Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- February 22, 2012

Here's the latest. I plan to update more often as the day draws nigh. I don't know exactly how often, but I suspect more than once a week at least.

Also, thee was a slight tweak of the algorithm this week. I wanted to tinker with the balance of resume strength and prediction to try to get as close to what the committee does as I can. I can see a little bit of movement in the numbers, but not much.

This week's bracket:

1	Kentucky	Syracuse	Michigan State	Kansas
16	MVSU/Lehigh	Vermont/UNC-Asheville	Norfolk State	Weber State
8	Texas	Gonzaga	Southern Miss	Alabama
9	St. Mary's	Iowa State	West Virginia	Notre Dame
4	New Mexico	Indiana	Florida	Louisville
13	Cincinnati/Minnesota*	Long Beach State	Iona	Belmont
5	St. Louis	UNLV	Wichita State	Michigan
12	Miami (FL)**	Mississippi State**	Arizona/N C State*	BYU**
2	North Carolina	Duke	Missouri	Ohio State
15	Wagner	New Mexico State	Cleveland State	Texas-Arlington
7	Kansas State	Creighton	Virginia	Temple
10	Murray State	Connecticut	San Diego State	Harvard
3	Wisconsin	Baylor	Georgetown	Marquette
14	Akron	Davidson	Oral Roberts	VCU
6	Memphis	Vanderbilt	California	Florida State
11	Seton Hall	Purdue	Northwestern**	MTSU

*In the Media mock bracket conducted by the NCAA this week, there were 21 Auto-bids below the last at-large. In my bracket, there are 17. Given the rate of upsets in conference tournaments historically, it seems reasonable to guess that during Championship Fortnight, the bubble will shrink by 3-4 teams.

So if I have you in the At-Large PIG, you're probably more likely to end up in the NIT barring a deeper-than-expected tournament run of your own and/or a complete lack of Championship Fortnight upsets.

The teams marked with a ** would, similarly, fall into the AL-PIG when the upsets happen.

INS & OUTS:

IN -- Cincinnati, New Mexico State, Lehigh
OUT -- Illinois, Nevada, Bucknell

BIGGEST MOVERS:

St. Mary's (6 to 9), San Diego State (7 to 10), BYU (9 to 12)

Virginia (5 to 7), West Virginia (11 to 9), Notre Dame (11 to 9), Northwestern (13 to 11), Mississippi State (10 to 12)

TOP 10 OUT:

Xavier, Washington, St. Joseph's, Drexel, LaSalle, South Dakota State, Oregon, Illinois, Central Florida, Wyoming