within six at the end of regulation. Winnable games, to be sure, but they need to find a way to do so. That said, the Ospreys lost over half of their production from last year, such as it was. Returning players only shot 57.3% from the FT line and 27.5% from 3-point range. As a team, they were last in the conference in every ball-in-hoop category.
Quick Analysis: Last season's numbers bear a striking resemblance to "rock bottom." The Ospreys hope not to go sideways this year. They should have a decent look at 40% FG shooting and 30% from 3-point range, but whether it will be enough to get up off the floor of the conference remains to be seen. UNF's best hope may be on the defensive end. They slow the game down nicely, and held all but 3 conference opponents under 80 points last year.
Stat Projection: 0.90 PPP, 0.98 PEP, and 67.52 PEG are all in the bottom two in the conference.
Losses: Tom Hammonds transferred to Lambuth. Chris Timberlake and James Grimball graduated.
Key Returners: Stan Januska, Devon Jones, and Jermaine Sparks are returning starters. Justin Cecil and Cortez Riley also saw significant minutes last year.
Show Me Numbers: Last year, UNF had seven games where they were tied or within six at the end of regulation. Winnable games, to be sure, but they need to find a way to do so. That said, the Ospreys lost over half of their production from last year, such as it was. Returning players only shot 57.3% from the FT line and 27.5% from 3-point range. As a team, they were last in the conference in every ball-in-hoop category.
Quick Analysis: Last season's numbers bear a striking resemblance to "rock bottom." The Ospreys hope not to go sideways this year. They should have a decent look at 40% FG shooting and 30% from 3-point range, but whether it will be enough to get up off the floor of the conference remains to be seen. UNF's best hope may be on the defensive end. They slow the game down nicely, and held all but 3 conference opponents under 80 points last year.
Stat Projection: 0.90 PPP, 0.98 PEP, and 67.52 PEG are all in the bottom two in the conference.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Thumbnail Preview -- Mercer
Last Year: 11-19 overall, 6-10 in conference (tied for eighth). Lost to Jacksonville in the conference tournament quarterfinals.
Losses: Coach Mark Slonaker, contract not renewed. Starters Shadeen Aaron, Sam Dolan, and Brian Pfohl graduated.
Key Returners: Mercer returns five players who averaged 15+ minutes per game. Calvin Henry was Defensive Player of the Year last year. Despite his tendency to shoot his team out of games, James Florence was named all-conference last year and two years ago was the league's Outstanding Freshman.
Show Me Numbers: The four players gone off of last year's Bears roster combined to shoot better than 48% from the floor, by far the best-shooting senior class in the conference (sorry, Belmont.) Good news for new coach Bob Hoffman: Mercer was also the fastest team in the league last year, averaging close to 75 possessions per game. Looks like a good match between an up-tempo coach and an up-tempo team. The catch? The returning roster is tenth out of eleven teams in the conference in FG%, just under 40%. They take a lot of shots, but they miss a lot of shots.
Quick Analysis: On the plus side, Mercer has an experienced starting line-up to work with. The new coach comes in with a solid reputation; Coach Hoffman was the only assistant at Oklahoma under Kelvin Sampson to be completely exonerated by the NCAA in the phone call scandal -- no small feat, and one I would love a chance to explore with him in person one day. From here, Mercer reminds me of the "little girl who had a little curl right in the middle of her forehead. When she was good, she was very, very good, but when she was bad, she was horrid." In James Florence's shots are falling, they can beat anybody. If not, they can lose to anybody. Calvin Henry's defense will help, as will the fact that this is one of the oldest teams in the conference (only two freshmen and two sophomores on the roster). Given what they have to work with this year, and what they're up against in this league, I look for them to be a solid, middle-of-the-pack team.
Stat Projection: 1.05 PEP is in the bottom half of the league, and 77.79 PEG is in the top half. This probably places them somewhere in the middle.
Losses: Coach Mark Slonaker, contract not renewed. Starters Shadeen Aaron, Sam Dolan, and Brian Pfohl graduated.
Key Returners: Mercer returns five players who averaged 15+ minutes per game. Calvin Henry was Defensive Player of the Year last year. Despite his tendency to shoot his team out of games, James Florence was named all-conference last year and two years ago was the league's Outstanding Freshman.
