Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 28, 2012

Been sick all weekend, so I'm way behind. Quick update for now, comments with the next update (Thursday-ish??)

1	Kentucky	Syracuse	Michigan State	Kansas
16	MVSU/Weber State	UNC-Asheville/Stony Brook	Norfolk State	Lehigh
8	Temple	Iowa State	Creighton	Purdue
9	Texas	Murray State	San Diego State	Notre Dame
4	Georgetown	Wichita State	Florida	Louisville
13	MTSU	Belmont	Cincinnati/Arizona	Iona
5	Michigan	Vanderbilt	Gonzaga	UNLV
12	Harvard	N. C. State/Xavier	Long Beach State	Miami (FL)*
2	Missouri	North Carolina	Duke	Ohio State
15	Akron	Cleveland State	Wagner	Texas-Arlington
7	Virginia	Kansas State	St. Louis	Florida State
10	Connecticut	St. Mary's	Seton Hall	Southern Miss
3	Wisconsin	Indiana	Baylor	Marquette
14	New Mexico State	Davidson	Oral Roberts	VCU
6	Memphis	New Mexico	California	Alabama
11	Washington*	West Virginia*	Northwestern*	BYU

Teams marked with an * are the most likely to fall into the PIG once Conference Tournament season gets good and weird.

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 22, 2012

Here's the latest. I plan to update more often as the day draws nigh. I don't know exactly how often, but I suspect more than once a week at least.

Also, thee was a slight tweak of the algorithm this week. I wanted to tinker with the balance of resume strength and prediction to try to get as close to what the committee does as I can. I can see a little bit of movement in the numbers, but not much.

This week's bracket:

1	Kentucky	Syracuse	Michigan State	Kansas
16	MVSU/Lehigh	Vermont/UNC-Asheville	Norfolk State	Weber State
8	Texas	Gonzaga	Southern Miss	Alabama
9	St. Mary's	Iowa State	West Virginia	Notre Dame
4	New Mexico	Indiana	Florida	Louisville
13	Cincinnati/Minnesota*	Long Beach State	Iona	Belmont
5	St. Louis	UNLV	Wichita State	Michigan
12	Miami (FL)**	Mississippi State**	Arizona/N C State*	BYU**
2	North Carolina	Duke	Missouri	Ohio State
15	Wagner	New Mexico State	Cleveland State	Texas-Arlington
7	Kansas State	Creighton	Virginia	Temple
10	Murray State	Connecticut	San Diego State	Harvard
3	Wisconsin	Baylor	Georgetown	Marquette
14	Akron	Davidson	Oral Roberts	VCU
6	Memphis	Vanderbilt	California	Florida State
11	Seton Hall	Purdue	Northwestern**	MTSU

*In the Media mock bracket conducted by the NCAA this week, there were 21 Auto-bids below the last at-large. In my bracket, there are 17. Given the rate of upsets in conference tournaments historically, it seems reasonable to guess that during Championship Fortnight, the bubble will shrink by 3-4 teams.

So if I have you in the At-Large PIG, you're probably more likely to end up in the NIT barring a deeper-than-expected tournament run of your own and/or a complete lack of Championship Fortnight upsets.

The teams marked with a ** would, similarly, fall into the AL-PIG when the upsets happen.

INS & OUTS:

IN -- Cincinnati, New Mexico State, Lehigh
OUT -- Illinois, Nevada, Bucknell

BIGGEST MOVERS:

St. Mary's (6 to 9), San Diego State (7 to 10), BYU (9 to 12)

Virginia (5 to 7), West Virginia (11 to 9), Notre Dame (11 to 9), Northwestern (13 to 11), Mississippi State (10 to 12)

TOP 10 OUT:

Xavier, Washington, St. Joseph's, Drexel, LaSalle, South Dakota State, Oregon, Illinois, Central Florida, Wyoming

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 14, 2012

For such a topsy-turvy week, very little change in this week's Random Nerd Bracketology. 3 new conference leaders, 2 new at-larges, and a few teams moving up or down a bit.

But this is the way it's supposed to be. As the season goes on, the picture is supposed to get clearer, right?

Right?

Anyway, here's this week's bracket:

1	Kentucky	Syracuse	Ohio State	Kansas
16	Texas-Arlington/MVSU	UNC-Asheville/Vermont	Norfolk State	Weber State
8	Temple	Southern Miss	Creighton	Gonzaga
9	Iowa State	BYU	Texas	Alabama
4	Georgetown	Florida	Louisville	UNLV
13	Long Beach State	Iona	Northwestern/Arizona	Oral Roberts
5	New Mexico	Michigan	Virginia	Wichita State
12	Purdue	Seton Hall/N. C. State	MTSU	Minnesota
2	North Carolina	Duke	Missouri	Michigan State
15	Cleveland State	Wagner	Bucknell	Nevada
7	Kansas State	San Diego State	Vanderbilt	Florida State
10	Connecticut	Harvard	Miami (FL)	Mississippi State
3	Baylor	Wisconsin	Indiana	Marquette
14	Akron	Davidson	VCU	Belmont
6	St. Mary's	St. Louis	Memphis	California
11	Illinois	Notre Dame	West Virginia	Murray State

INS AND OUTS:

