Go, Speed Racer, Go!

Click ahead to Picture #75 and #76.

Tomorrow Is The Big Day

The Clarksville Half-Marathon is tomorrow. I drove the course on my way home from packet pick-up. There are a few more hills than advertised, but not bad for the central part of Tennessee. I expect to take around 2 hours ad 45 minutes. I'll report back how it turns out.

World Series MVP?

Last night Hideki Matsui was named MVP of the 2009 World Series. And while 6 RBI in the clinching game is impressive, I think the voters kicked the call.

World Series' are defined by big moments. That's when memories are made, stories are told. And in the biggest moments of this year's Series, nobody came up bigger than . . .

Alex Rodriguez.

You heard me. Mr. Purple Lipstick, Mr. Lied to Katie Couric, Mr. Steroid Cheat Himself. When you look at the raw numbers, nobody contributed more to the Yankees' victory than Alex Rodriguez. In the big moments, he made the big plays.

Game 5, 1st Inning, 2 outs. Johnny Damon on first, Rodriguez doubles him home off Cliff Lee. Yankees lead 1-0 and nearly go on to a big inning. That hit was rated by Fangraphs.com as the 11th most important offensive play for the Yankees in the Series.

Game 3 4th Inning, 1 out, 1 on, Yankees trail 3-0. A-Rod goes deep off Cole Hamels, cutting the lead to 1 and sparking a comeback that woudl ultimately end with the Yankees winning 8-5. The home run was the 4th biggest play of the Series according to Fangraphs.

The number 1 play in the Series? 9th inning, Game 4. Game tied, runners at the corners. A-Rod facing Brad Lidge. Fangraphs gives this play a Leverage Index of 5 (very few games ever see a Leverage index higher than 2 or 2 1/2). Rodriguez doubles to the gap in left center, driving in Johnny Damon and setting up Jorge Posada to knock home two insurance runs with (oh, by the way) Mariano Rivera coming in to pitch the 9th. Yankees win, go up 3-1, and cruise to title #27.

With the Series on the line, A-Rod came through three times. M, V, and P.

Game 7?

I would love to see a Game 7 in this year's World Series. But for that to happen, Pedro Martinez has to win tonight.

Is it worth it? I'm just not sure . . .

Yards and Yards

Yesterday, I overheard Erica & Katie singing "Yards and Yards of Yellow Yarn."

Ah, Electric Company. Good times -- a very long time ago.

Summer Schedule Shortened (Again)

Todd County schools are out for the rest of this week because of flu, then all of next week for Fall Break. of course, those four days will have to be made up. And of course, they will be tacked on to the end of the school year.

A "regular" summer vacation generally only runs 60 days. Knock a week off that total for the flu, and that leaves 7 1/2 weeks for Gospel Meeting, VBS, and camp, plus everybody's family vacations.

If it snows at all this winter, that'll be even more days.

I hope our public schoolers enjoy this unscheduled vacation, because come summer there won't be much left.

Back in the Bloggity

Now that the SHC and park soccer season is behind me, I can get back here more often. No promises, but still.

The half-marathon training is still going. Today I did 5 miles in 1:06:21.5. Not exactly blazing speed, but I guess it'll do for now. My next goal is to get my five-mile time under 1 hour.

I ran in the Elkton 5K on Saturday, finishing in 37:39, good for second in the 35-39 age group.

Two. Why do you ask?

I'm finding that distance running is not so much about physical endurance or stamina as it is about will. The physical slog is one thing, but for me the mental side is what's really hard. By November 7, I need the mental and emotional stamina to put up with running pain for 2 1/2 to 3 hours. Today I was able to sustain race pace for right at 30 minutes.

I'm also finding that a mixture of hard running and recovery walking works much better for me than straight jogging. That's probably a soccer thing; center refereeing requires more "sprint and stop" than "steady run." I don't know if that's what the professional trainers recommend, but it works for me, so there you go.

Way To Go, NCAA. You've Done It Again

You have got to be kidding me.

The NCAA gets publicly embarrassed by USC and Memphis, so they bring the hammer down on Southeast Missouri State?

Really?

This is starting to get ridiculous.

Offside or not offside?

So, soccer fans, here's a quiz on soccer's most misunderstood rule.

Correct answers are in white, so drag your mouse to see them.

1. Player A9 is standing next to the goalie, completely behind the defense. Player A4 shoots. Ball goes in. Ruling: Not offside. Flag down. Goal is good. The player in the offside position wasn't involved in the play.

2. Same scenario as above, but player A4's shot bounces off the post to player A9, who puts it in. Ruling: Offside. A ball off the post, or the referee, or a bump in the ground has the same effect as a direct pass.

3. Same scenario as above, but this time the shot ricochet's off the goalie instead of the post. Ruling: Offside. If the goalie got control of the ball and played it to the offensive player, that's one thing. If, as in this case, "the ball played him," the force of the play came from an offensive teammate. Offside.

4. Same scenario as 2 & 3, only this time the shooter was closer to the goal line than his teammate (a 2-on-1 against the goalie). Ruling: Not offside. When the ball was struck, the second attacking player was behind the ball.

5. On a long clearing ball, two offensive players give chase. One was in an offside position when the ball was kicked. The other wasn't.

Do you rule offside? -- That depends. If the offside player plays the ball before his teammate plays it legally, the flag goes up.

When do you decide? -- Wait until you see the outcome of the play. Give the legal player every chance to make a legal play. If his offside teammate beats him to the ball, flag up.

If it turns out to be offside, where is the restart? -- The spot of an offside infraction is where the offending player involved himself with the play, NOT NECESSARILY where the last field defender was standing. If you find yourself in this spot, go ahead and run with the play, since the position of the defense is immaterial.

If you're nice, I might put some more up later.

Exciting Night Tonight

Tonight I get to throw out the first pitch at the Bowling Green Hot Rods game.

My Three Meetings with Don Meyer

Last week, former Lipscomb basketball coach Don Meyer was given the Jim Valvano Courage Award by ESPN. Coach Meyer recovered from a pre-season car crash and cancer diagnosis to lead the Northern State Wolves to an 18-win season. Win #11 was Coach Meyer's 903rd, one more than Bob Knight's all-time men's college basketball record of 902.

MomofTwins went to school with two of the Meyer daughters, Brooke & Brittney, so she knows the family better than I do. I only met Coach Meyer three times during my time at Lipscomb. If he remembers any of them I'd be surprised, but then again the capacity of Lipscomb Nation to remember its own never ceases to amaze me.

The first time I met Coach Meyer I was a new kid on campus. I had just transferred from Harding (long story), and had some ideas about how some of what Harding did with its intramurals could be used at Lipscomb. They had just hired a new Intramural director, Scott Grissom, so I dropped by his office to talk. Before long, Scott introduced me to his boss, Andy Lane (another great guy with a prodigous memory for names and faces. My first time on campus in five years was a basketball game this February. Andy Lane saw me, said hello, and asked about my kids by name. Dude.) Anyway, we talked in Andy's office for a few minutes and before long he's taking me around the athletic department introducing me to the folks who work there. Sherry Phillips I knew from church, but everybody else was new to me. On top of that, they were in the middle of their work days.

That's just the way Lipscomb people are.

One of the stops on our tour was the basketball office. Coach Bennett was out, but that afternoon I met Sherri Eubanks, Mike Roller, and Don Meyer. Coach Meyer was courteous, but he was not chatty. The coaches were going over some of the finer points of a defensive scheme I vaguely recognized as a form of match-up zone, and since I had nothing to add to the conversation, I sat and listened for a while, then Andy and I resumed the tour. My first impression (later confirmed when I would be walking through the upstairs of the gym during basketball practice) was that Coach Meyer was very focused, very determined, and very good at what he did.

That, and the only thing harder than beating Coach Meyer is distracting him.

The following season a friend of mine asked me to ride along to Lady Bisons road games to make game film. One night on our way to Martin Methodist, we stopped for he pregame meal at a nearby restaurant. This trip was a little bit unusual because the men's and women's teams travelled together. Coach Meyer drove his own car, but since the teams were on the same bus we all ate at the same place. I sat down with one of the womens' team student-assistants. Coach Meyer was at a different table, but nearby. Now ordinarily I'm a wallflower anyway, so it takes one to know one. That said, I have never seen anyone in my life try harder to blend into the background of a social situation than Coach Meyer on gameday.

Understand, these are not the observations of a long-term acquaintence, just someone who crossed his path on two random days -- one in mid-September, one in early February. Also understand, this is not criticism. As a preacher, I face "gameday" every Sunday, and I'm often just as focused, just as hard to distract. When I'm "on the clock," I'm giving everything I have -- so much so that if something happens on a Sunday I probrbaly won't remember it unless I write it down.

That said, there was one more occasion where Coach Meyer's path crossed mine. I had just graduated from Lipscomb maybe six weeks earlier. My sister, a starter on what would be a state-runner-up basketball team, was coming to Coach Meyer's Bison Basketbal Camp. She, my mom, and one of her teammates were driving from Florence, SC to Nashville, and were coming over Monteagle Mountain in the rain when something caused her car to begin to slide. Another car hit hers on the drivers side. The resulting injuries weren't serious, but they were enough to keep my sister and her friend from playing that week.

