I'm Done

I've seen enough.

I usually enjoy college basketball, no matter who's playing, but last night . . . meh. It's not just that the games were bad (which they were). It's not just that I've been all but eliminated in our family bracket contest (which I am. My only hope is for North Carolina to win out, beating Villanova and anybody but Louisville in the process.)

There's simply nobody left to root for.

Gonzaga has long since left the days of "the glass slipper still fits." (Watch out, Western Kentucky. You're next.) Xavier is out. The Final Four has a realistic shot at looking like the Euro 2008 semis.

Cinderella has left the building.

I suppose I don't have anybody to blame but myself. I've read entirely too much about how the sausage that is college basketball is made. After eight years of trying, I've even gotten pretty good at predicting who will be seeded where. Sadly, since the advent of the one-and-done rule three years ago, it's become even easier to predict what's going to happen once the seed lines are drawn. George Mason was a once-in-a-lifetime fluke. Davidson was a one-man show; just look what happened when their one guy got hurt. Even little brother Curry is flying the coop at Liberty for bigger and better.

I knew all that. Kyle Whelliston's red line makes it pretty clear. The cool kids have come to take over the playground, and it's time for the oddballs to go home.

So fine. I'm leaving.

I'll probably be back next year. No promises -- unlike the NCAA's, life cannot always be rigged to produce the outcome we like. If something happens in the A-Sun between now and next October 15, I'll make a note of it. I'll probably check in around baseball & softball tournament time.

But for me, basketball season is over.

God bless.

NCAA Buzzer Beaters

To refresh -- a "buzzer beater" is a shot that is in the air with less than 1 second left, where if it goes in the score is tied or the shooters take the lead.

The only one to go in this year was in the Gonzaga-Western Kentucky game.

The last person to make one in the NCAA tournament was Travis Rogers of Western Kentucky last year against Drake.

So far this year the field is 2-for-9.

GOOD:

• Gonazaga over Western Kentucky on Demitri Goodson's lay-up with 0.9 seconds left.
• Scottie Reynolds of Villanova hits a runner with 0.5 left to beat Pittsburgh.

NO GOOD:

• Clemson missed a potential tying 3 against Michigan.
• VCU missed a 17-foot jumper against UCLA that would have won it.
• Tennessee missed a 3 at the buzzer that would have beaten Oklahoma State.
• Ohio State missed 3 buzzer-beaters against Siena. Two 3-pointers at the buzzer of regulation and the first overtime, and a contested jumper at the end of the second OT, all missed.
• Pittsburgh goes off the backboard from 75 feet at the horn against Villanova.
  

Stay tuned.

ETSU vs. Pittsburgh

Sorry to join midstream, but day jobs, real life, yadda yadda yadda.

Mike Smith is a beast. Kevin Tiggs had a nice alley-oop. Isaiah Brown has two fouls early. But the Bucs are hanging in there, mostly with drives to the hoop.

7 to go, first half -- ETSU just had a 4-on-1 breakaway denied by a shot clock violation. They didn't pick up the loose ball before the buzzer. Pitt by 1.

Kevin Tiggs is loving life right now. It's all Tiggs all the time offensively. Pigram is having a solid day defensively. Pitt is having their way on the glass, when they want to. Fortunately for ETSU, there are times when the Bucs want it more.

This is what ETSU needs to do -- Support Tiggs on offense. Rally around Pigram on the defensive end. Want the ball when the shot goes up. Keep Mike Smith on the floor as long as you can.

Final TV timeout of the half. Pitt by 2.

Eleven Pitt turnovers, plus a technical for hanging on the rim. Pitt still by 2, even though ETSU is not shooting well.

Weird play just now -- Pitt player bumps Hubbard into Smith, who was trying to shoot. Smith misses, and goes to the foul line. Not sure who the "victim" of the foul is in that spot. Checking with the officiating.com forum.

Halftime. Pitt 26, ETSU 23. Mike Smith was a fraction of a hair late on a shot at the buzzer that would have cut it to one. Great play, well executed.

ETSU is ready. Pitt is sluggish and sloppy. Look out.

Straight out of halftime Mike Smith for 3. Bottom.

Pigram is 2-for-11 now. Stay confident, kid. It'll happen. Just keep playing defense and let the offense come to you.

This is why ETSU is still in this game. Courtney Pigram with brilliant defense on a breakaway. Pitt misses twice, then Mike Smith gets back to tip the rebound clear.

