Also, as I mentioned in the comments, these projections are a hybrid of the "season to date" and the "projection of season" methods. In determining my conference auto-bids, I look at a combination of straight ordinal ranking, MOV, and tempo-free stats to determine which team is most likely to win the conference tournament. Then, for bracket purposes, I assume they all do.
I know.
I then take the 37 best teams that the numbers say will need an at-large, give them one, and bracket from there.
So, this field is based on the assumptions that: 1) conference tournaments will go according to script, with everybody losing when they're "supposed to" and 2) conference tournament winners will be viewed more highly by the committee and get seeding bonuses relative to at-larges. (That's why Baylor has been a one-seed the last two weeks. My numbers have them beating Kansas for the Big XII title, while Michigan State loses to Ohio State in the Big 10 final).
Now I'm not naive enough to think March will go completely according to form. With the exception of the 2008 Final Four, it's been a long time since we've seen any degree of March Blandness. Things get weird. That's why, if you're one of the Top 10 Out, you'd be well advised to move up as best as you can as quickly as you can before crazy stuff starts to happen regularly.
Side note about the Top 10 Out: Consider them your Championship Fortnight Watch List. These are the teams the computer tells me are most likely to make a March run and land in the bracket, but not necessarily the ones that are most likely to slide in if somebody else stumbles. To move up, they need to get farther in their conference tournaments than the computer says they "should."
Example: South Dakota State. I, for one, don't really think South Dakota State is the 38th best at-large. But they are good enough to beat Oral Roberts one time in a one-and-done scenario, and if they do they'll likely find themselves on the 13 (or at worst 14) line on Selection Sunday. But since they're "supposed to" make the Summit League final, the only way they can improve their bracket position relative to other at-larges during Championship Fortnight is to actually win the tournament and not need an at-large.
A quick note about comments: Unless you're Spam or an SEO, I will post and respond as best I can. And I don't mind anonymous comments. But please let me know whether you are a Bracketology Expert Type or a Random Fan, so I know how much explaining I need to do when I respond. I don't want to insult your intelligence by talking about things like sample size and committee relevant vs. irrelevant data if you already know all of that and all you want to know is why I put a given team where I did. I enjoy engaging the BETs, and even enjoy interacting with RFs, but since I'm new at this it would help me a lot if I knew which was which when I responded.
Thanks.
On to this week's projection:
| 1 | Syracuse | Kentucky | Ohio State | Baylor |
| 16 | MVSU/Texas-Arlington | Stony Brook/Coastal Carolina | Norfolk State | Weber State |
| 8 | San Diego State | Murray State | St. Louis | Gonzaga |
| 9 | Memphis | Illinois | Iowa State | Connecticut |
| 4 | Indiana | Marquette | UNLV | Creighton |
| 13 | Xavier/Miami (FL) | Iona | Cleveland State | Wyoming/Arizona |
| 5 | St. Mary's | Florida State | Louisville | Virginia |
| 12 | MTSU | BYU | Long Beach State | Purdue |
| 2 | Missouri | Kansas | North Carolina | Michigan State |
| 15 | Ohio U | Wagner | Nevada | Bucknell |
| 7 | Vanderbilt | New Mexico | California | Alabama |
| 10 | West Virginia | Mississippi State | Seton Hall | Harvard |
| 3 | Duke | Wisconsin | Florida | Georgetown |
| 14 | VCU | Belmont | Davidson | Oral Roberts |
| 6 | Michigan | Wichita State | Kansas State | Southern Miss |
| 11 | Temple | Notre Dame | Minnesota | Texas |
INS AND OUTS:
IN: Arizona. Coastal Carolina, Notre Dame
OUT: UNC-Asheville, Cincinnati, LaSalle
BIGGEST MOVERS:
St. Louis (11 to 8), Virginia (3 to 5), Southern Miss (8 to 6), Vanderbilt (5 to 7), San Diego State (6 to 8), West Virginia (8 to 10), Temple (9 to 11), Minnesota (9 to 11)
BUBBLE TOP 10: South Dakota State, LaSalle, Northwestern, Washington, Arkansas, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Drexel, Akron, N. C. State
BY CONFERENCE: ACC 5, A-10 3, Big 10 8, Big East 8, Big XII 6, Missouri Valley 2, Mountain West 4, Pac 12 2, SEC 5, West Coast 3
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