My sister spent the week recuperating at a friend's house in Nashville. This friend's dad worked at Lipscomb, and eventually word got back to Coach Meyer about what had happened. So Sunday afternoon we're sitting in this friend's parents living room, and Coach Meyer's car appears in the driveway. He and one of his coaching colleagues came to see my sister. The visit lasted about 45 minutes, Coach Meyer and me wall-flowering while the other coach and my mom had a nice chat.

My mom is one of those people. If she ever ran across that coach again, she'd probably ask about his kids by name.

What was impressive about the visit was not what Coach Meyer said, or more to the point what he didn't say, but the fact that he was there. This was camp registration day, likely the busiest day of the year from a paperwork and people-coordination standpoint. If there were ever a day when there were details to look after, this was it. But the one detail Coach Meyer wasn't going to let slip was coming to see a camper who wasn't going to get to play.

He put people before paperwork.

Even more impressive was that during the visit even Mr. Socially Inept Me could see how uncomfortable Coach Meyer was. Those close to him say Coach Meyer is the type who loves to do what he is good at, but making conversation with peple he doesn't know well is not one of his strongsuits. Yet in spite of his discomfort, in spite of everything else that had to be done that day, he knew that he could do some good just by showing up.

So he did.

In the last year, people who have spent a lot of time around Coach Meyer have expressed how much they love him. I can see why. Coach Meyer himself has also talked about how his injuries and illness have given him an opportunity to express to those same folks how much he loves them. For his sake, I'm glad he has found his voice enough to say these things out loud.

But if my three, random encounters with Coach Meyer are indicitave of the way he has lived the rest of his life, my suspicion is that deep down in their hearts, the folks hearing these words from Coach Meyer for the first time aren't hearing anything they didn't already know.

I Don't Want To Be A Millionaire

"I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and ***** it, people like me."

Just not enough to put me on TV to try to win a million dollars.

The last time I tried out for Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, the best part of the audition was the standing in line.

Seriously.

The test was recycled -- I got several right just by reviewing old show questions. I passed the knowledge test, but missed the "how willing are you to put up with our attitude?" question. Not willing enough, apparently. From the AP who brought me into the test room, to the test coordinator guy, to the absolute zoo of the interview room, it looked like everybody working there had gotten out of bed entirely too early to do a job they hated.

And part of the process of getting on the show is, from what I've been told, catching the right AP in a good mood.

Sorry. Not for me.

If you want to go on the show, and even if you manage to get into the chair opposite Regis or Meredith, I'll be glad to be a phone-a-friend. My Google-Fu is powerful, grasshopper.

Just don't ask me to be a contestant. It's just not worth it.

Marathon Update

Marathon training is on hold for a while. The intestinal infection will need a 30-day course of antibiotics to clear up. While I'm on the medicine, I'm supposed to avoid anything that might strain a tendon, and any prolonged exposure to direct sunlight. Since on the best of days I start to lobster up after about 15 minutes, and since "running" is at the top of the list of "things that can injure a weak tendon," I'm going to have to be down for the next month or so.

We'll try again in August.

Don't Blame Me . . .

I voted for Bryan the Shark.

The girls liked Corky, the Tennis Ball on a Stick.

MomofTwins, however, is all about the pig. Front runner.

I know, I know. A house divided. The scandal of it all!

Oh, and Mr. TV Man, the next time somebody tries to sell you a script about a planet-killing rock careening toward Earth with the promise "It'll be great!" . . . don't. Just, don't. Please. I don't care how big the names are in your cast, or how "new and original" your story concept might be.

Don't. Just don't.

USA 2-3 (or 4) Brazil

Interesting couple of games for the U. S. at Confederations Cup. Against Spain, they are out-chanced 25-11 but come away with a 2-0 win. Then, against Brazil, they give up 39 scoring chances while mustering only 13 and nearly escape with another win, falling 3-2.

A "scoring chance" is defined as a ball that goes over the end line (goal kick, corner, kick, or goal), a PK, or play called back as offside. At the Confederations Cup, scoring chances turned into goals about one time in 10. (41 out of 416, with stats not available for Iraq-New Zealand and USA-Egypt).

4 goals on 24 chances is quality finishing. Only giving up 3 goals against 64 chances is solid defense and breath-taking goalkeeping. The problem is in the midfield, where those chances are created and allowed. If you're giving the two best teams in the world 64 chances to score, the odds of holding them down for two games are slim indeed. If the U. S. wants to compete seriously for the World Cup, the midfield is where they will have to get better. A lot better. And fast.

And yes, USA fans, the ball off the underside of the bar was all the way in before Howard cleared it. That's a goal Brazil should have had.

Clarksville Half-Marathon

Yes, I'm planning to enter the Clarksville Half-Marathon in November.

See the updates on the left side of the page to keep track of my training.

The Stolen Base and the Non-Standard Jeopardy Wager

Over on the Jeopardy message boards, a user raised an interesting point regarding Monday night's game. If a non-standard FJ wager from the lead increases a player's chances of winning, even slightly, why do leaders not play the gambit more often?

Seattle Mariners fans have been asking themselves that question for years.

Ichiro Suzuki may be the best hit-it-and-run-type baseball player we've seen since the demise of the Negro Leagues. In 8 1/2 years in the majors, he has averaged 230 hits and 110 runs every 162 games, with almost as many triples as HRs. He is also one of the game's best base stealers, landing safely over 80% of the time.

But for as often as he gets to first base, and as good as he is at stealing second, he almost never tries it. Ichiro has stood on first base over 2100 times, but has only tried to steal second just under 400 times.

Part of the equation is risk and reward. In baseball, moving up one base makes it easier for your teammates to bat you around, but to get that base you take a chance on being thrown out. The Baseball Prospectus people say that in today's offensive environment, to make base stealing worth the risk, a player has to be successful over 70% of the time. Thus, for most players, frequent base stealing is counterproductive.

Most players, however, are not Ichiro.

Another consideration is game situation. Ichiro is more likely to run in the late innings of close games, or when he has a chance to give his team a quick, early lead. In the middle of games, or late in blowouts, he's probably not going.

That said, even when the game is on the line, the odds are about 3.6 to 1 against seeing Ichiro take off.

I suspect there might be a connection between why Ichiro doesn't run any more than he does and why even the most wagering-savvy players don't use gambits more often. Like the stolen base, the non-standard wager is most effective when it is deployed selectively. Even in situations where a non-standard wager optimizes one's chances of winning a particular match, there is a case to be made for a "mixed strategy," as even the best-laid formulae of mice and men can succomb to dumb luck. Plus, the decision to use a non-standard wager can also be influenced by a "read" -- either of the FJ category or the behavior of the other player(s). Some people are better than others at diving another person's intentions by their body language, just as some base runners are better than others at "reading" the pitcher.

For the record, I agree that non-standard wagers should be made more often than they are. I also think Ichiro should run more. But if you're a Jeopardy hopeful, and you want to make non-standard wagering part of your tool-kit on game day, make absolutely sure you know what you're doing, because there is a significant risk to it.

After all, they don't call it "Jeopardy" for nothing.

U. S. Open

Good luck to Kennesaw State junior golfer Matt Nagy as he tees offf in the U. S. Open tomorrow.

The New Guy

A few thoughts on the new late-night TV talk show regime:

-- There's a reason Conan O'Brien's Late Night show took off after Andy Richter left.
-- The String Dance is still funny. And yes, I am an infant.
-- The funniest human being in late night is Craig Ferguson. Last night he did TMBG's "Istanbul" in the show intro. I'm not sure if I laughed harder at that, or the Britney Spears thing, or the goat song from Sound of Music. And that's just the intro. (Hey, I'm an infant. I have a thing for puppets.)
-- Ferguson also has the best monologue in the business. No surprise there; he's been a stand-up comedian for twenty years. Letterman is better at the scripted bits, but nobody is better night in and night out up front that Ferguson.
-- I keep waiting for Letterman to throw me off his lawn.
-- According to people who have seen Leno on TV and in person, on TV Leno "pretends to be dumber and less funny that he really is." I really hope that's true.
-- Leno reminds me of one of those insipid "Spirit Rock" radio stations that bills itself as "safe for the whole family." OK, but what fun is that?
-- Jimmy Fallon just isn't funny. It's not for lack of effort, but that may be the problem. He needs to "try easier." If you go looking for the funny, it will hide forever. Let the funny come to you.
-- Jimmy Fallon may also need some better writers. One thing Leno and Conan are both known for is surrounding themselves with genuinely funny people. Most of the funny people Fallon knows are either SNL alums or the cast of 30 Rock.
-- Fallon would be well-advised to take a page from Ferguson's play-book. Let the viewers in. Fallon tries so hard to be "interactive" with his audience, but it seems forced. Show us who you are. Give us a reason to like you.
-- Fallon's two best moves so far have been "Seventh Floor West" and having Drew Barrymore as a guest. Drew knows him well enough to bring out his personality. I'm sure there is one in there somewhere.
-- Jimmy Kimmel is stuck in time-slot purgatory. Here he doesn't come on until 11:30, so his monologue has to go head-to-head against Ferguson. No contest. In most of the country he comes on at the top of the hour, after Nightline. For starters, with Nightline as a lead-in he's not going to get too terrible much audience. Plus, most folks have settled into Conan or Letterman by then.
-- Hulu has introduced me to Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert. Being on cable gives them liberties -- both with language and more importantly with content -- that network guys just don't have.

