Friday, March 2, 2012

Random Nerd Bracketology Update -- March 2, 2012

Here's the latest. I'm finally sold on South Florida, at least enough to put them in the Zombie PIG slot. Still not convinced an RPI in the 20s is enough for Colorado State. Mississippi State is done. The model is picking South Dakota State to beat Oral Roberts in the Summit final. More commentary as time permits this weekend.

1 Kentucky Syracuse Kansas Michigan State
16 MVSU/Lehigh Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville Norfolk State Montana
8 Creighton Temple Florida State Iowa State
9 San Diego State Texas Notre Dame Murray State
4 Marquette Michigan Florida Vanderbilt
13 MTSU Arizona/Cincinnati South Florida/Xavier Iona
5 Wichita State Memphis New Mexico Louisville
12 Northwestern Harvard Belmont Long Beach State
2 Missouri Duke Ohio State North Carolina
15 Ohio U Cleveland State Wagner Texas-Arlington
7 Virginia Alabama Gonzaga Purdue
10 West Virginia St. Mary's Washington Connecticut
3 Wisconsin Indiana Georgetown Baylor
14 New Mexico State Davidson South Dakota State VCU
6 California Kansas State St. Louis UNLV
11 Miami (FL) Seton Hall Southern Miss BYU

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your not convinced that Colorado State is in, but you have Connecticut that has only 5 wins in 2012 and 3-9 in last 12 games. Please explain

Ben Wiles said...

Colorado State's resume consists of an RPI in the 20s and . . . well . . . uh . . .

They do have a few good wins, but they're all at home. Their best road wins are at UTEP and Air Force.

In a nutshell, they're exactly the kind of team the committee uses to send a message. If you want to get in, win games away from home.

That said, with a win (or preferably two) in the MWC tournament, they can get there.

Another team in this kind of trouble is Cincinnati. I think they've done enough to get in, but they had a long, long way to come with their non-conference RPI.

Connecticut has two road wins (and one on a neutral court) against the Top 50, a not-horrible NCSOS, and a bunch of teams below them (Seton Hall & South Florida to name two from the Big East).