Are you kidding me? Mike Smith making trouble in the low block. Mike Hamlin with the block. Courtney Pigram with the second-chance basket. Pitt sloppy against the ETSU press. ETSU ball, down 2 at the TV timeout. The crowd begins to believe.

You have to make the free throws. ETSU is 6-14 at the line. But they're only down 1, and their biggest deficit all night has been 6.

8:03 to go, Pitt by 5, ETSU ball. Mike Smith misses, then the teams trade 3's. Kevin Tiggs just kept the Bucs alive. Timeout.

Tommy Hubbard just fouled out. Both teams are absolutely exhausted. In most games of this type, this is the point where the 1-seed's depth becomes the deciding factor. When the shoes stop squeaking, things revert to seed form. But ETSU is only down 6. Under 5 to go.

Here we go. Brown scores, misses the FT. Pigram for 3 off the offensive rebound. Turnover. 59-57.

69-61, under a minute to go. DeJuan Blair has owned the last 3 minutes.

Ball game. Pitt 72, ETSU 62. Solid effort by the Bucs, but not quite enough. Tiggs had 21, Pigram had 17. Offensive rebounding was superb, but FT shooting was abysmal. The Bucs left 7 points on the floor with their misses at the line. All in all, a good effort. Not quite the scare Belmont gave Duke, but a solid performance.

They Might Be Grammy Winners -- Again

Congratulations to the coolest rock band ever on their second Grammy win. Best Children's Album on 2008 -- Here Come the 123's.

A-Sun Blog-et-ology

Edited on March 13, 6:20 p.m. -- A lot of stuff happened, and I found a fatal error in one of the pairings. Should be all fixed now.


Edited March 15, 8:30 a.m. -- Latest auto-bid updates

In case you missed it, ETSU beat Jacksonville to win the A-Sun title. This just in, Mike Smith is pretty good.

Here's my best guess at what a bracket might look like if the season ended today. Look for some changes on the 11 & 12 lines as the BCS tournaments play out. I'm putting ETSU in a 15-seed match-up with Louisville (edit 3/13: Oklahoma) in round one.

1 -- North Carolina
16 -- Alabama State/Chattanooga (PIG)
8 -- Tennessee
9 -- Ohio State
4 -- Villanova
13 -- North Dakota State
5 -- Xavier
12 -- USC
2 -- Oklahoma
15 -- ETSU
7 -- Marquette
10 -- Siena
3 -- Washington
14 -- Cornell
6 -- Purdue
11 -- Boston College

1 -- Pittsburgh
16 -- Morehead State
8 -- LSU
9 -- Texas A&M
4 -- UCLA
13 -- Northern Iowa
5 -- Clemson
12 -- Cleveland State
2 -- Michigan State
15 -- Robert Morris
7 -- Utah
10 -- Dayton
3 -- Kansas
14 -- Portland State
6 -- Florida State
11 -- Arizona

1 -- Connnecticut
16 -- Radford
8 -- California
9 -- Utah State
4 -- Gonzaga
13 -- Western Kentucky
5 -- Illinois
12 -- Virginia Commonwealth
2 -- Duke
15 -- Binghamton
7 -- Butler
10 -- Minnesota
3 -- Missouri
14 -- Akron
6 -- West Virginia
11 -- San Diego State

1 -- Memphis
16 -- Morgan State
8 -- Oklahoma State
9 -- Wisconsin
4 -- Syracuse
13 -- Stephen F. Austin/Texas Southern winner
5 -- BYU
12 -- Temple
2 -- Louisville
15 -- CS-Northridge
7 -- Texas
10 -- Michigan
3 -- Wake Forest
14 -- American
6 -- Arizona State
11 -- Florida (Mississippi State goes here with an SEC tournament title)

A-Sun Blog Post-Season Awards

Using a version of "win shares" modified for college basketball, here is the official Atlantic Sun Blog All-Conference Team.

1st Team:

Mike Smith (ETSU) 5.48 win shares
Alex Renfroe (BEL) 5.15
Ayron Hardy (JAX) 4.78
Kevin Tiggs (ETSU) 4.71
Daniel Emerson (MER) 3.79

Player of the Year -- Mike Smith, ETSU.

The conference vote went to Alex Renfroe, and anytime a player leads his team in points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks, and the team goes 14-6 and has a good look at the conference title on the last day, it's hard to argue. Of the 50 best individual performances this year, Renfroe had seven of them. When I started running the numbers, I honestly thought Renfroe would come out on top.

But then I looked at Mike Smith. And everywhere Renfroe was good, Smith was just a little better, especially in the stats that lead to wins.

