Ain't Nothin' But a Family Thing

I first discovered college football when I was 7.

I'm sure I had seen games before that, because I knew the rules and followed the action fairly easily. But the first game I remember watching -- really watching, start to finish -- was the 1982 Orange Bowl. My dad grew up in Nebraska, but as a military family the only time we got to watch the Cornhuskers play was when they played a) Oklahoma or b) in a bowl game. In our house, the Nebraska-Oklahoma game had its own batch of traditions -- the "guys vs. girls" division of rooting, Mom putting her Sooners hat on top of the TV. But the first time I really noticed how much fun college football could be was New Year's Night, 1982. Clemson vs. Nebraska. Mom & Dad both watched the game and, for the first time, let me stay up all the way to the end.

Pretty cool when you're seven.

Over the years my college football fandom has been what could be best described as a "lovers' quarrel." There's a lot not to like, most of which centers around the letters E, N, P, and S. You can probably guess what order those letters belong in. From the MNC -- "Meaningless National Championship" -- to all manner of Heisman Trophy controversies to the sham that is the BCS, the sport makes it hard to be a fan if you don't have a rooting interest in one particular team. In 2007, I set a record for fewest games watched in a season -- three.

But that said, I still love the game. Thanksgiving wasn't as interesting this year as it was in the Switzer-Osborne days, but I still found myself holding my breath when Nebraska launched that 57-yard FG to beat Colorado. Vanderbilt's first trip to a bowl game in 26 years has made for an interesting season watching their fans. In fact, I have the Music City Bowl open in another window right now as I'm writing this. The Big XII South controversy, though, reminded me why I didn't miss the game last year.

Now to be fair, college basketball has a lot of problems, most of which (again) stem from those four letters. Money teams from money conferences dominate the game. Period. They draw eyeballs to TV's. They sell tickets. And they get the vast majority of the spots in the NCAA tournament. Last year, schools that spent $2 million or more on men's basketball got 32 of 34 at-large bids.

But Sunday night, none of that mattered.

Sunday night, I was the Dad, introducing the team I love playing the game I love to my own 6-year-old. My daughter Erica had seen enough basketball to understand the basics; players try to put the ball in the hoop, how far away you are determines how many points you get, and the team in white usually wins. Erica has had her moments with basketball before. Last year she picked Memphis to make the national championship game, and when they did, she won our annual family basketball picking contest.

But Sunday night, for the first time in four years, Erica and I were in front of a TV while Lipscomb was playing on the screen.

Speaking of lovers' quarrels. When Lipscomb made the move to NCAA Division I, I was among many alumni who sounded the alarm that this might not be the best of ideas. In the last eleven years, the entire athletic department has produced maybe half a dozen winning seasons. Lipscomb, once a small-college athletic juggernaut, had jumped into the deep end and was constantly getting its head pushed under the water by the bigger, cooler kids. Even in the section of the pool reserved for the little guys, Lipscomb was a punching bag. Sure, there was the occasional highlight (taking Belmont to overtime in the conference title game the NIT year, volleyball and baseball making the NCAA tournament), but for the better part of the last decade being a Lipscomb fan has not been too terrible much fun.

But like it or not, Lipscomb is my school. I met my wife there. Her parents both went there. In college, I helped out making game tapes for the women's basketball team. Lipscomb basketball is in my blood, and in Erica's DNA.

Sunday night, Lipscomb played at Indiana. The game was on the Big Ten Network, and since we were visiting my parents in Arkansas we got to watch the game live. We cmae home from church expecting to see the typical major vs. mid-major score, only to find Lipscomb ahead -- ahead, I tell you -- early in the second half. The last fifteen minutes of the game, neither team led by more than four. That is, not until Jimmy Oden hit two free throws to put the Bisons up 5 in the last 10 seconds.

I remember being a seven-year-old, seeing how excited my Dad was to watch his team play in a bowl game. Even though Nebraska lost the game -- forcing my Dad, the writing staff of Jeopardy, and the rest of Husker Nation to wait another 12 years for their MNC -- I'll never forget what it was like to watch my Dad as his team took the lead on Clemson in the second quarter. It's a memory I will treasure until the day I die.

Sunday night -- when the final horn went off, my hands went in the air, and I yelled loudly enough to set off the Christmas tree -- a six-year-old little girl got to see her Daddy celebrate. Maybe one day she will look back on that night the same way I remember that Orange Bowl.

Even though the guys in the white shirts lost.

Four! Four Transylvania! Ah, ah, ah . . .

Lipscomb 74, Indiana 69.

I still can't believe I just typed that.

Lipscomb 74.

[deep breath]

Indiana

[deep breath again]

69.

Sunday night I was in Arkansas at my parents' house. We came home from church in time to catch the second half on the Big Ten Network, part of my parents' AT&T TV package. By the time I got the TV turned on, Lipscomb had rallied from a 21-point first half deficit, using 11-0 and 18-0 runs to take a 3-point lead. Michael Teller had the best game (PEG of 27, including 19 points, 6 boards, and 4 assists) but Adnan Hozdic was the hero, scoring twice in the last 2 1/2 minutes to give Lipscomb the lead. Jimmy Oden also came up huge, making several big plays on defense (including a memorable one against the Big Ten Network broadcast table) and hitting the icing free throws in the final minute.

When the game was over I yelled so loudly I set off my Mom's motion-sensitive singing Christmas egg.

BALL GAME!

Too happy to type.

Lipscomb 74, Indiana 69.

Indi-freakin'-ana.

Transylvania report when I get home from vacation Wednesday.

WOO HOO!!!

It's Over! It's Over!

I usually don't say much about non-conference games win or lose unless it's a BIG win, but this is huge. The seventh seal has been opened. Odin has declared Ragnarok. Marvin Martian has pulled the lever. Make peace with your maker. Do whatever it is you do when the end of days is as hand.

North Florida won a road game.

In their fourth year as an NCAA D-1 school, in "only" their 55th attempt, the North Florida Ospreys finally won their first game away from home. Last night, they knocked off Furman 77-66. Eni Cuka was the hero of the night, pouring in 27 points on 8 of 12 shooting for a PEG of 24. Stan Januska added a 22 PEG night of his own. But this was a team win in every sense of the word. In addition to shooting an uncharacteristically-high 81.8% from the foul line (including 19 of 24 in the last 5 minutes), the Ospreys hit 12 of 17 FGs in the second half. Throw in the team's best defensive first half of the year (possibly ever) and you have all the ingredients of a road win.

Yet another reason to love the Atlantic Sun: The Ospreys spent game day in the hotel lobby playing what UNF media guy Shawn Lafata called -- wait for it -- "a massive chess tournament." No word who won, but come on now. How cool is that?

Speaking of big games, get a load of tomorrow's line-up:

Lipscomb @ N. C. State
Gulf Coast @ Butler
Belmont @ Tennessee
Stetson @ Missouri
Upstate @ Fresno State
Mercer @ UCLA

If you Google "Transylvania" Sunday and end up here, I'm probably a happy man.

Why I Do What I Do

I'm not a journalist. I don't even play a reasonable facsimile of one on the Intergoogles. I've never "covered" a game. Because of where I live, financial and family obligations, a day job, etc., I haven't even been to a game in 5 years.

I'm just a guy who went to a small school that suddenly finds itself on a big stage. Jim Rome thinks we're the reason the NIT sucks. Verne Lundquist said our name on CBS Saturday (one of Indiana's upcoming opponents). In my world, that's a big deal.

I'm not a Professional Journalist. Nor am I a comedian. If you're looking for Grantland Rice-ish ambiance, Recapbot game stories, rabid fandom, or body part jokes, go somewhere else.

I simply love my school, basketball, and playing with numbers.

Lately, I have also fallen in love with the teams my school plays. There are some great stories there for someone with enough time, access, and talent to dig them out. I know about a few of them -- Bob Hoffman being exonerated by the NCAA after it imposed show-cause orders on some of his former co-workers, the under-the-radar class of the Lipscomb-Belmont rivalry, the general awesomeness that is Jonathan Rodriguez. But lacking any of the above (time, access, awesomeness), I rely on what I can glean from media reports, and write what I see in the numbers.

Hence, the Atlantic Sun Blog.

Maybe there is a market out there for fan-jabbering about a small conference of small schools in the middle of Nowhere-midmajor-vania. If so, I hope somebody good fills it -- and not with Deadspin-ish blather about who has the hottest cheerleaders, either. But for right now, aside from newspaper beat writers and SID's (who are paid to be there) and Kyle Whelliston (also paid, only less so), there's just me.

So I write for me. And that's fine. I'll never be a correspondent for the WWL. I don't pretend to believe that anybody else cares about me or my subject. I'm perfectly content to use the ASB as an online diary, my own way of enjoying a season I wish I could get closer to but choose not to for reasons listed above. If Junard Hartley's mom happens by and sees the nice things I wrote about her son, that's cool too.

And if some of those "paid" professionals like what they see -- or are at least encouraged to keep doing what they're doing simply because I am out here and exist -- then I've done more good than I set out to do.

O'Neill, Baker Hold Off Campbell

Somehow I overlooked this gem of a game from the weekend:

Gulf Coast 72, Campbell 68. Reed Baker and Derrick O'Neil each post PEGs over 20 (Baker 27, O'Neil 24) for FGCU. The game was fast but sloppy; 77 possessions per team led to a combined 44 turnovers and 8 of 31 3-point shooting. Both teams best players had off nights -- Jonathan Rodriguez had only 12 points to go with 6 turnovers, and FGCU's Delvin Franklin turned the ball over 7 times to post a PEG of 0 despite scoring 14 points. That's hard to do.

The game turned on an intentional foul call with less than 5 minutes to go. Up by 5, FGCU got the ball back when Derrick O'Neil picked Junard Hartley's pocket, then was fouled by Preston Dotson. O'Neil hit both free throws, then found Ed Rolax for a lay-up to put the Eagles up 9. 4 Gulf Coast turnovers in the final 81 seconds gave the Camels a shot, but they couldn't quite get there at the end.

Three To Go

Former Lipscomb basketball coach Don Meyer posted career win #900 Saturday.

If you don't know the story, read the articles from ESPN and Spots Illustrated. Buster Olney and Grant Wahl give the chase for Bob Knight's record the professional treatment it deserves, far better than I could.

So we're in the eleventh season since Lipscomb joined Division 1. Five years ago, I asked which would come first -- Lipscomb beats a BCS-conference team or Don Meyer breaks the all-time coaching wins record. On December 28th, Coach Meyer goes for win #901, one short of Bob Knight. That same day, Lipscomb plays at Indiana. And even better -- the senior point guard for Northern State is from Bloomington.

Weird.

Fun with PEGs

Perhaps my favorite "accident" related to calculating PEG scores is how they have pointed out remarkable performances that would otherwise be overshadowed in the box score.

Case in point, Junard Hartley.