My own personal Top 5 Hosts:

1. Craig Ferguson
2. Jon Stewart (far and away the best interviewer)
3. Steven Colbert
4. Conan O'Brien
5. David Letterman

Top 3 Announcers:

1. Alan Kulter
2. Shadoe Stevens
3. Higgins

HNORABLE MENTION -- Don Pardo. His Jeopardy legacy notwithstanding, he showed the new guys how it's done week in and week out on SNL. Enjoy your retirement, Don.

Top 3 Bands/Bandleaders:

1. Max Weinberg & The Tonight Show Band
2. Cleto & the Cletones
3. The Roots

Top 5 Gimmicks:

1. Craig Ferguson's show intros
2. Triumph the Insult Comic Dog
3. The Word
4. Fun Facts
5. John Oliver on anything British

Lipscomb is #11 in the country . . .

. . . when it comes to abusing pitchers.

In Lipscomb's 56 baseball games this year, the starting pitcher threw over 120 pitches seven times. In the A-Sun, only Campbell was more abusive of its starters (7 120+ pitch-count games out of 51 played).

In 2008, Lipscomb ranked 11th in the country in Pitcher Abuse Points, going over 120 pitches a mind-boggling 16 times and twice breaking the 130 mark. In the same category last year, USC-Upstate ranked 15th in the country, piling up 12 120-pitch starts.

Get Lipscomb Out of the NCAA, Part II

Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Now we find out that Memphis probably used an ineligible player during its 2008 run to the Final Four. If the allegations are proven, Memphis will have to forfeit all 38 wins that year, including their Title Game appearance.

This would also be the second time that John Calipari was forced to modify his resume.

Yet like Kelvin Sampson before him, on goes Calipari to another big-time program. No consequences. No financial penalties. No expectations other than that he'll cheat for his new team, too.

And Lipscomb is proud of its association with big-time college athletics? Really?

Spelling Bee Thursday

Wow. Round 5 was a bloodbath.

Two of my favorites -- Talmadge Nakamoto, who lists his fafvorite movie as "The Princess Bride" and Alex Wells of San Diego with the hair and the mustache -- missed the Top 11. Alex was felled in the Round 5 Massacre (dansant); Talmadge survivied but went down in Round 6 (caliche).

TV tonight will feature two of the favorites (Shivishankar and Chand) plus 3-timers Kyle Mou, Aishwarya Pastapur, Kennyi Aouad, and Neetu Chandak. Only four of the remaining 11 are rookies.

Watching the Spelling Bee

Calling it now -- at least one California kid is going to be on TV Friday night. 15 spellers in, and the difference in confidence between the California kids and the rest is palpable.

And wow. I just saw the kid from San Diego. I hope he gets there, just for the mustache factor.

Of course, it's way too early. And we're only seeing them facing one word out of the 27 they are being scored on. They have already taken a 50-word test worth 25 points. The words they're spelling now are worth 3 points each. The top 50 scorers (out of 293) advance to the TV semifinals tomorrow.

Canada is up now. Stay tuned.

UPDATE -- End of the third quarter. The oral round is scoring at about an 83% clip. I'm guessing (not unreasonably, I don't think) that the written round averaged about 84%. Based on those probabilities, 43 kids out of 293 will score 29 or higher. That only leaves seven spots for somebody who missed one in the oral round, provided they aced the written test.

It's the National Spelling Bee. The margin for error is very, very slim.

UPDATE AGAIN -- Another interesting stat: Kids who have been to the Spelling Bee at least once are 122-for-134 (91%) in the oral rounds, while newcomers are 343-for-419 (81%) so far. Spellers on their third or fourth national bee are a combined 35-for-36, or 97.2%.

MY PICK -- Kavia Shivashankar of Olathe, Kansas. If experience counts, this could be her year. This is her fourth finals, and she has 3 top-10 finishes already. No other speller in the field has placed in the top 25 more than once. Watch out also for defending-runner-up Sidharth Chand and last year's 10-th place finisher Kyle Mou.

Bee Week

The National Spelling Bee is this week. Live streaming starts tomorrow on ESPN 360, with semifinals on Thursday and the championship Friday night.

The first academic competition I ever won was a spelling bee in first grade. I won the school-wide fourth grade spelling bee even though I was only in fourth grade for the last six weeks of the year. I never got to compete at the highest levels, but that's probably for the best. I'm insufferable enough as it is.

Craig Ferguson Intro, May 18

This is just really, really wrong.

I laughed for several minutes. Hard.

Your Move, NCAA

So here it is. The gauntlet is thrown down.

Whether or not I watch college football or basketball next year will depend on what the NCAA does with USC.

Are you listening, Lipscomb? Belmont? Mid-majors? Are you listening, ESPN? Kyle Whelliston? Are you listening, CBS? Coca-Cola? Pontiac?

The O. J. Mayo & Reggie Bush stories embody everything that is wrong about college sports. USC needs to be a scapegoat, a warning. The message the NCAA sends in the USC case will tell me and fans like me whether they take themselves seriously enough to enforce their own rules.

And if they don't, I'm done. With them and with any of their member institutions, conferences, and "corporate champions." When the NCAA is ready to have a fair competition on a level playing field, I'm right there.

It's time for the stakeholders -- member schools, sponsors, conferences -- to force the NCAA's hand. And if you're a fan of an NCAA school, it's time to you to stand up for the honest coaches and players who take fairness seriously.

Write your AD. Write your University President. Contact networks and sponsors. Tell them we've seen enough.

Your move, NCAA.

Coaching Change

Matt Kilcullen is out at North Florida. The new guy is former Baylor assistant Matthew Driscoll.

I don;t have any inside access, but I'm not really surprised at the move. North Florida hired a new AD this spring, and when that happens everything gets re-evaluated.

In terms of doing "the best you can with what you have," Kilcullen was the best in the conference this year. The catch, of course, is that in college basketball, "what you have" is what you recruit. Hopefully for Osprey fans, Driscoll will be able to give himself more to work with.

I'm Done

I've seen enough.

I usually enjoy college basketball, no matter who's playing, but last night . . . meh. It's not just that the games were bad (which they were). It's not just that I've been all but eliminated in our family bracket contest (which I am. My only hope is for North Carolina to win out, beating Villanova and anybody but Louisville in the process.)

There's simply nobody left to root for.

Gonzaga has long since left the days of "the glass slipper still fits." (Watch out, Western Kentucky. You're next.) Xavier is out. The Final Four has a realistic shot at looking like the Euro 2008 semis.

Cinderella has left the building.

I suppose I don't have anybody to blame but myself. I've read entirely too much about how the sausage that is college basketball is made. After eight years of trying, I've even gotten pretty good at predicting who will be seeded where. Sadly, since the advent of the one-and-done rule three years ago, it's become even easier to predict what's going to happen once the seed lines are drawn. George Mason was a once-in-a-lifetime fluke. Davidson was a one-man show; just look what happened when their one guy got hurt. Even little brother Curry is flying the coop at Liberty for bigger and better.

I knew all that. Kyle Whelliston's red line makes it pretty clear. The cool kids have come to take over the playground, and it's time for the oddballs to go home.

So fine. I'm leaving.

I'll probably be back next year. No promises -- unlike the NCAA's, life cannot always be rigged to produce the outcome we like. If something happens in the A-Sun between now and next October 15, I'll make a note of it. I'll probably check in around baseball & softball tournament time.

But for me, basketball season is over.

God bless.

NCAA Buzzer Beaters

To refresh -- a "buzzer beater" is a shot that is in the air with less than 1 second left, where if it goes in the score is tied or the shooters take the lead.

The only one to go in this year was in the Gonzaga-Western Kentucky game.

The last person to make one in the NCAA tournament was Travis Rogers of Western Kentucky last year against Drake.

So far this year the field is 2-for-9.

GOOD:

• Gonazaga over Western Kentucky on Demitri Goodson's lay-up with 0.9 seconds left.
• Scottie Reynolds of Villanova hits a runner with 0.5 left to beat Pittsburgh.

NO GOOD:

• Clemson missed a potential tying 3 against Michigan.
• VCU missed a 17-foot jumper against UCLA that would have won it.
• Tennessee missed a 3 at the buzzer that would have beaten Oklahoma State.
• Ohio State missed 3 buzzer-beaters against Siena. Two 3-pointers at the buzzer of regulation and the first overtime, and a contested jumper at the end of the second OT, all missed.
• Pittsburgh goes off the backboard from 75 feet at the horn against Villanova.
  

Stay tuned.

ETSU vs. Pittsburgh

Sorry to join midstream, but day jobs, real life, yadda yadda yadda.

Mike Smith is a beast. Kevin Tiggs had a nice alley-oop. Isaiah Brown has two fouls early. But the Bucs are hanging in there, mostly with drives to the hoop.

7 to go, first half -- ETSU just had a 4-on-1 breakaway denied by a shot clock violation. They didn't pick up the loose ball before the buzzer. Pitt by 1.