Between the two, it was close. And as I said, Renfroe has a case. A look at the numbers, though, says it's not as open and shut a case as the voting might indicate.


2nd Team:

Bobby Davis (USCU) 3.45
Adnan Hodzic (DLU) 3.17
Marcus Allen (JAX) 3.16
Garfield Blair (STET) 3.08
Jonathan Rodriguez (CAM) 3.04

Honorable Mention (win shares totals of 2 or more)

BELMONT -- Matthew Dotson, Shane Dansby
CAMPBELL -- Junard Hartley
ETSU -- Mike Hamlin, Isaiah Brown
GULF COAST -- Derrick O'Neal
JACKSONVILLE -- Ben Smith (3.02 win shares, 11th overall), Lehmon Colbert
LIPSCOMB -- Josh Slater, Brandon Brown, Michael Lusk, Michael Teller
MERCER -- James Florence

All-Defensive Team (Defense win shares of 2 or more):

Mike Smith (ETSU) 3.11
Kevin Tiggs (ETSU) 2.64
Alex Renfroe (BEL) 2.30
James Florence (MER) 2.11
Garfield Blair (STET) 2.08

Yes, James Florence is one of the five best defenders in the conference. Ayron Hardy of Jacksonville, who was voted Defensive Player of the Year, was ninth in defensive win shares with 1.66. Ironically, Aryon Hardy was more of an asset to his team offensively, while James Florence was more of an asset of defense.

Outstanding Newcomer: Daniel Emerson, Mercer. This is a recording.

All-Freshman Team: TBA

Coach of the Year: Matt Kilcullen, UNF. Based on their statistical output, the Ospreys should have only won 2 games this conference season. They finished 6-14, four games better.

And in the Other Game . . .

Jacksonville vs. Lipscomb

Jacksonville is the one-seed for a reason, mostly on the defensive end. Top to bottom, the Dolphins get after it on defense. They have very few weaknesses on that side of the floor. Plus, they have the most efficient offense in the conference, scoring more than 1.1 points per possession.

Lipscomb comes in on a roll, rattling off nine straight wins including victories over the top 3 seeds in the tournament. The Campbell game last night was easier than expected, so rest shouldn't be an issue. That said, the Jacksonville defense will be. Lipscomb runs one of the fastest offenses in the conference (only ETSU and Mercer are faster), but that only works if the shot actually goes up. If this game turns into a shoot-and-rebound contest, Lipscomb has a puncher's chance. But if Jacksonville does what it does well -- turning good shots into bad ones and bad shots into defensive rebounds, pressuring the ball, and being coldly efficient on offense -- the Dolphins should take care of business.

Either way, I like the winner of tonight's game to beat the ETSU-Belmont survivor pretty solidly tomorrow.

Prediction -- Tonight, the magic dies. Lipscomb runs up against the deepest team in the field, gives it a valiant go, and exits stage left. Jacksonville 75, Lipscomb 68.

Second Prediction -- A rested Jacksonville Dolphins team makes quick work of a bloodied ETSU squad to punch the dance ticket, winning by double digits going away. The Bucs get the conference's automatic NIT bid.

It's On

The game we've been waiting a year for is here at 6:30 tonight.

Belmont-ETSU, or The Revenge of the Swader.

Belmont survived a scare against Mercer yesterday, squeaking through by one on a lay-up with 0.2 seconds left. ETSU has a full day's rest after knocking off Stetson Wednesday night. Both teams won 14 conference games this year and split head-to-head.

And none of that matters.

For ETSU, this game is all about Kenyona Swader, last year's senior whose technical foul in the final minute gave Belmont the lead. The rumor is he said something derogatory to Belmont's Andy Wicke during this exchange. As you can see in the video, after the T ETSU did not score again, and Belmont went on to the NCAA's where they gave Duke all they wanted.

As far as the match-up goes, I like ETSU's big three a lot. Pigram play best against the best opponents, and Smith and Tiggs are just plain good at basketball. Belmont is not as deep as they have been in the past, and with all the energy they spent surviving Mercer yesterday, they may not have the gas to go toe-to-toe again.

The one advantage Belmont has is experience. Wicke, Renfroe, House, and Dansby have all been here before, and in a meaningful capacity. What's more, they've won in this situation, knocking ETSU out three straight years.

Prediction -- The game itself is too close to call. I'm picking ETSU, but only because I think they will have better players on the floor at the end, and I like their chances of defending a last shot situation better than Belmont's. Not by much, but by enough to squeak by. ETSU 73, Belmont 72

Conference Tournament Preview, Day 2 (continued)

Lipscomb vs. Campbell

A battle of winning streaks happens in the nightcap, as Lipscomb puts an 8-game winning streak up against Campbell's five-game run. If I could only see one game in this tournament, I might pick this one, even over an ETSU-Belmont grudge match.