Who? I'm glad you asked. Junard Hartley is a 6'3" sophomore guard for Campbell. He started 24 games at point guard for the Camels last year, but playing in the substantial shadow of Jonathan Rodriguez, didn't post a lot of numbers. Now a sophomore, Hartley has only taken 17 shots in 8 games (making 9 of 11 two-pointers), and despite being an 80%+ FT shooter, only gets to the line twice per game. Basically, he's a good player who knows his role and fills it well. Campbell doesn't need him to shoot every possession. They need a point guard who hustles on defense, takes care of the basketball, and creates opportunities for Rodriguez and Vejraska.

Last night against Stetson, Hartley did his job well enough to post a game-high PEG of 20. His 11 points came with only 1 missed FG (a 3) and one missed FT. He only had one assist, but also only one turnover. He also pulled down 8 defensive rebounds and nabbed 2 steals. He was also part of a team that held Stetson's solid back court duo of A.J. Smith and Garfield Blair to 7-19 shooting and more turnovers than assists.

The bad news for Campbell is that they are 0-2 in conference. The good news is that they went on the road and played Stetson even (team PEGs wee both 62 in a 66-possession game). If the Camels can just keep doing what they're doing, watch out.

Hi, I'm Mike Smith, and I'll Be Your Player of the Night

In a 20-point win over Mercer, the ETSU junior shot 50% from the floor en route to 20 points and 8 boards for a PEG of 24. This game also saw the first ejection of the A-Sun year, as Bears coach Bob Hoffman was tossed midway through the second half. Daniel Emerson continues to be Mercer's best player, putting in 20 points on 7-9 shooting against ETSU.

Mike Smith's performance Friday night was matched by Jacksonville's Ben Smith Saturday afternoon. The Dolphin point guard made 7 of 9 shots and added 5 assists to post a 24 PEG as Jacksonville knocked off Lipscomb. Jacksonville put the game away early in the second half, when they went on an 8-minute scoring binge making 9 of 10 shots, including a 5-possession stretch where they scored 14 points. Lipscomb? Defense? Not so much. Jacksonville shot the lights out, hitting 15 of 22 2's and 6 of 9 3's in the second half. Jacksonville also rebounded well, picking up 50% of the possible offensive boards.

Across town, Belmont had no problem with North Florida. The Ospreys were able to hang tough for about 8 minutes, but a 3-point Bruin lead at the second media timeout was 10 four minutes later, 16 at half, and hit 34 before it was over. Belmont's bench played 100 minutes, a season-high for a team whose starters only average 24 minutes per game anyway. Potential sign of trouble: Belmont shot under 60% from the foul line. We expected that with Justin Hare graduating Belmont's FT % would drop, but this is not good.

Stat of the Night: In Lipscomb's two wins this year, their opposition has shot 30.6% from the floor in the second half. In their four losses, the other guys shoot 56.7%. Saturday, Jacksonville was 21 of 31.

Tonight, Campbell takes on VMI (yes, Kentucky fans, that VMI). The big question is whether Jonathan Rodriguez will score 50. My guess is yes.

Jacksonville 65, Belmont 64

Do not -- I repeat, do NOT -- go to sleep on the Jacksonville Dolphins this year.

While Mercer has been the headline-maker this December, Jacksonville has quietly posted five near-misses against NCAA and NIT teams from last year. They opened the year with five straight losses, but in every game they have battled back from significant deficits to make the game competitive. Still, they needed a win.

Last night they got one.

Down 19 to Belmont at halftime, Jacksonville rallied, holding the typically-reliable Bruin shooting to 5-for-22 in the second half. The Dolphins also hit 22 of 26 second-half free throws, including 2 by Ben Smith in the last 10 seconds.

But the game was as strange for Belmont as it was typical for Jacksonville. For instance, Rick Byrd usually runs a 9 or 10-man rotation, with the bench accounting for an average of almost 80 minutes of playing time. Last night non-starters only played a total of 49 minutes. Belmont came in averaging 12 turnovers per game. Last night? 22. Belmont also missed the front end of a one-and-one twice in the second half, a bad sign when you're playing a good team on the road.

Player of the Night: Marcus Allen (JAX) -- 21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 3 steals for a PEG of 24.

Other games: Lipscomb cruises to a 69-54 win over North Florida. Adnan Hozdic led the way for Lipscomb with a PEG of 19. North Florida had Stetson on the ropes and should have had the huge road upset, but 6 turnovers in the last 2 1/2 minutes resulted in an 18-0 Stetson run to turn a 13-point deficit into a 5-point win. This just in: A. J. Smith and Garfield Blair are pretty good.

Weird stat of the night: Stetson and FGCU combined for 29 offensive rebounds, but only 7 second-chance points. Another fun stat: Teams that lost last night were only 3-of-8 on the front end of a one-and-one in the second half. Winning teams were 6-of-9.

Coming up: ETSU is at Mercer tonight. The Nashville schools swap gyms in Jacksonville Saturday afternoon.

Memo to Eric Yutzy and Steve Wrigley: Take the sock out of your mouths and REPORT THE LOCAL SOCREBOARD! I'm not asking you to send 2 camera crews to Jacksonville to cover A-Sun road games in December. I'm not even asserting that a Belmont or Lipscomb (or MTSU, or Austin Peay, or whoever) game tonight is bigger news than a Titans game yesterday or tomorrow. But can we at least 7 seconds for scores, even on title cards? About the only sports reporting ESPN doesn't do is to cover local teams. Please, do your job. In this media age, it's all you have left.

Three! Three Transylvania! Ah ah ah . . .

East Tennessee State 76, Marshall 72

Somebody pull Kevin Tiggs off Marshall.

The senior posted a season-best PEG of 29, leading the Bucs to an upset of the Marshall Thundering Herd. Tiggs played all 40 minutes, posting 4 steals and 4 rebounds to go with -- oh, nothing -- 31 points. Mike Smith iced things with the last 2 of his 16 points coming at the line in the last 10 seconds.

ETSU shot lights-out all night, hitting 8 of their first 12 shots and 70% of their 2's in the first half. They will probably want to tighten up a little on defense; 72 points in 65 possessions is higher than they like to see, especially against a team that shoots as many 3's as Marshall does. By the time Belmont rolls around, that points allowed per possession number needs to be a bit lower.

But then again, if the Bucs can keep up that hot shooting touch, they will be tough for anybody to beat.

In other news, Mercer had one of its more balanced games this year in a 74-64 win over Upstate. Calvin Henry posted 16 points, 12 boards, and 6 blocks en route to a PEG score of 31. Daniel Emerson added 16 points and 12 boards, with James Florence dishing out 8 assists. This was probably one of the slowest games you'll see in the conference this year, with only 65 possessions.

Weird stat of the night: Upstate was 6-6 at the FT line, only committed 2 (!) turnovers, and lost by 10.

And We're Off

The A-Sun season got underway in earnest last night, with Kennesaw State knocking off winless Upstate 66-64. John-Michael Nickerson hit a running one-hander with less than a second left to win it. Nickerson's PEG of 24 led all comers.

Neither team led by more the 3 in the last 15 minutes.

Upstate goes to Mercer tonight. Six other teams get underway Thursday.

J-Rod Being J-Rod

Stop me if you've heard this before.

Campbell's Jonathan Rodriguez posted the individual performance of the season so far in a 97-92 loss to VMI last night. Rodriguez posted 23 points and 14 rebounds en route to the A-Sun's first PEG score of 30 so far this year. VMI, as they did against Kentucky last week, raced out to a big first-half lead, then ran out of gas as Campbell crept closer. The lead was down to one with under a minute left, but the Keydets hit their free throws late to put the game away. Credit the Camels for playing a disciplined game, launching only 11 3-point attempts in an 82-possession game. Of course, 23 turnovers are more than you would want to see, even in a game as frenetic as this one was.

Tonight, Belmont visits Pittsburgh.

Two Near-Misses

I guess three in a row is too much to ask.

Stetson had a look at its first major upset this weekend, while Mercer had #3 in its sights. Both teams had a shot at the buzzer, but both came up empty.

Apparently, somebody at Stetson is none to happy about the officiating of their game with Florida State. I'm not going to criticize a crew unless I watch the game (and even then, probably not), but the numbers are what they are. Stetson had 13 free throw attempts in the game. Florida State had 13 in the second half, after 21 in the first.

That said, the Hatters came from 16 down at halftime, making 61% of their 2's and 53% of their 3's in the second half, outscoring FSU by 20 over an 8-minute stretch. Stetson led by 7 with less than 9 minutes left, but then hit a dry spell, going 1 of 8 from the floor during a 6-minute, 16-3 Seminole run.

Stetson had a shot to tie late, pulling down a rebound with 9 seconds left down 2. But A.J. Smith's drive drew contact but no whistle and the clock ran out. Garfield Blair was the player of the night for Stetson, putting up 19 points and 7 boards.

Mercer also had a good look at an ACC upset this weekend, but fell to Georgia Tech in overtime. The current leaders of the RPI had a shot at the buzzer to win in regulation, but James Florence's jumper was tipped. Tech then jumped out to a quick 6-point lead in overtime and never looked back. E. J. Kuysner had a big night, burying 6 3-pointers on his way to 22 points and a PEG score of 18. Calvin Henry and James Florence each posted a PEG of 17, albeit in drastically different ways. Florence was his usual self, scoring 26 points on 24 shots and handing out 6 assists while committing 7 turnovers. Henry was quieter, but no less effective, posting 8 points and 8 boards on 3-3 shooting.

Two! Two Transylvania! Ah, Ah, Ah . . .

Mercer just might win the SEC West this year.

Dominating Auburn on the offensive glass, the Mercer Bears pulled off their second straight road win against an SEC opponent, topping the Tigers 78-74. I've often said that in a guard-oriented conference, the team that controls the backboards controls the game. Stat of the night: Mercer missed 29 shots, but pulled down 14 (!!!) offensive rebounds. On Auburn misses, Mercer controlled the boards by a 32-6 margin.

Daniel Emerson was huge once again, adding 12 rebounds and 4 assists to his 12 points, for a PEG of 18 in 40 minutes of action. James Florence scored 25 points on 7-19 shooting and 7-10 free throws. As a team, Mercer shot 76% from the FT line for the night, compared to Auburn's 57%.

If Coach Bob Hoffman wants something to yell at his guys about, though, it's probably turnovers. Florence coughed the ball up 8 times, Emerson 4 more. 19 turnovers won't win you a lot of 70-possession games, even in the A-Sun.

Next up for Mercer: Georgia Tech on Saturday.

Jeopardy Update

It's Kentucky week on Jeopardy!

Last night, Shelby Malone of Grayson and Jay Schraeder of Lexington played in the Teen Tournament semis. And Friday, a preacher from Todd County will be in the GSN re-run at 11 a.m. Will he have any better luck this time? Will he get that elusive Daily Double in Classical Music and parlay that into a stunning upset? Will he at least make his arrow point the right way in Final Jeopardy?

Find out Friday morning.

