What I think right now: John McCain is about 2 points closer to Barack Obama than the national and state polls indicate. The final margin in the popular vote will end up in the 3-5 point range.
What I think will happen tomorrow: In addition to the states he's almost certain to win, Obama will pick up Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and probably New Hampshire. Indiana will go for McCain. I don't know what will happen in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, or Ohio. But for McCain to win, he needs all of the solid red states, all of the "I don't know" states, AND either Pennsylvania or Colorado plus Virginia. Even if McCain only loses the nationwide popular vote by 3 points -- the most optimistic estimate I've seen -- I don't see how he can reach deep enough into the "probably blue" list of states to win.
What I'm doing tomorrow: For President, McCain. Too many people in both parties have demonstrated their inability to govern to make me believe that one party should monopolize the executive branch. McCain is most likely to pull from the deepest bench to find people to do the actual governing. For U. S. Senate, Bruce Lunsford. All I know about Mitch McConnell is that he was responsible for steering the bail-out bill through the Republican side of the Senate. For me, that's enough of a reason to fire him. For Congress, Ed Whitfield. Yes, I know, he promised when elected in 1994 that he would only serve 3 terms. If the Democrats had a worthwhile candidate to run against him, that might be enough to pull me in. But so far, not so good. For State House, Tim Thompson. Close call here, but for me the tiebreaker is casinos. For State Senate, Joey Pendleton. I'm not usually a big fan of incumbents, but for me a challenger needs to represent more of a change-of-pace if he wants to replace an experienced legislator. Again, a close call.
What I'll Be Watching Tomorrow: Exit poll demographics. How many 18-34 year olds will really come to the polls? The Obama people are banking on them, and they can ask President Howard Dean how well that typically works. U. S. Senate races. If Lunsford beats McConnell, look out. That probably means a nine-seat pick-up for the Democrats. I think +6 is way more likely, with McConnell, Saxby Chambliss, Norm Coleman, and Elizabeth Dole hanging on.
Bold Prediction: Obama wins the Electoral College 301-237 and the popular vote 71 million to 66 million (about 50 1/2 to 47 percent).
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