The DoT Matrix -- Use The Force, Luke

"This is the weapon of a Jeopardy Knight . . . an elegant weapon for a more civilized age."

In February 2011, IBM challenged Jeopardy greats Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter to a match against a supercomputer they named Watson.

To the surprise of many carbon-based lifeforms, Watson won easily. But those of us who have been on the show -- especially those who were part of the practice games Watson played -- know the truth.

Watson had a huge advantage on the buzzer.

On Jeopardy, a player cannot ring in until Alex finishes reading the clue and a coordinator offstage flips a switch powering the podium lights. Hit your button too soon, and your podium is darkened for the first quarter of a second after the others are turned on. Wait too long, and the other player beats you. Finding that moment, that sweet spot, over and over again is not terribly unlike what a Jedi does swatting away battle droid blaster shots.

But with Watson, buzzing early was physically impossible. The mechanism that allowed It to ring in was powered by the same button that activated the lights for Ken and Brad. In other words, they could ring in early, but It couldn't.

That buzzer advantage was more than enough to make up for the huge knowledge deficit The Machine faced.

You see, some Jeopardy players are teeming with knowledge. Others are teeming with midichloreans.

Which brings us to this year's Tournament of Champions.

In the previous post, we figured out a way to estimate how much knowledge a player had during his regular season run. But knowing a lot of answers isn't enough; you have to be able to get i on the buzzer to show what you know. Buzzer proficiency, then, can be calculated by comparing the number of answers the player actually knew with the number of correct answers they gave (not including Daily Doubles).

The formula is as follows:

Buzzer Proficiency = Correct Responses Given / ((Answers Known per 60 clues / 60) * Total clues seen)

So the greatest Buzzer Jedi in this year's TOC is . . . drum roll . . .

Kara Spack. The only woman from the regular season to make the field.

When Kara knew an answer, she got in on the buzzer an amazing 72% of the time. By comparison, at his best Ken Jennings got in two times out of three. (Of course, he also knew 54 answers per game, so there's that.)

What's amazing about that is the theory floating among Jeopardy analysts that says that the reason 12 of the 13 contestants in the year's TOC are men is because Jeopardy is not so much a test of knowledge as it is a video game, which in America gives a cultural advantage to males ages 18-34. As Watson proved, what separates the merely smart from Jeopardy titans is proficiency on the buzzer. Kara's numbers may necessitate a re-thinking of the Video Game Theory as an explanation of the gender gap in TOC contestants.

Of course, for all we know in addition to her Jeopardy prowess Kara may really be the greatest Worlds of Warcraft player ever to walk the Earth. Or The Force may just be strong with this one where it isn't with others.

Either way, Kara looks to be a Force all her own in this year's Tournament.

The rest of the field in Buzzer Proficiency:

Kara 72.2%
Buddy 69.1%
Paul 67.9%
Tom K 62.0%
Roger 57.9%
Joon 57.2%
Jay 54.6%
Christopher 51.5%
John 49.7%
Mark 48.9%
Tom N 48.3%
Justin 45.0%
Brian 41.8%

Notice that nobody gets to the TOC with merely average buzzer ability. Also notice that some players can actually make up for an information gap by being good with the buzzer (a la Bob Harris). But the players that are most to be feared going forward are those who are both exceptional in their knowledge base and able to wield their Weapon with skill and precision.

Before long I half expect Roger to start shooting lightning out of his fingers.

NEXT: Degree of Difficulty -- What the BCS can teach us about Jeopardy tournaments