Thumbnail Preview -- Stetson

Last Year: 16-16 overall, 11-5 in conference, good for third place. Lost to Gardner-Webb in the tournament quarterfinals.

Losses: Just one -- role player J. J. Hirst. Last year, Hirst was one of nine Hatters to average more than 12 minutes per game.

Key Returners: Everybody else. And I do mean everybody. Stetson will start two seniors (Garfield Blair and Tim Lang) and three juniors (A. J. Smith, Sheldon Oliver, and Mark Louhuis). They also have two seniors (Eric Diaz and Kris Thomas) and a junior (Brandon Williams) who saw significant minutes last year.

Show Me Numbers: If any team in the A-Sun wins with defense, it's Stetson. Last year they held conference opponents under 28% from 3-point range, led the league in field goal defense, and were second in scoring defense. That said, what Stetson does well on defense will have to make up for some significant weaknesses on the offensive end. Stetson was at the bottom of the tournament-eligible teams last year in Points per possession, PEP, and PEG. Yet despite a relatively poor showing on the offensive end, they still went 11-5 in conference.

Quick Analysis: The big question for Stetson is whether their offense or defense will be closer to "average" this year. Typically, having experienced players means two things. 1) You do better in close games. 2) You play better defense, and for longer stretches. If Stetson comes into this year in good physical condition and puts the same level of effort into defending the basketball as they did last year, I suspect the offense will come around somewhat.

Stat Projection: Offensively, Stetson projects to have a 0.89 PEP and 60.18 PEG, both near the bottom of the conference. But Stetson is all about defense, so we'll see.

One! One Transylvania! Ah Ah Ah . . .

Welcome to the A-Sun, Daniel Emerson.

In the first big-time upset of the A-Sun season so far, Mercer went into Tuscaloosa and shocked SEC stalwart Alabama, 72-69. Emerson backed up his 16 point, 19 rebound (!!) performance against Piedmont with 18 points and 6 boards on 7 of 10 shooting to lead the Bears against the Crimson Tide. Emerson's PEG scores of 24 and 20 were tops in the conference for the weekend.

James Florence also came up big at the end, finding Calvin Henry underneath the basket for the go-ahead lay-up, then stealing the in-bounds pass and hitting 2 free throws to put Mercer up 3 with under 10 seconds to go. Henry posted a team-high PEG score of 23 against Alabama, pulling down 13 rebounds and blocking 5 shots to go with 9 points.

In other news, kudos to Jacksonville for taking on a couple of big dogs (Georgetown and Florida State) and giving them all they wanted. The Dolphins came from 17 down at the last media timeout against the Seminoles to get within two, but ran out of time before they could get the last shot off. Against the Hoyas, Jacksonville came from 12 down at halftime to get within four in the last 5 minutes before Georgetown pulled away late to win by 9.

Belmont fell to Austin Peay 86-84 last night. After rallying from 9 down at the 5-minute mark to tie, Belmont forward Henry Harris was whistled for a foul with 0.2 seconds left. APSU hit the free throws and that was that. ETSU also lost on a last-second foul,squandering a four-point lead in the final minutes to lose to Hofstra, 76-75. Hofstra hit two free throws with 1.1 seconds left to win.

And Away They Go

The regular season gets underway this afternoon and tonight, with five games Friday plus a handful over the weekend. Big-name match-ups: ETSU vs. Temple, Upstate @ Georgia, Stetson @ Texas. Florida State goes to Jacksonville Saturday. Upstate is at Notre Dame Sunday, while Mercer goes to Alabama. Jacksonville gets another bite at the apple Monday night when they go to Georgetown.

On the women's side, Mercer travels to Texas A&M tonight, and FGCU is at Florida State Sunday. The big night is Monday, with Jacksonville visiting Florida and Kennesaw State going to North Carolina.

Later: Previews of Stetson and Upstate. After that, I hope: Women's previews.

Thumbnail Preview -- North Florida

Last Year: 3-26 overall, 1-15 in conference. Ineligible for the conference tournament during reclassification.

Losses: Tom Hammonds transferred to Lambuth. Chris Timberlake and James Grimball graduated.

Key Returners: Stan Januska, Devon Jones, and Jermaine Sparks are returning starters. Justin Cecil and Cortez Riley also saw significant minutes last year.

Show Me Numbers: Last year, UNF had seven games where they were tied or within six at the end of regulation. Winnable games, to be sure, but they need to find a way to do so. That said, the Ospreys lost over half of their production from last year, such as it was. Returning players only shot 57.3% from the FT line and 27.5% from 3-point range. As a team, they were last in the conference in every ball-in-hoop category.

Quick Analysis: Last season's numbers bear a striking resemblance to "rock bottom." The Ospreys hope not to go sideways this year. They should have a decent look at 40% FG shooting and 30% from 3-point range, but whether it will be enough to get up off the floor of the conference remains to be seen. UNF's best hope may be on the defensive end. They slow the game down nicely, and held all but 3 conference opponents under 80 points last year.

Stat Projection: 0.90 PPP, 0.98 PEP, and 67.52 PEG are all in the bottom two in the conference.

Thumbnail Preview -- Mercer

Last Year: 11-19 overall, 6-10 in conference (tied for eighth). Lost to Jacksonville in the conference tournament quarterfinals.

Losses: Coach Mark Slonaker, contract not renewed. Starters Shadeen Aaron, Sam Dolan, and Brian Pfohl graduated.

Key Returners: Mercer returns five players who averaged 15+ minutes per game. Calvin Henry was Defensive Player of the Year last year. Despite his tendency to shoot his team out of games, James Florence was named all-conference last year and two years ago was the league's Outstanding Freshman.

Show Me Numbers: The four players gone off of last year's Bears roster combined to shoot better than 48% from the floor, by far the best-shooting senior class in the conference (sorry, Belmont.) Good news for new coach Bob Hoffman: Mercer was also the fastest team in the league last year, averaging close to 75 possessions per game. Looks like a good match between an up-tempo coach and an up-tempo team. The catch? The returning roster is tenth out of eleven teams in the conference in FG%, just under 40%. They take a lot of shots, but they miss a lot of shots.

Quick Analysis: On the plus side, Mercer has an experienced starting line-up to work with. The new coach comes in with a solid reputation; Coach Hoffman was the only assistant at Oklahoma under Kelvin Sampson to be completely exonerated by the NCAA in the phone call scandal -- no small feat, and one I would love a chance to explore with him in person one day. From here, Mercer reminds me of the "little girl who had a little curl right in the middle of her forehead. When she was good, she was very, very good, but when she was bad, she was horrid." In James Florence's shots are falling, they can beat anybody. If not, they can lose to anybody. Calvin Henry's defense will help, as will the fact that this is one of the oldest teams in the conference (only two freshmen and two sophomores on the roster). Given what they have to work with this year, and what they're up against in this league, I look for them to be a solid, middle-of-the-pack team.

Stat Projection: 1.05 PEP is in the bottom half of the league, and 77.79 PEG is in the top half. This probably places them somewhere in the middle.

Thumbnail Preview -- Lipscomb

Last Year: 15-16 overall, 9-7 in conference. Lost at home in the conference tournament quarterfinals to ETSU.

Losses: Eddie Ard, probably the best all-around player in Lipscomb's NCAA era, was drafted by the NBA D-League. LaKory Daniels, the outside threat who opened the floor for Ard, averaged over 30 minutes per game. Jason Hopkins and Devon Seaford are also gone.

Key Returners: Thomas Pfaff and Michael Lusk are the only two seniors. Brandon Brown, Adnan Hozdic, and Josh Slater are all sophomores. Michael Teller returns from a medical redshirt last year.

Show Me Numbers: Lipscomb's returning players made fewer than 65% of their free throws. The Bisons also lose over 70% of their shot blocking. On the plus side, Lipscomb has the fourth-best returning roster of 3-point shooters, behind Belmont, Upstate, and Kennesaw. How the extra foot will impact them remains to be seen. Lipscomb is 33-5 at home in the last three years.

Quick Analysis: Get used to hearing about how young Lipscomb is. With two seniors and no juniors, Lipscomb's roster looks a lot like the one Billy Gillespie inherited at Kentucky. The Wildcats were five games off from Tubby Smith's final year, attributed mostly to inexperience. That said, five of the sophomores have played significant minutes, either last year or the year before. One advantage Lipscomb might have, but is difficult to quantify in advance, is their tendency to play some of the best defense in the conference. With the extended 3-point line, and more than a few players still learning their way around the offensive end, Coach Scott Sanderson's defense might be this team's saving grace this year.

Stat Projection: Lipscomb's projected PEP (1.14) and PEG (78.57) are near the middle of the conference. Alma mater, hail.

Elvis Has Entered the Building

I just finished reading Kyle Whelliston's pre-season essay series. What I do as a hobby, he does for a living.

Why would anybody pay somebody to write about mid-major basketball? Check out Kyle. Not only is he passionate about the subject, but he can also write circles around 98% of the published English-speaking world.

Next up: Lipscomb preview.

Thumbnail Preview -- Kennesaw State

Since the season starts this weekend, I'd better get cracking on these team previews.

Last Year: 10-20 overall, 7-9 in conference. Ineligible for the conference tournament during reclassification despite finishing seventh.

Losses: Ronell Wooten and Shawn Stegall graduated. KSU also lost three role players to transfer: Tanner Jacobs to Northern Kentucky, Keonte Keith to Columbus State, and Ryan Daugherty to Life College.

Key Returners: John-Michael Nickerson in the post and Kelvin McConnell outside. Nickerson led the team in blocked shots last year and McConnell was their best 3-point shooter.

Show Me Numbers: Kennesaw was second in the league last year in 3-point ratio (number of 3's attempted / total FG attempts). That number probably needs to come down this year, since last year the Owls made less than 31% of their 3's, and the line is a foot farther back this year. Kennesaw also played the third-fastest tempo in the league last year. Kennesaw has one of only two returning rosters that made fewer than 40% of its FG's last year.

Quick Analysis: If you are a Kennesaw State fan, you probably don't want to hear the words "regression to the mean." Take three starters off last year's overachieving team, move the three-point line back one foot, and the numbers do not look good. Kennesaw does have one strong suit that doesn't show up in the box score, however -- coach Tony Ingle. The man can flat-out coach. The school believes in him, having awarded him a contract extension in the off-season. Plus, the roster has nine newcomers, a group KSU fans are hoping will form the nucleus of the school's first foray into postseason play come 2010.

Stat projection: 1.08 PEP, 77.53 PEG, 0.94 PPP, assuming last year's 72.0 tempo. All three numbers fall between 7th and 10th in the conference.

Mid Major Top 25

Day jobs being what they are, I'm still working on the next batch of previews. Next up, Kennesaw State.

That said, I found today that Belmont is #18 in the pre-season Mid-Major Top 25. Jacksonville is in the ARV category. As I mentioned in the preview, with the Dolphins' non-conference gauntlet, barring an upset they might not get a lot of attention going into January. But they are deep, hungry, and good.