Show Me Numbers: The four players gone off of last year's Bears roster combined to shoot better than 48% from the floor, by far the best-shooting senior class in the conference (sorry, Belmont.) Good news for new coach Bob Hoffman: Mercer was also the fastest team in the league last year, averaging close to 75 possessions per game. Looks like a good match between an up-tempo coach and an up-tempo team. The catch? The returning roster is tenth out of eleven teams in the conference in FG%, just under 40%. They take a lot of shots, but they miss a lot of shots.
Quick Analysis: On the plus side, Mercer has an experienced starting line-up to work with. The new coach comes in with a solid reputation; Coach Hoffman was the only assistant at Oklahoma under Kelvin Sampson to be completely exonerated by the NCAA in the phone call scandal -- no small feat, and one I would love a chance to explore with him in person one day. From here, Mercer reminds me of the "little girl who had a little curl right in the middle of her forehead. When she was good, she was very, very good, but when she was bad, she was horrid." In James Florence's shots are falling, they can beat anybody. If not, they can lose to anybody. Calvin Henry's defense will help, as will the fact that this is one of the oldest teams in the conference (only two freshmen and two sophomores on the roster). Given what they have to work with this year, and what they're up against in this league, I look for them to be a solid, middle-of-the-pack team.
Stat Projection: 1.05 PEP is in the bottom half of the league, and 77.79 PEG is in the top half. This probably places them somewhere in the middle.
Thumbnail Preview -- Lipscomb
Last Year: 15-16 overall, 9-7 in conference. Lost at home in the conference tournament quarterfinals to ETSU.
Losses: Eddie Ard, probably the best all-around player in Lipscomb's NCAA era, was drafted by the NBA D-League. LaKory Daniels, the outside threat who opened the floor for Ard, averaged over 30 minutes per game. Jason Hopkins and Devon Seaford are also gone.
Key Returners: Thomas Pfaff and Michael Lusk are the only two seniors. Brandon Brown, Adnan Hozdic, and Josh Slater are all sophomores. Michael Teller returns from a medical redshirt last year.
Show Me Numbers: Lipscomb's returning players made fewer than 65% of their free throws. The Bisons also lose over 70% of their shot blocking. On the plus side, Lipscomb has the fourth-best returning roster of 3-point shooters, behind Belmont, Upstate, and Kennesaw. How the extra foot will impact them remains to be seen. Lipscomb is 33-5 at home in the last three years.
Quick Analysis: Get used to hearing about how young Lipscomb is. With two seniors and no juniors, Lipscomb's roster looks a lot like the one Billy Gillespie inherited at Kentucky. The Wildcats were five games off from Tubby Smith's final year, attributed mostly to inexperience. That said, five of the sophomores have played significant minutes, either last year or the year before. One advantage Lipscomb might have, but is difficult to quantify in advance, is their tendency to play some of the best defense in the conference. With the extended 3-point line, and more than a few players still learning their way around the offensive end, Coach Scott Sanderson's defense might be this team's saving grace this year.
Stat Projection: Lipscomb's projected PEP (1.14) and PEG (78.57) are near the middle of the conference. Alma mater, hail.
Losses: Eddie Ard, probably the best all-around player in Lipscomb's NCAA era, was drafted by the NBA D-League. LaKory Daniels, the outside threat who opened the floor for Ard, averaged over 30 minutes per game. Jason Hopkins and Devon Seaford are also gone.
Key Returners: Thomas Pfaff and Michael Lusk are the only two seniors. Brandon Brown, Adnan Hozdic, and Josh Slater are all sophomores. Michael Teller returns from a medical redshirt last year.
Show Me Numbers: Lipscomb's returning players made fewer than 65% of their free throws. The Bisons also lose over 70% of their shot blocking. On the plus side, Lipscomb has the fourth-best returning roster of 3-point shooters, behind Belmont, Upstate, and Kennesaw. How the extra foot will impact them remains to be seen. Lipscomb is 33-5 at home in the last three years.
Quick Analysis: Get used to hearing about how young Lipscomb is. With two seniors and no juniors, Lipscomb's roster looks a lot like the one Billy Gillespie inherited at Kentucky. The Wildcats were five games off from Tubby Smith's final year, attributed mostly to inexperience. That said, five of the sophomores have played significant minutes, either last year or the year before. One advantage Lipscomb might have, but is difficult to quantify in advance, is their tendency to play some of the best defense in the conference. With the extended 3-point line, and more than a few players still learning their way around the offensive end, Coach Scott Sanderson's defense might be this team's saving grace this year.
