Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- Selection Sunday FINAL BRACKET

Thank you to St. Bonaventure for making some of the ins and outs calls a bit easier.

Here you go:

1	Kentucky	North Carolina	Syracuse	Kansas
16	MVSU/Long Island	Western Kentucky/Vermont	Norfolk State	Lamar
8	St. Mary's	Texas	Virginia	Murray State
9	Purdue	Cincinnati	St. Louis	Alabama
4	Georgetown	Michigan	Florida	New Mexico
13	Davidson	Colorado	Belmont	South Dakota State
5	Kansas State	Vanderbilt	Memphis	Creighton
12	Miami (FL) / Xavier	Long Beach State	VCU	South Florida / Southern Miss
2	Duke	Missouri	Michigan State	Ohio State
15	UNC-Asheville	Loyola (MD)	Detroit	Lehigh
7	Iowa State	UNLV	Gonzaga	Temple
10	Connecticut	Notre Dame	West Virginia	California
3	Indiana	Wisconsin	Baylor	Marquette
14	St. Bonaventure	New Mexico State	Ohio U	Montana
6	Wichita State	Louisville	San Diego State	Florida State
11	Colorado State	BYU	N. C. State	Harvard

By conference: Big East 9, ACC 6, Big Ten 6, Big XII 6, Atlantic 10 4, Mountain West 4, SEC 4, West Coast 3, Conference USA 2, Missouri Valley 2, PAC 12 2.

Best teams out: Washington, Northwestern, Mississippi State, Drexel, Iona, MTSU, Seton Hall, Tennessee, Oral Roberts.

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 9, 2012

I give up.

I give up on trying to keep Colorado State out of the tournament. Even though their RPI is the only thing going for them, nobody else seems to want the spot. Washington and Northwestern are desperately trying to play their way out, Mississippi State actually did play their way out, and South Florida is still a byword for "style of play."

I am strongly tempted to put MTSU, Iona, and Drexel in just because.

But I know better. This is about guessing what the committee will do, not tellig them what they should do.

It's nice to be proven right about Miami. And watch out for N. C. State, Arizona, and Tennessee as potential bid thieves. The good news is that Xavier and Southern Miss are the only teams left in the "danger zone" who could potentially lose their way out.

Today's bracket -- not much change at the top. Some shuffling along the cut line -- Colorado State in, Mississippi State out, Washington and Northwestern into the PIG, South Florida (despite losing) into a 12 slot.

Here you go:

1	Kentucky	North Carolina	Syracuse	Kansas
16	MVSU/Long Island	Western Kentucky/Stony Brook	Norfolk State	Lamar
8	Texas	California	Murray State	Virginia
9	Purdue	San Diego State	St. Mary's	Alabama
4	Georgetown	Michigan	Florida	New Mexico
13	VCU	South Dakota State	Washington/Northwestern	Seton Hall/Xavier
5	Kansas State	Memphis	Creighton	Wichita State
12	Long Beach State	South Florida	Belmont	Harvard
2	Duke	Missouri	Michigan State	Ohio State
15	UNC-Asheville	Loyola (MD)	Detroit	Lehigh
7	Iowa State	Vanderbilt	Florida State	Gonzaga
10	Connecticut	Notre Dame	West Virginia	Cincinnati
3	Indiana	Wisconsin	Baylor	Marquette
14	Davidson	New Mexico State	Ohio U	Montana
6	UNLV	Louisville	St. Louis	Temple
11	Southern Miss	BYU	Colorado State	Miami (FL)

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 8, 2012

Slight change today, as I've put South Florida in over Iona.

As for Colorado State, one of the criteria I use is this: If this team were an autobid, where would I seed them? If I were giving Colorado State an autobid, based on what I've seen so far they'd be either the last 13 or the first 14, roughly comparable with Davidson or South Dakota State.

I know, I know. You're not supposed to worry about seeding until everybody has been selected. But still. If this is the one part of the selection process I get wrong, I can live with that. But I suspect that I'm less enamored of the RPI than some of the other folks doing brackets, and I think my approach mimics what the committee has been saying all year.