Oh, and Lipscomb beat Freed-Hardeman by 4 in exhibition play last night. Hanging on to beat an NAIA team -- woo hoo. Alma mater hail.

About This Here Election Thing . . .

What I think right now: John McCain is about 2 points closer to Barack Obama than the national and state polls indicate. The final margin in the popular vote will end up in the 3-5 point range.

What I think will happen tomorrow: In addition to the states he's almost certain to win, Obama will pick up Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and probably New Hampshire. Indiana will go for McCain. I don't know what will happen in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, or Ohio. But for McCain to win, he needs all of the solid red states, all of the "I don't know" states, AND either Pennsylvania or Colorado plus Virginia. Even if McCain only loses the nationwide popular vote by 3 points -- the most optimistic estimate I've seen -- I don't see how he can reach deep enough into the "probably blue" list of states to win.

What I'm doing tomorrow: For President, McCain. Too many people in both parties have demonstrated their inability to govern to make me believe that one party should monopolize the executive branch. McCain is most likely to pull from the deepest bench to find people to do the actual governing. For U. S. Senate, Bruce Lunsford. All I know about Mitch McConnell is that he was responsible for steering the bail-out bill through the Republican side of the Senate. For me, that's enough of a reason to fire him. For Congress, Ed Whitfield. Yes, I know, he promised when elected in 1994 that he would only serve 3 terms. If the Democrats had a worthwhile candidate to run against him, that might be enough to pull me in. But so far, not so good. For State House, Tim Thompson. Close call here, but for me the tiebreaker is casinos. For State Senate, Joey Pendleton. I'm not usually a big fan of incumbents, but for me a challenger needs to represent more of a change-of-pace if he wants to replace an experienced legislator. Again, a close call.

What I'll Be Watching Tomorrow: Exit poll demographics. How many 18-34 year olds will really come to the polls? The Obama people are banking on them, and they can ask President Howard Dean how well that typically works. U. S. Senate races. If Lunsford beats McConnell, look out. That probably means a nine-seat pick-up for the Democrats. I think +6 is way more likely, with McConnell, Saxby Chambliss, Norm Coleman, and Elizabeth Dole hanging on.

Bold Prediction: Obama wins the Electoral College 301-237 and the popular vote 71 million to 66 million (about 50 1/2 to 47 percent).

Thumbnail Preview -- Jacksonville

Last Year: 18-13 overall, 12-4 in conference. Lost to Belmont in the tournament finals.

Key Returners: Just about everybody. Nine letter winners are back, including all five starters. Marcus Allen and Ben Smith were on my all-conference lists last year.

Show Me Numbers: The numbers look quite good for Jacksonville this year. They project to be in the top 3 in several key stats, including 2-point shooting, FT shooting, and preventing turnovers. They are also the second-most experienced team in the league, replacing only 157 out of 2,050 used possessions.

Quick Analysis: The Jacksonville Dolphins are deep, experienced, and hungry. They come off last year's conference finals defeat in great shape to make another deep run. Expectations are high, and their non-conference schedule is tough -- both good signs, since it is easier to get big-time non-conference games if the other team thinks you'll contribute 20+ wins to their RPI. One possible Achilles heel is the 3-ball, where they project to shoot under 32%. But since they shoot relatively few 3's for an A-Sun team (barely over 30% of FG attempts), if they can play from the lead they'll be fine.

Stat Projection: PEP 1.12, PEG 78.40, both good for fourth. They will also be in the top 3 defensively.

Will the Election Be Fair?

I don't expect the American people to simply bend to my will like sheep. But is it too much to ask that the election be conducted in a fair way, with a voting process that allows differences of opinion to be expressed and weighed appropriately?

Apparently so.

According to Kenneth Arrow, a 1972 Nobel Prize-winning economist, it is mathematically impossible to construct a voting system by which five basic standards of "fairness" are satisfied. The standards:

-- Non-dictatorship. The system should allow for multiple opinions, not simply reflecting the opinion of one voter.

-- Universality. The election should result in a single, unique ordering of the choices every time the individual choices are expressed the same way.

-- Independence. Two choices should always finish in the same order no matter what other choices are offered. (Think Ross Perot '92 or Ralph Nader '00.)

-- Positive Association. Getting a higher ranking from an individual voter should always result in a higher overall ranking. (No "tactical voting.")

-- Sovereignty. Every candidate on the ballot should be able to finish in any possible order.

According to Arrow's Theorem, if there are at least two voters, and each voter has at least three choices, at least one standard of "fairness" will be violated. Whether it's the Electoral College, the BCS, the NCAA tournament selection process, or simply drawing names out of a hat, there will always be something to criticize.

So could our election system be better-run? Almost certainly. But will it ever be "fair?" Not in a million years.

Thumbnail Preview -- Florida Gulf Coast

Last Year: 10-21 overall, 6-10 in conference

Losses: Just about everybody

Key Returner: Delvin Franklin started 15 conference games and averaged 27+ MPG for the year. Yup, that's about it.

Show Me Numbers: FGCU numbers are hard to come by, because they turn over so much of the roster. Their roster has 8 freshman, 3 new Juco transfers, and a transfer from Michigan. Thus, I'm basing my guess about their stats on what is typical for an A-Sun newcomer. Salt to taste.

Quick Analysis: I don't know if you can call it a "rebuilding year" when you only have two guys back. They might be good; they might not. Last year, the A-Sun was a young conference, so newcomers have a chance to shine. We'll see what a full roster of new people is capable of. In this conference, a "replacement level" roster lands them about in the middle, but that may be a bit optimistic. Or not.

Stat Projection: 1.10 PEP is middle of the pack. 76.95 PEG on a relatively slow pace is slightly below-average. But defensive conditioning might be an issue with so many freshmen.

Thumbnail Preview -- East Tennessee State Men

Last Year: 19-13 overall, 11-5 in conference

Losses: Travis Strong, Andrew Reed, Kenyona Swader

Key Returners: Courtney Pigram, Kevin Tiggs, Mike Smith, and Jocolby Davis all averaged between 19.9 and 33.3 minutes per game.

Show Me Numbers: ETSU loses half of its 3-point attempts from last year. The Bucs were second in the conference in FT shooting last year. Like Belmont, they lose some reliability at the FT line, but their returning players shoot better than 70%, which for this league is still pretty good.

Quick Analysis: ETSU's history of running a short bench. 7 guys played close to 90% of their minutes in conference play. Four of the seven guys are back, but the rest of the roster is unproven. If their untested players are conference-level replacements, this could be a problem, especially if they play the up-tempo style they are accustomed to. This team will be made or broken on the defensive end of the floor. Slow the pace down just a touch, guard the fire out of the ball, and make good decisions offensively, and they should be fine.

Stat Projection: Offensively, the Bucs' projected 1.05 PEP and 77.80 PEG rank near the bottom of the conference, tied with Mercer for sixth among teams eligible for the conference tournament. They can, however, make up for the lack of offensive punch if they can defend. The big warning flag in the numbers is that they don't have much of a margin for error.

Thumbnail Preview -- Campbell Men

Campbell

Last Year: 10-20 overall, 5-11 in conference

Losses: 30-game starter Reggie Bishop. Also Jake Wolfheil and Julius Perkins, plus several depth guys.

Key Returners: Jonathan Rodriguez, who last year got my unofficial vote for Player of the Year. Also back are Kyle Vejraska and Junard Hartley.

Show Me Numbers: Returning Campbell players made over 50% of their 2-point shots last year, but less than 32% of their 3's. Campbell lost 1/2 of their non-Rodriguez rebounding to graduation.

Quick Analysis: Jonathan Rodriguez is to Campbell what Eddie Ard was for Lipscomb. He's a really good player, but he needs a supporting cast around him to take some of the defensive pressure off. Thus, this year Campbell's success will hinge on how well they play in the paint. Inside shooting, combined with offensive and defensive rebounding will be the key stats to watch.

Stat Projection: On paper, Campbell looks pretty good. Their 1.21 projected PEP is second-best in the A-Sun. They also project to be 4th in FG% and second in FT%. If they play good defense and pick their spots from 3-point range, they'll definitely be higher in the standings than last year. I'm not quite ready to declare them the second-best team in the conference, but look for them to wear home jerseys on the first day of the A-Sun tournament.

Thumbnail Preview -- Belmont Men

Belmont

Last year: 25-9 overall, 14-2 in conference. Finished first in the conference, won the conference tournament, gave Duke all they wanted in the NCAA's.

Losses: Justin Hare, Will Peeples, Andrew House, Stefan Baskin

Key Returners: Everybody else, really, but especially Shane Dansby.

Show Me Numbers: Belmont's returning roster shot just 64.5% from the FT line last year. 8 returning players averaged 10 or more minutes per conference game, and all but one played every game.

Quick Analysis: Belmont will miss Peeples' rebounding almost as much as they miss Hare's shooting. Last year, Belmont led the conference with both a 1.09 PPP and a 1.23 PEP, and they project to have similar numbers this year. Hare is a big loss, but with what they have coming back, watch out. Give those eight returning guys another year of experience, and they might actually be better. The keys will be free throw shooting and rebounding. Get used to hearing this: In a guard-oriented conference, how your big guys do in the middle and on the glass makes all the difference.

Stat projection (at the same pace as last year): 1.24 PEP, 88.92 PEG, both the highest in the conference.

Welcome

Welcome to what is, according to Google, the only blog in the entire Internet devoted to the Atlantic Sun Conference. We will pay special attention to basketball teams, but will take a look at other sports as the opportunity arises.

You'll notice a lot of statistics on this site, for several reasons. One, I'm an inveterate numbers geek. Two, I'm a cheapskate, so I rely on box scores and stat sheets to compensate for the fact that I live too far away to see many games. Three, there is a lot in the numbers that doesn't often get discussed, especially in a conference as small as the A-Sun.

In particular, when we discuss basketball, you'll see a couple of stats I call "PEG" and "PEP." "PEP" stands for "Positive Events per Possession" and "PEG" is "Positive Events per Game." These are in the tempo-free family of stats. On other sites (Basketball Prospectus, BBState, etc.) look for the word "Efficiency" and you'll get the idea.

I'm hoping to post a team-by-team preview of the season in the next couple of weeks. (Maybe a team a day, or one team per post, or something else). That said, I also have a full-time job and two other blogs, so if things aren't as regular as you might like hang with me. I'll do the best I can.

Off we go.

I'm a Happy Boy

Sports Night, that 45-episode half-hour drama-dy that introduced the TV viewing public to dialogue magician Aaron Sorkin, is out with a 10th Anniversary DVD set.

If you remember the series from the late 90's, you know why this is such a happy thing.

If you've never seen Sports Night, do it. Now. Never mind the stellar cast (Robert Guillaume, Felicity Huffman, Peter Krause, and my favorites Sabrina Lloyd and Joshua Malina). Even if you're not a sports fan, don't worry; the TV show the characters are making are just the platform. The appeal is in the characters and the story.

