In the half-dozen-or-so years I've been playing with this, I've seen stronger bubbles. I've also seen weaker bubbles. But I can't remember a bubble this tightly-packed.
Mississippi State is back in, but barely. A win over Georgia would make me feel a lot better about them.
Colorado State is still out, but (again) barely. They have a great chance to show me something in the MWC tournament. A win over SDSU would put them in. A loss to TCU would put them out. Something in between, and they're right in the mix. I mentioned in a comment earlier that this is the sort of situation where the committee likes to send a message -- in this case, that racking up a huge RPI is not necessarily a ticket-puncher.
Deciding between Iona, Drexel, USF, and Arizona for the last spot became essentially a random draw. I went with Iona on the strength of winning their conference regular season and the fact that USF tends to "win ugly." Not that that should matter, but I've heard "style of play" too often from committee interviews to discount it completely.
Top 10 Bubble Teams: Arizona, Drexel, N. C. State, Oregon, MTSU, South Florida, Colorado State, Oral Roberts, Saint Joseph's.
Bids by conference: ACC 5, A-10 3, Big 10 7, Big East 9, Big 12 6, C-USA 2, Metro 2 (for now), Mountain West 3, Pac 12 2, SEC 5, Valley 2, West Coast 3
Don't Get Too Comfortable -- Northwestern, Washington, Harvard, Miami (FL), Southern Miss, Long Beach State
| 1 | Kentucky | North Carolina | Syracuse | Kansas |
| 16 | MVSU/Robert Morris | Stony Brook/North Texas | Norfolk State | Valparaiso |
| 8 | California | Alabama | Gonzaga | Virginia |
| 9 | Purdue | Murray State | Texas | Notre Dame |
| 4 | Kansas State | Georgetown | Michigan | Florida |
| 13 | South Dakota State | VCU | Mississippi State/Iona | Seton Hall/Xavier |
| 5 | Louisville | Creighton | New Mexico | Wichita State |
| 12 | Long Beach State | Northwestern | Washington | Harvard |
| 2 | Duke | Missouri | Michigan State | Ohio State |
| 15 | Lehigh | Texas-Arlington | Loyola (MD) | UNC-Asheville |
| 7 | Iowa State | Temple | Florida State | Saint Mary's |
| 10 | Connecticut | West Virginia | Cincinnati | San Diego State |
| 3 | Indiana | Wisconsin | Baylor | Marquette |
| 14 | Montana | Ohio U | New Mexico State | Davidson |
| 6 | Memphis | UNLV | Vanderbilt | St. Louis |
| 11 | Belmont | BYU | Southern Miss | Miami (FL) |
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