Through games of 3/7/12:

1	Kentucky	North Carolina	Syracuse	Kansas
16	MVSU/Long Island	Western Kentucky/Stony Brook	Norfolk State	Detroit
8	Texas	Murray State	California	Virginia
9	Purdue	San Diego State	St. Mary's	Alabama
4	Georgetown	Michigan	Florida	New Mexico
13	VCU	South Florida/Mississippi State	South Dakota State	Seton Hall/Xavier
5	Kansas State	Memphis	Creighton	Wichita State
12	Long Beach State	Belmont	Northwestern	Harvard
2	Duke	Missouri	Michigan State	Ohio State
15	UNC-Asheville	Loyola (MD)	Texas-Arlington	Lehigh
7	Iowa State	Vanderbilt	Florida State	Gonzaga
10	Connecticut	Notre Dame	West Virginia	Cincinnati
3	Indiana	Wisconsin	Baylor	Marquette
14	Davidson	New Mexico State	Ohio U	Montana
6	UNLV	Louisville	St. Louis	Temple
11	Washington	BYU	Southern Miss	Miami (FL)

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 7, 2012

Bubble Breakdown: (Last 5 in, first 5 out)

Arizona -- Out. Behind Colorado State, South Florida, N. C. State, Drexel, and MTSU. May well need an autobid to get in.

Colorado State -- Out, for now. First team out. They can get in if something good happens for them (beating SDSU would be a good start) or if something bad happens to a team currently in the field.

Drexel -- Out, for now. That said, if Colorado State, South Florida, and N. C. State all underwhelm this week, the last spot could come down to them, Iona, and maybe MTSU. At that point, it's rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock.

Iona -- In, but barely. #37 on the At-large list, but the tiniest of margins separates them from Drexel, the fourth team out. They're going to have to hope that everything -- and I mean EVERYTHING -- goes according to form this week. This is the slot that the committee is looking for a reason to give to somebody else.

Miami -- In. They're sitting at #33 in my at-large rankings, so barring a horrendous loss or more than one miracle run in the conference tournaments, they should feel safe. That said, losing to Georgia Tech would qualify as horrendous. 2 wins would make them untouchable.

Mississippi State -- In, for now. At-large #36. Beat Vandy, and they're in for sure. Lose to Georgia, and they're out for sure. Lose to Vandy, and their fate is in other people's hands.

N. C. State -- Out. Third team out, behind South Florida and Colorado State. Could easily switch places with one of them wit a win over UVa on Friday. Lose to BC and they're done.

Seton Hall -- In. At-large #34. A win over Louisville tonight should clinch it. Even with a loss, they still might get there.

South Florida -- Out. Second team out, behind Colorado State. The committee seems to want to do whatever it takes to avoid a repeat of last year's final, and punishing teams that "win ugly" may be how they do it. USF can force their hand, however, with a win over Notre Dame tomorrow.

Washington -- In as at-large #32. Even if they don't win the Pac 12 autobid (which I'm projecting to go to Cal), it would take a disaster to keep them out. Their seed line may not reflect it, but they're long way from being in danger. Then again, this is March. Weird stuff happens.

Xavier -- In, for now. At-large #35. Must beat Dayton to keep it, and making the A-10 finals would lock it up.

Bracket Update for today:

1	Kentucky	North Carolina	Syracuse	Kansas
16	MVSU/Detroit	Stony Brook/Western Kentucky	Norfolk State	Robert Morris
8	California	Alabama	Gonzaga	Virginia
9	Purdue	Murray State	Texas	Notre Dame
4	Kansas State	Georgetown	Michigan	Florida
13	South Dakota State	VCU	Mississippi State/Iona	Seton Hall/Xavier
5	Louisville	Creighton	New Mexico	Wichita State
12	Long Beach State	Northwestern	Washington	Harvard
2	Duke	Missouri	Michigan State	Ohio State
15	Lehigh	Texas-Arlington	Loyola (MD)	UNC-Asheville
7	Iowa State	Temple	Florida State	Saint Mary's
10	Connecticut	West Virginia	Cincinnati	San Diego State
3	Indiana	Wisconsin	Baylor	Marquette
14	Montana	Ohio U	New Mexico State	Davidson
6	Memphis	UNLV	Vanderbilt	St. Louis
11	Belmont	BYU	Southern Miss	Miami (FL)

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 5, 2012

Update for Tuesday.