Kevin Tiggs is loving life right now. It's all Tiggs all the time offensively. Pigram is having a solid day defensively. Pitt is having their way on the glass, when they want to. Fortunately for ETSU, there are times when the Bucs want it more.

This is what ETSU needs to do -- Support Tiggs on offense. Rally around Pigram on the defensive end. Want the ball when the shot goes up. Keep Mike Smith on the floor as long as you can.

Final TV timeout of the half. Pitt by 2.

Eleven Pitt turnovers, plus a technical for hanging on the rim. Pitt still by 2, even though ETSU is not shooting well.

Weird play just now -- Pitt player bumps Hubbard into Smith, who was trying to shoot. Smith misses, and goes to the foul line. Not sure who the "victim" of the foul is in that spot. Checking with the officiating.com forum.

Halftime. Pitt 26, ETSU 23. Mike Smith was a fraction of a hair late on a shot at the buzzer that would have cut it to one. Great play, well executed.

ETSU is ready. Pitt is sluggish and sloppy. Look out.

Straight out of halftime Mike Smith for 3. Bottom.

Pigram is 2-for-11 now. Stay confident, kid. It'll happen. Just keep playing defense and let the offense come to you.

This is why ETSU is still in this game. Courtney Pigram with brilliant defense on a breakaway. Pitt misses twice, then Mike Smith gets back to tip the rebound clear.

Are you kidding me? Mike Smith making trouble in the low block. Mike Hamlin with the block. Courtney Pigram with the second-chance basket. Pitt sloppy against the ETSU press. ETSU ball, down 2 at the TV timeout. The crowd begins to believe.

You have to make the free throws. ETSU is 6-14 at the line. But they're only down 1, and their biggest deficit all night has been 6.

8:03 to go, Pitt by 5, ETSU ball. Mike Smith misses, then the teams trade 3's. Kevin Tiggs just kept the Bucs alive. Timeout.

Tommy Hubbard just fouled out. Both teams are absolutely exhausted. In most games of this type, this is the point where the 1-seed's depth becomes the deciding factor. When the shoes stop squeaking, things revert to seed form. But ETSU is only down 6. Under 5 to go.

Here we go. Brown scores, misses the FT. Pigram for 3 off the offensive rebound. Turnover. 59-57.

69-61, under a minute to go. DeJuan Blair has owned the last 3 minutes.

Ball game. Pitt 72, ETSU 62. Solid effort by the Bucs, but not quite enough. Tiggs had 21, Pigram had 17. Offensive rebounding was superb, but FT shooting was abysmal. The Bucs left 7 points on the floor with their misses at the line. All in all, a good effort. Not quite the scare Belmont gave Duke, but a solid performance.

They Might Be Grammy Winners -- Again

Congratulations to the coolest rock band ever on their second Grammy win. Best Children's Album on 2008 -- Here Come the 123's.

A-Sun Blog-et-ology

Edited on March 13, 6:20 p.m. -- A lot of stuff happened, and I found a fatal error in one of the pairings. Should be all fixed now.


Edited March 15, 8:30 a.m. -- Latest auto-bid updates

In case you missed it, ETSU beat Jacksonville to win the A-Sun title. This just in, Mike Smith is pretty good.

Here's my best guess at what a bracket might look like if the season ended today. Look for some changes on the 11 & 12 lines as the BCS tournaments play out. I'm putting ETSU in a 15-seed match-up with Louisville (edit 3/13: Oklahoma) in round one.

1 -- North Carolina
16 -- Alabama State/Chattanooga (PIG)
8 -- Tennessee
9 -- Ohio State
4 -- Villanova
13 -- North Dakota State
5 -- Xavier
12 -- USC
2 -- Oklahoma
15 -- ETSU
7 -- Marquette
10 -- Siena
3 -- Washington
14 -- Cornell
6 -- Purdue
11 -- Boston College

1 -- Pittsburgh
16 -- Morehead State
8 -- LSU
9 -- Texas A&M
4 -- UCLA
13 -- Northern Iowa
5 -- Clemson
12 -- Cleveland State
2 -- Michigan State
15 -- Robert Morris
7 -- Utah
10 -- Dayton
3 -- Kansas
14 -- Portland State
6 -- Florida State
11 -- Arizona

1 -- Connnecticut
16 -- Radford
8 -- California
9 -- Utah State
4 -- Gonzaga
13 -- Western Kentucky
5 -- Illinois
12 -- Virginia Commonwealth
2 -- Duke
15 -- Binghamton
7 -- Butler
10 -- Minnesota
3 -- Missouri
14 -- Akron
6 -- West Virginia
11 -- San Diego State

1 -- Memphis
16 -- Morgan State
8 -- Oklahoma State
9 -- Wisconsin
4 -- Syracuse
13 -- Stephen F. Austin/Texas Southern winner
5 -- BYU
12 -- Temple
2 -- Louisville
15 -- CS-Northridge
7 -- Texas
10 -- Michigan
3 -- Wake Forest
14 -- American
6 -- Arizona State
11 -- Florida (Mississippi State goes here with an SEC tournament title)

A-Sun Blog Post-Season Awards

Using a version of "win shares" modified for college basketball, here is the official Atlantic Sun Blog All-Conference Team.

1st Team:

Mike Smith (ETSU) 5.48 win shares
Alex Renfroe (BEL) 5.15
Ayron Hardy (JAX) 4.78
Kevin Tiggs (ETSU) 4.71
Daniel Emerson (MER) 3.79

Player of the Year -- Mike Smith, ETSU.

The conference vote went to Alex Renfroe, and anytime a player leads his team in points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks, and the team goes 14-6 and has a good look at the conference title on the last day, it's hard to argue. Of the 50 best individual performances this year, Renfroe had seven of them. When I started running the numbers, I honestly thought Renfroe would come out on top.

But then I looked at Mike Smith. And everywhere Renfroe was good, Smith was just a little better, especially in the stats that lead to wins.

Between the two, it was close. And as I said, Renfroe has a case. A look at the numbers, though, says it's not as open and shut a case as the voting might indicate.


2nd Team:

Bobby Davis (USCU) 3.45
Adnan Hodzic (DLU) 3.17
Marcus Allen (JAX) 3.16
Garfield Blair (STET) 3.08
Jonathan Rodriguez (CAM) 3.04

Honorable Mention (win shares totals of 2 or more)

BELMONT -- Matthew Dotson, Shane Dansby
CAMPBELL -- Junard Hartley
ETSU -- Mike Hamlin, Isaiah Brown
GULF COAST -- Derrick O'Neal
JACKSONVILLE -- Ben Smith (3.02 win shares, 11th overall), Lehmon Colbert
LIPSCOMB -- Josh Slater, Brandon Brown, Michael Lusk, Michael Teller
MERCER -- James Florence

All-Defensive Team (Defense win shares of 2 or more):

Mike Smith (ETSU) 3.11
Kevin Tiggs (ETSU) 2.64
Alex Renfroe (BEL) 2.30
James Florence (MER) 2.11
Garfield Blair (STET) 2.08

Yes, James Florence is one of the five best defenders in the conference. Ayron Hardy of Jacksonville, who was voted Defensive Player of the Year, was ninth in defensive win shares with 1.66. Ironically, Aryon Hardy was more of an asset to his team offensively, while James Florence was more of an asset of defense.

Outstanding Newcomer: Daniel Emerson, Mercer. This is a recording.

All-Freshman Team: TBA

Coach of the Year: Matt Kilcullen, UNF. Based on their statistical output, the Ospreys should have only won 2 games this conference season. They finished 6-14, four games better.

And in the Other Game . . .

Jacksonville vs. Lipscomb

Jacksonville is the one-seed for a reason, mostly on the defensive end. Top to bottom, the Dolphins get after it on defense. They have very few weaknesses on that side of the floor. Plus, they have the most efficient offense in the conference, scoring more than 1.1 points per possession.

Lipscomb comes in on a roll, rattling off nine straight wins including victories over the top 3 seeds in the tournament. The Campbell game last night was easier than expected, so rest shouldn't be an issue. That said, the Jacksonville defense will be. Lipscomb runs one of the fastest offenses in the conference (only ETSU and Mercer are faster), but that only works if the shot actually goes up. If this game turns into a shoot-and-rebound contest, Lipscomb has a puncher's chance. But if Jacksonville does what it does well -- turning good shots into bad ones and bad shots into defensive rebounds, pressuring the ball, and being coldly efficient on offense -- the Dolphins should take care of business.

Either way, I like the winner of tonight's game to beat the ETSU-Belmont survivor pretty solidly tomorrow.

Prediction -- Tonight, the magic dies. Lipscomb runs up against the deepest team in the field, gives it a valiant go, and exits stage left. Jacksonville 75, Lipscomb 68.

Second Prediction -- A rested Jacksonville Dolphins team makes quick work of a bloodied ETSU squad to punch the dance ticket, winning by double digits going away. The Bucs get the conference's automatic NIT bid.

It's On

The game we've been waiting a year for is here at 6:30 tonight.

Belmont-ETSU, or The Revenge of the Swader.

Belmont survived a scare against Mercer yesterday, squeaking through by one on a lay-up with 0.2 seconds left. ETSU has a full day's rest after knocking off Stetson Wednesday night. Both teams won 14 conference games this year and split head-to-head.

