Conference auto-bids are based on my best guess as to who is most likely to win the conference tournament if it were played that weekend.
Likewise, at-large bids and seeds are based on what has happened so far. Consider them a snapshot of the standings as of the posting.
So here's this week's bracket. Enjoy:
| 1 | Syracuse | Ohio State | Kentucky | Baylor |
| 16 | MVSU/Texas-Arlington | UNC-Asheville/Stony Brook | Norfolk State | Weber State |
| 8 | Murray State | Alabama | Southern Miss | West Virginia |
| 9 | Iowa State | Memphis | Temple | Minnesota |
| 4 | Indiana | Georgetown | Wisconsin | Florida |
| 13 | Long Beach State | Oral Roberts | Cincinnati/Miami (FL) | Iona |
| 5 | Vanderbilt | Kansas State | Creighton | Florida State |
| 12 | BYU | Xavier | MTSU | Wyoming/LaSalle |
| 2 | North Carolina | Duke | Kansas | Michigan State |
| 15 | Belmont | Nevada | Wagner | Bucknell |
| 7 | California | Gonzaga | New Mexico | Wichita State |
| 10 | Illinois | Mississippi State | Connecticut | Seton Hall |
| 3 | Missouri | UNLV | Virginia | Marquette |
| 14 | Davidson | Ohio U | VCU | Cleveland State |
| 6 | San Diego State | Louisville | Michigan | St. Mary's |
| 11 | St. Louis | Purdue | Harvard | Texas |
IN: Miami (FL), LaSalle, Wyoming, Nevada (replaces New Mexico State)
OUT: North Carolina State, Dayton, Northwestern
Biggest Movers: New Mexico (+4), Vanderbilt (+3), West Virginia (-3), Connecticut (-3), Seton Hall (-5)
Top 10 Out: Oklahoma, South Dakota State, Northwestern, Stanford, Arkansas, Drexel, N. C. State, Colorado State, Massachusetts, Washington
By Conference: ACC 5, A-10 4, Big 10 8, Big East 8, Big 12 6, C-USA 2, Missouri Valley 2, Mountain West 4, SEC 5, West Coast 3
5 comments:
Is La Salle the A10 Autobid? If so they can't be in the opening round.
As of yesterday afternoon, LaSalle was the last team in the field. Given how closely bunched the last 6 or 7 in are with the first 6 or 7 out, all of this could change on a day-to-day basis.
How can you have Baylor as a 1 seed over Missouri and Kansas when it has lost head to head to each, and has the same record as Missouri?
Two words: sample size.
The long version: Head-to-head match-ups are (nearly) the last thing the committee considers. Comparisons are made with school names blacked out.
Plus, when I ran the numbers, the simulator gave Baylor the best shot at winning the conference tournament.
The really long version: When I was comparing teams across the Big XII to decide who I thought would get the autobid, I found myself trying to break (essentially) a three-way tie.
The commenter above is correct that Missouri would probably beat out Baylor head-to-head, but the tie I tried to untangle was Baylor, Missouri, and Kansas. And like with the Big XII South in football a few years ago, adding a third team to a tiebreaker mix can sometimes reverse a head-to-head outcome.
I was tempted to simply label them "Big XII 1," "Big XII 2," and Big XII 3," but you can't really do that if you're doing a bracket projection. So last week, Baylor was the last #1, Kansas was the top #2, and Missouri was the top #3.
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