If you're still not convinced, consider: this is the series that convinced NBC to make the first two seasons of The West Wing.

Two seasons. 45 episodes. One of the two or three best TV series of the decade.

September Baseball

Since the World Series has been an anti-climactic coronation of the American League Champion four of the last five years, as a National League fan the last weekend of September has become the highlight of the baseball season.

And once again, the NL sets up what promises to be the most exciting weekend of baseball this year.

The races are not quite as dicey as last year, where we went into Thursday with zero spots clinched and seven teams in the running. This year the Cubs are in and the Dodgers' magic number is 1. But the NL East is hairy again, with the Phillies 1.5 up on the Mets, who are tied with Milwaukee for the Wild Card. Houston is 3 1/2 out of the WC with 5 to go.

Don't look for any live blogs the year, though. San Diego has been auditioning rookies since June. The only drama left for Padres fans is whether we can split this weekend and avoid a 100-loss season.

But kudos to the Minnesota Twins for making the American League at least a little bit relevant this weekend. A half-game deficit going into the weekend should be fun to watch. The rest of the AL? Locked-up weeks ago.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Batting pitchers makes for closer games. Closer games make for closer pennant races. And half (or more) of the fun of a playoff is watching the teams get there.

So I'll be watching a lot of baseball this weekend. After that -- who knows?

Who even cares?

Back from Hiatus

The SHC is in its Tournament of Champions. 2 days down, four more next week, then we crown this year's winner.

Lipscomb soccer is underway. Not much to write about early on. The women are doing some better. They had a really strong game against UT-Chattanooga, where the actually had more scoring chances (27-23) but fell 3-1. From a program that typically gives up 3 or 4 times more chances than they create, this is a good sign. Especially so for All-Conference goalie Katie Shelton. The fewer saves she is forced to make, the better.

The men are having a solid year, even as they stand 1-4. They were basically run off the field by Louisville yesterday (no surprise, since the Cardinals are ranked #20 in the country). But even with a 5-2 final score and a 30-8 Scoring Chance advantage for Louisville, Lipscomb managed to keep it a one-goal game into the final 10 minutes. This coming off a 3-2 overtime loss to Navy where they played pretty even (31-23 Navy in chances, including 11 off-sides by the Midshipmen).

Lipscomb's bread and butter is its offense. And the numbers indicate that it's beginning to come together.

The Presidential election is getting weirder by the minute. Last time I checked in, Obama was a prohibitive favorite. Now John McCain has taken the lead in the national polls. As of this writing, he's up 2.9 points -- well within the 4.1% margin of error, but still. But even so, McCain is still a 5-3 underdog in the Electoral College. According to fivethrityeight.com, which analyzes state polls, McCain has about a 3 out of 4 chance to win Florida. If he does that, though, he still only has a slightly better than 50-50 shot at putting together enough electoral votes to win. And if he loses Florida, that's the ball game. Are we on course for another 2000, where the popular vote winner loses the Electoral College? Stay tuned.

One Quick Thought on the Presidential Election

From Randy Pausch's "Last Lecture." He was talking about men courting women, but it also applies to politicians courting voters.

"Completely ignore what they say. Only pay attention to what they do."

Hmmmm. "None of the above" is looking better and better.

Book Update

I'll be signing copies of I'm Getting Better on Monday, July 21, from 11:30 until 2:00 at the Todd County Public Library in Elkton. If you're in the neighborhood, come by and say hello. If you buy a book directly from me, it's only $8. You get a discount on the book, and I get to meet a reader. Win, win!

So far, we've sold 45 copies. Well on our way to 100.

No More Blogging For a While

I'll be on a hiatus from this blog for the next several weeks. The annual Summer Hiatus Challenge is due to get underway on July 28, and I have a lot of writing to do between now and then. I'll still be updating the book blog from time to time, as the urge strikes me, so if you're looking for new content that's the place to go.

I might check back in now and again as the Lipscomb soccer season gets underway, but even that won't be until late August. If something earth-shattering happens, I'll probably comment on it, but otherwise it'll take a lot to get me out of the SHC bunker, at least until the game is completely written.

See you in September.

Jeopardy Geek for President

This makes my day.

If the 2008 election is about Identity Politics, I have just found my guy.

Viva Fight Club!

I'm Still Alive

I try to make it a point not to blog unless I have, you know, something to say. Apparently, that is not exactly standard procedure for the Internet, where having a reason to write is not a limiting factor in what ends up on the screen.

So here I am.

Just to warn you, I won't be doing this often. If there is a new post here, or at the book site over on Wordpress, it will be because something has my attention and interest.

In the news today, nothing happened. The Supreme Court wrapped up its session by striking down a ridiculous handguun ban (and implicitly endorsing Texas' Castle Doctrine), Germany advanced to the finals of Euro 2008, and somehwere it rained.

Since I last posted, a couple of Fight Club veterans won money on The Show. Dave is a likely TOC candidate, but Sven hit a rough patch on Day 2 and was out.

In the latest batch of polling, Barack Obama leads John McCain 47.9% to 42.8%, good for around 315 Electoral Votes, give or take.

My new favorite song is "Shattered." It's off an album by Laura, a contestant on Belgian Idol. Aaron Sain -- children's minister at Tusculum -- was one of the writers. I think there might be a book in it. We'll see.

Are You Smarter Than My Five-Year-Old?

Quoth Erica, upon finding a barette on the floor at church Sunday night:

"It's a pink barette, so it must belong to a girl."

Because boys only wear blue ones?

My Take, For What It's Worth, On the Presidential Race

Warning -- This post is complete amateur hour. I have absolutely no credentials to be making these statements other than having read a lot. Take with as much salt as you need.

So the race for the White House is on, and the two parties have finally decided which horses to back. At this point, Barack Obama is, if you'll pardon the pun, a "Big Brown at the Belmont" favorite. Right now, it looks like the only way he can lose if he comes up gimpy in the final turn.

But here's the kicker. A Presidential election is not a horse race. It's 56 little horse-races all run on the same day. (Why 56? 50 states, plus DC, plus the five congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine who award electoral votes separately from the state-wide winner.)

So, John McCain doesn't have to win all 56 races to be President. He doesnt even have to win most. He just has to win the right ones.

Let's start with the ones that are already over. Based on past elections, one can safely say that Obama will carry Illinois, Maryland, Vermont, Hawaii, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusettes, and the District of Columbia, for a total of 88 electoral votes. McCain can likewise count on Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, most of Nebraska, Alaska, North Dakota, and Oklahoma, for a total of 39. Obama might be able to carry the city of Omaha, which would turn Nebraska purple, but it's nowhere near certain.

That leaves 411 electoral votes in play, provided Obama picks Kansas governor Kathleen Sebilius for his running mate. If he doesn't give Kansas to McCain, making the score 88-45 with 405 outstanding.

I did an analysis of how states tend to behave compared to the national popular vote in the last 7 presidential elections. The states listed above are historically at least 10 points more Democratic or 20 points more Republican than the national average. My current home state of Kentucky projects to favor the Republican by just over 10 points this year, meaning if Obama wins the popular vote by 7 points, McCain wins Kentucky by 3.

For the record, these states are 10 to 20 points inside the Republican camp: Alabama, Texas, Indiana, South Dakota, Mississippi, South Carolina, Montana, Kentucky, and North Carolina. If McCain wins all of these states (which I think he will), that's another 133 electoral votes, plus the one I think he'll get in Omaha. Likewise, if Obama sweeps the "likely Democratic" category, he picks up New Jersey, Maine, Washington, Delaware, Minnesota, California, and Connecticut, for total of 105. Now our Electoral Scoreboard sits at 193-178 in favor of Obama, with 167 still to be had.

Of the remaining states, Georgia, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and Tennessee have favored Republicans by a wider margin than Obama has over McCain in the nationwide polling average at realclearpolitics.com. As long as Obama's lead doesn't get over 6 points, McCain will probably carry those states. Of course, unless Obama chokes on a pretzel or something, McCain can probably write off Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Those five states all favor Democtaric candidates by 2 to 3 points, meaning McCain would need to lead the nationwide voting by a few points to have a realistic look at picking them up.

That brings our total to Obama 255, McCain 196.

This is starting to look like the Florida recount, isn't it? Every time we stop to count, one guy is ahead, and here we are trying to figure out how the other guy can not just close the gap, but pull ahead.

McCain needs to carry all but 15 of the outstanding Electoral votes. They are in Florida (27), Louisiana (9), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (20), Missouri (11), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5), and New Mexico (5).

For McCain, a running mate from one of these states will help. Bobby Jindal (governor of Louisiana), or, if you're feeling brave, Tim Pawlenty (governor of Minnesota) anyone? If his strategy is to eat away at Obama's overall lead, a female running mate would go a long way toward reminding women of what happened to Hillary Clinton in the primaries. It would especially help if she comes from a state that's in play. Christie Todd Whitman (former governor of New Jersey), perhaps?

Of course, Obama could put the whole thing to bed with a solid VP choice of his own. If he goes with Bill Richardson of New Mexico, that will deliver his state and probably tip Florida into the Obama column. Likewise, if Obama taps Jennifer Granholm (term-limited governor of Michigan), that's probably the ballgame as it neutralizes a lot of the damage from the primary season. Ted Strickland of Ohio also makes a lot of Electoral College sense.

By the way, I'm convinced that the next Vice President is a governor (or former governor) right now. Two U. S. Senators haven't teamed up to win an election since JFK & LBJ, and I don't see the pattern changing.

So, for John McCain to win, he has to get is VP choice right, hope Obama misses on his, and focus the fight on battles he can win. He also needs to campaign hard "down-ticket," rebuilding the Republican brand.

McCain also needs to be aware of Obama's strategy and find a way to beat it. Obama won the nomination by out-Clinton-ing Hillary Clinton. He took her distinctives (historic demographics, wonkishness, large-crowd rallies, dressing for a corporate boardroom, and fundraising and infrastructure advantages) and made them his own. McCain's strength is in retail politics, connecting with the Everyman. Watch for more pictures of Obama playing basketball, smoking, losing the tie, and playing with his kids. He already out-Clinton-ed Clinton. Now he's going to try to out-McCain McCain.

McCain also has to overcome history. So far, only six U. S. Presidents have served 8 years, then lived to turned the keys over to a successor of the same party. Those six -- Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Jackson, Grant, and Reagan. Clinton, Eisenhower, Monroe, and Wilson all tried and failed. And interestingly, of the successful 6, only two were succeeded by a two-term President (Jefferson and Madison).

My guess right now is that Obama wins with 342 Electoral Votes. But we shall see come November.

Book Update

The new book blog is up and running.

Thank you to the Claytons and everybody at Weather's Drugs for your wonderful hospitality at the book signing last week. If I can figure out how to post pictures, I will.

Thoughts on Jefferson Davis' 200th Birthday

Todd County has a lot to be proud of.