And none of that matters.

For ETSU, this game is all about Kenyona Swader, last year's senior whose technical foul in the final minute gave Belmont the lead. The rumor is he said something derogatory to Belmont's Andy Wicke during this exchange. As you can see in the video, after the T ETSU did not score again, and Belmont went on to the NCAA's where they gave Duke all they wanted.

As far as the match-up goes, I like ETSU's big three a lot. Pigram play best against the best opponents, and Smith and Tiggs are just plain good at basketball. Belmont is not as deep as they have been in the past, and with all the energy they spent surviving Mercer yesterday, they may not have the gas to go toe-to-toe again.

The one advantage Belmont has is experience. Wicke, Renfroe, House, and Dansby have all been here before, and in a meaningful capacity. What's more, they've won in this situation, knocking ETSU out three straight years.

Prediction -- The game itself is too close to call. I'm picking ETSU, but only because I think they will have better players on the floor at the end, and I like their chances of defending a last shot situation better than Belmont's. Not by much, but by enough to squeak by. ETSU 73, Belmont 72

Conference Tournament Preview, Day 2 (continued)

Lipscomb vs. Campbell

A battle of winning streaks happens in the nightcap, as Lipscomb puts an 8-game winning streak up against Campbell's five-game run. If I could only see one game in this tournament, I might pick this one, even over an ETSU-Belmont grudge match.

Lipscomb has the second-most-efficient offense in the conference, flowing through big man Adnan Hodzic. The biggest weakness in Lipscomb's game is how they do in close games. As I have written in this space before, Lipscomb has the talent to win, but doesn't close out games very well. They are 0-5 this year in games where the lead changes hands in the last 4 minutes of regulation. Since conference games tend to run close, this does not bode well for the Bisons.

On the other hand, one of Lipscomb's strengths is defending the interior and rebounding. Lipscomb leads the conference in defensive and total rebounds per game. The Bisons pull down almost 70% of opposition misses. Campbell's game, especially during this winning streak, has been Junard Hartley creating shots for Lorne Merthe outside and Jonathan Rodriguez inside. As J-Rod has become less of a one-man team and started to use Hartley and Merthe more, Campbell has become much harder to defend.

Prediction -- Lipscomb rides the crowd to an early lead, but Campbell stays in contact until Merthe gets warmed up. J-Rod has a huge night, but Lipscomb's defense clamps down on the supporting cast. A double-digit late lead is whittled away, but unlike last time the buzzer beater rattles out and Lipscomb hangs on. Lipscomb 73, Campbell 71

Conference Tournament Preview, Day 2

Belmont vs. Mercer

USC-Upstate did Belmont a huge favor last Thursday night. Their win over Mercer dropped the Bears into the six seed and bumped Campbell to fifth. Nothing against Mercer, but the Bruins match up much more favorably against the Bears than the Camels. Combine that with Campbell's five-game winning streak and they become a tough out.

Belmont features no-doubter Conference Player of the Year Alex Renfroe, and a solid supporting cast. About the only question mark Belmont faces going into the weekend is depth. The last three years the Bruins have been known for running 9-10 deep, each guy playing between 15 and 25 minutes. This year Belmont's bench is significantly shallower; the starting five all average over 27 minutes, with one bench guy at 15 and three more between 9 and 12.

That said, Mercer might give Belmont a chance to reserve some energy for ETSU. James Florence will take his shots, and Emerson will probably post a double-double, but with Mercer offensively it's feast or famine. Either Florence and Kuysner are hitting everything and Emerson is scoring inside, or nothing goes right. Defensively for Mercer it's mostly famine; they're the only team in the tournament to give up more than one point per possession.

Prediction -- Florence shoots his team out of the game early, then back into it late. Belmont's struggles at the free throw line keep it close, but not close enough. Belmont 77, Mercer 72

Conference Tourney Preview

Wednesday -- ETSU vs. Stetson.

This might be the best possible draw for ETSU. They get the Wednesday game, then they get the winner of Belmont-Mercer on short rest. Plus, Lipscomb and Campbell are both on the other side of the bracket. Stetson is limping into Allen Arena on a 4-game losing streak, and is one of only two teams in Division I to lose at home to North Florida. Ever.

That said, the Hatters and Bucs split their series this year, each winning in the other's building. Also, Stetson is not a team that will go down quietly; in the season finale against Campbell they rallied form a 27-5 first-half deficit to make the game close in the second half.

Prediction -- ETSU carries a 9-12 point lead through most of the second half. Stetson makes a late run, but comes up short. ETSU 71, Stetson 67

Post-Season Awards

I haven't run all the numbers yet, but based on what I've seen so far, here's my best guess on who should win:

1st Team All A-Sun:

Ben Smith, Jacksonville
Alex Renfroe, Belmont
Mike Smith, ETSU
Adnan Hodzic, Lipscomb
Kevin Tiggs, ETSU

2nd Team All A-Sun

Jonathan Rodriguez, Campbell
Matthew Dotson, Belmont
Lehmon Colbert, Jacksonville
Daniel Emerson, Mercer
Garfield Blair, Stetson

Honorable Mention All-Confernce -- TBA

Coach of the Year -- TBA

Outstanding Newcomer -- Daniel Emerson, Mercer

Player of the Year -- Alex Renfroe. Of the fifty best single-game PEGs in conference play, Renfroe had seven of them. The next-best was Mike Smith with four. Ben Smith was the best player on the best team, but Renfroe had the best year.

Defensive Player of the Year -- TBA

All-Defensive Team -- TBA

All-Freshman Team -- TBA

More to come as I have time to fill in more numbers.

And Down the Stretch They Come

With the last weekend of conference play looming, absolutely nothing is settled. Depending on how things go, every team in the conference can move as many as two conference tournament seed lines. The only exceptions are Campbell and Stetson, who are playing for the six seed.

Not to go all NFL on you, but here are the conference championship scenarios:

Jacksonville -- Win at Lipscomb OR Win at Belmont. This eliminates ETSU, and Jacksonville wins all tiebreakers with Belmont by virtue of Lipscomb finishing with a better conference record than Campbell.

Belmont -- Win vs. Jacksonville AND Lipscomb win vs. Jacksonville. For Belmont to win the conference title, they need to be tied with Jacksonville going into Saturday's game.

ETSU -- Win vs. Kennesaw AND Win vs. Mercer AND North Florida win at Belmont AND Lipscomb win vs. Jacksonville AND Belmont win vs. Jacksonville. ETSU's only hope is to get into a three-way tie with Jacksonville and Belmont at 14-6. If they do, they win because they would have a season sweep over Mercer while Jacksonville's best sweep would be Stetson and Belmont's would be Campbell. In that scenario, the outcome of the Stetson-Campbell game would determine who gets the 2 seed (and the Wednesday quarterfinal) and who ends up third.

This year, winning the conference title is huge, because you get both an automatic invite to the NIT even if you lose in the conference tournament, PLUS you get a bye into the semifinals, meaning you don't have to play until Friday. The 2-seed plays the seven Wednesday night, while 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5 happen Thursday.

While another Battle of the Boulevard might be fun, what I would really love to see is a Belmont-Campbell rematch. Seriously, that comeback was ridiculous.

Player of the Week -- Eni Cuka gets the nod from the conference office. Now understand three things: 1) I love North Florida. The whole idea of a knock-down, drag-out, team-wide road trip chess tournament is just too awesome for words. 2) I like the idea of limiting "Player of the Week" to teams that won both games. I disagree with the policy but I appreciate the sentiment behind it. 3) I am typically critical of players who pad their own stats at the expense of the team.

That being said, this is the week to give James Florence the POW. He rallied his team from a 25-point first-half deficit against Lipscomb to get within 5 in the second half. He may have been a one-man team, but that night he was all Mercer had working, and ended up with a 29 PEG. Then he posts another team-leading PEG of 22 in a huge win against Belmont -- a win which, by the way, keeps Mike Smith and ETSU alive for the conference title.

Weird Stat -- Belmont and Kennesaw State played a 57-possession game last week. Both teams average over 73 per game.

I'll be at the Lipscomb-North Florida double-header Saturday. I've been promising Erica a trip to a basketball game, and I wanted to find one where I could let her root for the home team. ;) Stop by and say hi if you're in the neighborhood.

Four Wins in Eight Days . . .

is hard to do.

This week (sorry, week and a day), Lipscomb did exactly that. Two wins by 5 points over conference leaders surrounded by comfortable wins over Campbell and Gulf Coast. Belmont and Jacksonville are on top now, with ETSU a game back. Lipscomb is back to .500. Mercer has won 5 in a row to pull within 2 games of first place. Campbell continues to defy all explanation, losing to UNF and beating Jacksonville on the same road trip.

Game of the Week -- I'm always partial to the Battle of the Boulevard, but Belmont's best game came two nights later against ETSU. With the conference lead on the line, the Bruins rallied from 11 down with a 16-2 second half run to win 76-73. ETSU had three shots in the final minute to tie or take the lead, but nothing fell. In the unexpected ending of the week, Stetson had a working margin on Mercer for most of the game, up 15 with 9 1/2 to go, but the Bears outscored the Hatters 23 to 6 over the next 9 minutes to take their first lead. Stetson tied it up, but the overtime was all Mercer.