IN: Akron, UNC-Asheville, Vermont, Northwestern, N. C. State
OUT: Xavier, Wyoming, Ohio U, Stony Brook, Coastal Carolina

BIGGEST MOVERS:

Creighton (4 to 8), Memphis (9 to 6), Temple (11 to 8), BYU (12 to 9), Miami-FL (13 to 10), Murray State (8 to 11)

Baylor (1 to 3), New Mexico (7 to 5), St. Louis (8 to 6), Florida State (5 to 7), Southern Miss (6 to 8), Texas (11 to 9), Illinois (9 to 11), Seton Hall (10 to 12), Cleveland State (13 to 15)

BUBBLE TOP 10: Xavier, Wyoming, Drexel, Cincinnati, South Dakota State, St. Joseph's, Washington, LaSalle, Central Florida, Stanford

BY CONFERENCE: ACC 6, A-10 2, Big East 8, Big 10 9, Big XII 6, C-USA 2, Missouri Valey 2, Mountain West 3, PAC-12 2, SEC 5, West Coast 3

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 6, 2012

These projections are as of games of Sunday, February 4.

Also, as I mentioned in the comments, these projections are a hybrid of the "season to date" and the "projection of season" methods. In determining my conference auto-bids, I look at a combination of straight ordinal ranking, MOV, and tempo-free stats to determine which team is most likely to win the conference tournament. Then, for bracket purposes, I assume they all do.

I know.

I then take the 37 best teams that the numbers say will need an at-large, give them one, and bracket from there.

So, this field is based on the assumptions that: 1) conference tournaments will go according to script, with everybody losing when they're "supposed to" and 2) conference tournament winners will be viewed more highly by the committee and get seeding bonuses relative to at-larges. (That's why Baylor has been a one-seed the last two weeks. My numbers have them beating Kansas for the Big XII title, while Michigan State loses to Ohio State in the Big 10 final).

Now I'm not naive enough to think March will go completely according to form. With the exception of the 2008 Final Four, it's been a long time since we've seen any degree of March Blandness. Things get weird. That's why, if you're one of the Top 10 Out, you'd be well advised to move up as best as you can as quickly as you can before crazy stuff starts to happen regularly.

Side note about the Top 10 Out: Consider them your Championship Fortnight Watch List. These are the teams the computer tells me are most likely to make a March run and land in the bracket, but not necessarily the ones that are most likely to slide in if somebody else stumbles. To move up, they need to get farther in their conference tournaments than the computer says they "should."

Example: South Dakota State. I, for one, don't really think South Dakota State is the 38th best at-large. But they are good enough to beat Oral Roberts one time in a one-and-done scenario, and if they do they'll likely find themselves on the 13 (or at worst 14) line on Selection Sunday. But since they're "supposed to" make the Summit League final, the only way they can improve their bracket position relative to other at-larges during Championship Fortnight is to actually win the tournament and not need an at-large.

A quick note about comments: Unless you're Spam or an SEO, I will post and respond as best I can. And I don't mind anonymous comments. But please let me know whether you are a Bracketology Expert Type or a Random Fan, so I know how much explaining I need to do when I respond. I don't want to insult your intelligence by talking about things like sample size and committee relevant vs. irrelevant data if you already know all of that and all you want to know is why I put a given team where I did. I enjoy engaging the BETs, and even enjoy interacting with RFs, but since I'm new at this it would help me a lot if I knew which was which when I responded.

Thanks.

On to this week's projection:

1	Syracuse	Kentucky	Ohio State	Baylor
16	MVSU/Texas-Arlington	Stony Brook/Coastal Carolina	Norfolk State	Weber State
8	San Diego State	Murray State	St. Louis	Gonzaga
9	Memphis	Illinois	Iowa State	Connecticut
4	Indiana	Marquette	UNLV	Creighton
13	Xavier/Miami (FL)	Iona	Cleveland State	Wyoming/Arizona
5	St. Mary's	Florida State	Louisville	Virginia
12	MTSU	BYU	Long Beach State	Purdue
2	Missouri	Kansas	North Carolina	Michigan State
15	Ohio U	Wagner	Nevada	Bucknell
7	Vanderbilt	New Mexico	California	Alabama
10	West Virginia	Mississippi State	Seton Hall	Harvard
3	Duke	Wisconsin	Florida	Georgetown
14	VCU	Belmont	Davidson	Oral Roberts
6	Michigan	Wichita State	Kansas State	Southern Miss
11	Temple	Notre Dame	Minnesota	Texas

INS AND OUTS:

IN: Arizona. Coastal Carolina, Notre Dame
OUT: UNC-Asheville, Cincinnati, LaSalle

BIGGEST MOVERS:

St. Louis (11 to 8), Virginia (3 to 5), Southern Miss (8 to 6), Vanderbilt (5 to 7), San Diego State (6 to 8), West Virginia (8 to 10), Temple (9 to 11), Minnesota (9 to 11)

BUBBLE TOP 10: South Dakota State, LaSalle, Northwestern, Washington, Arkansas, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Drexel, Akron, N. C. State

BY CONFERENCE: ACC 5, A-10 3, Big 10 8, Big East 8, Big XII 6, Missouri Valley 2, Mountain West 4, Pac 12 2, SEC 5, West Coast 3