It's On

The game we've been waiting a year for is here at 6:30 tonight.

Belmont-ETSU, or The Revenge of the Swader.

Belmont survived a scare against Mercer yesterday, squeaking through by one on a lay-up with 0.2 seconds left. ETSU has a full day's rest after knocking off Stetson Wednesday night. Both teams won 14 conference games this year and split head-to-head.

And none of that matters.

For ETSU, this game is all about Kenyona Swader, last year's senior whose technical foul in the final minute gave Belmont the lead. The rumor is he said something derogatory to Belmont's Andy Wicke during this exchange. As you can see in the video, after the T ETSU did not score again, and Belmont went on to the NCAA's where they gave Duke all they wanted.

As far as the match-up goes, I like ETSU's big three a lot. Pigram play best against the best opponents, and Smith and Tiggs are just plain good at basketball. Belmont is not as deep as they have been in the past, and with all the energy they spent surviving Mercer yesterday, they may not have the gas to go toe-to-toe again.

The one advantage Belmont has is experience. Wicke, Renfroe, House, and Dansby have all been here before, and in a meaningful capacity. What's more, they've won in this situation, knocking ETSU out three straight years.

Prediction -- The game itself is too close to call. I'm picking ETSU, but only because I think they will have better players on the floor at the end, and I like their chances of defending a last shot situation better than Belmont's. Not by much, but by enough to squeak by. ETSU 73, Belmont 72