Player of the Week -- Adnan Hozdic of Lipscomb got the nod from the conference office. And having the biggest impact on the conference's hottest team (33 PEG vs. Belmont, 23 PEG vs. Upstate) is a good case. That said, Alex Renfroe of Belmont had a better week statistically.

Weird Stat -- Later this week, I'll listen to the audio of Lipscomb vs. ETSU to find out what happened to trigger four (!!!) technical fouls in the second half. Coming into this week, the entire conference had 9 technical fouls this season. This week there were six more.

A Fun Week Proving Nothing

Close games, big shots, and a comeback for the ages, all of which resulted in almost no movement in the standings at all.

Game of the Week -- Can there be any doubt? Belmont is down 18 with 3 1/2 to go, down 11 with under two left, and comes back to win. In regulation. On the road at Campbell.

Other Good Games -- Three one-point games, an OT game, and another 3-point game. Bobby Davis hits a pair of FTs with 3 seconds left to beat Stetson. James Florence rebounds his own miss with 6 seconds left and scores five seconds later, completing a 9-point comeback in the last 2 1/2 minutes to beat Jacksonville. In a game they never led, ETSU had three shots, including a FT, that would have either tied the game or put them ahead in the final 90 seconds but missed them all, losing by one to Stetson. In another rebound game, Jacksonville survived a missed 3-ball by John-Michael Nickerson of Kennesaw to hold on and win by 3.

Player of the Week: Close call this week. Mercer played 3 games, Belmont and Lipscomb only played once. Only 5 guys posted multiple 15-plus PEG nights, and three of them played 3 games. Overall, this was one of the weakest offensive weeks of the year, which makes defense and rebounding key. The conference office went with James Florence, and a PEG average of 17.3, the late-game heroics against Jacksonville, and a team that won 3 times in 5 days make their choice solid. That said, Kevin Tiggs had a better week statisctically (a 30 PEG against FGCU and 18 against Stetson), but his team went 1-1. But if you're looking for a good player on a winning team -- especially one who rebounded well in a week where defense was at a premium -- I'd pick Daniel Emerson. Nothing flashy, but PEGs of 19, 29, and 17 -- his biggest performance coming in the biggest game. Florence may be the guy you want taking the shot late, but Emerson is the guy who is going to keep you in the game long enough for Florence to put on his superhero cape.

Honorable Mention -- The other guys to post multiple 15+ PEGs were Jon-Michael Nickerson of Kennesaw (28 against UNF and 16 against FGCU) and Bryan Mills of Mercer (22 against Kennesaw and 18 against UNF). Jonathan Rodriguez posted 26 in the loss to Belmont. In that game, Alex Renfroe and Nick Hedgepeth (WTTB) of Belmont posted 24 and 20, respectively. Bobby Davis' heroics against Stetson were part of a 27 PEG night. A. J. Smith of Stetson compiled a 20 PEG in the loss.

The NCAA is hosting their third annual mock bracket selection weekend for journalists this weekend. In their simulation, Belmont wins the conference tournament. Just so you know.

Battle of the Boulevard II tonight.

Pride & Prejudice -- And Zombies!!!

Elizabeth "Buffy" Bennett, the Vampire Slayer.

This has to be the awesomest development to hit high school English classes since the invention of Cliff's Notes.

Another Oddity from Last Night's Belmont-Campbell Game

In the middle of the 30-9 run last night, Belmont coach Rick Byrd was hit with a technical foul.

I haven't been able to find anybody who keeps a regular count of such occurrences, but in a quick round of Googling I have only been able to find nine technical fouls issued to A-Sun teams and coaches this year.

Bob Hoffman of Mercer leads with 3, including an ejection. Jacksonville was issued an "administrative technical" before a game against Campbell.

69 conference games, 164 total games, and only 9 technical fouls.

I love this conference.

Are You Kidding Me?

Seriously.

I did not just see that.

Campbell leads Belmont by 18 (!!!) with less than 4 minutes to go, and Belmont comes back to win.

Wow.

A 30-9 run over the last 3:27, with all 9 Campbell points coming at the free throw line. J-Rod goes 2 for 4. Hartley goes 4 for 10. Rick Byrd even gets a Technical.

Get this -- the run started when Belmont started fouling. The only catch is that Campbell is THE BEST FREE THROW SHOOTING TEAM IN THE CONFERENCE! 71% for the year, 9 for 20 down the stretch last night. Nothing like playing to the opposition's strength and beating them anyway.

Of course, when J-Rod is having the kind of night he was having (25 & 10 on 8 of 12 shooting for a PEG of 26), fouling other guys was the only way to get the ball out of his hands.

During the run, Belmont made 6 of 8 3-balls. During the first 36+ minutes, they were 2 for 24.

Amazing.

Scary Stats if You're Lipscomb Fan

Consider the following numbers:

Lipscomb is 0-6 in games decided by 4 points or less.

Lipscomb is 2-10 when the final score is within 3 possessions.

None of this is news. Anybody who has watched Lipscomb this year has seen them struggle in close games.

But consider this: In the six "4 or less" games this year, Lipscomb has been ahead at some point in the final 4 minutes of regulation. In four other games, the lead has changed hands at some point in the last 8 minutes.

Lipscomb's record in those games? 1-9

Ten winnable games, and Lipscomb has closed the deal exactly once. Granted, that one was at Indiana, but that may say more about the Hoosiers than the Bisons.

Yes, Lipscomb is young. Yes, they are still searching for the "go-to" guy in crunch time that Eddie Ard has been for the last 3 years.

But even if you go back to the NIT year, Lipscomb is 19-34 in games decided by single digits. And that's including the year they had Ard, Brian Fisk, and Trey Williams in the starting line-up.

Much like Mercer last year, Lipscomb should be better than this.

Weekend Update

Wow. Just, wow.

Right when it looked like Stetson was circling the drain, they sweep the Nashville schools to pull back above .500. Campbell finally lays the beat downs on people that we thought they were capable of, winning three straight. Lipscomb drops two more close games, their last seven conference losses coming by a total of 25 points.

And Jacksonville beat ETSU in overtime to take sole possession of first place, only to leave a giant hairball on the rug Sunday, losing at home to Upstate by 11 in a game that wasn't that close. ETSU barely got by UNF after the Jacksonville loss.

I love this conference.

Game of the Week: Jacksonville over ETSU in OT. This just in: Ben Smith is pretty good. Smith threw one in from 28 feet in the last 10 seconds of regulation. And welcome back, Marcus Allen. 17 points, 9 boards, 5 blocks for a PEG of 25. For ETSU, Mike Smith was a one-man show, going for 18 & 16 but not scoring in the last 5 minutes of regulation as the Dolphins came from 7 down to force overtime. Still, credit the Bucs. Virtually everybody has an off night, and they take Jacksonville to OT on the road? Not bad.

Second-best game: Stetson over Lipscomb in OT. This year for Lipscomb is shaping up a lot like Eddie Ard's freshman year. The Bisons are right there late in games, but can't quite close the deal. If they had luck on their side, they would be 9-3 right now. If their record mirrored their stats, they would be 7-5. As it is, they have lost ALL of the close games and sit 4-8. In this one, Lipscomb trailed by 13 in the first half, but mounted a 17-4 run to tie it early in the second. From then on, neither team led by more than 4 until overtime, when Stetson finally took control. The Hatters then made 9 of 10 free throws in the last 36 seconds of OT to put it away.

Player of the week -- Sorry, but the conference office kicked this one. They gave it to A. J. Smith of Stetson, who posted a 34 PEG against Belmont. Good, but not the high single-game PEG of the weekend (see below), and when you factor in the Lipscomb game, teammate Garfield Blair was better. 30 PEG vs. Lipscomb on 26 points, 10 boards, and a perfect 10-for-10 at the line, followed by 22 PEG and a near dub-dub vs. Belmont. That said, if I had a vote, I would give it to Mike Smith of ETSU. 37 PEG against UNF (24 points, 14 boards, 9-11 shooting in a game when his team had to have every bit of him). Throw in 26 PEG against Jacksonville (even though he was effectively neutralized late) and you've got your player of the week.

Honorable mention -- Welcome back, J-Rod. 28 PEG against Kennesaw, 26 PEG against FGCU, 20 PEG against Mercer. Any other week, my man. Bobby Davis: 28 PEG (but a miss on a potential tying FT in the last 5 seconds) in a loss at North Florida. Daniel Emerson (MER): 27 PEG on 17 & 15 against Kennesaw. This is a recording. Jon House (BEL): 26 PE vs. FGCU. Marcus Allen (JAX): 25 PEG vs. ETSU. Matthew Dotson (BEL): 23 PEG vs. FGCU. Andy Wicke (BEL): 21 PEG vs. FGCU. Brian Mills (MER): 21 PEG vs. Kennesaw. Alex Renfroe (BEL): 21 PEG at Stetson. Derrick O'Neal (FGCU): 21 PEG vs Lipscomb. Kyle Vejraska (CAM): 20 PEG at Kennesaw. James Florence (MER): 20 PEG on 24 points, 5 assists, and 4 steals against Kennesaw. Yes, that's a lot of missed shots. Junard Hartley (CAM): 19 PEG against FGCU with 9 points, 8 assists

Cool stats -- Campbell had 24 assists on 28 baskets against FGCU. Lipscomb and Stetson combined for 38 points in overtime. Campbell and Mercer combined to shoot 75 free throws in a game that the Camels led by as many as 28 and won by 19.