In the half-dozen-or-so years I've been playing with this, I've seen stronger bubbles. I've also seen weaker bubbles. But I can't remember a bubble this tightly-packed.

Mississippi State is back in, but barely. A win over Georgia would make me feel a lot better about them.

Colorado State is still out, but (again) barely. They have a great chance to show me something in the MWC tournament. A win over SDSU would put them in. A loss to TCU would put them out. Something in between, and they're right in the mix. I mentioned in a comment earlier that this is the sort of situation where the committee likes to send a message -- in this case, that racking up a huge RPI is not necessarily a ticket-puncher.

Deciding between Iona, Drexel, USF, and Arizona for the last spot became essentially a random draw. I went with Iona on the strength of winning their conference regular season and the fact that USF tends to "win ugly." Not that that should matter, but I've heard "style of play" too often from committee interviews to discount it completely.

Top 10 Bubble Teams: Arizona, Drexel, N. C. State, Oregon, MTSU, South Florida, Colorado State, Oral Roberts, Saint Joseph's.

Bids by conference: ACC 5, A-10 3, Big 10 7, Big East 9, Big 12 6, C-USA 2, Metro 2 (for now), Mountain West 3, Pac 12 2, SEC 5, Valley 2, West Coast 3

Don't Get Too Comfortable -- Northwestern, Washington, Harvard, Miami (FL), Southern Miss, Long Beach State

1	Kentucky	North Carolina	Syracuse	Kansas
16	MVSU/Robert Morris	Stony Brook/North Texas	Norfolk State	Valparaiso
8	California	Alabama	Gonzaga	Virginia
9	Purdue	Murray State	Texas	Notre Dame
4	Kansas State	Georgetown	Michigan	Florida
13	South Dakota State	VCU	Mississippi State/Iona	Seton Hall/Xavier
5	Louisville	Creighton	New Mexico	Wichita State
12	Long Beach State	Northwestern	Washington	Harvard
2	Duke	Missouri	Michigan State	Ohio State
15	Lehigh	Texas-Arlington	Loyola (MD)	UNC-Asheville
7	Iowa State	Temple	Florida State	Saint Mary's
10	Connecticut	West Virginia	Cincinnati	San Diego State
3	Indiana	Wisconsin	Baylor	Marquette
14	Montana	Ohio U	New Mexico State	Davidson
6	Memphis	UNLV	Vanderbilt	St. Louis
11	Belmont	BYU	Southern Miss	Miami (FL)

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 2, 2012

Here's the latest. I'm finally sold on South Florida, at least enough to put them in the Zombie PIG slot. Still not convinced an RPI in the 20s is enough for Colorado State. Mississippi State is done. The model is picking South Dakota State to beat Oral Roberts in the Summit final. More commentary as time permits this weekend.

1	Kentucky	Syracuse	Kansas	Michigan State
16	MVSU/Lehigh	Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville	Norfolk State	Montana
8	Creighton	Temple	Florida State	Iowa State
9	San Diego State	Texas	Notre Dame	Murray State
4	Marquette	Michigan	Florida	Vanderbilt
13	MTSU	Arizona/Cincinnati	South Florida/Xavier	Iona
5	Wichita State	Memphis	New Mexico	Louisville
12	Northwestern	Harvard	Belmont	Long Beach State
2	Missouri	Duke	Ohio State	North Carolina
15	Ohio U	Cleveland State	Wagner	Texas-Arlington
7	Virginia	Alabama	Gonzaga	Purdue
10	West Virginia	St. Mary's	Washington	Connecticut
3	Wisconsin	Indiana	Georgetown	Baylor
14	New Mexico State	Davidson	South Dakota State	VCU
6	California	Kansas State	St. Louis	UNLV
11	Miami (FL)	Seton Hall	Southern Miss	BYU