Stat Projection: Lipscomb's projected PEP (1.14) and PEG (78.57) are near the middle of the conference. Alma mater, hail.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Elvis Has Entered the Building
I just finished reading Kyle Whelliston's pre-season essay series. What I do as a hobby, he does for a living.
Why would anybody pay somebody to write about mid-major basketball? Check out Kyle. Not only is he passionate about the subject, but he can also write circles around 98% of the published English-speaking world.
Next up: Lipscomb preview.
Why would anybody pay somebody to write about mid-major basketball? Check out Kyle. Not only is he passionate about the subject, but he can also write circles around 98% of the published English-speaking world.
Next up: Lipscomb preview.
Thumbnail Preview -- Kennesaw State
Since the season starts this weekend, I'd better get cracking on these team previews.
Last Year: 10-20 overall, 7-9 in conference. Ineligible for the conference tournament during reclassification despite finishing seventh.
Losses: Ronell Wooten and Shawn Stegall graduated. KSU also lost three role players to transfer: Tanner Jacobs to Northern Kentucky, Keonte Keith to Columbus State, and Ryan Daugherty to Life College.
Key Returners: John-Michael Nickerson in the post and Kelvin McConnell outside. Nickerson led the team in blocked shots last year and McConnell was their best 3-point shooter.
Show Me Numbers: Kennesaw was second in the league last year in 3-point ratio (number of 3's attempted / total FG attempts). That number probably needs to come down this year, since last year the Owls made less than 31% of their 3's, and the line is a foot farther back this year. Kennesaw also played the third-fastest tempo in the league last year. Kennesaw has one of only two returning rosters that made fewer than 40% of its FG's last year.
Quick Analysis: If you are a Kennesaw State fan, you probably don't want to hear the words "regression to the mean." Take three starters off last year's overachieving team, move the three-point line back one foot, and the numbers do not look good. Kennesaw does have one strong suit that doesn't show up in the box score, however -- coach Tony Ingle. The man can flat-out coach. The school believes in him, having awarded him a contract extension in the off-season. Plus, the roster has nine newcomers, a group KSU fans are hoping will form the nucleus of the school's first foray into postseason play come 2010.
Stat projection: 1.08 PEP, 77.53 PEG, 0.94 PPP, assuming last year's 72.0 tempo. All three numbers fall between 7th and 10th in the conference.
Last Year: 10-20 overall, 7-9 in conference. Ineligible for the conference tournament during reclassification despite finishing seventh.
Losses: Ronell Wooten and Shawn Stegall graduated. KSU also lost three role players to transfer: Tanner Jacobs to Northern Kentucky, Keonte Keith to Columbus State, and Ryan Daugherty to Life College.
Key Returners: John-Michael Nickerson in the post and Kelvin McConnell outside. Nickerson led the team in blocked shots last year and McConnell was their best 3-point shooter.
Show Me Numbers: Kennesaw was second in the league last year in 3-point ratio (number of 3's attempted / total FG attempts). That number probably needs to come down this year, since last year the Owls made less than 31% of their 3's, and the line is a foot farther back this year. Kennesaw also played the third-fastest tempo in the league last year. Kennesaw has one of only two returning rosters that made fewer than 40% of its FG's last year.
Quick Analysis: If you are a Kennesaw State fan, you probably don't want to hear the words "regression to the mean." Take three starters off last year's overachieving team, move the three-point line back one foot, and the numbers do not look good. Kennesaw does have one strong suit that doesn't show up in the box score, however -- coach Tony Ingle. The man can flat-out coach. The school believes in him, having awarded him a contract extension in the off-season. Plus, the roster has nine newcomers, a group KSU fans are hoping will form the nucleus of the school's first foray into postseason play come 2010.
Stat projection: 1.08 PEP, 77.53 PEG, 0.94 PPP, assuming last year's 72.0 tempo. All three numbers fall between 7th and 10th in the conference.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Mid Major Top 25
Day jobs being what they are, I'm still working on the next batch of previews. Next up, Kennesaw State.
That said, I found today that Belmont is #18 in the pre-season Mid-Major Top 25. Jacksonville is in the ARV category. As I mentioned in the preview, with the Dolphins' non-conference gauntlet, barring an upset they might not get a lot of attention going into January. But they are deep, hungry, and good.
Oh, and Lipscomb beat Freed-Hardeman by 4 in exhibition play last night. Hanging on to beat an NAIA team -- woo hoo. Alma mater hail.
