Thursday, March 5, 2009

Conference Tournament Preview, Day 2 (continued)

Lipscomb vs. Campbell

A battle of winning streaks happens in the nightcap, as Lipscomb puts an 8-game winning streak up against Campbell's five-game run. If I could only see one game in this tournament, I might pick this one, even over an ETSU-Belmont grudge match.

Lipscomb has the second-most-efficient offense in the conference, flowing through big man Adnan Hodzic. The biggest weakness in Lipscomb's game is how they do in close games. As I have written in this space before, Lipscomb has the talent to win, but doesn't close out games very well. They are 0-5 this year in games where the lead changes hands in the last 4 minutes of regulation. Since conference games tend to run close, this does not bode well for the Bisons.

On the other hand, one of Lipscomb's strengths is defending the interior and rebounding. Lipscomb leads the conference in defensive and total rebounds per game. The Bisons pull down almost 70% of opposition misses. Campbell's game, especially during this winning streak, has been Junard Hartley creating shots for Lorne Merthe outside and Jonathan Rodriguez inside. As J-Rod has become less of a one-man team and started to use Hartley and Merthe more, Campbell has become much harder to defend.

Prediction -- Lipscomb rides the crowd to an early lead, but Campbell stays in contact until Merthe gets warmed up. J-Rod has a huge night, but Lipscomb's defense clamps down on the supporting cast. A double-digit late lead is whittled away, but unlike last time the buzzer beater rattles out and Lipscomb hangs on. Lipscomb 73, Campbell 71

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