Settling In

Back from Colorado.

The weekend was not too terribly eventful. UNF won at Stetson, and Mercer took Belmont to overtime before falling. The three strata in the conference are pretty well defined now. Jacksonville, Belmont, and ETSU are all 3 games clear of 4th place and within one game of each other. One game separates the other four tournament-eligible teams. Gulf Coast is the class of the transition schools, with the other three pretty even.

Player of the Week is a five-way race this week, with Ben Smith, Mike Smith, Alex Renfroe, Lehman Colbert, and Kevin Tiggs all having solid weekends. Take your pick; I would have no quibble with any of them.

The current week is one of the longest of the season, running Wednesday through Monday. The biggest game of the weekend is tonight -- ETSU @ Jacksonville for first place.

Back In Town

We're home from Colorado. The girls are on their way back from Nashville.

Northern Kentucky and southern Illinois got hammered by the snow and ice. The guy on the radio this morning said there was no food, fuel, or power from around Carbondale, Illinois to Cadiz, Kentucky.

Thoughts and prayers to all those affected.

When we got home, the trees were straining a bit under the weight of the ice. We lost a couple of branches off the big pine tree, and a few smaller branches were on the roof, but no major damage.

What I'm Up To

Quick check-in from the road.

I'm in Loveland, Colorado right now, just trying to breathe. When it's this high up and this cold and you've got a wire in your chest, oxygen is something you learn not to take for granted.

I'm here for my grandmother's funeral. She passed away last Thursday in Oklahoma and will be buried next to Grandpa on Tuesday.

Yes, I will have a part in the funeral. What that entails remains to be seen.

I'll be back here when I get home.

"Nashville" is A-Sun-ese for "Uh Oh."

Rough weekend for the Nashvile schools. Lipscomb drops to 2-6, losing at ETSU and at Upstate (???). Belmont squeezes by the Spartans, but gets run out of Johnson City.

Best Game of the Weekend -- Tough to choose. Six of the eleven games were decided by less than 5 points. 2 went to overtime:

ETSU 85, Lipscomb 82 (OT). Lipscomb jumped out to a 13-2 lead at lead by as much as 17 early in the second half. ETSU came back after the first TV timeout of the second half, going on a 15-2 run to cut the lead to 2. From then on, it was a seesaw. Courtney Pigram scored with one second left to force overtime, and Michael Lusk missed a potential tying 3-ball at the buzzer in OT to give ETSU the win.

Mercer 101, Stetson 98 (OT). Mercer had a working margin most of the first half, the lead fluctuating between 6 and 12. They couldn't quite put Stetson away in the second half, however, and Stetson pulled yet another rabbit out of a second-half hat, hitting 8 of 13 shots and 7 of 8 free throws in the last 6 minutes to erase a 12-point lead. They even had a shot to win after a James Florence turnover with 4 seconds left, but couldn't get the shot away. OT was more of the same, only this time with Mercer hitting everything in sight. The Bears hit all 3 FG attempts in OT plus 9 of their last 10 FTs to win by 3.

Player of the Weekend -- Calvin Henry, Mercer. 36 PEG (17 points, 12 boards, 9 blocks) in the win over Gulf Coast. 25 PEG (16 & 12 with 3 blocks) in the OT win over Stetson.

Honorable Mention PEG Scores -- Adnan Hozdic, Lipscomb (30 against ETSU). James Florence, Mercer (28 against Stetson). Ben Smith, Jacksonville (26 against Campbell). Bobby Davis, Upstate (26 vs. Lipscomb). Marcus Allen, Jacksonville (25 against Campbell). Jonathan Rodriguez, Campbell (24 against Jacksonville, 21 vs. UNF). Daniel Emerson, Mercer (23 vs. FGCU). Adam Solazzo, ETSU (23 vs. Lipscomb). Eric Diaz, Stetson (23 vs. Mercer). Kevin Tiggs, ETSU (23 vs. Belmont). Garfield Blair, Stetson (22 against Mercer, 21 vs. Kennesaw). Sheldon Oliver, Stetson (20 vs. Kennesaw). Ayron Hardy, Jacksonville (20 against Campbell). Courtney Pigram, ETSU (20 vs. Lipscomb).

Game Snippets

Jacksonville over North Florida -- Round 1 of the River City Rumble goes to the Dolphins. Never in doubt. JU went up 9 early, led by 24 before halftime, and won by 40.

Mercer over Gulf Coast -- Welcome home, Bears. Brian Mills and E. J. Kuysner brought solid efforts. Mercer got up 10 early, pushed it to 18 by halftime, winning by 25.

Stetson over Kennesaw -- Better game than the final score looked. The Owls led most of the first half, and were even up 8 90 seconds into the second half. Whatever Derek Waugh said worked, however, as the Hatters went on a 22-2 run to take control.

Belmont over Upstate -- The Spartans led by 12 with 3 minutes to go in the first half. Belmont cut it to 2 near halftime, but Upstate was back up 5 with 6 minutes to go. But Belmont got hot -- 4 of 7 shooting and 9 of 12 FTs in the last 6 minutes to get the lead and win by 4. Possible explanation about why this game was close: Belmont only got 41 minutes out of their bench players. Henry Harris did not play all weekend. No word as to why.

Jacksonville over Campbell -- Big road win for the Dolphins. 3 players post 20+ PEGs. 3 keys for Jacksonville here -- rebounding, rebounding, and rebounding. The Dolphins had a 21-13 board edge on their own misses. Plus they shot well on the road, which helps.

Kennesaw over Gulf Coast -- Wouldn't you know it. As soon as I start singing the Eagles' praises, they drop two straight. This one is particularly painful, as they led 16-3 at one point. Credit KSU for hanging tough, chipping away at the lead until finally pulling ahead. More credit for only committing 8 turnovers.

Upstate over Lipscomb -- Ouch. After playing so well at ETSU, to come out and lay an absolute egg at Upstate has to sting. Lipscomb came out flat, down as much as 10 in the first half, and this without Bobby Davis on the floor for the Spartans. The Bisons rallied, leading by 5 with 4 1/2 minutes left, but Upstate clamped down on defense, denying the Bisons a field goal the rest of the way. 4 Lipscomb turnovers later, Upstate is up 1 and a weird timeout/inadvertent whistle call sets the stage for one last defensive stand.

ETSU over Belmont -- Speaking of eggs. Belmont got par-boiled at ETSU Monday night. Nothign went right for the Bruins, shooting 28% from the field and only 20% (!!!) from 3-point range. ETSU didn't exactly set the world on fire offensively (sub 30% 3-point shooting, under 70% from the line, 15 turnovers), but the way things were going for the Bruins they didn't have to. A 16-2 first half run put them up 17. Once they hit the canvas, the Bruins simply never got up.

Campbell over North Florida -- Welcome back to the blog, Junard Hartley. UNF kept it close, leading in the second half and pulling within 2 in the last 3 minutes. But then, J-Rod goes J-Rod (offensive board, lay-up, block) ad Hartley sticks the dagger in with a 3-ball in he final minute to put the Camels up 7. Campbell did a good job taking care of the ball, committing a conference-weekend-low 6 turnovers.

ETSU and Jacksonville are tied at 7-1. Belmont is third at 6-2. Stetson, Mercer, and Campbell are all flirting with .500. Lipscomb is cruising toward a 7-seed in March, sitting 2-6 in a pack with the 4 transition schools.

See you next week.

This Weekend in the A-Sun

Strep throat. Thanks for asking.

12 games to look at, so here we go:

Best Game of the weekend -- Campbell 69, Lipscomb 68. Back and forth all night, capped by a Junard Hartley buzzer-beater 3 -- his only points of the night -- for the win. Lipscomb did what they had to do defensively, limiting Jonathan Rodriguez to 4 points and 1 rebound for a season-low PEG of 6 and shutting out Kyle Vejraska completely, but the supporting cast stepped up big-time for an impressive road win.

Runner-up for Best Game -- FGCU 64, ETSU 61. The Bucs had a single-digit lead most of the way, but could never get separation. The Eagles bided their time, then struck late. Down 4 with 90 seconds left, Gulf Coast hit 2 FTs to cut the deficit in half. Then Reggie Chambers makes a huge steal, picking Courtney Pigram's pocket and going coast-to-coast, hitting the lay-up and drawing the foul. The free throw put Gulf Coast up 1 for the first time since the 17 minute park of the first half. ETSu held for the last shot, but Isiah Brown's jumper drew back iron and Gulf Coast got the board, icing the win with 2 more FTs. Big-time but overlooked stat: Gulf Coast had 16 steals on the night.

Player of the Weekend -- Garfield Blair (STET). His team went 1-2, but his play in the second half against Upstate may have saved the season. Blair posted PEGs of 26 and 22 in the losses and 23 in the win.

