Calling it now -- at least one California kid is going to be on TV Friday night. 15 spellers in, and the difference in confidence between the California kids and the rest is palpable.
And wow. I just saw the kid from San Diego. I hope he gets there, just for the mustache factor.
Of course, it's way too early. And we're only seeing them facing one word out of the 27 they are being scored on. They have already taken a 50-word test worth 25 points. The words they're spelling now are worth 3 points each. The top 50 scorers (out of 293) advance to the TV semifinals tomorrow.
Canada is up now. Stay tuned.
UPDATE -- End of the third quarter. The oral round is scoring at about an 83% clip. I'm guessing (not unreasonably, I don't think) that the written round averaged about 84%. Based on those probabilities, 43 kids out of 293 will score 29 or higher. That only leaves seven spots for somebody who missed one in the oral round, provided they aced the written test.
It's the National Spelling Bee. The margin for error is very, very slim.
UPDATE AGAIN -- Another interesting stat: Kids who have been to the Spelling Bee at least once are 122-for-134 (91%) in the oral rounds, while newcomers are 343-for-419 (81%) so far. Spellers on their third or fourth national bee are a combined 35-for-36, or 97.2%.
MY PICK -- Kavia Shivashankar of Olathe, Kansas. If experience counts, this could be her year. This is her fourth finals, and she has 3 top-10 finishes already. No other speller in the field has placed in the top 25 more than once. Watch out also for defending-runner-up Sidharth Chand and last year's 10-th place finisher Kyle Mou.
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