From its award-winning schools, beautiful scenery, friendly and welcoming people, and even an award-winning weekly newspaper, this is a wonderful place to live. During my time here, I have experienced good weather, better neighbors, and the best of pleasant country life.

Todd County even has a place in history. In 1905, U. S. Poet Laureate Robert Penn Warren was born in Guthrie. A museum, a WKU Center for Robert Penn Warren Studies, and even a commemorative postage stamp honor his contributions to the literary arts. What’s more, Todd County has produced two major league baseball players, Hugh Poland and Kent Greenfield. Greenfield won 41 games for the New York Giants and Boston Braves in the 1920’s. Poland spent parts of five seasons as a major league catcher.

Todd County certainly has a lot to be proud of. And then there’s Jefferson Davis.

“Jeff,” as he is known to some locals, was born in Fairview. He did not live there long, moving to Mississippi at age two and not returning for almost eighty years (and then only for a weekend). Yet somehow, he is a celebrated figure in the history of Todd County.

Make no mistake. Like any human life, there are many facets to the Jefferson Davis story. He was a war hero. (Of course, so was Benedict Arnold, but we musn’t let one event cloud the rest of the story overmuch, right?) He was politically well-connected, serving as both a Congressman and Senator from Mississippi. He was Zachary Taylor’s son-in-law and Franklin Pierce’s Secretary of War. He was even the first to publicly suggest the building of a transcontinental railroad.

But we must not – in good conscience, we cannot – overlook the fact that Jefferson Davis led the most dangerous insurrection ever mounted against the United States of America. When threatened with the prospect of African slaves living side-by-side in free society with Caucasians, Davis took thirteen states to war to prevent it. And in case one might suspect other motives (states rights, etc.), consider Davis’ own words:

“Everything around . . . [speaks] eloquently of the wisdom of the men who founded these colonies – their descendants . . . contrasted strongly, as did their history and present power, stand out in bold relief, when compared with those of the inhabitants of Central and Southern America.

Chief among the reasons for this . . . the self-reliant hardihood of their forefathers who, when but a handful, found themselves confronted by hordes of savages, yet proudly maintained the integrity of their race and asserted its supremacy over the descendants of Shem, in whose tents they had come to dwell. They preferred to encounter toil, privation and carnage, rather than debase their lineage and race. Their descendants of that pure and heroic blood have advanced to the high standard of civilization attainable by that type of mankind. Stability and progress, wealth and comfort, art and science, have followed their footsteps.

Among our neighbors of Central and Southern America, we see the Caucasian mingled with the Indian and the African. They have the forms of free government, because they have copied them. To its benefits they have not attained, because that standard of civilization is above their race. Revolution succeeds Revolution, and the country mourns that some petty chief may triumph, and through a sixty days' government ape the rulers of the earth. Even now the nearest and strongest of these American Republics, which were fashioned after the model of our own, seems to be tottering to a fall, and the world is inquiring as to who will take possession; or, as protector, raise and lead a people who have shown themselves incompetent to govern themselves.” – Jefferson Davis, addressing the Democratic Convention at Portland, Maine (August 24, 1858) [Emphasis Added]

For Davis, the primary issue in the Civil War was not states’ rights, personal property, culture, or even the propagation of slavery. Davis was fighting for racial purity.

And Todd County wants to honor this? Our award-winning newspaper wants to celebrate the 200th birthday of a traitorous bigot? I mean, it’s one thing to build a park and an obelisk that not-so-subtly reminds one of the Washington Monument, but that was over 90 years ago, and what’s done is done. But by continuing to celebrate this man, we tacitly endorse his legacy and ideals.

To me, the truly sad part of this story is that for some reason, people in Todd County feel the need to honor Davis, as though if we don’t celebrate him, we don’t have anything else to be proud of. That notion I will challenge loudly. By most standards, I haven’t lived here long – just over three years. But I’ve been here long enough to know that this is a wonderful place, one that anyone of any skin color, any national heritage, or any religion can be justifiably proud to call home.

Todd County has a lot to be proud of. We don’t need Jefferson Davis to validate our place in history. We’re better than this.

Well, That Was Fun

After beating Georgia on Friday, Lipscomb played Georgia Tech even for 7 innings Saturday night before finally falling 6-3. In the re-match Sunday afternoon, Georgia had its way with the Bisons, 14-3. All in all, a good weekend, better than anyone dared hope for.

On another note, I had my first book signing today. Major thank-yous to the Claytons, who own and operate Weather's Drugs in Elkton. They were wonderful hosts. Total book sales are now at 15, with a possibility for more come camp time in two weeks.

Look for my book blog at benwiles.wordpress.com as soon as I can get the confirmation bugs worked out.

Lipscomb @ Georgia

3:00 p.m. -- 4-2 Georgia after 2. Caleb Joseph homered in the first, but a Brandon Cadavid error prolonged the bottom of the first for the Bulldogs, eventually plating 4 unearned runs. Lipscomb got one back in the top of the second. More later.

3:30 p.m. -- Top of 5, 4-4 tie. Lipscomb got a 2-run homer in the top of the fourth from Blake Bratcher to tie. Now they have a lead-off walk in the fifth, and Georgia looks nervous. Rex Brothers has settled down after a shaky couple of innings. Lipscomb is in business, 1st and 2nd, nobody out. Stay tuned.

3:45 p.m. -- As soon as I post the last entry, Lipscomb goes on a 4-run rally. Shane Simpkins capped the rally with a 2-run bomb. They lead 8-4 after 5. Repeat after me: I will not get my hopes up. I will not get my hopes up. I will not get my hopes up . . .

4:05 p.m. -- Lipscomb got a run on a wild pitch i nthe sixth, but Georgia just answered with a 2-run homer. 9-6, 1 on, 1 out, bottom of 6. Pitching change: Rex Brothers is done. Chris Burnett is on.

4:30 p.m. -- DOH! No change in score, but there almost was. Jo-jo Guitierrez just belted one deep to left field, but the Georgia outfielder climbed the wall and pulled it back in. Top 8, 2 out, 9-6 Lipscomb.

4:45 p.m. -- Here we go. Georgia has 1st and 2nd, 1 out, and the SEC Player of the Year up. Lipscomb brings in Kyle Tognazinni. Base hit Gordon, Georgia is within 2.

4:46 p.m. -- Never mind. Poithres bangs into a 1-4-3 DP to end the threat. 9-7 Lipscomb, End of 8.

4:57 p.m. -- A sacrifice fly puts Lipscomb back up 10-7. 3-run lead, 3 outs to go.

5:00 p.m. -- Ground ball to Jo-Jo. Ground ball to Ben at second. Pop-up to Bratcher.

BALL GAME! BISONS WIN! BISONS WIN!!!!!

Book Signing

My first book signing will be Monday, June 2 at noon at Weather's Drugs in Elkton. Come on over -- both of you.

And some not-so-good news: because of the increase in the postage rates, the cost of mailed book is now $10. It's still $8 in person, though, so if you want one come find me.

Bisons Win! Bisons Win!

Th-uh-uh-uh-uh!!

Bisons!!

Win!!

Wow. What a ballgame. Lipscomb 10, Gardner-Webb 9 in 15 innings.

The Bisons fell behind 4-0 early, but rallied for 6 runs in the 6th. The lead held until the 9th, but when Lipscomb found itself holding a 2-run lead 3 outs from the NCAA tournament, Gardner-Webb would not go gentle into the Big South Conference. The Bulldogs rallied to tie the game, forcing extras. Each team scored in the 13th, setting up what may be the most exciting inning of college baseball ever.

G-W started the inning by knocking Lipscomb ace Brandon McClurg out of the ballgame. With the runners on the corners and two outs, Fulginiti doubled home the go-ahead run. After an error plated the Bulldogs' 9th run, Lipscomb catcher and tournament MVP Caleb Joseph picked Fulginiti off third.

In the bottom of the 15th, Lipcomb started with 2 hits. A bunt set up second and third with 1 out. RBI single and groundout tie the game. Two more walks load the bases for Shane Simpkins, who shot a base hit through the right side for the win.

Lipscomb moves on to the Athens, Georgia regional where they will play the host school first.

Soccer Rant

OK, I'm ranting here. I know. But it's my blog, and I just don't want to talk about yesterday's Lipscomb baseball game. So there.

On a soccer field, there is a d-shaped space at the top of the penalty area. The curved line of the "D" is called the "penalty arc." Basically, it creates a buffer zone during penalty kicks, preventing opposing players from encroaching on the kicker.

Colloquially the "penalty arc" has come to refer to the entire area inside the "D."

Here's the problem -- that space is not an arc, and there is no extra penalty for committing a foul there. Speaking geometrically, it's a "circle segment." What's more, since the Encroachment Prevention Circle Segment extends more than 18 yards from the Goal Line, it is not part of the penalty area. It's just another part of the field, put there mostly to confuse idiot soccer parents who don't know any better.

Seriously. This space really needs a new name, something without the word "penalty" in it.

Suggestions?

Kearney High School

Kearney High School in Kearney, Nebraska was named the top athletic program in the state by cnnsi.com for the 2006-07 school year.

My dad, Class of nineteen-mumblety-seven, played baseball there.

Amanda Littlejohn and Campbell to Play in NCAA Tournament

I admit I was a bit disappointed in how Lipscomb's softball season turned out. They won a share of the conference title, but then went 2-and-Q in the conference tournament. 29-26 is still a good year, especially by Lipscomb's standards.

But if you're looking for feel-good stories going into this year's NCAA tournament, look no farther than Campbell's sophomore catcher Amanda Littlejohn. A two-year starter for the Lady Camels, she holds the school's single-season RBI record and was named to the All-Tournament team at last week's A-Sun Conference Tournament.

She is also a cancer survivor, enduring surgery and treatment for Stage III melanoma during the summer between her freshman and sophomore years. At last report she is cancer-free, but still faces some long odds. The five-year survival rate for those with Amanda's type of cancer is 40-50%.

I hope Lipscomb fans will join me in wishing Amanda all the best in her fight with cancer. And if the Lady Camels can make some noise in the NCAA's, so much the better.

Book Sales Begin

My new book, I'm Getting Better: Reflections on a Broken Heart, went on sale this week. It's $8 if you buy it from me in person, $9 if I have to mail it somewhere. I'll even sign it if you want.

So far I've sold 2. Stay tuned.

A-Sun APR

The A-Sun survived the latest round of APR sanctions relatively unscathed. The only teams hit: about-to-be former member Gardner-Webb (1.85 scholarships in football, 0.08 in men's soccer), Mercer (1 men's basketball scholarship), Kennesaw State (1.26 indoor track scholarships), and Lipscomb (0.15 in baseball, 0.76 in soccer).

This is the third consecutive year Lipscomb has had baseball scholarships reduced.

There appears to be no danger of anybody falling under the "historical penalties" provisions of the rules.

Steve Potts Leaving Lipscomb for Pepperdine

Yes, I know that Steve Potts is stepping down as Lipscomb's AD to take an Associate AD position at Pepperdine.