That said, I found today that Belmont is #18 in the pre-season Mid-Major Top 25. Jacksonville is in the ARV category. As I mentioned in the preview, with the Dolphins' non-conference gauntlet, barring an upset they might not get a lot of attention going into January. But they are deep, hungry, and good.
Oh, and Lipscomb beat Freed-Hardeman by 4 in exhibition play last night. Hanging on to beat an NAIA team -- woo hoo. Alma mater hail.
Monday, November 3, 2008
About This Here Election Thing . . .
What I think right now: John McCain is about 2 points closer to Barack Obama than the national and state polls indicate. The final margin in the popular vote will end up in the 3-5 point range.
What I think will happen tomorrow: In addition to the states he's almost certain to win, Obama will pick up Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and probably New Hampshire. Indiana will go for McCain. I don't know what will happen in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, or Ohio. But for McCain to win, he needs all of the solid red states, all of the "I don't know" states, AND either Pennsylvania or Colorado plus Virginia. Even if McCain only loses the nationwide popular vote by 3 points -- the most optimistic estimate I've seen -- I don't see how he can reach deep enough into the "probably blue" list of states to win.
What I'm doing tomorrow: For President, McCain. Too many people in both parties have demonstrated their inability to govern to make me believe that one party should monopolize the executive branch. McCain is most likely to pull from the deepest bench to find people to do the actual governing. For U. S. Senate, Bruce Lunsford. All I know about Mitch McConnell is that he was responsible for steering the bail-out bill through the Republican side of the Senate. For me, that's enough of a reason to fire him. For Congress, Ed Whitfield. Yes, I know, he promised when elected in 1994 that he would only serve 3 terms. If the Democrats had a worthwhile candidate to run against him, that might be enough to pull me in. But so far, not so good. For State House, Tim Thompson. Close call here, but for me the tiebreaker is casinos. For State Senate, Joey Pendleton. I'm not usually a big fan of incumbents, but for me a challenger needs to represent more of a change-of-pace if he wants to replace an experienced legislator. Again, a close call.
What I'll Be Watching Tomorrow: Exit poll demographics. How many 18-34 year olds will really come to the polls? The Obama people are banking on them, and they can ask President Howard Dean how well that typically works. U. S. Senate races. If Lunsford beats McConnell, look out. That probably means a nine-seat pick-up for the Democrats. I think +6 is way more likely, with McConnell, Saxby Chambliss, Norm Coleman, and Elizabeth Dole hanging on.
Bold Prediction: Obama wins the Electoral College 301-237 and the popular vote 71 million to 66 million (about 50 1/2 to 47 percent).
What I think will happen tomorrow: In addition to the states he's almost certain to win, Obama will pick up Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and probably New Hampshire. Indiana will go for McCain. I don't know what will happen in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, or Ohio. But for McCain to win, he needs all of the solid red states, all of the "I don't know" states, AND either Pennsylvania or Colorado plus Virginia. Even if McCain only loses the nationwide popular vote by 3 points -- the most optimistic estimate I've seen -- I don't see how he can reach deep enough into the "probably blue" list of states to win.
What I'm doing tomorrow: For President, McCain. Too many people in both parties have demonstrated their inability to govern to make me believe that one party should monopolize the executive branch. McCain is most likely to pull from the deepest bench to find people to do the actual governing. For U. S. Senate, Bruce Lunsford. All I know about Mitch McConnell is that he was responsible for steering the bail-out bill through the Republican side of the Senate. For me, that's enough of a reason to fire him. For Congress, Ed Whitfield. Yes, I know, he promised when elected in 1994 that he would only serve 3 terms. If the Democrats had a worthwhile candidate to run against him, that might be enough to pull me in. But so far, not so good. For State House, Tim Thompson. Close call here, but for me the tiebreaker is casinos. For State Senate, Joey Pendleton. I'm not usually a big fan of incumbents, but for me a challenger needs to represent more of a change-of-pace if he wants to replace an experienced legislator. Again, a close call.
What I'll Be Watching Tomorrow: Exit poll demographics. How many 18-34 year olds will really come to the polls? The Obama people are banking on them, and they can ask President Howard Dean how well that typically works. U. S. Senate races. If Lunsford beats McConnell, look out. That probably means a nine-seat pick-up for the Democrats. I think +6 is way more likely, with McConnell, Saxby Chambliss, Norm Coleman, and Elizabeth Dole hanging on.
Bold Prediction: Obama wins the Electoral College 301-237 and the popular vote 71 million to 66 million (about 50 1/2 to 47 percent).
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