Thursday, October 30, 2008

Thumbnail Preview -- Jacksonville

Last Year: 18-13 overall, 12-4 in conference. Lost to Belmont in the tournament finals.

Key Returners: Just about everybody. Nine letter winners are back, including all five starters. Marcus Allen and Ben Smith were on my all-conference lists last year.

Show Me Numbers: The numbers look quite good for Jacksonville this year. They project to be in the top 3 in several key stats, including 2-point shooting, FT shooting, and preventing turnovers. They are also the second-most experienced team in the league, replacing only 157 out of 2,050 used possessions.

Quick Analysis: The Jacksonville Dolphins are deep, experienced, and hungry. They come off last year's conference finals defeat in great shape to make another deep run. Expectations are high, and their non-conference schedule is tough -- both good signs, since it is easier to get big-time non-conference games if the other team thinks you'll contribute 20+ wins to their RPI. One possible Achilles heel is the 3-ball, where they project to shoot under 32%. But since they shoot relatively few 3's for an A-Sun team (barely over 30% of FG attempts), if they can play from the lead they'll be fine.

Stat Projection: PEP 1.12, PEG 78.40, both good for fourth. They will also be in the top 3 defensively.

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