I suspect that if you're reading this, you have heard by now.

What I don't know is why. In athletic administration, the move is a slight upgrade in conference, but a demotion in position. At best it's a wash.

There has to be more to this story. But nobody's telling, and I don't know enough to make even an educated guess.

Guilt By Association? Not At Mercer

Paul Johnson has been added to the coaching staff at Mercer.

Like new head coach Bob Hoffman, Johnson was an assistant coach for a team hit with NCAA sanctions. While Johnson was at Louisiana-Lafayette, two seasons worth of records were vacated because of academic violations that rendered a player ineligible.

The NCAA found that neither Johnson nor any other member of the basketball staff knew about the violations when they happened.

Mercer head coach Bob Hoffman was in a similar situation when he was on Kelvin Sampson's staff at Oklahoma. There, the head coach and other assistants were flouting NCAA phone call rules. Like Johnson, Hoffman was cleared, but the resulting house-cleaning left him looking for work somewhere else.

Leave it to the A-Sun to attract coaches who play by the rules, even as those around them don't.

Save the Planet? Save the People

On her blog, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi says, “To minister to the needs of God’s creation is an act of worship. To ignore those needs is to dishonor the God who made us.”

If you want to fight climate change, there is a Biblical basis for doing so, but this isn't it.

For one, the idea of Creation "needing" people is completely contrary to the Bible. If anything, the reverse is true.

Likewise, the Eden argument doesn't hold up, especially since we don't live there anymore. In fact, the curse texts seem to indicate that "climate change" is an inevitable result of man's sinfulness.

In essence, if you want to save the planet, you have to change the hearts of people.

The best Biblical case I've found for environmental responsibility comes from Ezekiel 34:18-22:

"Is it too slight a thing for you that you should feed in the good pasture, that you must tread down with your feet the rest of your pastures? Or that you should drink of the clear waters, that you must foul the rest with your feet? As for My flock, they must eat what you tread down with your feet and drink what you foul with your feet! Therefore, thus says the Lord God to them, "Behold, I, even I, will judge between the fat sheep and the lean sheep. Because you push with side and with shoulder, and thrust at all the weak with your horns until you have scattered them abroad, therefore, I will deliver My flock, and they will no longer be a prey; and I will judge between one sheep and another.""

The problem God has always had with pollution is not its impact on the Creation itself, but the harm it does to people. Clean water, clean and healthy food, clean air, all are essentials of life. Those who would deprive the poor of those necessities in the name of greed dishonor (and/or disobey) God far more gravely than those who fail to separate their recyclables. If you want to call on wealthy individuals, corporations, governments and societies to meet Biblical obligations, tell them to set their greed aside, provide for the poor, and protect the defenseless.

Then we can all breathe a lot easier.

Call It A Hunch

Earlier, I thought it strange that a team could have the pre-season player of the year and pitcher of the year, yet be picked to finish tenth. If the coaches were right about Lipscomb's talent level, they had to be better than that, right?

Right.

Lipscomb is 21-18 overall, 15-9 in conference, and has a 3-game lead on Mercer in the race for the #1 seed in the conference tournament. Caleb Joseph, the afrementioned Player of the Year, is hitting .377 with an OPS pushing 1.100. Brandon McClurg has an ERA of 2.72, and has yet to allow a home run in 53 innings of work. Not bad when the hitters are holding metal bats.

The softball team is having an unexpectly good year as well, wrapping up the #1 tournament seed this weekend. The Lady Bisons are 16-6 in conference, 27-22 overall. Kim and Alaina Jacobson (no relation that I know of) have been servicable on the mound, but the story has been Abby Keese. The sophomore shortstop has been tearing the cover off the ball, hitting .349 with 14 HR's and an OPS of 1.087.

Good stuff.

One and Done? I'm Stunned

Really now.

I just read an article by Mitch Albom about how the NBA's draft entry rules "make a joke out of college." An espn.com article yesterday whines that top players at top programs are just using college basketball as an extended job interview.

As Bill Cosby might say, "Come on, people."

Big-time college basketball is -- and has always been -- all about the money. How much can you get, and how quickly, before demand for your services is extinguished? Whether it's players taking green handskakes from alumni, coaches making promises to players and schools then jumping when something better comes along, or conferences stacking the NCAA tournament to put the majority of CBS' money in the minority of hands, the "big time" in college basketball is a lesson in self-interest. Do what's best for you, becasue if you don't nobody will.

Now the media is up in arms because the best players are gaming the system for their own benefit? I say it's about time. Players -- particularly poor, city-dwelling, (largely) African-American players -- have been providing free entertainment for corporate junkets and subsidizing scholarships for upper-middle-class white women for decades. If the system is suddenly skewing a little bit in their favor, good. It's about time.

What's especially encouraging about Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Derrick Rose, and the rest of them jumping to the NBA is the attention their one-year sojourn in the land of Dick Vitale is drawing to the contrasts between the "big time" and the rest of the sport. John Calipari ingratiates himself into the seemy underbelly of the Chicago AAU scene to get a player for one year, then parlays that player into a title game and a contract extension. Scott Sanderson and Rick Byrd spend a decade shepherding former NAIA powers into respectable "low-majors," all the while graduating players, turning down offers of "bigger and better," and keeping the school off both the police blotter and the NCAA radar screen.

UCLA and USC can have their one-hit wonders. Give me four years of Eddie Ard and Justin Hare every time. They are what make college basketball fun -- and worth writing about.

Kobayashi Maru, or How to Referee the Last Ten Seconds

In the NC game Monday night, the referees made two pivotal no-calls in the last 10 seconds of the game. Both calls went (ostensibly) in Memphis' favor, but ended up benefiting Kansas in the long run.

1. With 10 seconds left, a Memphis player is frustrated and slams the ball into the floor. The ball bounces 20 feet in the air and skitters away. Ordinarily, this is a technical foul, but with 10 seconds left in a 62-60 game the referee lets it slide. Memphis ends that possession up 3.

2. Then, with Kansas driving to score the tying basket, Memphis tries to foul, hoping to force Kansas to shoot 2 free throws rather than a tying 3-pointer. Again, the fouls are clear to see, but no call. Kansas hits a 3-pointer with 2 seconds left and wins in OT.

Both no-calls were motivated by an unwritten axiom of officiating -- let the players decide the outcome. Swallow the whistle late in close games so that the outcome is decided by players making plays rather than by referees making calls.

But I would argue that this is ultimately a no-win situation for the referee. If he makes either or both calls, he is violating a philosophical principle. But if he swallows his whistle, he is violating the actual rules of the game, which demand that he call what he sees.

The opinion of referees varies widely over what they should do in that circumstance. But while the stated opinions of experienced referees might be many and varied, their behavior is remarkably uniform. Most swallow the whistle, choosing principle over legal code.

But what I'm interested in is not the basketball argument but the philosophical (and ultimately moral and ethical) one.

What do you do in a no-win situation? And what do the choices you make in those situations say about you?

Take, for instance, a contestant on The Price is Right. She's the first spinner in the Showcase Showdown, and she land on 70 cents. She has a choice of spinning again to try to improve her score, or standing pat and hoping for the best. If she goes over $1.00, she's eliminated immediately.

Mathematically, the risk of losing by going over $1.00 is slightly less (a 70% chance) than the risk that one of the other two players will post a better score (a 75% likelihood), so the numbers say spin. But whether it's ignorance of the math, or crowd pressure, or simply conventional wisdom, most people stand pat on 70 cents.

It's a no-win situation; no matter what she does, the poor spinner has at least a 70% chance of losing. But, like the referee above, in a situation where there is a coin-flip type choice, over 90% go the same way.

Another game show example: Over on the Jeopardy boards we talk about a FJ scenario called "Stratton's Dilemma." Basically it goes like this:

1st place: 15,000
Second place: 10,600
Third place: 6,800

The second place player has a choice to make. Do you bet enough to keep 3rd place from passing you, or do you stand pat knowing you need 1st place to be wrong to have a chance anyway and hoping the 3rd place player won't know something the 1st place player doesn't?

According to the J-archive, players in Stratton's Dilemma end up winning the game less than 10% of the time. Yet even though there is just as much mathematical reason to bet small as there is to bet big, most bet at least enough to lock out the 3rd place player.

Again, maybe this indicates ignorance of the math involved. Or maybe this reflects the mindset of a Jeopardy player, namely, "If I have to lose, I'd rather lose because I bet too much than because I bet too little."

I have no conclusions on this yet. But it is curious. Why do people in no-win situations behave so predictably? And what do the choices we make when faced with an undesirable outcome say about us?

Unfinished Basketball Business, Part 2

Here is my ballot for All-Conference in the Atlantic Sun this year:

Player of the Year -- Jonathan Rodriguez, Campbell.

How there is any debate on this at all is mystifying to me. Thomas Sanders won it in the official conference vote (allegedly) conducted by the coaches, and there is a case. In any other year, Sanders' numbers are POY worthy. But while Campbell wasn't exactly UCLA this year, without J-Rod this is a truly bad team. Think New Jersey Tech bad. I might rather have Justin Hare or Eddie Ard taking the big shot at the buzzer, but for the six possessions before that I want Rodriguez touching the ball.

1st Team All Conference -- Forwards: Rodriguez, Thomas Sanders (Gardner-Webb), Marcus Allen (Jacksonville). Guards: Shane Dansby (Belmont), Garfield Blair (Stetson).

Why Marcus Allen over Ben Smith? Allen posted comparable numbers to Smith, but did so in 10 fewer minutes per game. Plus, Allen was 5th in the conference in rebounding, a stat A-Sun observers often overlook but is vital to a team's success.

Why Shane Dansby over Justin Hare? 3 more rebounds per game. Note that this is "just barely," as Hare was my sixth choice for the five-man 1st team.

2nd Team All-Conference -- Forwards: Landon Adler (Florida Gulf Coast), Kevin Tiggs (ETSU), Calvin Henry (Mercer). Guards: Justin Hare (Belmont), Ben Smith (Jacksonville).

Honorable Mention -- Lehman Colbert (Jacksonville), Shaun Stegall (Kennesaw State), Eddie Ard (Lipscomb), Aaron Linn (Gardner-Webb), Grayson Flittner (Gardner-Webb), Shadeen Aaron (Mercer).

And no, I didn't forget James Florence. Nobody can miss that many shots in a year and get any post-season recognition no matter how many go in. I don;t care if you do score 19 points per game. If it takes 23 shots to get there, you're hurting your team.

If anybody has a beef with my ballot, maybe it's Courtney Pigram. I don't see the numbers to put him in the Top 20 in the conference, but I'll hear the case if anybody wants to make it.

Outstanding Freshmen -- Jordan Campbell (Belmont), Brandon Brown (Lipscomb), Ayron Hardy (Jacksonville), Nate Blank (Gardner-Webb), Adnan Hozdic (Lipscomb). Same as the conference voted there.