Lipscomb has the second-most-efficient offense in the conference, flowing through big man Adnan Hodzic. The biggest weakness in Lipscomb's game is how they do in close games. As I have written in this space before, Lipscomb has the talent to win, but doesn't close out games very well. They are 0-5 this year in games where the lead changes hands in the last 4 minutes of regulation. Since conference games tend to run close, this does not bode well for the Bisons.

On the other hand, one of Lipscomb's strengths is defending the interior and rebounding. Lipscomb leads the conference in defensive and total rebounds per game. The Bisons pull down almost 70% of opposition misses. Campbell's game, especially during this winning streak, has been Junard Hartley creating shots for Lorne Merthe outside and Jonathan Rodriguez inside. As J-Rod has become less of a one-man team and started to use Hartley and Merthe more, Campbell has become much harder to defend.

Prediction -- Lipscomb rides the crowd to an early lead, but Campbell stays in contact until Merthe gets warmed up. J-Rod has a huge night, but Lipscomb's defense clamps down on the supporting cast. A double-digit late lead is whittled away, but unlike last time the buzzer beater rattles out and Lipscomb hangs on. Lipscomb 73, Campbell 71

Conference Tournament Preview, Day 2

Belmont vs. Mercer

USC-Upstate did Belmont a huge favor last Thursday night. Their win over Mercer dropped the Bears into the six seed and bumped Campbell to fifth. Nothing against Mercer, but the Bruins match up much more favorably against the Bears than the Camels. Combine that with Campbell's five-game winning streak and they become a tough out.

Belmont features no-doubter Conference Player of the Year Alex Renfroe, and a solid supporting cast. About the only question mark Belmont faces going into the weekend is depth. The last three years the Bruins have been known for running 9-10 deep, each guy playing between 15 and 25 minutes. This year Belmont's bench is significantly shallower; the starting five all average over 27 minutes, with one bench guy at 15 and three more between 9 and 12.

That said, Mercer might give Belmont a chance to reserve some energy for ETSU. James Florence will take his shots, and Emerson will probably post a double-double, but with Mercer offensively it's feast or famine. Either Florence and Kuysner are hitting everything and Emerson is scoring inside, or nothing goes right. Defensively for Mercer it's mostly famine; they're the only team in the tournament to give up more than one point per possession.

Prediction -- Florence shoots his team out of the game early, then back into it late. Belmont's struggles at the free throw line keep it close, but not close enough. Belmont 77, Mercer 72

Conference Tourney Preview

Wednesday -- ETSU vs. Stetson.

This might be the best possible draw for ETSU. They get the Wednesday game, then they get the winner of Belmont-Mercer on short rest. Plus, Lipscomb and Campbell are both on the other side of the bracket. Stetson is limping into Allen Arena on a 4-game losing streak, and is one of only two teams in Division I to lose at home to North Florida. Ever.

That said, the Hatters and Bucs split their series this year, each winning in the other's building. Also, Stetson is not a team that will go down quietly; in the season finale against Campbell they rallied form a 27-5 first-half deficit to make the game close in the second half.

Prediction -- ETSU carries a 9-12 point lead through most of the second half. Stetson makes a late run, but comes up short. ETSU 71, Stetson 67

Post-Season Awards

I haven't run all the numbers yet, but based on what I've seen so far, here's my best guess on who should win:

1st Team All A-Sun:

Ben Smith, Jacksonville
Alex Renfroe, Belmont
Mike Smith, ETSU
Adnan Hodzic, Lipscomb
Kevin Tiggs, ETSU

2nd Team All A-Sun

Jonathan Rodriguez, Campbell
Matthew Dotson, Belmont
Lehmon Colbert, Jacksonville
Daniel Emerson, Mercer
Garfield Blair, Stetson

Honorable Mention All-Confernce -- TBA

Coach of the Year -- TBA

Outstanding Newcomer -- Daniel Emerson, Mercer

Player of the Year -- Alex Renfroe. Of the fifty best single-game PEGs in conference play, Renfroe had seven of them. The next-best was Mike Smith with four. Ben Smith was the best player on the best team, but Renfroe had the best year.

Defensive Player of the Year -- TBA

All-Defensive Team -- TBA

All-Freshman Team -- TBA

More to come as I have time to fill in more numbers.