The DoT Matrix -- What's a Right Answer Worth?

The short answer: it depends on how good you are with the buzzer.

So, for our purposes, let's make another assumption.

• Unless one of the players on the stage is destined for 4 or more wins, assume that your buzzer skills are up against two average players. Also, assume that your buzzer skills are average.

Now then, once we have calculated how likely an average player is to attempt a buzz on a given level of clue (see previous post), we can calculate the clam rate, which we'll call CR. Against two players, one of three possibilities exists -- either both will try to buzz, one will buzz and the other won't, or both will clam.

If both clam, your Buzz Chance is 100%. If one hits the buzzer, your chances are 50%. If both go for it, your chances drop to 33 1/3 %.

So to calculate your chances of buzzing in on a given clue against 2 average players, the formula is:

CR ^ 2 + (CR * (1 - CR)) + ((1 - CR) ^ 2) / 3

To determine the value of knowing an answer, then, figure out how often you would buzz in successfully and multiply by the value of the clue. (A $200 clue you can buzz in on 60% of the time would be worth $120.)

Note that a wrong answer would only cost you the expected value, rather than the full value, because somebody might beat your wrong answer to the buzzer with a right one, saving you both the points and the shame. *cough* It's his wedding *cough*

So, abiding by standard Coryat rules (only credit what you know by the time Alex finishes reading, non-guesses are worth 0, Daily Doubles are a special case), you can compare your score to the on-screen players by assigning the following values (rounded to the nearest 10):

SINGLE JEOPARDY

Clue Value CR DoT Matrix Value
200 27% 90
400 32% 190
600 36% 300
800 39% 410
1000 48% 570

DOUBLE JEOPARDY

Clue Value CR DoT Matrix Value
400 29% 180
800 40% 440
1200 45% 670
1600 46% 930
2000 54% 1,220

What To Do About Daily Doubles

When I use these numbers at home, I round to the nearest hundred. That way I can pause the DVD and figure out Daily Double wagers based on what I think I would have at that point of the game. There are two rules for determining whether i get to make a DD wager. 1) I had to answer the previous question correctly and 2) I have to win a coin flip (since I figure my chances of being in control of the board when a DD is revealed are right around 50-50 if I knew the previous response). If I'm playing a DD I make a wager base don my score. If not, I ignore the clue.

Note that some folks recommend for those preparing to go on the show to ignore Daily Doubles altogether (or at least treat them like a regular clue). I tend to agree -- if your purpose in keeping score and tracking data is to prepare for The Show itself. But if you've already been on The Show, or if you're just playing along for fun and you don't anticipate using this data later, having realistic numbers on which to base DD wagers can add something to watching the game. Plus, even if you are preparing for The Show, it can give you a sense of what Daily Double wagering feels like.

And yes, I know, some DD wagers are scenario-based and not score-based. When those situations arise, I calculate the difference between my DoT Matrix score and the score of the player on TV, mentally adjust the other two players equally up (or down) accordingly, and decide on a wager.

NEXT: Assessing the field for the Tournament of Champions