Coach of the Year -- No problem with Rick Byrd getting it, but I would have voted for Cliff Warren of Jacksonville, with Derek Waugh of Stetson a close second. No way I or anybody else saw that coming. Even in December, we had an idea Belmont could be special, but Jacksonville and Stetson both seriously overperformed. Well done.

Unfinished Basketball Business, Part 1

Mercer has a new coach.

The Bears hired Bob Hoffman away from the NBA D-League's Rio Grande Valley Raptors. Before that, Hoffman had been a head coach for Southern Nazarene's women, and on the men's side at Oklahoma Baptist and Texas-Pan American.

At OBU, Hoffman was known for providing a sanctuary for guys recruited to D-1 schools who didn't get the playing time they expected. His roster was almost exclusively populated with transfers from OU, Oklahoma State, Tulsa, and the like.

Hoffman takes the Mercer job after the Bears were turned down by Barry Hinson (formerly of Missouri State) and Rex Walters of former A-Sun member Florida Atlantic.

As successful as he has been on the court, however, Hoffman comes to Mercer with some baggage. In 2005, Hoffman left UT-PanAm to take a spot on Kelvin Sampson's bench at Oklahoma. There, the coaching staff was embroiled in a phone call scandal that would ultimately cost Sampson two jobs. Hoffman himself made 28 illegal calls in two seasons working under Sampson, but since most were to a long-standing family friend, the NCAA didn't ding him the way they usually do when an assistant coach is implicated in a violation.

No word yet on where Mark Slonaker will end up next year.

Consummatum Est

There it is.

I'm Getting Better: Reflections on a Broken Heart is now off to the printer. I hope to have the first copy in my hand by my birthday in a couple of weeks.

Wow. This feels weird. Granted, there's a lot that this project is not. It's not in the hands of a "real publisher" paying me "real money" so that "real people" can read a "real book." It's only 100 pages, and according to people who know such things the "Self-Improvement" genre is saturated with people way more famous than me writing a lot more than me.

But still. I've written a book. I've actually written a book.

What's next? A marathon?

Book Deadline

My new book is almost finished. If all goes according to plan, the first copy will go to the printer tomorrow. Then I can blog again like a normal human being.

Wish me luck.

Buzzer Beater Update

Chronicling NCAA Tournament buzzer beaters.

I define a "buzzer beater" as a shot that will win or tie where the ball is in the air with less than a second left in the second half or overtime.

Here's the list so far:

Belmont -- MISSED 3-POINTER, Justin Hare. Duke 71, Belont 70.
Drake -- MISSED LAY-UP, Adam Emmenecker. Drake 88, Western Kentucky 88 (end of regulation)
Western Kentucky -- 3-POINTER GOOD, Ty Rogers. Western Kentucky 101, Drake 99 (OT).
Stanford -- MISSED 3-POINTER, Fred Washington. Stanford 71, Marquette 71 (end of regulation).
Butler -- MISSED JUMPER, Michael Green, blocked by Wayne Chism (Tennessee). Tennessee 63, Butler 63 (end of regulation).
Mississippi State -- MISSED 3-POINTER, Jamont Gordon. Memphis 77, Mississippi State 74.

So far, that makes 1-for-6 shooting, 1 of 4 from 3-point range. Credit the defenses for keeping the miracle shots at bay. So far, teams are defending buzzer beaters very well. Rogers was the only player to make one, and his came from about 35 feet away, ata steep angle, and against a double-team.

More as they happen.

Duke 71, Belmont 70

Wow.

Belmont has nothing to hang their heads about.

For one, they came from 10 down in the second half to take a late lead.

Final 5 seconds notwithstanding, Belmont coach Rick Byrd coached Mike Krzyzewski under the table. Belmont has been a team known for it's 3-point shooting all year. Knowing that Duke would want to deny the 3, Belmont ran Princeton-style back-cuts the entire first half. Once Duke adjusted, Belmont was able to get open 3's in the second half.

Abso-smurf-ly brilliant.

Also brilliant? Not shorteneing their bench late in the regular season and postseason. Belmont played 10-deep against Cincinnati and Alabama in November. They played 10-deep against East Tennessee State and Lipscomb in February and March. And they played 10-deep against Duke.

Thus, when All-conference performers Shane Dansby and Justin Hare were held in check most of the night, Andy Wicke, Alex Renfroe, Matthew Dotson, and Henry Harris were able to step up.

A couple of comments about the 104.5 The Zone broadcast. Memo to Kevin Ingram -- there is no "Y" in Duke. The middle two letters are pronounced "OO," not with a long "U." Here's a hint: It rhymes with "Boo."

On another note, the Belmont Media Relations guy was doing the color commentary. Between the grunts and moans, we got to hear the occasional complaint about the referees. Is it just me, or did he soound just like Tim Thompson calling a Vanderbilt basketball game? Or maybe it was Bob Kesling's color guy from Tennessee football season? Either way, welcome to the big time.

This next part is just for me, but you can read it if you want to:

Mike Krzyzewski proved yet again why none of his assistant coaches ever succeed much as head guys. Simply put, his teams and coaches rely on him entirely too much.

Exhibit A -- When Coach K had his hip surgery in the mid-90's, his team went 14-16. With him the previous year, they won 25 games. With him the next year, they won 26. If a coach makes that big a difference to his team, they rely on him way too much. The best thing you can say about Dean Smth is not that he won 879 games, nor is it that his coaching tree is do wide and fruitful. After Dean Smith retired, Bill Guthridge took the next 3 North Carolina teams to the Final 4. Dean Smith built a program that could go on (for a while) without him.

Exhibit B -- In the 2002 Final 4, Duke is playing Maryland. Jason Williams is dribbling near half-court as time winds down in the first half. He turns to the bench behind him to get the play. Meanwhile, the Caner-Medley for Maryland jumps in, steals the ball while Williams' head is turned, and gets a break-away lay-up. The point: If Williams doesn't know what to do late, that's the fault of the coach.

Exhibit C -- Last year, VCU hits a shot to go ahead late in the first-round NCAA game. Rather than hurrying up the floor to get a shot against an unsettled defense, Duke calls time-out. My beef is not that they did the wrong thing, it's that they simply didn't know what to do. They needed Coach K to tell them.

Exhibit D -- Yesterday, Coach K had the flu. For most of the game, his team played like they all had the flu. Never mind that Byrd coached him under the table. Krzyzewski's team needed him, and he didn't "have it" last night. And it almost cost them.

The point: Duke without Coach K is mediocre at best. This is a significant leadership flaw. The difference between a competitor and a leader is how your team does in your absence. Whether this is an intentional part of the Krzyzewski personality or coaching style, or it's simply an overlooked flaw, I don't know.

The paradox of leadership is that the most effective leaders are the ones whose people can live without them. Creating an enviornment where you are indispensible ultimately sets up your organization for failure.

Everybody eventually goes away. What will the people you leave behind do then?

You Heard it Here First

Erica and Katie have made their NCAA tournament picks.

Upset Specials from the 5-Year-Olds:

Katie has American in the Sweet 16, knocking off Tennessee and Butler.
Erica has Austin Peay in the Sweet 16, beating Texas and Saint Mary's to get there.
Katie has Portland State over Kansas. Apparently she has about as much confidence in the Jayhawks and Darren McFarland has.
Erica picked San Diego over Connecticut and Cornell over Stanford.

Katie's Final 4: Louisville, Vanderbilt, Stanford and Duke, with Duke over Louisville in the title game

Erica's Final 4: Tennessee, Georgetown, Memphis, and UCLA, with Georgetown beating Memphis for the title.

Remember, these were the only two three-year-olds in the country to predict the George Mason-Wichita State Sweet 16 game a couple of years ago, so there you go.

My Bracketology turned out "not too bad." I got 63 out of 65 right, and 49 within one seed line. I had Illinois State and New Mexico while the committee put in Oregon and Villanova. The biggest miss in terms of seed line was Vanderbilt. I gave them an 8, the committee put them at 4. Counting Oregon and Illinois State as 3-line misses and Villanova and New Mexico as 1-line misses, my average error was 0.86. The pros generally run in the 0.65-0.75 range. I was also one of a very few to correctly predcit the play-in game teams.

Not bad for an amateur.

My Very Own Bracketology

Because I can, that's why. And because I want to get it on-line before the Selection Show, even though I'm going to be ridiculously busy tomorrow. So some of this will be pending the outcomes in the Big XI, SEC, and Big XII.

Well, here goes:

1 -- North Carolina
16 -- Mount Saint Mary's/Coppin State
8 -- Mississippi State/Arkansas
9 -- Kent State
4 -- Washington State
13 -- Oral Roberts
5 -- Marquette
12 -- New Mexico
3 -- Wisconsin/Texas**
14 -- Portland State
6 -- West Virginia
11 -- Temple
2 -- Kansas/Wisconsin/Texas**
15 -- Winthrop
7 -- Gonzaga
10 -- Arizona

Kansas win + Wisconsin win -- Kansas is the 1-seed below. Wisconsin is 2 here, Texas is 3.
Kansas win + Wisconsin loss -- Kansas 1, Texas 2, Wisconsin 3.
Texas win -- Texas 1, Kansas 2, Wisconsin 3.

1 -- UCLA
16 -- Mississippi Valley State
8 -- Oklahoma
9 -- Miami (FLA)
4 -- Connecticut
13 -- George Mason
5 -- Indiana
12 -- South Alabama
3 -- Xavier
14 -- Boise State
6 -- Pittsburgh
11 -- UNLV
2 -- Tennessee
15 -- Maryland-Baltimore County
7 -- Davidson
10 -- Baylor

1 -- Memphis
16 -- Northwestern State/Texas-Arlington
8 -- Vanderbilt
9 -- Kansas State
4 -- Michigan State
13 -- Siena
5 -- Butler
12 -- Oregon
3 -- Stanford
14 -- San Diego
6 -- Clemson
11 -- Kentucky
2 -- Georgetown
15 -- Belmont
7 -- Texas A&M
10 -- Illinois State

1 -- Kansas/Texas** (see above)
16 -- American
8 -- BYU
9 -- St. Mary's
4 -- Drake
13 -- Cornell
5 -- Notre Dame
12 -- Saint Joseph's
3 -- Louisville
14 -- Cal State Fullerton
6 -- USC
11 -- Western Kentucky
2 -- Duke
15 -- Austin Peay
7 -- Purdue
10 -- Arkansas/Mississippi State

If Arkansas wins, they're an 8. If they lose, they're a 10.

If Georgia wins, they go where Winthrop is.
If Illinois wins, they go where Cornell is.

If either Georgia or Illinois wins, Oregon is out.
if they both win, New Mexico is out.

Breakdown by conference:

Big East -- 7
Big 12 -- 6
Pac-10 -- 6
SEC -- 5
Big 10 -- 4
ACC -- 4
Mountain West -- 3
Atlantic 14 -- 3
West Coast -- 3
Missouri Valley -- 2
Sun Belt -- 2

We'll see.

I'll have more comments early next week, book deadline permitting.