Best Players of the Weekend -- Calvin Henry (MER) 35 PEG on 11-12 FTs and 11 rebounds against UNF. Ayron Hardy (JAX) 26 PEG in beating Mercer. Alex Renfroe (BEL) 25 PEG against Campbell. Andy Wicke (BEL) 25 PEG against Lipscomb. Ben Smith (JAX) 24 PEG vs. Mercer. Kevin Tiggs (ETSU) 23 vs. Stetson; this is a recording. James Florence (MER) 22 PEG against UNF. Jon-Michale Nickerson (KENN) 22 PEG in the loss to Jacksonville.

Weird weekend for some big-name guys. Courtney Pigram had a PEG shutout against Stetson, and J-Rod was held to 4 at Lipscomb. Yet both teams won, and on the road at that.

Look out world, here come the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles. 4-3 in conference with weekend wins over Upstate, Stetson (!) and ETSU (!!!). Watch out especially if you're up early; that's right where they want you.

Game Snippets:

Gulf Coast over Statson. A 21-4 first half run by the Eagles erased an early deficit, and a 21-6 spurt in the second half put it out of reach. Stetson was game late, valiently closing a 22-point gap, but ran out of time, losing by 9.

UNF over Kennesaw. The Owls shoot 3-for-27 in the first 17 minutes of the second half, and the Ospreys win going away.

Jacksonville over Mercer. The Dolphins are starting to shoot the ball a little bit. 3 straight games with better than 50% FG shooting. Memo to Mercer: If last year wasn't proof enough that depth matters, this game should clinch it. The Big 3 were OK, but the rest of the team was never in the game. Jacksonville also rebounded almost half of their missed shots. To win on the road, you need depth, rebounding, defense, and good FT shooting. Mercer went 1-for-4.

ETSU over Stetson. Solid road win for the Bucs, with good production from role players. Oh, and Kevin Tiggs.

Gulf Coast over Upstate. Down 6 early, the Eagles mount runs of 16-2 and 11-0, then cruise home.

Belmont over Campbell. I think we made it angry. After an even first ten minutes, Belmont went on an 11-0 run to build a working margin. Then, up 12 in the second half, the Bruins went off. Belmont hit five straight 3-pointers and forced 4 turnovers and 10 straight Campbell misses in a 25-1 run that put the issue to bed. As for Campbell? A Nashville split is OK, but one would like to have seen them put up more than token resistance against Belmont.

Mercer over UNF. Calvin Henry returns to form. James Florence makes a lot of shots, but he takes a lot of shots. This is a recording. UNF put up a valiant fight into the second half, but Mercer made their FTs all night (gasp!) to keep the Ospreys at bay.

Jacksonville over Kennesaw. Rebounding, rebounding rebounding. Jacksonville pulled down 22 offensive boards on the night, compared to only 16 defensive rebounds by the Owls. Jacksonville also only committed 7 turnovers. Kennesaw hung tough, taking good care of the ball (9 turnovers), but the Dolphins on the boards were too much. 11 Jacksonville players played at least 10 minutes, and all 11 had at least 2 rebounds.

Stetson over Upstate: Season-saver. Stetson was coming off 2 losses, 3-3 in conference, and down 10 at home to Upstate in the second half (after being up 13 early) before rallying to win by 6.

Belmont over Lipscomb (Battle of the Boulevard I): Every bit of a battle. Belmont led the whole way, but Lipscomb would not fold. the Bruins had a couple of chances to put the game away, but came up empty. Lipscomb would rally, and Belmont would get some more distance. Sort of like a heavyweight fight everybody knows is going to the judges as soon as the fighters step into the ring. By the way, kudos to Hope Hines and Channel 5 for their coverage.

First Weekend Recap

Best Game of the Weekend: ETSU 84, Jacksonville 82. Courtney Pigram goes for 39, Mike Smith hits a floater in the last 5 seconds, and it still almost isn't enough, as Travis Cohn misses a 3-ball at the buzzer that would have won it for the Dolphins.

Worst Game of the Weekend: Gulf Coast at Beloved Alma Mater. Teams combined for 100 missed shots, 57 fouls, and 41 turnovers. Zooks.

Player of the Weekend: Pigram. A PEG of 39 against Jacksonville, followed by 21 (24 points on 9-14 shooting) against Gulf Coast.

Other Notable Performances: Bobby Davis (USCU). 24 points and 16 boards against UNF. Daniel Emerson's 20 (!) rebounds at Campbell. Jonathan Rodriguez goes double-double against Mercer. Adnan Hozdic (BAM) posts 26 and 9 against FGCU.

Welcome to the Blog: Matt Gwynne of Campbell put up 17 and 9 against Kennesaw while missing only 2 shots. Reggie Chambers (FGCU) -- 20 points off the bench at Belmont.

Other Fun Stats: Home teams were 8-2 on the weekend. Tournament-eligible teams are 11-1 against transition teams in conference so far.

Stating the Obvious: Road team radio crews REALLY like to gripe about refs. It may be part of the job description since most of the people listening are fans of the school you represent, and granted refs called an average of 4 more fouls on visitors than home teams (up from the nationwide median of 2.2), and granted home teams shot 9 more free throws per game that road teams this weekend, but still. Have some dignity. You're not there to yell at the refs, you're there to call the game.

Where Things Stand, Part 2

Gulf Coast -- 3-point shooting and FT shooting are in the top 3 in the conference, but they average close to 20 turnovers per game, resulting in a 9th-best PEP of 0.90. This is, however, against a decent schedule. Gulf Coast has run with some pretty big dogs this year (Michigan, Florida, Kansas), so as they play with teams their own size the numbers should improve. Derrick O'Neil has been the star (14.6 PEG), and Delvin Franklin and Reed Baker providing solid support. Weird: FGCU's opponents have taken 100 more 3-pointers than they have in 13 games, and only make 29.6% of them.

Conference Record Projection: 10-10

Jacksonville -- Speaking of strength of schedule. Georgetown, Florida State, Baylor, Ohio State, and Georgia Tech. No Transylvania moments, but the Dolphins are better for having played the games. More to the point, they're better than they look. Which is a good thing, because the numbers look a bit bleak. Jacksonville's opponents have made 48.5% of their FGs and 41% of their 3's, both last in the conference. Thus far, Ben Smith has been the leader, with decent help from Marcus Allen. But for Jacksonville to be as good as we thought they would be in the preseason, some other guys need to step up. Travis Cohn, Ayron Hardy, Evan Jefferson, and Lehman Colbert all have better game than the numbers have shown so far. The Dolphins will need that game if they want to make noise in the conference.

Conference Record Projection: 11-9

Kennesaw State -- Probably the opposite scheduling philosophy from Jacksonville and Gulf Coast, which makes apples-to-apples comparisons difficult. Kennesaw is shooting the ball well and doing a passable job defensively. Jon-Michael Nickerson has been the Owls' best player so far, with solid support from Kelvin McConnell. The problem is the rest of the guys haven't really done much. This does not bode well for conference play. J. D. Pollock's knee injury is a major hit. Very few point guards in this league take care of the basketball as well as he does.

Conference Record Projection: 11-9

Lipscomb -- Who knows, really. They can lose at home to Tennessee Tech and on the road at Elon, but then win in Assembly Hall. Exactly the sort of up-and-down season you might expect from a team that starts 5 sophomores. The numbers look promising, but inconsistent. 2-point and FT shooting are the best in the conference, but 3-pointers are second-worst. Lipscomb may actually look better than they really are, as opponent FT% is only 56.5%. The conference as a whole shoots 68% from the foul line. If Lipscomb can keep making their free throws, limit the amount of shots they take from beyond the arc, and most importantly play consistent defense, they could be pretty good. This team reminds me a lot of Belmont last year in terms of balance; Adnan Hozdic and Brandon Brown are as close as they have to all-conference type players, but seven other guys are making significant contributions. That said, they're young. We'll see if they can keep it up.

Conference Record Projection: 14-6

Last four later . . .

Where Things Stand

Conference play begins in earnest tomorrow, so here's where things sit going in:

Belmont -- Still the best 3-point shooting team in the league. FT shooting is down. Backcourt numbers look good, but inside play needs work. Defense is a bit worrisome (1.14 PEP, 9th in the conference). Won at Austin Peay and at home against MTSU, lost a close one at Tennessee. Andy Wicke and Alex Renfroe have averaged double-digit PEGs.

Conference Record Projection: 12-8

Campbell -- Second-best shooting team in the conference. By far the fastest pace (76.3 P/40). Can they keep running that speed? We'll see. They must take better care of the basketball. Rebounding has been good. Campbell is still pretty much a one-man show, with Jonathan Rodriguez averaging a PEG north of 19 and nobody else within 10. Lorne Merthe has been OK, but the Camels simply need more production from Kyle Vejraska and Junard Hartley if they're going to be a factor.

Conference Record Projection: 10-10

ETSU -- Top shooting percentage in the conference. Extra good inside the arc. Scary-good defensively. Only conference team to hold it's pre-conference schedule under 40% from the floor. Opponents averaged four more turnovers than assists per game. Won five of six in December, including two conference wins and a win at Marshall. Courtney Pigram and Kevin Tiggs are in the conversation for league MVP, and Mike Smith is contributing nicely.

Conference Record Projection: 16-4

More to come . . .