Friday, March 6, 2009

And in the Other Game . . .

Jacksonville vs. Lipscomb

Jacksonville is the one-seed for a reason, mostly on the defensive end. Top to bottom, the Dolphins get after it on defense. They have very few weaknesses on that side of the floor. Plus, they have the most efficient offense in the conference, scoring more than 1.1 points per possession.

Lipscomb comes in on a roll, rattling off nine straight wins including victories over the top 3 seeds in the tournament. The Campbell game last night was easier than expected, so rest shouldn't be an issue. That said, the Jacksonville defense will be. Lipscomb runs one of the fastest offenses in the conference (only ETSU and Mercer are faster), but that only works if the shot actually goes up. If this game turns into a shoot-and-rebound contest, Lipscomb has a puncher's chance. But if Jacksonville does what it does well -- turning good shots into bad ones and bad shots into defensive rebounds, pressuring the ball, and being coldly efficient on offense -- the Dolphins should take care of business.

Either way, I like the winner of tonight's game to beat the ETSU-Belmont survivor pretty solidly tomorrow.

Prediction -- Tonight, the magic dies. Lipscomb runs up against the deepest team in the field, gives it a valiant go, and exits stage left. Jacksonville 75, Lipscomb 68.

Second Prediction -- A rested Jacksonville Dolphins team makes quick work of a bloodied ETSU squad to punch the dance ticket, winning by double digits going away. The Bucs get the conference's automatic NIT bid.

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